Crooked Pitch

Pitchers and catchers are reporting this week. That makes this the perfect time to start working on the rankings for starting pitchers.

Today, let’s look at the top ten:

1. Tim Lincecum | San Francisco Giants - The real question at the top of the starting pitcher rankings is who to rank #1 between Lincecum and Santana. I like Lincecum to win strikeouts and ERA and Santana to get more wins and have a better WHIP. I’m giving Lincecum the nod here as I think he crushed Santana in strikeouts and the other three categories are relatively similar.
2. Johan Santana | New York Mets - I must be crazy to rank a guy #2 when I feel he’ll lead the league in wins, strike out 200+ and lead all starting pitchers in WHIP. Call me crazy, I just think Lincecum is a little more special.
3. C.C. Sabathia | New York Yankees - I like Sabathia to be a top three starting pitcher in wins and to keep his WHIP under 1.20 and strike out close to 200. I do worry about his return to the American League though.
4. Cole Hamels | Philadelphia Phillies - Hamels will finish just behind Sabathis in wins, strikeouts and ERA but actually might have more upside. His fabulous post-season performance last season should give him a huge shot of confidence going into ‘09.
5. Roy Halladay | Toronto Blue Jays - Halladay’s K/9 spiked dramatically last season; a trend that will probably normalize in ‘09. He won’t win 20 again, his numbers will still be very ace-like.
6. Brandon Webb | Arizona Diamondbacks - Webb is the model of consistency here. He’s gone five years in a row with over 200 innings pitched and 30 starts. You know exactly what you’re going ot get when you grab Webb.
7. Jake Peavy | San Diego Padres - If there was a dropoff point among the starting pitchers (read: tier) this would be the first one. Peavy isn’t the same pitcher he used to be (which is hard to say about a 27-year-old), but you can still count on a sub 3.50 ERA, double digit wins and almost 200 strikeouts.
8. Dan Haren | Arizona Diamondbacks - Haren gives the Diamondbacks what might be the best one-two punch in baseball on the mound. He’s been trending wonderfully with his strikeout totals, WHIP and win totals. He may not even be done improving.
9. Roy Oswalt | Houston Astros - It seemed like everything that was hit in the air against Oswalt in the first half of last season left the ballpark. He corrected that in the second half and returned to the premium pitcher we all knew he could be. Don’t pay for second half numbers, but realize that he’s a 15-win guy who will stay well below the 4.00 ERA mark.
10. James Shields | Tampa Bay Rays - Shields has grown as a pitcher in each of the last two seasons and does just about everything well. At age 27, expect another growth year in ‘09.

I’m still catching up here on publishing the commentary from each selection in our slow mock draft. Take a look back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2,  round 3, and round 4.

• Round 5 : Pick 1(49) - @crookedpitch - David Ortiz - I know that Papi is getting older and his injury is still of concern, but with the 49th pick I’m willing to gamble that he’ll return to 30 home run form and post triple digit RBI. That Red Sox lineup is stacked. A healthy Ortiz can’t help but flourish.
• Round 5 : Pick 2(50) - @Angels2717 - Joe Mauer - In a two catcher league, you have to go for a catcher earlier than usual.  And what better way to have a great catcher in Joe Mauer.  He’ll hit over.300 and add in a bunch of everything: power and some speed.  After 5 catchers or so are drafted you get into the next tier of catchers which has a substantial drop in value.  This one pick was easy for me.
• Round 5 : Pick 3(51) - @TheRoundtable - Derrek Lee - I really debated on whether or not to take Lee or to go with Dan Uggla, but I’m a sucker for anyone that looks like T-Rex from Mr. 3000. Something like that. Lee’s consistent, and, again, that’s what I want out of my early picks. He’l hit right around .300, provide around 25-30 home runs, and drive in runs for that Cubs team. He hasn’t been the same since he was injured in 2006, but you can hardly call the steady production a true drop. I’m convinced this is about where he should go, and I got decent value on the pick. Given the talent left at other positions, I can start to line those up knowing my corners are solid.
• Round 5 : Pick 4(52) - @fakebaseball - Dan Uggla - I was afraid I was reaching a bit taking Uggla in the fifth round, but I doubt he would have made it back to me at the end of the sixth, and second base is pretty weak after you get through the early rounds. I’m hoping for another .250-.260/30 HR/100 RBI season, which would give me a strong foundation from my middle infield (pairing Uggla with my Reyes pick in round one). His streaky hitting isn’t as hard to stomach in a roto league like this as it would be in a head-to-head league. I’ll have to keep an eye on the batting average category going forward, though.
• Round 5 : Pick 5(53) - @jefeboy - Joey Votto - Not my 1st choice at 1B, but with McCann and Martin gone Votto was my best IF choice. I like the average, and I can only hope his power surges a bit. He looked great in the 2nd half of 08. And the handful of SBs doesn’t hurt. Was very tempted to add a second ace SP here, but I’d be at too much of an offensive disadvantage.
• Round 5 : Pick 6(54) - @xxldaddyo - Corey Hart -Yet another 30/30/.300 hitter. Think of him as the “poor mans” Grady Sizemore. He actually hit MORE flyballs in the 2H last year, but fewer of them went over the fence. That my friends is an anomaly that will correct itself. Plus? It’s just so damn fun to watch Bernie Brewer come down the slide at Miller Park every time Corey goes yard.
• Round 5 : Pick 7(55) - @tommystv - Alexei Ramirez - Best MI on the board, took him right where I hoped I could, don’t think I could’ve waited any longer. If you eliminate his slow start he had a 2nd round type season last year.
• Round 5 : Pick 8(56) - @sporer - Curtis Granderson - Anyone that knows me knows that there is no surprise with the Granderson pick.  He’s my favorite player in the league hands down.  But thankfully it works out that picking my favorite player is also a huge benefit to my team.  Granderson didn’t run much last year and speculation has been rampant as to why, but regardless the reason I can’t envision Leyland not giving him the green light all season in 2009.  He should coast to a .285-100-20-70-20 season with his upside approaching the 30-30 realm.
• Round 5 : Pick 9(57) - @therotofeed - Jake Peavy - I don’t love taking pitchers before the sixth round in a snake draft. But when Jake Peavy is still sitting there at pick #57, it’s probably time to grab him at a nice discount. No doubt, Peavy’s coming off some injuries playing for a lousy team. But he’s only 27 and we’ve seen super-elite skills very recently from him.  I don’t see any batters with super-elite potential left on the board. And I smell another pitching run brewing.
• Round 5 : Pick 10(58) - @dowdyism - Cole Hamels - I am very pleasantly surprised that Cole Hamels fell to me at the back of the 5th round.  I rank him right up there with C.C. Sabathia in the group behind Johan Santana and Tim Lincecum.  His workload has increased each of the past three years, so there is a belief that he is now a greater injury risk, but his numbers are rock-solid, and that’s what I am looking for in a fantasy ace.
• Round 5 : Pick 11(59) - @jasoncollette - Jacoby Ellsbury - With that pick, I’m done drafting steals for quite some time. He is only a 3 category playe but he has the potential to max out in those three categories which is why he is enticing.
• Round 5 : Pick 12(60) - @seniorcircuit - Chipper Jones -I know, I know, he’s an injury risk, I get that. I needed some power at third base after the dependable guys were off the board. Every year he gets hurt but you can’t ignore the fact that over the last 3 years he has hit at least .320 when he is healthy. His power numbers are coming down but that is the result of him not playing a full season. If he plays in 130-150 games I would count on 85/30/100/5/.325 but realistically you should expect 70/25/85/5/.330

Here are the fantasy baseball rankings for the top ten starting pitchers for the 2008 season. I will also list the predictions from the pre-season at the bottom of this post for comparison.

1. Roy Halladay, Toronto Blue Jays - Halladay was one of four pitchers to win 20 games and was one of ten to strike out 200 or more hitters. He also finished second the league with nine complete games. 20 Wins | 206 K’s | 2.78 ERA | 1.05 WHIP
   
2. Cliff Lee, Cleveland Indians - His 22 wins were 17 more than his win total from 2007. He also cut his ERA in half and then some. 22 Wins | 170 K’s | 2.54 ERA | 1.11 WHIP
3. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants - Lincecum led the league in strikeouts and was in the top seven in wins pitching for a team with only 72 wins. 18 Wins | 265 K’s | 2.62 ERA | 1.17 WHIP
4. C.C. Sabathia, Milwaukee Brewers - The move to Milwaukee was the best thing to happen to Sabathia as his ERA dropped from 3.83 to 1.65 and his win total skyrocketed. 17 Wins | 251 K’s | 2.70 ERA | 1.11 WHIP
5. Johan Santana, New York Mets - No pitcher received more off-season hype last year than Santana. And while he seemed to accumulate strong stats quietly during the season, these numbers truly do shout that Santana is among the leagues best pitchers. 16 Wins | 206 K’s | 2.53 ERA | 1.15 WHIP
6. Ryan Dempster, Chicago Cubs - Dempster finished tenth in the league in ERA among starters with at least 100 innings of work. He was also 12th in strikeouts. Not bad for a guy who wasn’t a top notch reliever. 17 Wins | 187 K’s | 2.96 ERA | 1.21 WHIP
7. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies - Hamels might have lost ten times in 2008, but his ERA was on the very low side of 3.00 and his strikeouts almost hit the 200 mark. 14 wins isn’t too shabby either. 14 Wins | 196 K’s | 3.09 ERA | 1.08 WHIP
8. Dan Haren, Arizona Diamondbacks - Haren faded a little bit in the second half but his 200+ strikeouts, monster WHIP, and win total force him to be added to this list. 16 Wins | 206 K’s | 3.33 ERA | 1.13 WHIP
9. Rich Harden, Chicago Cubs - Harden’s inclusion here was a tough choice for me. On one hand he only started 25 games and pitched 148.0 innings. On the other hand he led the league in ERA, was in the top three in WHIP, and in the top 20 in strikeouts. 10 Wins | 181 K’s | 2.07 ERA | 1.06 WHIP
10. Brandon Webb, Arizona Diamondbacks - It was almost impossible to leave the MLB wins leader off this top ten list. If not for a rough June we might be talking Cy Young. 22 Wins | 183 K’s | 3.30 ERA | 1.20 WHIP

Below are the pre-season starting pitcher rankings.

2008 American League Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Rankings

1. Josh Beckett | Boston Red Sox
2. C.C. Sabathia | Cleveland Indians
3. Erik Bedard | Baltimore Orioles
4. Justin Verlander | Detroit Tigers
5. Scott Kazmir | Tampa Bay Rays
6. John Lackey | Los Angeles Angels
7. Felix Hernandez | Seattle Mariners
8. Roy Halladay | Toronto Blue Jays
9. Daisuke Matsuzaka | Boston Red Sox
10. James Shields | Tampa Bay Rays
11. Fausto Carmona | Cleveland Indians
12. Javier Vazquez | Chicago White Sox
13. Kelvim Escobar | Los Angeles Angels
14. A.J. Burnett | Toronto Blue Jays
15. Chien-Ming Wang | New York Yankees
16. Francisco Liriano | Minnesota Twins
17. Jered Weaver | Los Angeles Angels
18. Joe Blanton | Oakland Athletics
19. Jeremy Bonderman | Detroit Tigers
20. Curt Schilling | Boston Red Sox

2008 National League Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Rankings

1. Johan Santana | New York Mets
2. Jake Peavy | San Diego Padres
3. Brandon Webb | Arizona Diamondbacks
4. Cole Hamels | Philadelphia Phillies
5. Dan Haren | Arizona Diamondbacks
6. Aaron Harang | Cincinnati Reds
7. Carlos Zambrano | Chicago Cubs
8. Roy Oswalt | Houston Astros
9. John Smoltz | Atlanta Braves
10. Chris Young | San Diego Padres
11. Brett Myers | Philadelphia Phillies
12. Ben Sheets | Milwaukee Brewers
13. Matt Cain | San Francisco Giants
14. Rich Hill | Chicago Cubs
15. Brad Penny | Los Angeles Dodgers
16. Yovani Gallardo | Milwaukee Brewers
17. Jeff Francis | Colorado Rockies
18. Ted Lilly | Chicago Cubs
19. Tim Lincecum | San Francisco Giants
20. Tim Hudson | Atlanta Braves