Crooked Pitch

I love a “Cinderella “ story as much as anyone. But, even I have to face the facts that sometimes, particularly when it comes to mediocre pitchers having phenomenal starts, that it may be time to sell high. Call it dumb luck, or whatever, these three pitchers’ fifteen minutes of fame is over. If you have any of these players on your roster I would highly suggest unloading them ASAP.

1. Kevin Millwood | Texas Rangers - Millwood is off to a hot start with an ERA of 2.78 and three wins. But in his last outing he gave up five runs in 7 1/3 Innings. He is probably coming back to Earth now, considering he hasn’t had an ERA below 4.50 since 2005. He isn’t a big strikeout pitcher either; he currently has 25 K’s in 45 Innings. The only saving grace is he figures to pick up some wins this season courtesy of the Rangers run support, but not enough to keep him on your team all season.
2. Doug Davis | Arizona Diamondbacks - Davis started the season strong. Through the first five games he had and ERA of 2.91 with two wins for the Diamondbacks. That fell apart in his last start however. He gave up four runs on five hits in 4 1/3 innings, issuing four walks along the way. He has never been more that two games over .500 in his career and his ERA hasn’t been below 4.00 since 2005. In addition, three times in his career he has issued more than 90 walks in a season.
3. Kyle Lohse | St. Louis Cardinals - Lohse has started red hot after coming off of a career year where he finished with 15 wins and a 3.78 ERA. He started off 3-0 with a 1.97 ERA. But, his last start may also be an ominous sign of things to come. Against the Phillies he allowed six earned runs in just 4 1/3 innings. Also troublesome was the fact that he was hit by a pitch in the third inning and said after the game his arm felt “numb”. Lohse has a history of declining production, last year her went 4-4 with a 4.35 ERA after the All-Star break versus 11-2 and a 3.39 ERA before the break.

These players are probably at their peak of value right now. While hot pitchers are great to come by, history dictates you should proceed cautiously with this group of pitchers.

Here is a review of this weeks best pickups as reviewed on Daily Roto Pickups. I will try to supply one from each of the following positions at my weekly review here on Crooked Pitch (C, CI, MI, OF, SP and RP). I will include their current availability that may have changed since my initial review. The reviews are how I view the player today.

C: Gerald Laird- He is top 10 in R and HR for catchers and 13th in RBI’s. He is still the primary catcher and unless he goes stone cold will hold the job until he gets traded if they decide Salty should go behind the plate. I like him and his average is now about where it should be. Just don’t expect him to help much there. Not many stats calling for an increase or regression from here so expect more of the same.

He is currently owned in 32% of leagues.

CI: Ramon Vazquez - I did this two weeks ago, but I am going to suggest him here since he has 3B eligible, but if you get him he should only be used at SS and MI. He will get AB’s as long as he hits like this as Blalock has been told he will go to 1B when he gets back. Warning signs are in a lower K rate at 18.7% and a BABIP at .371. He is a fill-in or backup at SS/MI.

He is only owned in 9% of CBS leagues.

MI: Akinori Iwamura - I added Iwamura last April in my league that counts OBP and had a great April run. Then injury struck and he never played like that again for the remainder of the year. Again he has 3B eligibility, but is truly a 2B player. He has been hot this month in R, BA, and OBP. This could be just another hot streak or he could get injured, but he should be a good play for the time being.

He is only owned in 49% of CBS leagues.

OF: Mark Kotsay - He has a few signs leading to a bit of regression but none show that he will fall off significantly. His BABIP and OBP are a bit over career lines, but only slightly. I would carry him as a 4th or 5th outfielder or a bench reserve.

He is only owned in 26% of CBS leagues.

SP: Doug Davis - If he is cleared medically to play I don’t think he should be to much of a concern health wise. He had 2 very good years in 2004 and 2005 and I think he has a shot to relive those years. His wins should be good with that hot lineup and his ERA should be tolerable. His WHIP has usually been a little to high so don’t count on him for that. I would wait a start or two to see how he does and if he has his strength.

He is owned in 8% of leagues.

RP: Chris Perez - Ah the flame throwing young reliever. Will he end up as another Zumaya or maybe the cardinals can get him to sign a no Guitar Hero contract? He’s never really had a lot of time in any level to judge his numbers, but he can get K’s and also walks. Larussa has been known to put young players in big spots so if he can keep playing well he may be pushed into the closer rotation or take the job fully. Those hunting for saves should take the shot.

They are only owned in 17% as of this morning on CBS.