Crooked Pitch

One of my favorite strategies in deep leagues is to run the best four starters I can get out there every game, and fill in the rest with high-K middle relievers. I’d rather have a guy who gives me killer ratios for 75 innings than a mediocre starter who gives me 200 with a 4.40 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. You’ll usually win the ratio categories with this strategy, and if you’re far enough ahead in those, you can always pick up the occasional spot starter if you need a W or some Ks.

Dominant middle relievers can be had on the wire every year if you know what to look for. Last year Heath Bell, Carlos Marmol, and Rafael Betancourt could be picked up for free in nearly every league, and were three of the better fantasy pitchers in the game. Yahoo ranked Betancourt as the 19th(!) most valuable pitcher in ‘07, Bell the 24th, and Marmol the 39th. I grabbed both Betancourt and Marmol off the wire during the season in 20-team dynasty leagues. I missed my chance on Bell. With relievers, the stats to look at are BB:K (command), K/9 (dominance), and possibly GB% (HR prevention). ERA and hits allowed are too volatile in the small amount of innings a reliever pitches to pay too much attention to. BIP numbers, (like GB%, FB%, LD%) are pretty worthless until there’s a decent sample to look at as well.

Everyone’s seen the starts by guys like Joey Devine, Santiago Casilla, and Hong-Chih Kuo in our leagues this season, so let’s look at four guys you should still be able to find on your waiver wire:

Jared Burton: Burton made a bit of a splash last year with a BABIP-assisted 2.51 ERA in 43 IP, most after the All-Star break. This year, he’s doing it for real, with drastically improved control and K-rate. Last year Reds manager Pete Mackanin wanted to give Burton an audition at closer when David Weathers needed a rest, but who knows what the situation is now with Dusty and Frankie Cordero in the mix.
2008 Stats: 27.2IP 30H 10ER 8BB 29K (more…)