Crooked Pitch

Today’s pitch count is 10.

1. For the second straight time Rich Harden walked more hitters then he struck out Wednesday night. In those two games he’s given up nine earned runs in 10.1 innings. In related news, Harden hasn’t won a game sine May 12th.
2. David Ortiz hit another home run on Wednesday night. He has three over his last seven games and is batting .363 over that same time period.
3. The Phillies bullpen screwed Joe Blanton big time on Wednesday.  Blanton struck out ten and walked two over seven innings and only gave up two earned runs. On the other hand J.C. Romero and Chan Ho Park combined to give up five earned runs in the final two innings. Blanton has pitched well as of late. Over his last seven starts he’s 3-1 with a 3.42 ERA and 44 strikeouts with ten walks.

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I’d like to welcome Hans Horn from The View From The Dugout. Hans took me up on an offer to write a guest post. He’s also a first generation American, loved baseball at an early age and grew up teaching himself about the all aspects of game. Whether debating the importance of a thinking catcher, analyzing peripherals to uncover a great sleeper, or just taking in a pitchers duel with a dog and a beer, he enjoys it all.

Where have you gone David Ortiz? Can the protection of Manny “I’m On Fertility Medication” Ramirez really have been that big an impact on your game? Last I checked, Kevin Youkilis is hitting.

That Ortiz has shown no power to date is well known. He has yet to hit his first home run of the year. His On-Base Percentage is higher (.338) than his Slugging Percentage (.328). And he’s hit almost as many Infield Fly Balls (9) as he has Doubles (10). This is not the Big Papi we are used to.

But a closer look at the way teams are pitching him and how he is responding is equally shocking. In his most productive years, 2005-2007, Ortiz saw fastballs 56.9%, 54.6%, and 51.9% of the time. This year, he’s seeing the heat 54.5% of the time. The difference is where they are throwing them.
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I’m still catching up here on publishing the commentary from each selection in our slow mock draft. Take a look back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2,  round 3, and round 4.

• Round 5 : Pick 1(49) - @crookedpitch - David Ortiz - I know that Papi is getting older and his injury is still of concern, but with the 49th pick I’m willing to gamble that he’ll return to 30 home run form and post triple digit RBI. That Red Sox lineup is stacked. A healthy Ortiz can’t help but flourish.
• Round 5 : Pick 2(50) - @Angels2717 - Joe Mauer - In a two catcher league, you have to go for a catcher earlier than usual.  And what better way to have a great catcher in Joe Mauer.  He’ll hit over.300 and add in a bunch of everything: power and some speed.  After 5 catchers or so are drafted you get into the next tier of catchers which has a substantial drop in value.  This one pick was easy for me.
• Round 5 : Pick 3(51) - @TheRoundtable - Derrek Lee - I really debated on whether or not to take Lee or to go with Dan Uggla, but I’m a sucker for anyone that looks like T-Rex from Mr. 3000. Something like that. Lee’s consistent, and, again, that’s what I want out of my early picks. He’l hit right around .300, provide around 25-30 home runs, and drive in runs for that Cubs team. He hasn’t been the same since he was injured in 2006, but you can hardly call the steady production a true drop. I’m convinced this is about where he should go, and I got decent value on the pick. Given the talent left at other positions, I can start to line those up knowing my corners are solid.
• Round 5 : Pick 4(52) - @fakebaseball - Dan Uggla - I was afraid I was reaching a bit taking Uggla in the fifth round, but I doubt he would have made it back to me at the end of the sixth, and second base is pretty weak after you get through the early rounds. I’m hoping for another .250-.260/30 HR/100 RBI season, which would give me a strong foundation from my middle infield (pairing Uggla with my Reyes pick in round one). His streaky hitting isn’t as hard to stomach in a roto league like this as it would be in a head-to-head league. I’ll have to keep an eye on the batting average category going forward, though.
• Round 5 : Pick 5(53) - @jefeboy - Joey Votto - Not my 1st choice at 1B, but with McCann and Martin gone Votto was my best IF choice. I like the average, and I can only hope his power surges a bit. He looked great in the 2nd half of 08. And the handful of SBs doesn’t hurt. Was very tempted to add a second ace SP here, but I’d be at too much of an offensive disadvantage.
• Round 5 : Pick 6(54) - @xxldaddyo - Corey Hart -Yet another 30/30/.300 hitter. Think of him as the “poor mans” Grady Sizemore. He actually hit MORE flyballs in the 2H last year, but fewer of them went over the fence. That my friends is an anomaly that will correct itself. Plus? It’s just so damn fun to watch Bernie Brewer come down the slide at Miller Park every time Corey goes yard.
• Round 5 : Pick 7(55) - @tommystv - Alexei Ramirez - Best MI on the board, took him right where I hoped I could, don’t think I could’ve waited any longer. If you eliminate his slow start he had a 2nd round type season last year.
• Round 5 : Pick 8(56) - @sporer - Curtis Granderson - Anyone that knows me knows that there is no surprise with the Granderson pick.  He’s my favorite player in the league hands down.  But thankfully it works out that picking my favorite player is also a huge benefit to my team.  Granderson didn’t run much last year and speculation has been rampant as to why, but regardless the reason I can’t envision Leyland not giving him the green light all season in 2009.  He should coast to a .285-100-20-70-20 season with his upside approaching the 30-30 realm.
• Round 5 : Pick 9(57) - @therotofeed - Jake Peavy - I don’t love taking pitchers before the sixth round in a snake draft. But when Jake Peavy is still sitting there at pick #57, it’s probably time to grab him at a nice discount. No doubt, Peavy’s coming off some injuries playing for a lousy team. But he’s only 27 and we’ve seen super-elite skills very recently from him.  I don’t see any batters with super-elite potential left on the board. And I smell another pitching run brewing.
• Round 5 : Pick 10(58) - @dowdyism - Cole Hamels - I am very pleasantly surprised that Cole Hamels fell to me at the back of the 5th round.  I rank him right up there with C.C. Sabathia in the group behind Johan Santana and Tim Lincecum.  His workload has increased each of the past three years, so there is a belief that he is now a greater injury risk, but his numbers are rock-solid, and that’s what I am looking for in a fantasy ace.
• Round 5 : Pick 11(59) - @jasoncollette - Jacoby Ellsbury - With that pick, I’m done drafting steals for quite some time. He is only a 3 category playe but he has the potential to max out in those three categories which is why he is enticing.
• Round 5 : Pick 12(60) - @seniorcircuit - Chipper Jones -I know, I know, he’s an injury risk, I get that. I needed some power at third base after the dependable guys were off the board. Every year he gets hurt but you can’t ignore the fact that over the last 3 years he has hit at least .320 when he is healthy. His power numbers are coming down but that is the result of him not playing a full season. If he plays in 130-150 games I would count on 85/30/100/5/.325 but realistically you should expect 70/25/85/5/.330

Before Monday night’s game, Red Sox DH, David Ortiz was mired in a deep slump. He was batting .068 (3 for 44) and was even taken out of the lineup for the ESPN Sunday Night baseball game against the Yankees. You probably couldn’t have convinced many people to sell you Papi low, even at this point. but, at least they wouldn’t have laughed at you… for long.

However, before Monday’s game, Papi texted Terry Francona “asking” to be in the lineup.

“He actually texted me - and this is no joke, I actually thought I was texting my daughter - and he was like, ‘Hey, dad’ or ‘Hey, pop’ or whatever it was,” Francona said. “I texted him back and I was like, ‘What number is this?’

“All of a sudden, I get back, ‘Mine, (expletive).’ Now I’m getting (upset), so I call and it’s David. I was all mixed up, because the last one said, ‘Put me in, (expletive).’ And I can’t figure it out. I was actually kind of relieved. If David gets hits or not, at least I don’t have a 14-year-old talking like that. The good news is my daughter’s not speaking like that, and David wants to play.”

Papi went 2 for 5 with 2 singles and is now hitting .104. These are two signs that all David Ortiz fantasy baseball owners have been looking for. The first is that he’s anxious to get out there and keep swinging. The second is that the base hits are starting to come now.

Maybe you can buy low on Papi by saying his power is still down…