Crooked Pitch

We just looked at the hitters, now it’s time for another installment of the biggest risers from an Average Draft Position standpoint; the pitcher edition. This data, as always, is tabulated over at Mock Draft Central.

1. Homer Bailey | Cincinnati Reds | +50.6% - The Reds are asking the Yankees for either Xavier Nady or Nick Swisher, but talks are stalling as the Yanks want Homer Bailey in return. This is causing a frenzy of mock draft participants grabbing Bailey, just in case this trade comes to fruition. Bailey’s ADP has risen in the last week from 412.57 into the 23rd round at 274.01.
2. Jason Isringhausen | Free Agent | +21.9% - Isringhausen is looking into signing with four teams. At each destination he’d have an opportunity to close. Are people desperate enough to draft a relief pitcher who isn’t currently on a team and who doesn’t have a closer job 100% locked up? Apparently the answer is, “Yes.”. Isringhausen’s ADP has risen from 339.98 into the 23rd round at 274.01.
3. Barry Zito | San Francisco Giants | +19.3% - Zito is living proof of the old baseball addage, “you can be a bad left-handed pitcher and still pitch it in the big leagues”. Seriously guys??? Zito was 10-17 last season with a 5.15 ERA and led the majors in walk rate. Why has he risen in the last week from a 23rd round ADP of 257.47 to an 18th round ADP of 215.74? Zito should be undrafted in mixed-leagues until he can assure you he won’t start the season 0-8 again. And by assure, I mean pitch his ass off!
4. Brian Fuentes | Los Angeles Angels | +18.4% - Fuentes made last weeks list at the #2 spot. This week he’s still climbing. People are really starting to dig on Fuentes in the closer role in LA. He moved from the 15th round (172.67 ADP) to the 12th round (141.72 ADP).
5. John Lannan | Washington Nationals | +17.8% - Lannan, the Nationals ace, is starting to get some love from the mock draft world. He’s up into the 23rd round at 272.89 ADP from 321.57.

Other notables: Fernando Rodney (+17.0%), Masahide Kobayashi (+15.8%), Pedro Martinez (+14.6%), Manny Delcarmen (+13.3%), Todd Wellemeyer (+11.3%), Jeff Samardzija (+10.5%), and Tommy Hanson (+10.1%).

Minnesota Twins hurler Kevin Slowey and Tampa Bay reliever Grant Balfour seem to have been able to overcome names that shouldn’t lend well to Major League pitchers. But, it looks like Cincinnati’s Homer Bailey isn’t so lucky.

Bailey has been at the top of the Reds prospect list for years now. That might not be the case any more as he had a very rough 2008 season, both in the minors and at the big league level.

In 19 minor league starts, Bailey went 4-7 with a 4.77 ERA. He gave up ten home runs in 111.1 innings and had a 2.08 (96:46) strikeout to walk ratio. In his eight starts at the Major League level, Bailey went 0-6 with a 7.93 ERA. He gave up eight home runs in 36.1 innings of work and had a 1.05 (18:17) strikeout to walk ratio. Hitters bolstered their batting averages against Bailey as he registered a .378 batting average against at the big league level.

Now, the first thing most Bailey supporters will say right here is that he’s only 22-years-old. “Give the kid a break!”. While there is some legitimacy to that statement, let me tell you why, from a fantasy point of view, Bailey shouldn’t be given any more chances.

Homer Bailey just isn’t progressing as a pitcher. At 22-years-old you expect a kid to take some lumps. But, Bailey is getting worse as time goes by. Take a look at this:

• His Minor League ERA in 2007 was 3.82 in 14 starts. It was 4.77 in 2008 in 19 starts.
• Minor League hitters hit .281 against him in 2008, but only .229 in 2007.
• His MLB ERA ballooned from 5.76 in 2007 to 7.93 in 2008.
• He averaged giving up one home run per start in 2008, but only one every three starts in 2007 at the Major League level.
• And, as mentioned above, Major League hitters are hitting 121 points better against him in 2008 (.378) than they were in 2007 (.257).

When it comes to your fantasy baseball team, Homer Bailey should only be on your roster if you’re in a deep keeper league. And even in deep keeper leagues, I can rattle off many players who might be better options in 2009 who are the same age as Bailey and in similar situations (same age, not superstars yet like Longoria or Cueto, etc.) Players like Pablo Sandoval, Eric Hurley, Matt Harrison, Carlos Gonzalez, and Gio Gonzalez could all see better fantasy 2009’s than Homer Bailey.

Until Bailey shows that he can live up to expectations (and I supposed I should have said if instead of until), Bailey is better left to some other fantasy GM to take a chance on.

Update (10/23/2008 10:41 AM) : Reds beat writer John Fay answered a Homer Bailey question in his blog post today and stated that Bailey could be headed to the bullpen with the log jam of starting pitching talent on the Reds roster. That would surely kill Bailey’s fantasy value unless he took earned the closer’s job.

Homer Bailey, the Cincinnati Reds uber pitching prospect, still isn’t pitching in Cincinnati. But he’s tearing up Triple-A hitters. Harang, Arroyo, Cueto and Volquez seem pretty safe right now, but Matt Belisle needs to show Dusty Baker that he deserves that 5th rotation spot more than Bailey.

If that happens, Bailey may be promoted to the big leagues and used in a relief role.

“I haven’t thought of him as anything other than a starter,” Jocketty said. “I haven’t really talked to anybody about that.”

Bailey, a 21-year-old right-hander, is doing what he’s done the last three years: Dominating in the minors. He’s 2-1 with a 1.95 ERA for Triple-A Louisville.

Jocketty brought up Adam Wainwright in St. Louis as a reliever. Wainwright went 2-1 with a 3.12 ERA in 61 relief appearances in 2006. Last year, he was 14-12 with a 3.70 ERA as a starter.

Jocketty said there becomes a point when a pitcher has little to prove in the minors.

“When a guy continues to do well at that level, yeah,” Jocketty said. “There are some things they had him working on. From what I understand, he’s done well with what they’ve asked him.