Crooked Pitch

For my first post here at Crooked PItch, I’m going to a column that was a staple during my time at Warning Track Power. Pitchers that can keep the ball on the ground as well as pile up strikeouts are those with the best chance for consistent success, in my opinion, so finding the guys that do both things well is a great way to find possible values in fantasy leagues.

In 2007 the starters that kept a GB% above 45% and a K/G (a better K/9) above 6.8 were Derek Lowe, Brandon Webb, Felix Hernandez, A.J. Burnett, Dustin McGowan, Roy Oswalt, Daniel Cabrera, Jeremy Bonderman, Erik Bedard, Josh Beckett, Carlos Zambrano, Ian Snell, Boof Bonser, and CC Sabathia. That list in ‘06 consisted of names like Webb, Felix, Carpenter, Pettitte, Bedard, Oswalt, Bonderman, Zambrano, Bush, Smoltz, Myers, Haren, and Beckett. On its own, neither stat does a very good job weeding out poor starting pitchers. Combine the two, and you’ve got a list full of fantasy aces.

So, how does this information help us as fantasy owners? Well, if you used this criteria to evaluate starting pitchers last year, you would’ve been able to buy low on McGowan, who I highlighted in June when his ERA was in the high 5’s. Let’s take a look around the league using this criteria to see who might be the next high-GB%/high-K sleeper to make a leap this year.

Almost two months in, and it’s still a pretty long list. Control is mostly what separates the studs from the so-so on this list, but it’s pretty interesting that the only guys without a FIP ERA under 4.00 are Brett Myers and Johan Santana, two guys who have had terrible luck with HR/F (21.1% and 18.5%, respectively), something FIP doesn’t account for.

There aren’t a lot of unknowns on the list right now, but I bolded the guys I found most interesting, especially in deep leagues. Jimenez is a Daniel Cabrera clone, and like Cabrera has ace potential if he can cut the walks down. That’s the type of guy who can pay off big in a dynasty league. Jurrjens and Eveland are showing that their early success isn’t a fluke, though I think both are guys with high 3’s ERAs in their futures. That said, neither is likely to be a value at this point. Dempster and Marcum are showing pretty strong profiles as unestablished starters, and I’d suggest going aggressively after Marcum with his peripherals.

Danks is the guy I find most interesting here, as he’s gone from a flyball pitcher to a fairly extreme groundballer, and has maintained it to the point where it looks like a new skill. In that home park, it’s the best change he could have made. I’d be interested in seeing whether he started throwing a new pitch, or is making an effort to keep the ball down. In any case, if he maintains that 50% GB%, he’s a top 50 pitcher. That plus a tick up in strikeout rate (not unlikely with his stuff and pedrigree) could make him a fantasy stud.

Also: Volquez is amazing, it’s a good time to buy on Brett Myers, and Billingsley’s not all that different from The Jessica Alba of Fantasy, Tim Lincecum. Mmmmmm, that’s some good post-hype sleeper.