Crooked Pitch

Today’s guest post comes from Mark Hinton who is a fantasy baseball addict and long suffering Cincinnati Reds fan.  When not scouring the waiver wire for players to turn his fantasy league fortunes around, Mark enjoys punishing his body with drink and heart-stopping foods.  Mark can be reached at mhinton_us[at]yahoo[dot]com.

Every year I do it. I remind myself not to do it.  It’s like a diet ….at first it’s easy, then a big chocolate cheesecake comes along and it all falls apart.  Of course I’m referring to drafting too heavily from your favorite teams.

My favorite team is the Cincinnati Reds.  Yes, I know, right there is reason enough to question my intelligence….let alone my ability to formulate a successful fantasy draft.  Last year my draft was destroyed when I overpaid for I thought were the two “steals” of the draft in Edwin Encarnacion and Aaron Harang.  You can guess how the rest goes.

For me the urge to do this is too great.  It’s only natural that when I get the chance to draft a player whose past exploits has provided me with euphoric joy that I pounce on him like a tiger on an injured gazelle. This is the road to disaster.  I follow my team so closely that I believe that only I know the “inside information” about my favorite players that will bring me a championship.    I often dream of the unbridled jealousy of the other owners when my “sleeper” pick of Homer Bailey will win the CY Young.

I’m afraid that I extend my hometown bias to teams located in the Midwest as a whole.  Several times during the season last year I would go to bed with my fantasy team leading the daily totals for my league.  Upon waking, only to discover I had fallen back to the bottom of the pack by morning.   At first, I blamed it on faulty calculations by computer systems running our league, But then, I noticed something…..I had no west coast players on my team.  Games with the Pirates, Cubs and Tigers were long over by the time The Dodgers, Angels, and the Giants were scoring runs.

This year is different, I drafted from the whole league…not just from my backyard.    Every player was drafted on their own merits, not just because I could watch them on the local cable broadcast.  My team is a great melting pot from all over the country.  This year I even let Jay Bruce fall to the second round.  Who say’s people can’t change?

Now that it’s round thirteen, you’re going to start seeing owners fill out teams needs and start really jumping on positional runs. Position scarcity may also start driving the decisions some of these guys make.

Take a look back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2,  round 3, round 4, round 5, round 6, round 7, round 8, round 9, round 10, round 11 and round 12.

• Round 13 : Pick 1(145) - @crookedpitch - Pat Burrell - To grab a 30+ home run hitter at this stage in the draft seems very good to me. He fits nicely into my power laden lineup. I’m glad that our league is set up roto-style versus head-to-head as Burrell’s swings from hot to cold could derail a H2H team. But, in roto, 30 homers is 30 homers. I couldn’t care less if they al come in one month.
• Round 13 : Pick 2(146) - @Angels2717 - Edwin Encarnacion - In this draft, I waited awhile to take a 3B and when your this deeo into a draft, its hard to get a good one. I believe Encarnacion has the ability to post some solid stats for a thirteen-rounder; he’s streaky but when he’s on, he’s good. Hopefully this pick won’t be as bad as it looks so far.
• Round 13 : Pick 3(147) - @TheRoundtable - Chien-Ming Wang - One of the forgotten souls because of his injury last year. Wang didn’t forget how to pitch, he just couldn’t help the Yankees out at all. He won 19 games in 2006 and 2007. I’m betting he’s back and much closer to that this season than he is anything else. Given where we are in the draft, I like the potential for grabbing a Cy Young-candidate this late in the game.
• Round 13 : Pick 4(148) - @fakebaseball - Alex Gordon - In need of a third baseman and with few choices left, I took Alex Gordon in the 13th round. I probably reached a round early, but at this point in the draft, I’d rather go with upside potential than confirmed mediocrity. Sure, Gordon hasn’t lived up to expectations, but he’s still young, and made incremental improvements last year that gives hope he’ll continue to develop. My tempered expectations are for .270/22 HR/12 SB, but as we’ve seen before with “post-hype” young players, there’s the possibility for more.
• Round 13 : Pick 5(149) - @jefeboy - Scott Baker - A sleeper SP, to some extent I guess. He was very good in 2008 and could improve in 2009. Another upside pick.
• Round 13 : Pick 6(150) - @xxldaddyo - James Loney - I had my eye on Alex Gordon to fill one of my CI spots and was hopeful that I would be able to snag him in this round, but @fakebaseball foiled those plans for me just two picks before me. I knew that I needed to snag a Corner position here and so I went with James Loney at pick 150. Not a prodigious power hitter (figure 15HRs to be safe), he does hit for average and I think will hit .300 in 2009. He is only 24 years old and now has two solid years of Major League experience under his belt. Plus I’ve decided to petition the powers that be at Dodger Stadium to ply JD Southers “When youre only lone(l)y” if James goes into any prolonged slumps this year:
  

  When the world is ready to fall on your little shoulders
  And when you’re feeling lonely and small, you need somebody there to hold you
  You can call out my name when you’re only Lone(l)y
  Now don’t you ever be ashamed when you’re only Lone(l)y

• Round 13 : Pick 7(151) - @tommystv - Nick Swisher - Not sure what happened to him last year. I could see a power dropoff as steroids/hgh or lack there of deal. (everyone in Oakland past and present juice right?) But for this guy not to hit for a better AVG was a bit mind boggling. I think he was pressing and that he bounces back solid in ‘09. 1B/OF eligibility is always nice.
• Round 13 : Pick 8(152) - @sporer - Jonathan Broxton - I’m usually anti-saves or at least I don’t start speculating on them until much later, but when Broxton was there in the 13th, I went for it. With Saito completely out of the picture, it’s Broxton’s job as long as he’s successful and his skills thus far suggest that could be quite a while! He can be wild at times (3.5 walks per nine last year), but he has overpowering stuff that will win out in the long run (10.9 and 11.5 strikeouts per nine the past two seasons). He is ready to become an elite game-ender.
• Round 13 : Pick 9(153) - @therotofeed - Denard Span - At the time, I thought this was a cheap and somewhat painless way to add speed and runs without adding Willy Taveras.  Looking back, I think I could have waited, but SBs were flying off the board by this point.
• Round 13 : Pick 10(154) - @dowdyism - Adam Wainwright - I almost never target specific players heading into a draft, but Wainwright was one I was keeping my eyes on in the right position. His injury last year cut into his innings, but I think he will be on track for career numbers in 2009. Not an elite strikeout guy, but a solid contributor in the other categories.
• Round 13 : Pick 11(155) - @jasoncollette - Shin-Soo Chin - This guy had a terrific close of the season and has the skills to go 20/20/.290 in 2009.
• Round 13 : Pick 12(156) - @seniorcircuit - Francisco Cordero - I took Cordero as my first closer as he was one of the last remaining “stable” closers on the board. But as I have owned him in the past, he makes me nervous every time he gets handed the ball. Especially pitching at Great American Ballpark, there is no telling how his year could go.  Projecting him at 33 S/80 Ks/3.20 ERA/1.33 WHIP.

For the most part, MLB teams are entering Spring Training with their third base position set. There are a few battles going on; Buscher versus Harris in Minnesota, Blum vesus Boone in Houston (yuck) and McPherson versus Helms in Florida. When those teams make decisions regarding the hot corner, I’ll update this list.

Also, expect Wiggington to make a splash on this list when he signs.

Here are the 2009 fantasy third base rankings:

1. David Wright | New York Mets - Wright will contribute in all five categories and should be considered a top four overall fantasy stud. He and A-Rod a very closely ranked, but Wright’s numbers should surpass A-Rod’s this season.
2. Alex Rodriguez | New York Yankees - A-Rod is also a five category contributor who shoul dbe taken with one of the first four picks in any fantasy draft where salary doesn’t play a part. Going with A-Rod or Wright could just be a matter of which NY team you like better.
3. Aramis Ramirez | Chicago Cubs - He’s reached triple digits in RBI the last three years, he’s a lock for 25+ home runs, and his batting average doesn’t hurt you either.
4. Evan Longoria | Tampa Bay Rays - Longoria blasted 27 home runs in only 448 at-bats in ‘08 easily deserved the AL Rookie of the Year award, and top five placement here. Two worries: His wrist injuries and his subsequent power drop off in the second half. If those two issues are fixed for ‘09, expect big things.
5. Chipper Jones | Atlanta Braves - Prior to the ‘08 season the only goal Chipper set for himself was to reach 150 games played. He did not get there, but put up one damned fine season at the plate hitting .364 and winning a batting title. Don’t expect a batting average repeat or 150 games played, but you can safely expect Jones to outperform most third basemen with fewer at-bats. (Read: Jones + lower tiered 3B = fantasy goodness)
6. Garrett Atkins | Colorado Rockies - Now that Atkins seems to be staying put this off-season in Colorado, you can grab him right around here amongst third basemen. But remember this; Atkins hit .342 at home and .233 on the road. If his ticket gets punched to another MLB city at the trade deadline, his fantasy valur will plummit like your 401(k).
7. Chone Figgins | Los Angeles Angels - Figgins is the first third baseman who doesn’t have any power potential whatsoever. You grab Figgins for his stolen base skills. He’s been limited by injuries to right at 115 games the last two seasons and he stole 41 and 34 bases respectively. If healthy, a 150+ game season out of Figgins could produce 50+ stolen bases, easily.
8. Edwin Encarnacion | Cincinnati Reds - Loved the 60% increase in home runs (16 to 26). Hated the 38 point decrease in batting average. The slide in batting average could have a little something to do with a 26.4% hit rate (career norm is 29.5%).  That being said, if his average comes back up and his power sticks around you’ve got yourself a great option. Also remember that Encarnacion is entering his 27-year-old season.
9. Ryan Zimmerman | Washington Nationals - Zimmerman missed almost two months in ‘08 and still put up decent numbers. He hit .306 in the second half and blasted 5 home runs in the final month of the season. The end of the year power output could spell good things to come in ‘09. Plus, he’s only going to be 25.
10. Adrian Beltre | Seattle Mariners - Beltre’s 77 RBI were a far cry from the 99 he posted in ‘08 with similar home run totals. The Mariners had a tough season and it played a part in Beltre’s run production. There’s not much to suggest the M’s will fix anything for ‘09, but Beltre should produce similarly to ‘08.
11. Mark Reynolds | Arizona Diamondbacks - Reynolds managed to strike out 204 times in 2008 leading to an abysmal .239 batting average. However, he did have 28 home runs and 97 RBI. To stomach Reynolds’ special plate awareness you’d better surround him with extremely high average hitters. Another precursor to doom: Reynold’s second half numbers were far worse than his first half. He may be regressing.
12. Troy Glaus | St. Louis Cardinals - Glaus hit 27 home runs and drove in 99 in 544 at-bats last year. He’d be rankied in the top 10 of this list if he weren’t going ot be out until at least mid-May following surgery.
13. Alex Gordon | Kansas City Royals - Gordon upped his walk rate and lowered his strikeout rate in ‘08 and those things make me happy. His batting average rose 13 points in response; all while hitting more home runs. Gordon should continue growing as a hitter in ‘09 and when he does, will become a top ten third baseman.
14. Mark DeRosa | Cleveland Indians - DeRosa’s batting average dropped in ‘08 as his strikeout rate rose and his hit rate dropped. He’s 34-years-old and his days of hitting 20+ home runs are gone. But, his multi-position eligibilty really increases his fantasy value, so draft him and enjoy DeRosa as an outfielder, second baseman or third baseman.
15. Melvin Mora | Baltimore Orioles - Mora’s second half of 2008 sealed many fantasy championships. Heck, he was picked off the waiver wire in a lot of leagues. That being said, you’re most likely going to be spending too much or drafting him too high in 2009. He’ll still hit 17-20 home runs, but don’t expect triple digit RBI any more.
16. Mike Lowell | Boston Red Sox - Lowell will not hurt your fantasy team at all, but he’s showing many signs of age and his days of getting 500+ at-bats seem long gone. Expect somethin gin the neighborhood of 15 home runs and 75 RBI with a .270 batting average. You should also draft another third baseman to play when Lowell inevitably hits the DL.
17. Michael Young | Texas Rangers - His .280+ with double digit home runs and stolen bases make him a top ten short stop. As a third baseman he’s not quite so valuable. After a week or so, he’ll be eligible at short stop, third base, middle infield and corner infield. That kind of versatility is somewhat valuable.
18. Kevin Kouzmanoff | San Diego Padres - His plate discipline took a turn for the worse in ‘08 as his walk rate dropped and his strikeout rate rose. As a result his batting average dropped by 15 points. He did bring his home run total up, which is nice, but remember he plays in an extremely pitcher friendly park and reaching 23 home runs again might not be in the cards.
19. Casey Blake | Los Angeles Dodgers - Remember that Blake is 35-years-old and no longer a threat to hit 20+ home runs and drive in 80+. He has multi-positional eligibility in some leagues which drives up his value just enough to still be relevant.
20. Pablo Sandoval | San Francisco Giants - This 22-year-old hit .345 with three home runs in 145 at-bats last year. More importantly, he is eligible to play catcher, first base and third base. He’s in the lineup for good now (most likely at third) and you can expect some great things from him in ‘09. A .300 batting average with 15 home runs and 85 RBI don’t seemout of the question. Just remember that he’s young and doesn’t have a large sample size of MLB data to go on when he hits a few speed bumps.
21. Eric Chavez | Oakland Athletics - The talent is here, but Chavez is a huge injury risk. He hasn’t reached 500+ at-bats since 2005 and only had 89 at-bats last season. A healthy Chavez could hit 25 home runs and drive in 80+. An injured Chavez… well, see 2008.
22. Bill Hall | Milwaukee Brewers - Remember the good ole days back in 2006 when Hall hit 35 dingers and had a .270 batting average? Well, we now know that that season was an anomaly. Hall’s never going to produce like that again, and his .225 average last season pushed him out of mixed-league consideration.
23. Scott Rolen | Toronto Blue Jays - Rolen, just like Chavez above but not quite so extreme, can’t seem to stay healthy. If he reaches 400 at-bats in ‘09 he’ll bat .255 with 10 home runs.
24. Josh Fields | Chicago White Sox - Ozzie Guillen openly criticized Fields last season to the point of saying his skills were diminished. That’s a rough thing to hear as a 26-year-old. In only 32 at-bats he hit .156 with zero home runs, proving Guillens point. Until Fields proves he can produce at the big league evel, he’s an AL-only, late round kind of guy.
25. Pedro Feliz | Philadelphia Phillies - Mike Schmidt threw many fantasy owners a wicked curve ball last spring when he said Feliz could hit 30 home runs and drive in 100. Sorry Mike, Feliz cannot do those things and he also should be making any mixed-league rosters.
26. Brandon Inge | Detroit Tigers - Inge’s batting average has slid further than Sid Bream’s famous slide to send the Braves to the World Series in 1992. He batted .205 last season in 347 at-bats with 11 home runs and for the life of me, I can’t figure out how he’d even make it onto a fantasy roster of any type.