Crooked Pitch

Today’s pitch count is 10.

1. For the second straight time Rich Harden walked more hitters then he struck out Wednesday night. In those two games he’s given up nine earned runs in 10.1 innings. In related news, Harden hasn’t won a game sine May 12th.
2. David Ortiz hit another home run on Wednesday night. He has three over his last seven games and is batting .363 over that same time period.
3. The Phillies bullpen screwed Joe Blanton big time on Wednesday.  Blanton struck out ten and walked two over seven innings and only gave up two earned runs. On the other hand J.C. Romero and Chan Ho Park combined to give up five earned runs in the final two innings. Blanton has pitched well as of late. Over his last seven starts he’s 3-1 with a 3.42 ERA and 44 strikeouts with ten walks.

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All year long I’ll be offering help just like this in The Fantasy Inbox. Use the contact form to submit all your fantasy baseball questions and please give me as many details as you can. Including league format, roster sizes, and scoring settings will help me give you the best advice.

Today’s question come from Jon and it’s always a pleasure to answer any kind of baseball questions from you guys. Keep ‘em coming.

Q: I was offered Cliff Lee and Shane Victorino in exchange for Dan Haren and Raul Ibanez. Here are my reasons for being hesitant about Lee. His spring was AWFUL and last season was his best by far(possible fluke season??). I like him beacause his numbers were better than Haren’s , but Haren has steadily been on a climb and he is one Webb injury away from being the ace of the staff. What should I do??? Please help!!!

A: I think that you’re right to be hesitant about this deal, but maybe not for the reasons you mentioned. Yes, Cliff Lee’s ERA is a miserable 12.46 this spring, but pitchers tend to work on using different pitches in spring. Sometimes they spend a few innings just throwing breaking balls. It’s hard to gauge how good a pitcher’s spring is going by his ERA alone. Take a look at Lee’s strikeout to walk ratio. In 21.2 innings he’s struck out 18 while only walking two. That’s pretty dominant. The thing about Lee that worries me is his innings workload from 2008, which grew 80 innings from the previous year. I’m expecting Lee to still produce good numbers in 2009, but he won’t be back at the Cy Young level he achieved in 2008. Haren on the other hand excites me; and remember, he doesn’t need to be Arizona’s ace to be your fantasy ace. Haren has steadily increased his strikeout numbers while lowering his WHIP over the past three years. He pitches in a weak division with a bunch of pitchers parks. I definitely like Haren better than Lee going into 2009.

Victorino would be a slight upgrade from Ibanez, but it’s not enough to off-set how much better Haren could be than Lee. Victorino and Ibanez both have similar batting averages (both hit .293 in ‘08) but Ibanez has better power numbers. Yeah, you’ll get stolen bases from Victorino, a few extra runs scored and some pop, but the difference between the two just isn’t enough for me to advise pulling the trigger on this deal.

My opinion would be to decline this offer. With Haren and Ibanez you have to great, very consistently stable players. And Haren’s upside is the best of the bunch.

Pitchers and catchers are reporting this week. That makes this the perfect time to start working on the rankings for starting pitchers.

Today, let’s look at the top ten:

1. Tim Lincecum | San Francisco Giants - The real question at the top of the starting pitcher rankings is who to rank #1 between Lincecum and Santana. I like Lincecum to win strikeouts and ERA and Santana to get more wins and have a better WHIP. I’m giving Lincecum the nod here as I think he crushed Santana in strikeouts and the other three categories are relatively similar.
2. Johan Santana | New York Mets - I must be crazy to rank a guy #2 when I feel he’ll lead the league in wins, strike out 200+ and lead all starting pitchers in WHIP. Call me crazy, I just think Lincecum is a little more special.
3. C.C. Sabathia | New York Yankees - I like Sabathia to be a top three starting pitcher in wins and to keep his WHIP under 1.20 and strike out close to 200. I do worry about his return to the American League though.
4. Cole Hamels | Philadelphia Phillies - Hamels will finish just behind Sabathis in wins, strikeouts and ERA but actually might have more upside. His fabulous post-season performance last season should give him a huge shot of confidence going into ‘09.
5. Roy Halladay | Toronto Blue Jays - Halladay’s K/9 spiked dramatically last season; a trend that will probably normalize in ‘09. He won’t win 20 again, his numbers will still be very ace-like.
6. Brandon Webb | Arizona Diamondbacks - Webb is the model of consistency here. He’s gone five years in a row with over 200 innings pitched and 30 starts. You know exactly what you’re going ot get when you grab Webb.
7. Jake Peavy | San Diego Padres - If there was a dropoff point among the starting pitchers (read: tier) this would be the first one. Peavy isn’t the same pitcher he used to be (which is hard to say about a 27-year-old), but you can still count on a sub 3.50 ERA, double digit wins and almost 200 strikeouts.
8. Dan Haren | Arizona Diamondbacks - Haren gives the Diamondbacks what might be the best one-two punch in baseball on the mound. He’s been trending wonderfully with his strikeout totals, WHIP and win totals. He may not even be done improving.
9. Roy Oswalt | Houston Astros - It seemed like everything that was hit in the air against Oswalt in the first half of last season left the ballpark. He corrected that in the second half and returned to the premium pitcher we all knew he could be. Don’t pay for second half numbers, but realize that he’s a 15-win guy who will stay well below the 4.00 ERA mark.
10. James Shields | Tampa Bay Rays - Shields has grown as a pitcher in each of the last two seasons and does just about everything well. At age 27, expect another growth year in ‘09.

I’m way behind here on publishing the commentary from each selection in our slow mock draft. To refresh your memory, go back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2, and round 3.

• Round 4 : Pick 1(37) - @seniorcircuit - C.C. Sabathia - I was surprised and pleased to find Sabathia still on the board as my pick, for the beginning of the 4th round.  He was the 3rd pitcher taken overall behind Santana and Lincecum, which was different than the outcome of the poll on crookedpitch.com, asking who should be the first pitcher taken in drafts, found here. I have faith in him being a workhorse this season and settling into the role as ace of the Yankees, there shouldn’t be any need for him to worry about getting traded.  Sabathia will put up 18-20 wins, 3.40 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and well over 200 strikeouts.  I am also continuing my personal run of drafting players that are on brand new teams with huge contracts.
• Round 4 : Pick 2(38) - @jasoncollette - Alex Rios - I called him as a 30/30 guy for the Fanball magazine so I’m putting my money where my mouth is. Look at the difference last year once the Jays brought Gaston in and got rid of Dembo’s hitting instruction.
• Round 4 : Pick 3(39) - @dowdyism - Ichiro Suzuki -It had been all power, all the time for my team up to this point.  It was time to get some steals in the mix, and Ichiro is the perfect fit in the fourth round.  He has been a model of consistency since entering the league, and 100 runs and a high AVG will compliment his stolen base output quite nicely.
• Round 4 : Pick 4(40) - @therotofeed - Nate McClouth - After passing on the likes of Braun and Longoria during earlier rounds in favor of players with slightly longer fantasy track records, I went ahead and took Nate McLouth with my fourth pick.  I tend to try to take “boring” picks with my first three picks in a snake draft, looking for reliability above all. By the time I get to round four, though, it’s time to seek some upside. And I think McLouth will have an even better year than last year.
• Round 4 : Pick 5(41) - @sporer - Kevin Youkilis -Here is why I don’t think the 13 home run increase from Youk was a fluke: his walk rate fell by 3% and I believe a lot of that was him going for solid pitches that he ended up being able to do a lot with earlier in the count. Known as the Greek God of Walks, I think in past seasons he was waiting for the perfect pitch or just taking a walk. To wit, he had 15 home runs after a 1-0 count against just seven in 2007. I feel like another 25+ home run season rests on Youk’s shoulders as he decides whether or not he wants to take that approach again this season. As part of that lineup, his counting stats will be excellent as well. Throw in mixed eligibility at 1B/3B and I’m pleased to land him here in the 3rd.
• Round 4 : Pick 6(42) - @tommystv - Vladimir Guerrero -I’ll admit I’m an Angels fan, and I became an Angels fan because of Vlad. With that being said, there is no one in the last seven picks that I would value more than Vlad. If Sabathia or Lincecum would have fallen I may have gone pitcher and Ichiro I would have viewed as equal, and would have been happy to maybe make a solid move on steals. Could have gone Ordonez or maybe McCann, but I’m feling good about Vlad falling to the middle of the 4th. .300 and around 30 HRs, lock it up.
• Round 4 : Pick 7(43) - @xxldaddyo - Brian McCann -Ya gotta have a catcher (or two) so why not take the best hitting catcher in all of baseball? McCann cut down on his K’s in the 2H last year while increasing his walks. Forget the 23 HR and .301 BA of last year. I’ll pencil him in for 26 HR and .310 in ‘09.
• Round 4 : Pick 8(44) - @jefeboy - Rafael Furcal -Was considering 3 players at this spot — Youkilis as the best remaining 1B, McCann as the #1 C and Furcal as the best remaining SS. The choice was simplified by my opponents. Staying with the IF strategy, gotta love the potential for contributions in 4 categories from SS. Shandler loves him this year and I love Shandler.
• Round 4 : Pick 9(45) - @fakebaseball - Dan Haren -I’ll probably be accused of reaching, but I feel that my fourth-round selection, Dan Haren, stands a good chance of matching the fantasy value of–or even outperforming–Webb, Halladay, Hamels, and Peavy in ‘09. I believe Haren will match or exceed 3.50 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 8 K/9, with an impressive win total. It can be intimidating to go against the collective wisdom of average draft position when you are significantly more positive or more negative on a player, but it’s hard to win without taking risks.
• Round 4 : Pick 10(46) - @TheRoundtable - Brandon Webb -I won’t lie to you, this goes against my personal philosophy of not drafting pitching in the first five rounds, but I’m looking at value here. Webb has been going in the third round of most drafts, and getting him towards the end of the fourth is solid value. He’s going to be close to 20 wins, is consistently around a 3.20 ERA and keep his WHIP sub-1.25 (my threshold for top pitching). I just didn’t like the options available at some of the other positions as far as grabbing them here. There are others on my radar, but I think they’ll be around on the swing and in round six as well.
• Round 4 : Pick 11(47) - @Angels2717 - Roy Halladay -I am very happy to be able to get a solid pitcher in the late 4th round.  Halladay is one of those guys you love to have as your number one pitcher on a fantasy team. I like his high strikeout capability and 17+ win capability. Glad to be able to draft him at this point.
• Round 4 : Pick 12(48) - @crookedpitch - Russell Martin - If at all possible, I wanted to grab one of the big four catchers (McCann, Martin, Soto & Mauer). Martin’s ADP is 43.4, so this is a pretty good spot to grab him. McCann already went, so the run on catchers will shortly follow (most likely accentuated by my pick here). I actually like Martin’s fantasy value better than McCann’s. McCann has more pop, but Martin’s stolen base potential and multi-position eligibility make him a more valuable fantasy option.

Here are the fantasy baseball rankings for the top ten starting pitchers for the 2008 season. I will also list the predictions from the pre-season at the bottom of this post for comparison.

1. Roy Halladay, Toronto Blue Jays - Halladay was one of four pitchers to win 20 games and was one of ten to strike out 200 or more hitters. He also finished second the league with nine complete games. 20 Wins | 206 K’s | 2.78 ERA | 1.05 WHIP
   
2. Cliff Lee, Cleveland Indians - His 22 wins were 17 more than his win total from 2007. He also cut his ERA in half and then some. 22 Wins | 170 K’s | 2.54 ERA | 1.11 WHIP
3. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants - Lincecum led the league in strikeouts and was in the top seven in wins pitching for a team with only 72 wins. 18 Wins | 265 K’s | 2.62 ERA | 1.17 WHIP
4. C.C. Sabathia, Milwaukee Brewers - The move to Milwaukee was the best thing to happen to Sabathia as his ERA dropped from 3.83 to 1.65 and his win total skyrocketed. 17 Wins | 251 K’s | 2.70 ERA | 1.11 WHIP
5. Johan Santana, New York Mets - No pitcher received more off-season hype last year than Santana. And while he seemed to accumulate strong stats quietly during the season, these numbers truly do shout that Santana is among the leagues best pitchers. 16 Wins | 206 K’s | 2.53 ERA | 1.15 WHIP
6. Ryan Dempster, Chicago Cubs - Dempster finished tenth in the league in ERA among starters with at least 100 innings of work. He was also 12th in strikeouts. Not bad for a guy who wasn’t a top notch reliever. 17 Wins | 187 K’s | 2.96 ERA | 1.21 WHIP
7. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies - Hamels might have lost ten times in 2008, but his ERA was on the very low side of 3.00 and his strikeouts almost hit the 200 mark. 14 wins isn’t too shabby either. 14 Wins | 196 K’s | 3.09 ERA | 1.08 WHIP
8. Dan Haren, Arizona Diamondbacks - Haren faded a little bit in the second half but his 200+ strikeouts, monster WHIP, and win total force him to be added to this list. 16 Wins | 206 K’s | 3.33 ERA | 1.13 WHIP
9. Rich Harden, Chicago Cubs - Harden’s inclusion here was a tough choice for me. On one hand he only started 25 games and pitched 148.0 innings. On the other hand he led the league in ERA, was in the top three in WHIP, and in the top 20 in strikeouts. 10 Wins | 181 K’s | 2.07 ERA | 1.06 WHIP
10. Brandon Webb, Arizona Diamondbacks - It was almost impossible to leave the MLB wins leader off this top ten list. If not for a rough June we might be talking Cy Young. 22 Wins | 183 K’s | 3.30 ERA | 1.20 WHIP

Below are the pre-season starting pitcher rankings.

2008 American League Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Rankings

1. Josh Beckett | Boston Red Sox
2. C.C. Sabathia | Cleveland Indians
3. Erik Bedard | Baltimore Orioles
4. Justin Verlander | Detroit Tigers
5. Scott Kazmir | Tampa Bay Rays
6. John Lackey | Los Angeles Angels
7. Felix Hernandez | Seattle Mariners
8. Roy Halladay | Toronto Blue Jays
9. Daisuke Matsuzaka | Boston Red Sox
10. James Shields | Tampa Bay Rays
11. Fausto Carmona | Cleveland Indians
12. Javier Vazquez | Chicago White Sox
13. Kelvim Escobar | Los Angeles Angels
14. A.J. Burnett | Toronto Blue Jays
15. Chien-Ming Wang | New York Yankees
16. Francisco Liriano | Minnesota Twins
17. Jered Weaver | Los Angeles Angels
18. Joe Blanton | Oakland Athletics
19. Jeremy Bonderman | Detroit Tigers
20. Curt Schilling | Boston Red Sox

2008 National League Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Rankings

1. Johan Santana | New York Mets
2. Jake Peavy | San Diego Padres
3. Brandon Webb | Arizona Diamondbacks
4. Cole Hamels | Philadelphia Phillies
5. Dan Haren | Arizona Diamondbacks
6. Aaron Harang | Cincinnati Reds
7. Carlos Zambrano | Chicago Cubs
8. Roy Oswalt | Houston Astros
9. John Smoltz | Atlanta Braves
10. Chris Young | San Diego Padres
11. Brett Myers | Philadelphia Phillies
12. Ben Sheets | Milwaukee Brewers
13. Matt Cain | San Francisco Giants
14. Rich Hill | Chicago Cubs
15. Brad Penny | Los Angeles Dodgers
16. Yovani Gallardo | Milwaukee Brewers
17. Jeff Francis | Colorado Rockies
18. Ted Lilly | Chicago Cubs
19. Tim Lincecum | San Francisco Giants
20. Tim Hudson | Atlanta Braves