Crooked Pitch

Minnesota Twins hurler Kevin Slowey and Tampa Bay reliever Grant Balfour seem to have been able to overcome names that shouldn’t lend well to Major League pitchers. But, it looks like Cincinnati’s Homer Bailey isn’t so lucky.

Bailey has been at the top of the Reds prospect list for years now. That might not be the case any more as he had a very rough 2008 season, both in the minors and at the big league level.

In 19 minor league starts, Bailey went 4-7 with a 4.77 ERA. He gave up ten home runs in 111.1 innings and had a 2.08 (96:46) strikeout to walk ratio. In his eight starts at the Major League level, Bailey went 0-6 with a 7.93 ERA. He gave up eight home runs in 36.1 innings of work and had a 1.05 (18:17) strikeout to walk ratio. Hitters bolstered their batting averages against Bailey as he registered a .378 batting average against at the big league level.

Now, the first thing most Bailey supporters will say right here is that he’s only 22-years-old. “Give the kid a break!”. While there is some legitimacy to that statement, let me tell you why, from a fantasy point of view, Bailey shouldn’t be given any more chances.

Homer Bailey just isn’t progressing as a pitcher. At 22-years-old you expect a kid to take some lumps. But, Bailey is getting worse as time goes by. Take a look at this:

• His Minor League ERA in 2007 was 3.82 in 14 starts. It was 4.77 in 2008 in 19 starts.
• Minor League hitters hit .281 against him in 2008, but only .229 in 2007.
• His MLB ERA ballooned from 5.76 in 2007 to 7.93 in 2008.
• He averaged giving up one home run per start in 2008, but only one every three starts in 2007 at the Major League level.
• And, as mentioned above, Major League hitters are hitting 121 points better against him in 2008 (.378) than they were in 2007 (.257).

When it comes to your fantasy baseball team, Homer Bailey should only be on your roster if you’re in a deep keeper league. And even in deep keeper leagues, I can rattle off many players who might be better options in 2009 who are the same age as Bailey and in similar situations (same age, not superstars yet like Longoria or Cueto, etc.) Players like Pablo Sandoval, Eric Hurley, Matt Harrison, Carlos Gonzalez, and Gio Gonzalez could all see better fantasy 2009’s than Homer Bailey.

Until Bailey shows that he can live up to expectations (and I supposed I should have said if instead of until), Bailey is better left to some other fantasy GM to take a chance on.

Update (10/23/2008 10:41 AM) : Reds beat writer John Fay answered a Homer Bailey question in his blog post today and stated that Bailey could be headed to the bullpen with the log jam of starting pitching talent on the Reds roster. That would surely kill Bailey’s fantasy value unless he took earned the closer’s job.