Crooked Pitch

Writing today from the comfort of his own electric chair, Josh Illes is the creator of the new blog The Pickup Artist. I call it The Pickup Artist because I plan on analyzing interesting in-season transactions throughout the baseball year. But I also have a somewhat snarkier side to me, and many times I rant for no reason at all about not being able to understand a word that Eric Young is saying. Ok, so I may just rant about that once. I’m only kidding of course. I love E.Y.! I also consider myself somewhat of a stat head and sometimes when I look at certain things in the game of baseball just a teeny bit more closely I come up with some actual relevant knowledge. Here, my friends, is an example of just one of those times…

Chicago Cubs closer

Carlos Marmol vs. Kevin Gregg

I’m not exactly sure that Lou Piniella isn’t dramatizing this unnecessarily because he’s upset with Carlos Marmol for pitching in the WBC, but let’s assume that this position is up for grabs. There are a couple very obvious advantages to each of these guys. Marmol is the better pitcher. Kevin Gregg has more closing experience. I would think you would have to go with “better pitcher” in almost every circumstance, but what else do we have?

Some interesting background on Marmol: Up until 2003 he was an outfield prospect that couldn’t hit, and then a catcher that could throw but couldn’t hit. He, and the Cubs, decided he ought to try his hand at pitching, and to say that was a wise decision would be quite an understatement. Once he made the adjustment to pitching, his career path was to eventually be a starter for the big league team. Not until 2007 did he start working out of the bullpen. Marmol is 26 years old, and throws four pitches, including a fastball that regularly rises above 95 mph.

On the flipside, Gregg is somewhat of a journeyman type of reliever who was drafted by Oakland in 1996. The A’s were developing him as a starter, but in 2002 he signed a free agent contract with the Angels, and they quickly turned him into a reliever with the hopes that he could be a Brendan Donnelly type of setup man. I’d say that was good scouting by the Angels because that’s about what he is currently. Interestingly, though, in between then and now, he spent two years with the Marlins, and they made him their closer. He was pretty good as a closer too. He was 32 for 36 in save opportunities in 2007, although last year he had 9 blown saves in 38 chances. So he is definitely trending downward. Gregg is 31 years old, also throws four pitches and his fastball touches the low 90’s.

The latest out of Cubs camp is that Piniella is supposed to make a decision between the two of them this week. Marmol has said that he is just happy to be on the team, whether it be closing or 8th inning, or whatever. Meanwhile Gregg has been very adamant that he would like to close. It sounds like they just have very different personalities, really.  Conventional wisdom here is that Marmol is the closer most of the year. When the Cubs decided to let Kerry Wood walk as a free agent, it was sort of assumed by many that they were clearing the path for Marmol to take over the job that he had earned over the past year and a half. But the Cubs signed Gregg before Wood left, which could imply that there is a lack of confidence in Marmol.

Keeping all of this in mind, from a fantasy perspective you just can’t draft Marmol as an elite closer yet.  He’s very close, but he obviously will have a short leash, with Piniella not wanting to take any chances, and Gregg there waiting to take over at the slightest misstep. Gregg, meanwhile, has become a very low-cost guy with save vulture upside; perfect for everyone who hates to draft closers.

Boston Red Sox Fifth Starter

Brad Penny vs Clay Buchholz vs John Smoltz vs Justin Masterson

Ok, so I snuck Masterson in there even though the Red Sox aren’t really considering him for a rotation spot. I’m just not sure why, though. In my opinion he has the best stuff of all of them at this point in their respective careers, so why not?

Another thing, this is actually the fourth starter position that is up for grabs. Tim Wakefield will be the fifth starter and that is already set. However, I don’t want to confuse anyone (anymore anyway) so I’ll just call it the fifth starter.

We have a nice little battle going on between the other three, though. Well, really just the first two, because if Smoltz were healthy he’d have it locked down.  He may be back by June, but don’t hold your breath. Penny has also been slowed by the same shoulder problems that limited to just 19 games last year, one of the worst years of his career. Buchholz, meanwhile, is the former no-hit prodigy that was supposed to have a breakout last season, but instead finished the year with just two wins.

So, in a battle between a has-been, a never-really-was, and a maybe-someday-if-he-ever-grows-up, I’m taking the never-really-was in Brad Penny. I saw enough of Buchholz last year that I can honestly say I would be shocked if he were to ever be considered a good major league pitcher. Penny meanwhile, when healthy, is at least that and sometimes more. If he starts 26 games, he should be able to win at least 11 of them and maybe up to 15 or so. But if Smoltz somehow makes it back, Penny will be relegated to the bullpen, as Smoltz would start.

Bottom line: Penny is your low cost, high reward guy. Buchholz is the guy you are staying away from, and Smoltz is your sleeper to stash on your DL for later on in the year.

Minnesota Twins Right Fielder

Michael Cuddyer vs Denard Span

I love the Twins this year. For all of the obvious reasons, including a very promising young pitching staff, and a dominant closer, but also because they just get it. I’ve mentioned it on my blog before, but I’ll mention it again now. They are going to have Economic Downturn Mondays (not actually what they are calling it), where they are going to price their outfield seats according to how poorly the stock market closed the Friday before. Genius, pure genius. Go Twins.

But I have to wonder when I am watching them this year, who exactly will be playing right field? Will it be the team comedian Michael Cuddyer (just listen to an interview of this guy sometime), or the young speedster Denard Span? Cuddyer was plagued by injuries last year, but until then was becoming sort of a fixture in the Twins lineup. When he went down he was replaced by Span, who came out of virtually nowhere to hit .294 with 18 steals and 6 homers in 347 at-bats.

In a perfect world, two things would happen. First, Denard Span would be able to play his natural position; center field, and secondly Michael Cuddyer would not lose his job due to injury. But Carlos Gomez will be the Twins’ center fielder, and players do, in fact, lose their jobs due to injury. I think it’s safe to say that Span has shown the Twins enough that he will be named the starter. Now the question is whether or not to try and trade Cuddyer or keep him as the backup utility guy. If I recall correctly, Cuddyer was a utility type when he first came up, able to play infield and outfield. Not sure if he would agree to go back to that, but anything is possible.

For now, I would stay away from Cuddyer altogether, but if he gets traded and gets regular PT, then he has some value in deep leagues. Span could be huge this year. Or he could regress a little. Either way, he is someone to keep an eye on and should be a good fifth outfielder in a mixed league. There’s one more thing to add to that. If Cuddyer gets traded, I would move Span up on my rankings list. The Twins would really, really have to believe in him for that to happen.

Now that it’s round thirteen, you’re going to start seeing owners fill out teams needs and start really jumping on positional runs. Position scarcity may also start driving the decisions some of these guys make.

Take a look back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2,  round 3, round 4, round 5, round 6, round 7, round 8, round 9, round 10, round 11 and round 12.

• Round 13 : Pick 1(145) - @crookedpitch - Pat Burrell - To grab a 30+ home run hitter at this stage in the draft seems very good to me. He fits nicely into my power laden lineup. I’m glad that our league is set up roto-style versus head-to-head as Burrell’s swings from hot to cold could derail a H2H team. But, in roto, 30 homers is 30 homers. I couldn’t care less if they al come in one month.
• Round 13 : Pick 2(146) - @Angels2717 - Edwin Encarnacion - In this draft, I waited awhile to take a 3B and when your this deeo into a draft, its hard to get a good one. I believe Encarnacion has the ability to post some solid stats for a thirteen-rounder; he’s streaky but when he’s on, he’s good. Hopefully this pick won’t be as bad as it looks so far.
• Round 13 : Pick 3(147) - @TheRoundtable - Chien-Ming Wang - One of the forgotten souls because of his injury last year. Wang didn’t forget how to pitch, he just couldn’t help the Yankees out at all. He won 19 games in 2006 and 2007. I’m betting he’s back and much closer to that this season than he is anything else. Given where we are in the draft, I like the potential for grabbing a Cy Young-candidate this late in the game.
• Round 13 : Pick 4(148) - @fakebaseball - Alex Gordon - In need of a third baseman and with few choices left, I took Alex Gordon in the 13th round. I probably reached a round early, but at this point in the draft, I’d rather go with upside potential than confirmed mediocrity. Sure, Gordon hasn’t lived up to expectations, but he’s still young, and made incremental improvements last year that gives hope he’ll continue to develop. My tempered expectations are for .270/22 HR/12 SB, but as we’ve seen before with “post-hype” young players, there’s the possibility for more.
• Round 13 : Pick 5(149) - @jefeboy - Scott Baker - A sleeper SP, to some extent I guess. He was very good in 2008 and could improve in 2009. Another upside pick.
• Round 13 : Pick 6(150) - @xxldaddyo - James Loney - I had my eye on Alex Gordon to fill one of my CI spots and was hopeful that I would be able to snag him in this round, but @fakebaseball foiled those plans for me just two picks before me. I knew that I needed to snag a Corner position here and so I went with James Loney at pick 150. Not a prodigious power hitter (figure 15HRs to be safe), he does hit for average and I think will hit .300 in 2009. He is only 24 years old and now has two solid years of Major League experience under his belt. Plus I’ve decided to petition the powers that be at Dodger Stadium to ply JD Southers “When youre only lone(l)y” if James goes into any prolonged slumps this year:
  

  When the world is ready to fall on your little shoulders
  And when you’re feeling lonely and small, you need somebody there to hold you
  You can call out my name when you’re only Lone(l)y
  Now don’t you ever be ashamed when you’re only Lone(l)y

• Round 13 : Pick 7(151) - @tommystv - Nick Swisher - Not sure what happened to him last year. I could see a power dropoff as steroids/hgh or lack there of deal. (everyone in Oakland past and present juice right?) But for this guy not to hit for a better AVG was a bit mind boggling. I think he was pressing and that he bounces back solid in ‘09. 1B/OF eligibility is always nice.
• Round 13 : Pick 8(152) - @sporer - Jonathan Broxton - I’m usually anti-saves or at least I don’t start speculating on them until much later, but when Broxton was there in the 13th, I went for it. With Saito completely out of the picture, it’s Broxton’s job as long as he’s successful and his skills thus far suggest that could be quite a while! He can be wild at times (3.5 walks per nine last year), but he has overpowering stuff that will win out in the long run (10.9 and 11.5 strikeouts per nine the past two seasons). He is ready to become an elite game-ender.
• Round 13 : Pick 9(153) - @therotofeed - Denard Span - At the time, I thought this was a cheap and somewhat painless way to add speed and runs without adding Willy Taveras.  Looking back, I think I could have waited, but SBs were flying off the board by this point.
• Round 13 : Pick 10(154) - @dowdyism - Adam Wainwright - I almost never target specific players heading into a draft, but Wainwright was one I was keeping my eyes on in the right position. His injury last year cut into his innings, but I think he will be on track for career numbers in 2009. Not an elite strikeout guy, but a solid contributor in the other categories.
• Round 13 : Pick 11(155) - @jasoncollette - Shin-Soo Chin - This guy had a terrific close of the season and has the skills to go 20/20/.290 in 2009.
• Round 13 : Pick 12(156) - @seniorcircuit - Francisco Cordero - I took Cordero as my first closer as he was one of the last remaining “stable” closers on the board. But as I have owned him in the past, he makes me nervous every time he gets handed the ball. Especially pitching at Great American Ballpark, there is no telling how his year could go.  Projecting him at 33 S/80 Ks/3.20 ERA/1.33 WHIP.