Crooked Pitch

I just listed the top five hitters by rising ADP’s last week, now let’s move on the the pitchers.

1. Edwin Jackson | Detroit Tigers | +35.7 - I guess the Tigers aren’t the only folks that think that Jackson’s 24% decrease in ERA last season makes him a real deal sleeper. Mock drafters took Jackson in the 23rd round last week (260.57 ADP) instead of at an ADP of 353.63.
2. Brian Fuentes | Los Angeles Angels | +18.9% - With the move to Los Angeles Fuentes is moving into top 15 closer status at Mock Draft Central. He was a 15th round pick (174.56 ADP) last week but now is a 13th round pick at 146.77.
3. Ian Snell | Pittsburgh Pirates | +17.6% - Snell was supposed to be a high strikeout sleeper in ‘08, but his strikeout total dropped by 24% and his ERA ballooned. He says he’s working out, eating right and feeling better, and apparently drafters are believing him. I’m not ready to drink the Snell rebound Kool-Aid, yet. He’s being taken at pick #263.67 (23rd round) now instead of #310.20 last week.
4. Rafael Soriano | Atlanta Braves | +15.2% - Soriano is hurt and unsure of an opening day return. Not to mention he’s #2 on the bullpen depth chart to Mike Gonzalez. But he’s climbing the charts at MDC; up from 252.30 (21st round) to 219.05(19th round).
5. Chad Cordero | Free Agent | +7.0% - Lot’s of rumors about Cordero and where he’ll land. But the biggest question is can he return and be effective from shoulder surgery. He’s up from 269.87 (23rd round) to 252.30 (21st round) as some of you believe the answer is yes.

One of my favorite strategies in fantasy baseball is to go after former top prospects who have had a rough go of things early in their careers.  With the fantasy game evolving to integrate minor league rosters and dynasty/keeper league styles, the focus on youth by fantasy GMs has exploded in recent years.  As a result, the value these GMs put on “the next big thing” can be huge:  Those who have attempted to deal for Jay Bruce or Clayton Kershaw without giving up a top-50 player know what I’m talking about.  On the flipside, when a young stud comes up and bombs, it’s amazing how quickly owners will abandon him to move on to the next shiny prospect.

Let’s take a look at some former top-prospect pitchers and their numbers from 2008.  Some of these guys you’ll still be able to acquire at a good value, thanks to their past struggles.  Others may provide an opportunity to move while they are still appealing to another bargain-hungry GM.

Gavin Floyd - Since entering the league in 2004, the former BA Top-10 prospect has struggled mightily.  This year, however, his 3.19ERA and 1.10WHIP over 90.1IP are making this look like a breakout season for the 25-year-old.  If you’ve got this guy, then you’re the envy of your keeper leaguemates.  Or so you hope.

Floyd’s allowing a miniscule 12.8% LD% this year, resulting in that incredibly low BABIP.  A pitchers’ opponent LD% and BABIP are not repeatable skills, they are luck-based, primarily.  This is not sustainable.
Verdict: Cash in on Floyd before he hits the mother of all corrections.

Zack Greinke - After dropping a 3.97ERA and 1.17WHIP on the major leagues at age 21, Greinke was seen by many as a future ace.  Most of us know his backstory of mental issues by now, so suffice it to say he hasn’t come through on those projections.  After a spectacular April, he’s struggled a bit in May and June.

Looking at xFIP, it would seem Greinke’s been lucky with his 3.40ERA.  However, his control is good, and he’s striking guys out at a decent clip.   He’s also averaging over 6.6IP a start, which helps in the Win dept.  Despite the slight flyball tendencies, there’s a lot to like.
Verdict: Greinke’s not coming cheaply if you don’t have him, but I wouldn’t sell high either.

Edwin Jackson - Another guy who broke into the majors early, Edwin has struggled since his debut at 20 years old.  After suffering through years of arm problems and inconsistency, he’s looking like a league-average starter for the first time.

The one thing Edwin has going for him is a power sinker.  He’ll always keep the ball on the ground well, but there really haven’t been any signs of improvement in his numbers.  He’s missing fewer bats than ever, without much improvement in control.
Verdict: Hold.  He doesn’t have Floyd’s gaudy numbers, so he’s probably worth more to you than you’ll get in trade.  Watch the K:BB for improvement.

Andrew Miller - The #6 pick in the 2006 draft was expected to move quickly to the majors, and do well once he got there.  The first part happened, but Miller has struggled since he hit the bigs.

I’m excited about Miller as a buy-low opportunity.  He’s been inconsistent this year, but his xFIP shows that his 5.07ERA has been a lot of bad luck.  He has also been getting more ground balls lately, and is showing improvement over last year in every category–even though his WHIP and ERA make him look like a bust.
Verdict: Buy if you can.  Control may be an issue for a while, but he’s a Brandon Webb clone.

Mike Pelfrey - Pelfrey’s fastball has always landed him high on prospect lists, and in the minds of fantasy GMs.  His poor control and lack of any decent secondary offerings have limited him so far.  However, there are still fans out there for what Pelfrey’s bringing.

I am not one of those fans.  Pelfrey’s groundball tendencies are encouraging, but his lack of control and K’s show that his 4.30ERA isn’t for real.  A good breaking pitch could make him an above-average starter, but there are a lot of relievers out there you could say the same thing about.
Verdict: Sell, if you’ve got an interested buyer.

Anybody I missed that you’d like to talk about?  This is an area where you can do really well with pitchers if you make some smart risks.  Next time we’ll look at how some post-hype hitters are doing, so email me if you’ve got any questions, comments, or suggestions.