Crooked Pitch

It’s time for another installment of movers and shakers on the Mock Draft Central Average Draft Position Report.

Headed Up

• Andy Pettitte | New York Yankees | +7.7% - You knew the Pettitte re-signing would begin his slow rise in ADP. This is his second consecutive week with a 7+ percentage point rise. He’s now into the 23rd round at 276.76 from 298.00.
• Ryan Braun | Milwaukee Brewers | +7.1% - Braun is firmly entrenching himself in the first round as he goes from an ADP of 10.41 to 9.72.
• Ian Kinsler | Texas Rangers | +4.1% - There has been much debate so far about which second baseman (Utley, Pedroia or Kinsler) deserves to be the highest ranked at his position. This week it was Kinsler as he went from an ADP of 11.65 to 11.19 and was the only one of the three to rise in ADP. (for what it’s worth, I disagree and rank Kinsler third out of these guys)
• Grant Balfour | Tampa Bay Rays | +3.8% - Balfour just penned a one-year contract with the Rays and had a 1.54 ERA with 82 strikeouts in 58.1 innings of work. He’s a superb set-up man and a must own if your league uses holds. He’s up to a 290.84 ADP from 301.86.
• Matt Wieters | Baltimore Orioles | +3.2% - Wieters climbed last week from a mid-11th-round 127.36 to an early 11th round 123.45. All without seeing a Major League pitch.
• Tim Lincecum | San Francisco Giants | +3.0% - Lincecum has almost climbed into the second round as he’s sitting at 26.05 from an ADP of 26.82. Santana is still the highest ranked pitcher on the board at 18.58, but I’m not sure that I wouldn’t take Lincecum before him.

Other noteables: James Shields (+2.0%) and Brandon Lyon (+2.7%)

Headed Down

• Melvin Mora | Baltimore Orioles | -6.1% - Is it Mora’s age (36) or the Orioles addition of Wiggington that had fantasy GM’s selecting Mora later in mock drafts? His ADP dropped from a 17th round 204.14 to a 19th round 217.34.
• Matt Holliday | Oakland A’s | -6.0% - Holliday moved last week from an ADP of 13.37 to 14.23. It looks as if he’s completely out of contention for a first round selection, which is probably as it should be since he’s no longer hitting in Coors Field.
• Mike Jacobs | Kansas City Royals | -5.6% - A crowded Royals first base depth chart and his inability to het lefties migt have spawned his drop to an ADP in the 22nd round of 263.05 from the 21st round 248.37 he was at last week.
• Ubaldo Jimenez | Colorado Rockies | -4.2% - Jimenez just rose 5.6% last week after signing a new deal and now drops out of the 23rd round to 282.36 from 270.55 this week. WTF???
• Chien-Ming Wang | New York Yankees | -3.2% - He’s not a strikeout threat or a very good base runner, but Wang, if healthy, should perform better than his ADP of 215.35 (19th round) predicts. Last week he fell from 208.37 (18th round).
• John Smoltz | Boston Red Sox | -3.0 - Smoltz fell from an ADP of 260.48 to 268.64 last week. Are February mock drafters finally realizing that Smoltz is in no hurry to hit the mound in Fenway? The Red Sox are going to make 125% sure that Smoltz is healthy and only care about him helping out in the stretch run and the playoffs.

Other noteables: Ryan Howard (-5.1%), Jason Giambi (-4.4%), Mark DeRosa (-4.0%), Alex Rodriguez (-3.8%), Jorge Cantu (-3.1%) and Justin Upton (-3.0).

Minnesota Twins hurler Kevin Slowey and Tampa Bay reliever Grant Balfour seem to have been able to overcome names that shouldn’t lend well to Major League pitchers. But, it looks like Cincinnati’s Homer Bailey isn’t so lucky.

Bailey has been at the top of the Reds prospect list for years now. That might not be the case any more as he had a very rough 2008 season, both in the minors and at the big league level.

In 19 minor league starts, Bailey went 4-7 with a 4.77 ERA. He gave up ten home runs in 111.1 innings and had a 2.08 (96:46) strikeout to walk ratio. In his eight starts at the Major League level, Bailey went 0-6 with a 7.93 ERA. He gave up eight home runs in 36.1 innings of work and had a 1.05 (18:17) strikeout to walk ratio. Hitters bolstered their batting averages against Bailey as he registered a .378 batting average against at the big league level.

Now, the first thing most Bailey supporters will say right here is that he’s only 22-years-old. “Give the kid a break!”. While there is some legitimacy to that statement, let me tell you why, from a fantasy point of view, Bailey shouldn’t be given any more chances.

Homer Bailey just isn’t progressing as a pitcher. At 22-years-old you expect a kid to take some lumps. But, Bailey is getting worse as time goes by. Take a look at this:

• His Minor League ERA in 2007 was 3.82 in 14 starts. It was 4.77 in 2008 in 19 starts.
• Minor League hitters hit .281 against him in 2008, but only .229 in 2007.
• His MLB ERA ballooned from 5.76 in 2007 to 7.93 in 2008.
• He averaged giving up one home run per start in 2008, but only one every three starts in 2007 at the Major League level.
• And, as mentioned above, Major League hitters are hitting 121 points better against him in 2008 (.378) than they were in 2007 (.257).

When it comes to your fantasy baseball team, Homer Bailey should only be on your roster if you’re in a deep keeper league. And even in deep keeper leagues, I can rattle off many players who might be better options in 2009 who are the same age as Bailey and in similar situations (same age, not superstars yet like Longoria or Cueto, etc.) Players like Pablo Sandoval, Eric Hurley, Matt Harrison, Carlos Gonzalez, and Gio Gonzalez could all see better fantasy 2009’s than Homer Bailey.

Until Bailey shows that he can live up to expectations (and I supposed I should have said if instead of until), Bailey is better left to some other fantasy GM to take a chance on.

Update (10/23/2008 10:41 AM) : Reds beat writer John Fay answered a Homer Bailey question in his blog post today and stated that Bailey could be headed to the bullpen with the log jam of starting pitching talent on the Reds roster. That would surely kill Bailey’s fantasy value unless he took earned the closer’s job.