Crooked Pitch

Today’s pitch count is 15.

1. Closer by committee situations are never good in terms of fantasy baseball. That’s not stopping Tampa Bay from utilizing the strategy while Troy Percival is injured. Last night J.P. Howell got his second save of the year and R.J. Anderson wrote a post yesterday stating that Howell has some pretty exciting numbers. Better numbers in some regards then Papelbon and Rivera, to name a few.
2. You don’t see this very often. Both pitchers in last night’s Cincinnati versus St. Louis game pitched a complete game. Aaron Harang took the loss giving up three earned and striking out four. Chris Carpenter won his fourth game and has an ERA of 0.71 in six starts this season. He’s struck out 31 batters in 38 innings of work and only walked five.
3. David Wright stole his 13th base yesterday and is looking like he’s going wild on the base paths like he did in 2007 when he swiped 34. Unfortunately, he’s only jacked three home runs in the Mets’ new Grand Canyon like ballpark. Wright’s HR/F ratio of 5.8% is miserably low and show rise bringing his home run total up soon. But don’t look for him to approach 30 homers this season. With a hit rate of 44.4% I’m not even sure that his .326 batting average is safe. When his hit rate normalizes back towards his normal 34.7% we might see a huge drop in his average. Consider yourself warned.
4. Andrew McCutchen had a nice major league debut yesterday. He went 2-for-4 scoring three times and stealing a base. He’s owned in 13% of Yahoo! leagues right now but that number is sure to rise shortly. He’s NL-only worthy right now and you may consider taking a mixed-league flier on him too, especially in keeper leagues.

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I don’t cross-post too many of the things I write over at Fanhouse here on this blog. I do that out of courtesy to you guys so you’re not inundated with all the noise I produce. If you want to follow along both here and at Fantasy Fanhouse, please subscribe at both places, you’ll get original content every day.

That being said, there are two things I want you all to be aware of.

1. Today at 1:00 PM ET I’ll be hosting a live fantasy baseball chat at Fanhouse. Please stop by and fire any and all fantasy questions my way.
2. Last night as we were testing Skype connections and such, a few fantasy cram sessions were recorded. This will eventually turn into weekly or even bi-weekly roto podcasts. It also may turn into a Crooked Pitch podcast in the near future. We’ll talk about that later. But, go take a listen to these two cram sessions. We talk Matt Wieters and his trade value, Chris Davis‘ amazing ability to miss baseballs and Juan Pierre.

A NEW website managed by Scott Woodall called WaiverSharks is beginning to find its niche!  WaiverSharks rhyme time mantra is “Deeper Sleepers Better Keepers”

Their most basic theory: Discover today’s best fantasy baseball sleepers, and you will end up with many of tomorrow’s finest fantasy baseball keepers. Keeping you a step ahead of your fantasy baseball league’s competitors means landing an Edinson Volquez before your competition even knowing he has an “N” in his name! The majority of articles WaiverSharks delve into focus on the back end of fantasy baseball drafts, as well as upside prospects that may be on the cusp of breaking through to the MLB Show.

WaiverSharks is introducing TWO new “Fantasy Tools” for 2009: One entails their commitment to perusing the waiver wire for daily hidden gems called The Shallow and The Deep. The other is Fantalytics. A comparison style blog, which analyzes two similarly ranked fantasy baseball combatants, including commentary from both sides – with a “Final Call” made on the player who is the better option for most fantasy teams.

Today, I’m going to run Fantalytics - Volume #3, which pits Cincinnati Reds slugger Joey Votto against Texas Rangers big newcomer - Chris Davis. But, to find out the “Final Call”, you’re going to have to check out WaiverSharks later today!

FANTALYTICS – VOLUME #3

By: WaiverSharks - Adam Forsyth

A pair of talented young bashers indeed, scripts these two new titans of the right-side of the infield against each other in this Special edition of FANTALYTICS.

Votto and Davis maintain an abundance of similarities at first glance:

Both are first basemen, both play half of their games in parks that are considered heavy hitters’ parks, both are considered power-hitters, and both are entering their second season in the big leagues.

Both have also made their way through the minor leagues with considerable success, chipping their way through with indications of what the future will hold.  They both can definitely go yard, and they both have the uncanny ability to drive in runs; Votto, averaging .286-20-86-14 over the last four seasons, while Davis’ average impressed with a .302-25-78-4 line in his three seasons of minor league adjustment. (You’ve heard of a “closer’s run” …that my friends was a “both” run.)

It appears that either Votto or Davis can be depended on to contribute in most statistical categories, and have a positive influence on the resurgence of their struggling clubs.

FANTALYTICS takes this opportunity to break down yet another tough call as we enter cram time for many owners entering their league draft dates.

The Case for Joey Votto
This talented 25-year old Canadian has the goods to consistently hit for power and average, and could be the nation’s next Larry Walker-type talent.  Alright, alright, I’ll try to settle down a bit as Larry’s numbers were out of this world, especially his ballooned statistics from the nine and a half seasons playing with the Rockies at Coors’ Field…I digress.

One way or the other, Joey Votto may be the closest resemblance to the Maple Ridge B.C. product that crazy Canucks have to cheer for since Larry left the game for good in 2005.

A few comforting facts about Votto that he displayed with his bat during his rookie campaign include:

1)    Similar power and average numbers at home compared to on the road.
2)    No huge stretch of time with a slump as he was able to keep a fairly consistent BA and power numbers each and every month.
3)    A good start to the season and a very strong finish show that he didn’t wear down over the course of the long major league season.
4)    And finally, the ability to hit both left handed and right handed pitchers with effectiveness - that didn’t expose any weakness or vulnerability.

Votto shows tremendous upside, extra base power, as well as a dash of presence on the base paths, as he chugged out seven steals to top off a very solid rookie campaign.  Locked in at first base, Votto’s only downfall on the surface may be his defense.  Shaky at times and ranking 6th overall in errors with 11 (Ryan Howard led the MLB with 19 at first base) he is going to have to shore up his ‘D’ in order to be a true full-time force.

I expect J.V. to be able to produce solid numbers for many years to come. While the loss of protection of Adam Dunn late in the season didn’t hurt him, I imagine that it may affect some of the pitches that will come his way in 2009.  Ultimately, Votto is a smart enough batter to adjust with a slight tweak, if anything, and will continue his growth without concern,  .

The Case for Chris Davis
Crush, (as he is affectionately referenced by Texas media) is on a skyward journey to an elite level of MLB power hitters.  Blessed with a crisp, clean and mighty swing, Davis hit round trippers at a torrent pace in his first exposure to major league pitchers.

Davis introduced himself to MLB pitching by pounding out a four-bagger in his first career start (off Phillies reliever Clay Condrey…hey, right that down, it could be a trivia answer one day!)
He followed it up with another dinger off of (the ageless wonder) Jamie Moyer in his next start, only two days later.

Upon finishing his first go’round with 17 long balls in only 295 plate appearances, it doesn’t initially seem like out of this world power; however, this kid can straight up mash.

Look a little deeper and break down his AB’s in order to understand just how much power he has.  In his first 30 appearances he knocked the cover off of the ball, knocking 10 of his season total 17 HR’s.  Oh, and that was in only 89 AB’s, an absurd pace of 1HR/8.9 AB!  He did however cool down, rounding the bases only 7 times through his final 206 AB’s for a more feet on the earth 1HR/29.4 AB.

So, which Davis is the real deal?  We at WaiverSharks.com believe that while it would be unimaginable to maintain a pace of his first 89 AB’s, (projection in 600 AB would be 67 ‘taters…that’s not going to happen) so somewhere in the middle would definitely be a true figure.

Drastic splits of numbers outline that Davis may need to continue some seasoning. Or possibly even share a platoon-type set-up so he doesn’t burn out, or visit the dark streets of “Slumpsville”.

Penciled in as the Texas Rangers everyday first baseman, Davis has the power and ability to hit 35+ homers this season. While this isn’t solely a testament to the park that he plays half of his games in, it’s a tribute to the raw power that is produced by his beastly six-foot four inch, 235 pound frame.

Furthermore, the Rangers line-up from top to bottom certainly has the ability to keep opposing pitchers up late at night - and with the potential in his bat, I definitely expect “Crush” to be a huge contributor to those nightmares.

Now, it’s up to WaiverSharks to give us the answer. To read the exclusive Fantalytics “Final Call” Check out WaiverSharks today!

It’s already February, pitchers and catchers reporting is just around the corner, football season is over… it’s time to get serious about fantasy baseball.

This Average Draft Position report is an interesting one. In January we saw some lists with big, BIG movers. Todays list can be described with one word; normalization. Over the past week at Mock Draft Central no player had a double digit (percentage wise) move in either direction of their ADP. To me this means that fantasy GM’s are calming down with their shuffling of players on their ranking lists for a while. This is typical as the lists in January needed some tweaking, but now that the tweaking is done, things should stay pretty similar until Spring Training gets going. As Spring Training progresses, the ADP charts will come alive again with rapid and dramatic risers and droppers.

Headed Up

• Hanley Ramirez | Florida Marlins | +7.4% - The rich get richer. Ramirez has been in the top spot for a while now. What this jump means is that more and more fantasy GM’s are agreeing that Hanley is the best selection in this draft. His ADP is 1.35, which is up from 1.45 last week.
• Chase Utley | Philadelphia Phillies | +7.2% - Utley is moving up the ADP ranks quickly as fears of his injured hip subside. He’s being taken in the early to middle second round (17.21 ADP) instead of the middle of the round (18.45 ADP) last week.
• Brandon Lyon | Detroit Tigers | +6.1% - Lyon signed with the Tigers last week and hasn’t been given the closers job, but will compete for it against Fernando Rodney in Spring Training. Lyon’s ADP rose from 290.88 to just inside a 23-round draft at 274.10.
• Ubaldo Jimenez | Colorado Rockies | +5.6% - This 25-year-old just inked a new deal and is a solid last round flier for strikeouts and wins in a mixed-league. His ADP rose from 285.63 to a 23rd round 270.55.
• Chris Davis | Texas Rangers | +4.7% - Whether it’s third base or first base, fantasy GM’s don’t care. Davis belted 17 home runs in 295 at-bats last season and his sleeper status is still skyrocketing. His ADP is a 6th round 68.67, up from last weeks 71.89.
• Scott Baker | Minnesota Twins | +3.8% - 27-year-old baker struck out 141 last season and won 11 games in 28 starts. He’s being taken in the 19th round (228.01 ADP) now instead of the 20th round (236.62 ADP) last week.

Other notables: Andy Pettitte (+7.5%) and Dustin Pedroia (+4.5%)

Headed Down

• Troy Glaus | St. Louis Cardinals | -7.9% - Glaus had shoulder surgery and could miss up to three months. This has dropped him out of most mixed-league drafts (293.80 ADP), down from an ADP of 270.46.
• David Wright | New York Mets | -3.7% - Before you go crazy, this drop has nothing to do with Wrights ability as a fantasy stud. It’s simply a matter of numbers. If one elite stud risings big, other elite studs need to drop. Hanley Ramirez’ huge rise last week caused Wright to fall to an ADP of 4.34 from 4.18.
• Albert Pujols | St. Louis Cardinals | -3.4% - See David Wright above. Pujols dropped from 2.88 ADP to 2.98 ADP. This isn’t a big deal at all.
• Chris Volstad | Florida Marlins | -2.9% - Volstad is a solid late round sleeper pick. This is an interesting drop in perceived fantasy value here. He went from an ADP of 270.37 to 278.55.
• A.J. Burnett | New York Yankees | -2.6% - Is this the beginning of a lot of fantasy GM’s fearing that Burnett’s injury woes are not behind him? His ADP dropped to a 9th round 99.55 from 96.99.
• Brad Ziegler | Oakland Athletics | -1.9% - Ziegler and Devine are both in the running to become the A’s new closer. This makes it look like people are starting to think that Devine is in the drivers seat. Zieglers ADP dropped to 219.16 from 217.62 while Joey Devine has an ADP of 191.02.

Other notables: Prince Fiedler (-3.1%), Rafael Furcal (-2.6%), Ian Kinsler (-2.5%) and Matt Cain (-1.2%)

I’m still catching up here on publishing the commentary from each selection in our slow mock draft. Take a look back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2,  round 3, round 4, and round 5.

• Round 6 : Pick 1(61) - @seniorcircuit - Geovany Soto - After the elite catchers were off the board I was surprised that Soto was still there for me. I don’t mind taking a catcher early, especially in 2 catcher leagues. Who even started the 2 catcher policy? I can see Soto make a slight regression as pitchers get used to seeing him but will still put up quality numbers from the catchers spot.  I project Soto at 70/22/85/.275
• Round 6 : Pick 2(62) - @jasoncollette - Chris Davis - This was going to be Votto’s spot but alas, someone loves him more than I do. I saw Davis go in the 5th round of the MLB expert draft I’m doing and at this rate,  he’s going to go in a 4th round by March. He will hit behind Kinsler, Young, Hamilton, and Cruz so there is plenty of potential for 35 homers, 100+ RBI, but anything over .265 is a bonus.
• Round 6 : Pick 3(63) - @dowdyism - Stephen Drew -He has the bloodlines, and 2008 saw the breakout of Stephen Drew. I was looking for either Drew or Geovany Soto on the turn, and once Soto was gone, it was an easy decision.  I missed out on the 2B run, so I wanted to be sure to get good production from SS. Last years numbers are a good baseline on what I expect in 2009.
• Round 6 : Pick 4(64) - @therotofeed - Hunter Pence - I think this is the year before the breakout year for Pence, which should still come out rather nicely. I’m guessing he won’t be as much of a feast and famine guy this year and I’m hunting for 90/30/90.
• Round 6 : Pick 5(65) - @sporer - Robinson Cano -I was ready to take Cano when I took Granderson so I’m pleased to see him fall another round to me. In a tough season, he still put a pretty usable line at second base. I expect a much better season in the area of 2007’s breakout campaign. The lineup in New York is still excellent meaning the R & RBI numbers will be plentiful and he should have a better batting average (nearing .300) if he can avoid hitting .242 for a half as in 2008.  I’m predicting a bounce back season for Cano and I’m happy to get him in the 6th.
• Round 6 : Pick 6(66) - @tommystv - Shane Victorino - Victorino was the last top 50 player I had on my board still remaining. Although I do watch for value players slipping I like to justify a need before I pull the trigger. I needed to address steals at some point and this is a value you pick almost 3 rds beyond where he skill set justified him going. I’d love to see that little bit of pop he had last year continue.
• Round 6 : Pick 7(67) - @xxldaddyo - Cliff Lee -I already took the best Catcher in baseball (Brian McCann) in the 4th Round so why not pare him up with the best Starting Pitcher in baseball last year: AL Cy Young winner Cliff Lee. Lee’s breakout year reminds me eerily of Chris Carpenters breakout season in 2004. Both were 29 when they came into their own and while it may not be reasonable to expect Lee to match last years SICK numbers, if he does 90% of that? I’d be a happy man.
• Round6 : Pick 8(68) - @jefeboy - Carlos Delgado -At this point I just needed power, and chose Delgado over Dunn because I think their HR totals will be in the same ballpark but Delgado should hurt my BA less.
• Round 6 : Pick 9(69) - @fakebaseball - Bobby Abreu -My pick of Bobby Abreu is an example of going with your rankings even though you dislike the player, and there are sexier picks on the board ahead of him. I have .285/16-18 HR/20 SB penciled in for Abreu, with a goodly amount of runs driven in and scored, because chances are wherever he lands (Cincinnati, perhaps?), he’ll be put in the middle of the order (regardless of whether or not he deserves it at this stage of his career). I fully recognize he’s a risk because he’s getting to the age where a precipitous decline can happen at any time, but I’ll take the risk, and the SBs, so I won’t have to suffer with “cheap speed” options later.
• Round 6 : Pick 10(70) - @TheRoundtable - Magglio Ordonez - I’m actually kicking myself because I missed the run on second basemen, so decided to fill in the outfield with who I feel is best available there at this point. The other positions seem relatively similar across the board over the next few players. Ordonez’s power numbers might be slightly down, but since his two-year injury run, he’s been healthy and providing good numbers for that Tigers offense. This is a guy that I have ranked in my top-50 (granted the end of it) that I was able to grab with pick 70.
• Round 6 : Pick 11(71) - @Angels2717 - Joe Nathan -Some might not think of taking Nathan as the first overall closer. But I believe this year, he will prove he is one of the best is not the best at his position. He has one of the lowest ERA’s of closers and is almost perfect on save oppurtunities. He has been very consistent throughout the past couple of years. No, he might not be the highest strikeout guy, but you don’t take closers just for their strikeouts.
• Round 6 : Pick 12(72) - @crookedpitch - Ryan Ludwick - I don’t expect Ludwick to approach a .300 batting average again in 2009. However, I do feel that 30 homers and 100 RBI are a distinct possibility. How could I pass up those numbers in the 6th round? Plus, it does sort of fit in with my power hitters theme that I’ve got going on.

It’s time for another installment of the biggest risers from an Average Draft Position standpoint. We’ll look at the hitters in this post. This data, as always, is tabulated over at Mock Draft Central.

1. Jeff Baker | Colorado Rockies | +56.2% - Baker hit 12 home runs in 299 at-bats last season but is still locked in a position battle with Clint Barmes. The Rockies decided not to go after Orlando Hudson this week, giving Barmes and Baker “a legitimate opportunity” at second base. By the looks of Bakers rising ADP it seems that mock draft participants feel that Baker’s power potential will win out against Barmes’ speed. Baker’s ADP rose from 428.08 into the 23rd round at 274.01.
2. Cody Ross | Florida Marlins | +22.7% - In Ross’s first year as a full-time player he hit 22 home runs in 461 at-bats. He’s slated as the starting left fielder going into 2009 but it could be some new BPA revelations that might be driving his value up. Ross’s ADP rose from 301.93 into the 21st round at 246.09.
3. Jerry Hairston | Cincinnati Reds | +19.8% - Hairston recently resigned with the Reds as an uber-utility man. I’ve seen reports he’ll start as shortstop until Alex Gonzalez is ready. And I’ve seen reports that he’ll be an every day left fiedler. Wherevr he plays, Hairston has value due to his eligibility at second base, short stop and outfield. Don’t forget that he also hit .326 last season in 261 at-bats before going down with injuries. Hairston’s ADP rose from 307.10 into the 22nd round at 256.43.
4. Matt Wieters | Baltimore Orioles | +15.4% - Bill James has projected Wieters to hit 24 home runs and bat .311 in his rookie campaign. Those are huge numbers for a guy who has never seen a pitch above Double-A. Wieters ADP rose from a 13th round 149.94 to an 11th round 125.89 on that very extreme upside potential.
5. Nelson Cruz | Texas Rangers | + 15.1% - In 115 at-bats last season, Cruz hit seven home runs and batted .330. This has fueled projections of Cruz hitting 25+ in 2009 with 20+ stolen bases to boot. These projections plus his seven dingers from last season are the reason Cruz is one of the biggest “sleepers” going into the ‘09 season. His ADP has risen from a 13th round 151.63 to an 11th round 131.79.

Other notables: Willy Taveras (+14.5%), Chase Utley (+14.9%), Mike Napoli (+13.5%), Chris Davis (+12.0%), Miguel Olivo (+11.5%), and Jose Lopez (+11.0%).

There has been more shuffling going on in the Texas Rangers infield lately than in a Las Vegas poker room. Michael Young is moving to third base. Highly touted youngster Chris Davis is moving over to first base. Nobody knows if Hank Blalock is going to DH, platoon, or ride the pine. And finally, Elvis Andrus is the heir apparent at short stop.

But, before you re-write all these names in ink, take a look at Justin Smoak.

Now that the third base situation is finally in hand, maybe Chris Davis can now relax and settle in at first base, right?

Not so fast. It would behoove Davis not to sign a long-term lease at first. Justin Smoak is coming and coming fast, from all reports. Most speculation has him arriving by 2010 and with his reputation as a smooth glove man, as well as a terrific hitter, Davis will likely be on the move again very soon.

Justin Smoak was the 11th pick of the 2008 draft to the Rangers after belting 17 home runs in 2006 and 22 home runs in 2007 for the South Carolina Gamecocks. He only played in 14 Single-A games last year but hit .304 with three home runs in his first 56 professional at-bats. He really wowed the Arizona Fall League by hitting .352 in 51 at-bats with four doubles and two home runs.

Before everyone starts adding Smoak to their draft sheets, slow down and realize that he’ll, most likely, spend most of, if not the entire, 2009 in the minors. Davis will have the entire season to show everyone if his torrid 2008 run was real or a fluke. It won’t be until 2010 that the Rangers have to answer tough questions about what to do with Smoak. And Davis’ 2009 numbers will play a large part in determining that answer.

Smoak’s only fantasy impact for 2009 should be in leagues that utilize minor league systems.

To get a better grip on just who Justin Smoak is, take a look at these other posts:

• Keith Law puts Smoak up against some pretty stiff prospect talent.
• The Diamond Cutter tells us just what kind of hitter Smoak is.
• John Sickels ranks Smoak as the  Rangers #2 prospect.