Crooked Pitch

It’s already February, pitchers and catchers reporting is just around the corner, football season is over… it’s time to get serious about fantasy baseball.

This Average Draft Position report is an interesting one. In January we saw some lists with big, BIG movers. Todays list can be described with one word; normalization. Over the past week at Mock Draft Central no player had a double digit (percentage wise) move in either direction of their ADP. To me this means that fantasy GM’s are calming down with their shuffling of players on their ranking lists for a while. This is typical as the lists in January needed some tweaking, but now that the tweaking is done, things should stay pretty similar until Spring Training gets going. As Spring Training progresses, the ADP charts will come alive again with rapid and dramatic risers and droppers.

Headed Up

• Hanley Ramirez | Florida Marlins | +7.4% - The rich get richer. Ramirez has been in the top spot for a while now. What this jump means is that more and more fantasy GM’s are agreeing that Hanley is the best selection in this draft. His ADP is 1.35, which is up from 1.45 last week.
• Chase Utley | Philadelphia Phillies | +7.2% - Utley is moving up the ADP ranks quickly as fears of his injured hip subside. He’s being taken in the early to middle second round (17.21 ADP) instead of the middle of the round (18.45 ADP) last week.
• Brandon Lyon | Detroit Tigers | +6.1% - Lyon signed with the Tigers last week and hasn’t been given the closers job, but will compete for it against Fernando Rodney in Spring Training. Lyon’s ADP rose from 290.88 to just inside a 23-round draft at 274.10.
• Ubaldo Jimenez | Colorado Rockies | +5.6% - This 25-year-old just inked a new deal and is a solid last round flier for strikeouts and wins in a mixed-league. His ADP rose from 285.63 to a 23rd round 270.55.
• Chris Davis | Texas Rangers | +4.7% - Whether it’s third base or first base, fantasy GM’s don’t care. Davis belted 17 home runs in 295 at-bats last season and his sleeper status is still skyrocketing. His ADP is a 6th round 68.67, up from last weeks 71.89.
• Scott Baker | Minnesota Twins | +3.8% - 27-year-old baker struck out 141 last season and won 11 games in 28 starts. He’s being taken in the 19th round (228.01 ADP) now instead of the 20th round (236.62 ADP) last week.

Other notables: Andy Pettitte (+7.5%) and Dustin Pedroia (+4.5%)

Headed Down

• Troy Glaus | St. Louis Cardinals | -7.9% - Glaus had shoulder surgery and could miss up to three months. This has dropped him out of most mixed-league drafts (293.80 ADP), down from an ADP of 270.46.
• David Wright | New York Mets | -3.7% - Before you go crazy, this drop has nothing to do with Wrights ability as a fantasy stud. It’s simply a matter of numbers. If one elite stud risings big, other elite studs need to drop. Hanley Ramirez’ huge rise last week caused Wright to fall to an ADP of 4.34 from 4.18.
• Albert Pujols | St. Louis Cardinals | -3.4% - See David Wright above. Pujols dropped from 2.88 ADP to 2.98 ADP. This isn’t a big deal at all.
• Chris Volstad | Florida Marlins | -2.9% - Volstad is a solid late round sleeper pick. This is an interesting drop in perceived fantasy value here. He went from an ADP of 270.37 to 278.55.
• A.J. Burnett | New York Yankees | -2.6% - Is this the beginning of a lot of fantasy GM’s fearing that Burnett’s injury woes are not behind him? His ADP dropped to a 9th round 99.55 from 96.99.
• Brad Ziegler | Oakland Athletics | -1.9% - Ziegler and Devine are both in the running to become the A’s new closer. This makes it look like people are starting to think that Devine is in the drivers seat. Zieglers ADP dropped to 219.16 from 217.62 while Joey Devine has an ADP of 191.02.

Other notables: Prince Fiedler (-3.1%), Rafael Furcal (-2.6%), Ian Kinsler (-2.5%) and Matt Cain (-1.2%)

We just looked at the hitters, now it’s time for another installment of the biggest risers from an Average Draft Position standpoint; the pitcher edition. This data, as always, is tabulated over at Mock Draft Central.

1. Homer Bailey | Cincinnati Reds | +50.6% - The Reds are asking the Yankees for either Xavier Nady or Nick Swisher, but talks are stalling as the Yanks want Homer Bailey in return. This is causing a frenzy of mock draft participants grabbing Bailey, just in case this trade comes to fruition. Bailey’s ADP has risen in the last week from 412.57 into the 23rd round at 274.01.
2. Jason Isringhausen | Free Agent | +21.9% - Isringhausen is looking into signing with four teams. At each destination he’d have an opportunity to close. Are people desperate enough to draft a relief pitcher who isn’t currently on a team and who doesn’t have a closer job 100% locked up? Apparently the answer is, “Yes.”. Isringhausen’s ADP has risen from 339.98 into the 23rd round at 274.01.
3. Barry Zito | San Francisco Giants | +19.3% - Zito is living proof of the old baseball addage, “you can be a bad left-handed pitcher and still pitch it in the big leagues”. Seriously guys??? Zito was 10-17 last season with a 5.15 ERA and led the majors in walk rate. Why has he risen in the last week from a 23rd round ADP of 257.47 to an 18th round ADP of 215.74? Zito should be undrafted in mixed-leagues until he can assure you he won’t start the season 0-8 again. And by assure, I mean pitch his ass off!
4. Brian Fuentes | Los Angeles Angels | +18.4% - Fuentes made last weeks list at the #2 spot. This week he’s still climbing. People are really starting to dig on Fuentes in the closer role in LA. He moved from the 15th round (172.67 ADP) to the 12th round (141.72 ADP).
5. John Lannan | Washington Nationals | +17.8% - Lannan, the Nationals ace, is starting to get some love from the mock draft world. He’s up into the 23rd round at 272.89 ADP from 321.57.

Other notables: Fernando Rodney (+17.0%), Masahide Kobayashi (+15.8%), Pedro Martinez (+14.6%), Manny Delcarmen (+13.3%), Todd Wellemeyer (+11.3%), Jeff Samardzija (+10.5%), and Tommy Hanson (+10.1%).