Crooked Pitch

I’m still catching up here on publishing the commentary from each selection in our slow mock draft. Take a look back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2,  round 3, round 4, and round 5.

• Round 6 : Pick 1(61) - @seniorcircuit - Geovany Soto - After the elite catchers were off the board I was surprised that Soto was still there for me. I don’t mind taking a catcher early, especially in 2 catcher leagues. Who even started the 2 catcher policy? I can see Soto make a slight regression as pitchers get used to seeing him but will still put up quality numbers from the catchers spot.  I project Soto at 70/22/85/.275
• Round 6 : Pick 2(62) - @jasoncollette - Chris Davis - This was going to be Votto’s spot but alas, someone loves him more than I do. I saw Davis go in the 5th round of the MLB expert draft I’m doing and at this rate,  he’s going to go in a 4th round by March. He will hit behind Kinsler, Young, Hamilton, and Cruz so there is plenty of potential for 35 homers, 100+ RBI, but anything over .265 is a bonus.
• Round 6 : Pick 3(63) - @dowdyism - Stephen Drew -He has the bloodlines, and 2008 saw the breakout of Stephen Drew. I was looking for either Drew or Geovany Soto on the turn, and once Soto was gone, it was an easy decision.  I missed out on the 2B run, so I wanted to be sure to get good production from SS. Last years numbers are a good baseline on what I expect in 2009.
• Round 6 : Pick 4(64) - @therotofeed - Hunter Pence - I think this is the year before the breakout year for Pence, which should still come out rather nicely. I’m guessing he won’t be as much of a feast and famine guy this year and I’m hunting for 90/30/90.
• Round 6 : Pick 5(65) - @sporer - Robinson Cano -I was ready to take Cano when I took Granderson so I’m pleased to see him fall another round to me. In a tough season, he still put a pretty usable line at second base. I expect a much better season in the area of 2007’s breakout campaign. The lineup in New York is still excellent meaning the R & RBI numbers will be plentiful and he should have a better batting average (nearing .300) if he can avoid hitting .242 for a half as in 2008.  I’m predicting a bounce back season for Cano and I’m happy to get him in the 6th.
• Round 6 : Pick 6(66) - @tommystv - Shane Victorino - Victorino was the last top 50 player I had on my board still remaining. Although I do watch for value players slipping I like to justify a need before I pull the trigger. I needed to address steals at some point and this is a value you pick almost 3 rds beyond where he skill set justified him going. I’d love to see that little bit of pop he had last year continue.
• Round 6 : Pick 7(67) - @xxldaddyo - Cliff Lee -I already took the best Catcher in baseball (Brian McCann) in the 4th Round so why not pare him up with the best Starting Pitcher in baseball last year: AL Cy Young winner Cliff Lee. Lee’s breakout year reminds me eerily of Chris Carpenters breakout season in 2004. Both were 29 when they came into their own and while it may not be reasonable to expect Lee to match last years SICK numbers, if he does 90% of that? I’d be a happy man.
• Round6 : Pick 8(68) - @jefeboy - Carlos Delgado -At this point I just needed power, and chose Delgado over Dunn because I think their HR totals will be in the same ballpark but Delgado should hurt my BA less.
• Round 6 : Pick 9(69) - @fakebaseball - Bobby Abreu -My pick of Bobby Abreu is an example of going with your rankings even though you dislike the player, and there are sexier picks on the board ahead of him. I have .285/16-18 HR/20 SB penciled in for Abreu, with a goodly amount of runs driven in and scored, because chances are wherever he lands (Cincinnati, perhaps?), he’ll be put in the middle of the order (regardless of whether or not he deserves it at this stage of his career). I fully recognize he’s a risk because he’s getting to the age where a precipitous decline can happen at any time, but I’ll take the risk, and the SBs, so I won’t have to suffer with “cheap speed” options later.
• Round 6 : Pick 10(70) - @TheRoundtable - Magglio Ordonez - I’m actually kicking myself because I missed the run on second basemen, so decided to fill in the outfield with who I feel is best available there at this point. The other positions seem relatively similar across the board over the next few players. Ordonez’s power numbers might be slightly down, but since his two-year injury run, he’s been healthy and providing good numbers for that Tigers offense. This is a guy that I have ranked in my top-50 (granted the end of it) that I was able to grab with pick 70.
• Round 6 : Pick 11(71) - @Angels2717 - Joe Nathan -Some might not think of taking Nathan as the first overall closer. But I believe this year, he will prove he is one of the best is not the best at his position. He has one of the lowest ERA’s of closers and is almost perfect on save oppurtunities. He has been very consistent throughout the past couple of years. No, he might not be the highest strikeout guy, but you don’t take closers just for their strikeouts.
• Round 6 : Pick 12(72) - @crookedpitch - Ryan Ludwick - I don’t expect Ludwick to approach a .300 batting average again in 2009. However, I do feel that 30 homers and 100 RBI are a distinct possibility. How could I pass up those numbers in the 6th round? Plus, it does sort of fit in with my power hitters theme that I’ve got going on.

Everyone has been screaming for rankings. I wanted to wait for a while, but I’m also tired of being harassed.

Remember that it’s December 30th, and this list will surely change by the time the season starts. Also note that every team has at least one catcher on this list, some teams two.

There are some catchers who have been left off of this list, most notably Jason Varitek and Pudge Rodriguez. These players won’t be added until they are picked up by a Major League club.

Here are the 2009 fantasy catcher rankings.

1. Russell Martin | Los Angeles Dodgers - He may not hit as many home runs or drive in as many as McCann and Soto, but he scores more runs and steals bases. His ability to contribute in five categories makes him the #1 choice here.
2. Brian McCann | Atlanta Braves - McCann tied for the lead amongst catchers in home runs, finished second in RBI, and was one of three backstops to bat over .300 last season. Expect more of the same in 2009.
3. Joe Mauer | Minnesota Twins - Mauer led all catchers with a .328 batting average last season and even though his home run total isn’t in double digits, he drives in runs like a fiend and scores more than any catcher out there.
4. Geovany Soto | Chicago Cubs - Won Rookie of the Year honors and the hearts of fantasy GM’s who took a shot on the unproven youngster in the 2008 draft. Don’t expect to get Soto cheap in ‘09 but do plan on him mashing balls again, and again, and again.
5. Ryan Doumit | Pittsburgh Pirates - Enjoyed a breakout season in 2008 and sits just outside of the elite catchers of this list. There is potential for Doumit to join them by the end of ‘09.
6. Victor Martinez | Cleveland Indians - It’s unusual to see Martinez this low on a ranking list, but injuries slowed the star last year. His power should return and opportunities to play at first base some could help keep him healthy.
7. Chris Iannetta | Colorado Rockies - Broke out to the tune of 18 home runs in only 333 at-bats. This young slugger could even improve his power production for 2009.
8. Bengie Molina | San Francisco Giants - Molina led all catchers with 95 RBI, something he’s always done well. He’ll be 35-years-old this year so be wary of his ability to reach 530 at-bats again, but expect the power production to remain.
9. A.J. Pierzynski | Chicago White Sox - This guy quietly hits 13-16 home runs and bats around .270 every year. Expect much of the same this season as Pierzynski is the model of consistency.
10. Mike Napoli | Los Angeles Angels - Hit a sick 20 home runs in only 227 at-bats last season. His second half was much better than his first half, so don’t pay for full season consistency on draft day. But, do imagine what he could do with 500+ at-bats.
11. Kelly Shoppach | Cleveland Indians - Filled in swimmingly for Martinez last season. If the Indians find him at-bats or make a trade, Shoppach could improve on his 2008 numbers.
12. Ramon Hernandez | Cincinnati Reds - Was driven out of Baltimore by a top prospect, but you can expect similar numbers in Cincy.
13. Kurt Suzuki | Oakland Athletics - In his first full season, Suzuki entrenched himself as the every day catcher. He may approach double digit home runs, but his true value is his better than most batting average.
14. Chris Snyder | Arizona Diamondbacks - Hit 16 home runs in 334 at-bats last season and has even more power potential. But, he needs to improve his .237 batting average to convince the team to stop platooning him.
15. Dioner Navarro | Tampa Bay Rays - It’s unfair to compare him to Joe Mauer, but he does seem like a cheaper knock off to the Twins catcher. Beware of a slight batting average dip due to his unusually high 2008 hit rate of 32.1%.
16. Yadier Molina | St. Louis Cardinals - Did a lot of fantasy GM’s proud as you don’t usually get a .304 hitter from the waiver wire. Expect Molina’s batting average to drop a little, but not by enough to stop enjoying him as a solid #2 option at catcher.
17. Miguel Olivo | Kansas City Royals - Love his 12 home runs in 306 at-bats last season. Hate his 26.8% strikeout rate and his 2.2% walk rate. He’s probably better left to AL-only leagues unless he finds consistency and earns extra at-bats.
18. Gerald Laird | Detroit Tigers - He’s finally going to be the only guy in Detroit after fighting for time in Texas. He improved his strikeout rate last season and saw a 50+ point batting average increase. Don’t expect another gain like that, but feel free to take a late round flier as Laird might continue to improve as he doesn’t have to look over his shoulder anymore.
19. Jorge Posada | New York Yankees - Posada is 37-years-old and coming off of a major medical procedure that kills most hitters power potential. With recent additions to the team he won’t be given many opportunities to DH either. Posada is a risky pick for 2009.
20. Jesus Flores | Washington Nationals - Flores strikes out too much and doesn’t walk enough. But, the Nats think he’s their catcher of the future. He does have some pop.
21. Rod Barajas | Toronto Blue Jays - Barajas is a 33-year-old journeyman who doesn’t offer much to fantasy owners at all. His 11 home runs don’t really make up for the .249 batting average. He might even end up in a platoon situation in 2009.
22. Brian Schneider | New York Mets - Schneider gets a majority of the at-bats for the Mets because of his defensive skills. Until they replace one of these five categories with defense, Schneider is pretty useless on your mixed-league team.
23. Matt Weiters | Baltimore Orioles - Weiters hit 27 home runs in his 437 at-bats at the Advanced-A and Double-A level last season. That was good enough for the O’s to bid farewell to Ramon Hernandez, practically giving the starting job to Weiters as a 23-year-old rookie.
24. Jason Kendall | Milwaukee Brewers - Kendall had three consecutive years of hitting above .320 and stealing more than 20 bases. Unfortunately those years were 1998 through 2000. Kendall’s only fantasy value comes from his 500 plus at-bats. At that’s not worth much.
25. Jarrod Saltalamacchia | Texas Rangers - Salty had fewer than 200 at-bats last season as a forearm injury slowed him. When he was healthy he didn’t show his top prospect stuff of old. With two top catching prospects in his rear view mirror, Saltalamacchia is too dangerous to run with as your #1 catcher.
26. John Baker | Florida Marlins - Baker was impressive last season in 197 at-bats and should enter Spring Training as the expected starting catcher. His .299 batting average, good strikeout to walk ratio, and good on-base skills could lead to a nice season. But don’t expect too much power production from him.
27. Jeff Clement | Seattle Mariners - Clement will be given every opportunity to be the M’s every day catcher even though he stunk it up after being called up from Triple-A. He has a ton of potential and you could do worse than he with a last round flier for your #2 catcher spot.
28. Carlos Ruiz | Philadelphia Phillies - Ruiz is sharing at-bats behind the plate. And until he figures out how to hit higher than .219, he’ll remain useless to the fantasy world.
29. Nick Hundley | San Diego Padres - Hundley has shown some pop in the minors hitting 20 home runs in 2007 at the Double-A level. But, he’s never had a decent batting average and he showed his inability to hit Major League pitching last season as he only batted .237.
30. J.R. Towles | Houston Astros - Towles was as touted of a prospect going into last season as Geovany Soto. Soto hit 23 home runs. Towles batted .137 and was sent back to the minors. Towles should be given the opportunity to be the Astros every day catcher in 2009, but his leash will be short.
31. Taylor Teagarden | Texas Rangers - In only 47 at-bats last year Teagarden hit six home runs and batted .319. He’s still behind Saltalamacchia on the depth chart going into Spring Training. But, if he wins the starting job, you’ll see his value skyrocket.
32. Kenji Johjima | Seattle Mariners - Johjima crashed and burned last season batting .227 in 379 at-bats, finally losing his job to Jeff Clement. While Clement is a highly touted prospect, he won’t be given a lot of rope to hang himself with. Johjima could slide back into the starting role at any time. Whether or not he produces, well that’s another story.

Here are the fantasy baseball rankings for the top ten catchers for the 2008 season. I will also list the predictions from the pre-season at the bottom of this post for comparison.

1. Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins - Mauer scored more runs and out hit every catcher in MLB. And the margin with which he did so was amazingly large. 98 runs | 9 HR | 85 RBI | 1 SB | .328
2. Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves - Tough decision here as each of the top three catchers are statistically different, and studly. McCann’s home runs and RBI, plus his .301 batting average, almost warranted top billing, but Mauer was just too good. But you can argue for any of these three guys to top the list. 68 runs | 23 HR | 87 RBI | 5 SB | .301
3. Russell Martin, Los Angeles Dodgers - Martin is the most well rounder catcher, statistically speaking, of the whole bunch. Had he hit closer to .300, he’d easily be the number one ranked catcher. He also played 11 games at third base. That’ll help out his knees from time to time, and if 11 games is enough to qualify at a position in your fantasy league, Martin’s value rises. 87 runs | 13 HR | 69 RBI | 18 SB | .280
4. Geovany Soto, Chicago Cubs - Soto’s numbers are very similar to those of McCann’s. But his lower batting average keep him out of the elite three at the catcher position. 66 runs | 23 HR | 86 RBI | 0 SB | .285
5. Ryan Doumit, Pittsburgh Pirates - Emerged in 2008, maybe you can even call it a breakout. His numbers were fantastic and it’s fun to imagine how good they would have been if he’d received 100 more at-bats. 71 runs | 15 HR | 69 RBI | 2 SB | .318
6. Bengie Molina, San Francisco Giants - You gotta love his RBI production and his home run total and batting average were solid too. It’s too bad he didn’t score a lot. 46 runs | 16 HR | 95 RBI | 0 SB | .292
7. Kelly Shoppach, Cleveland Indians - He only got the opportunity to catch full time when Victor Martinez went down. But, he sure did make the most of his 352 at-bats. 67 runs | 21 HR | 55 RBI | 0 SB | .261
8. A.J. Pierzynski, Chicago White Sox - These are pretty good numbers for the eighth ranked catcher on this list. 66 runs | 13 HR | 60 RBI | 1 SB | .281
9. Chris Iannetta, Colorado Rockies - Iannetta finally lived up to his potential and had a break-out season. Remember that these numbers were produced from only 333 at-bats. 50 runs | 18 HR | 65 RBI | 0 SB | .264
10. Ramon Hernandez, Baltimore Orioles - Hernandez bounced back from a miserable 2007 season . He got his power stroke back, but it’d be nice if the O’s could drive him across the plate a bit more. 49 runs | 15 HR | 65 RBI | 0 SB | .257

Listed below are the pre-season rankings. You can see how great I predicted things or laugh at how far off I was.

2008 American League Fantasy Baseball Catcher Rankings

1. Victor Martinez | Cleveland Indians
2. Jorge Posada | New York Yankees
3. Joe Mauer | Minnesota Twins
4. Kenji Johjima | Seattle Mariners
5. Jarrod Saltalamacchia | Texas Rangers
6. Ivan Rodriguez | Detroit Tigers
7. Jason Varitek | Boston Red Sox
8. Ramon Hernandez | Baltimore Orioles
9. A.J. Pierzynski | Chicago White Sox
10. John Buck | Kansas City Royals
11. Kurt Suzuki | Oakland Athletics
12. Mike Napoli | Los Angeles Angels
13. Dioner Navarro | Tampa Bay Rays
14. Gregg Zaun | Toronto Blue Jays
15. Miguel Olivo | Kansas City Royals
16. Gerald Laird | Texas Rangers
17. Mike Redmond | Minnesota Twins
18. Jeff Mathis | Los Angeles Angels
19. Kelly Shoppach | Cleveland Indians

2008 National League Fantasy Baseball Catcher Rankings

1. Russell Martin | Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Brian McCann | Atlanta Braves
3. Bengie Molina | San Francisco Giants
4. Carlos Ruiz | Philadephia Phillies
5. Johnny Estrada | FA
6. Ronny Paulino | Pittsburgh Pirates
7. Paul LoDuca | Washington Nationals
8. Geovany Soto | Chicago Cubs
9. David Ross | Cincinnati Reds
10. J.R.Towels | Houston Astros
11. Michael Barrett | San Diego Padres
12. Chris Snyder | Arizona Diamondbacks
13. Ryan Doumit | Pittsburgh Pirates
14. Yorvit Torreabla | Colorado Rockies
15. Yadier Molina | St. Louis Cardinals
16. Jason Kendall | Milwaukee Brewers
17. Brian Schneider |New York Mets
18. Josh Bard | San Diego Padres
19. Javier Valentin | Cincinnati Reds
20. Chris Iannetta | Colorado Rockies
21. Ramon Castro | New York Mets
22. Miguel Montero | Arizona Diamondbacks
23. Jesus Flores | Washington Nationals

The National League had six MVP’s this week compared to the American League’s two. It was all hitters for the NL and all pitchers for the AL. Does good pitching beat good hitting, or vice versa? I guess we’ll find out next week in NYC at the All-Star game.

Here are the week 14 fantasy baseball MVP’s.

Catcher: Geovany Soto | Chicago Cubs - Soto’s slash stats were impressive last week at .370/.452/.667. He also hit two home runs, scored six times and drove in five. And how can I not select Soto for the MVP award this week as he became the first rookie catcher ever to be selected to start an All-Star game for the National League?

First Base: Adam LaRoche | Pittsburgh Pirates - LaRoche had an impressive slugging percentage last week of 1.000 as five of his nine hits were extra base hits (two home runs, two doubles, and a triple). He had a batting average of .474, scored five times and drove in eight runs.

Second Base: Brandon Phillips | Cincinnati Reds - Two hitters deserved this award this week, but I am only giving it to Phillips, since snubbing ball players in en vogue lately. Ian Kinsler was a very close second place, but Phillips’ extra RBI’s were the icing on the cake. Phillips batted .481/.500/.667 with 4 runs scored, one home run, nine RBI, and two stolen bases.

Shortstop: J.J. Hardy | Milwaukee Brewers - It’s amazing when we have a week where Hanley Ramirez hits three home runs, drives in eight and scores seven times but isn’t even considered for this weekly MVP award! Hardy batted .600/.625/1.367 with eight runs scored, six home runs, 12 RBI, and a stolen base, and was arguably the most valuable fantasy baseball player last week.

Third Base: Alex Rodriguez | New York Yankees - ARod only had eight hits last week, but they all counted in a big way. He batted .333/.448/.750 with eight runs scored, three home runs, seven RBI, and three stolen bases.

Outfield: Cody Ross | Florida Marlins - Here’s another situation where excellence wasn’t good enough for a player to win the weekly MVP award. Matt Holliday belted three  homers, drove in 10, and stole three bases, but couldn’t hold a candle last week to Ross’ .500/.529/.813 with eight runs scored, two home runs, and 15 RBI.

Starting Pitcher: Roy Halladay | Toronto Blue Jays - Halladay beat up on the American League West last week earning wins over the Angels and the Mariners. He pitched 16 innings and struck out 13 while only walking one. His ERA was only 1.12 and his WHIP was 0.69.

Relief Pitcher: Brandon Morrow | Seattle Mariners - Morrow has slid into the closer’s role very nicely in Seattle. Last week he notched three saves, one win, and struck out five while only walking one in 4.1 innings of work. His ERA was perfect at 0.00 and his WHIP was 0.23.

If not for one Boston pitcher, the National League would have swept these fantasy baseball MVP awards this week. Nice job NL!

Catcher: Geovany Soto | Chicago Cubs - Soto batted .391/.481/.870 while scoring six times. He also hit two home runs with 9 RBI. Russell Martin also had a good week going .304/.448/.435 with six runs, a home run, four RBI and a stolen base, but his performance was clearly a second place performance.

First Base: Adrian Gonzalez | San Diego Padres - Gonzalez narrowly edged out Lance Berkman (who won in week 4) for this week’s prize scoring seven times and knocking in six RBI with four home runs. Gonzalez averaged .385/.385/.885 last week.

Second Base: Chase Utley | Philadelphia Phillies - Utley becomes the first three time winner of this award as scored five times, knocked three home runs, had five RBI, and even stole a base. His slash stats last week were .348/.423./783. He narrowly edged out Placido Polanco while Dan Uggla also garnered consideration.

Third Base: Jose Bautista | Pittsburgh Pirates - Bautista hit three home runs last week while scoring six times and driving in seven runs. He averaged .333/.370/.750 on the road to win this award .

Shortstop: Rafael Furcal | Los Angeles Dodgers - Furcal finished just ahead of Jose Reyes for this award largely on his 11 runs scored. He also hit a home run, drove in four and stole two bases. His slash stats were .393/.452/.571.

Outfield: Matt Kemp | Los Angeles Dodgers - Kemp was the clear-cut winner this week and the second straight Dodger on the list this week. Kemp hit .407/.433/.556 with seven runs scored, 11 RBI, and six stolen bases.

Starting Pitcher: Tim Hudson | Atlanta Braves - It usually takes a two-start pitcher to win this award, but Hudson was special last Friday night (and I was lucky enough to see this in person). Hudson faced off against Edison Volquez in a fantastic pitchers duel. Hudson pitched a complete game shutout, allowing only three hits while striking out 10 and walking zero.

Relief Pitcher: Jonathan Papelbon | Boston Red Sox - Papelbon had only one save last week, but he also got two wins. In 4.1 innings of work he struck out three, walked zero, and gave up two hits on his way to a 0.00 ERA and a 0.46 WHIP.