Crooked Pitch

I wrote an article over at FanHouse this morning about the Cubs decision to announce Carlos Marmol as their closer heading into the 2010 season. I may have been a little hard on Marmol with this statement.

While this is good news for Marmol, it’s more a result of Gregg stinking in the closer’s role, more so then Marmol beating him out for the job.

Since taking over the closer role Marmol has a 2.93 ERA and an 1.80 strikeout to walk ratio (18:10 K:BB). Digging a little deeper I found that Marmol has a 1.93 ERA in save situations and a 5.74 ERA in non-save situations. It looks as if the really poor pitching came when Marmol was in a set-up role, not as a closer.

Could Marmol be a completely different pitcher as a closer versus a set-up guy?

(more…)

Sports Illustrated reported it first. Matt Holliday is headed to Oakland and nobody knows what’s coming back to Colorado in return. ESPN thinks that pitcher Greg Smith will be included in the deal, but the big news (other than Holliday being traded) is that no news is known about the deal, yet.

As mentioned previously, this deal will most assuredly hurt Hollidays fantasy baseball value. At this point, I can only speculate how much. Holliday has never played a game at McAfee Coliseum. But, the park effects aren’t boding well for the ex-Rockie outfielder.

According to ESPN’s MLB Park Factor statistics Coors Field ranks third for home runs with a 1.299 HR factor and McAfee Coliseum ranks 14th with a 0.988 HR factor. Coors Field also ranks third with a 1.126 Runs factor, while McAfee Coliseum ranks 26th with a 0.916 Runs factor.

Another thing to consider when speculating about Hollidays 2009 fantasy value is the fact that he’ll have less support in the lineup hititng behind him. Whether it’s Sweeney, Cust, or Suzuki hitting in the clean up hole, you can be pretty sure they won’t offer the same protection as Garrett Atkins did in Colorado.

Update [Nov 10, 2008 4:01 PM EST]: This deal isn’t final yet, and likely won’t be for another 48 hours.

Update [Nov 11, 2008 1:27 PM EST]: The deal still hasn’t been finalized, but there is a better picture of the players involved. Colorado seems to be sending Holliday to Oakland for Carlos Gonzalez, Greg Smith, and Huston Street.

Update [Nov 12, 2008 2:30 PM EST]: The deal is now official. The A’s sent outfielder Carlos Gonzalez, reliever Huston Street and left-handed pitcher Greg Smith to the Rockies for Matt Holliday.

I just couldn’t contain all this closer goodness to the top 10 anymore. So, now the list is comprised of 15 closers. The top two are the same as in my last top fantasy closers list, and seven of the ten from the first fantasy baseball closer list are still around.

1. Mariano Rivera | New York Yankees - Rivera is still the stud of this group. I guess he’s not getting older, he’s getting better. Or maybe he just hasn’t faced the Red Sox enough to get banged around yet. Rivera has ten saves and a 12:0 strikeout to walk ratio in 15.0 innings pitched. His ERA is perfect at 0.00 and his WHIP is pretty darned close at 0.40.
2. Joe Nathan | Minnesota Twins - Nathan has 12 saves this season in 14.0 innings of work. He’s sporting a 14:3 strikeout to walk ratio and has a 1.93 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. He gave up two earned runs and three hits in his last outing (while still recording the save) or his ERA and WHIP would be even better.
3. Brad Lidge | Philadelphia Phillies - Lidge is nine for nine in save opportunities and hasn’t allowed an earned run in 17 innings, hence his 0.00 ERA. He also has a 0.82 WHIP and more than a strikeout per inning, with 18 strikeouts and 6 walks.
4. Jonathan Papelbon | Boston Red Sox - Papelbon has blown two saves in his last three attempts and hasn’t looked sharp for about a week now (although Julio Lugo should be given the blown save on May 7th, not Paps). He’s got 2 wins, 2 losses and 11 saves this season and Papelbon’s ERA has risen almost a whole point in the last week to 2.41. His WHIP is still below one at 0.91 and he still has a great strikeout to walk ratio of 11.50 (23:2).
5. Francisco Rodriguez | Los Angeles Angels - Rodriguez leads the majors in saves with 15 in 2008. But, that’s where his dominance stops. He’s got a weak 1.22 strikeout to walk ratio (11:9), and nowhere close to the 1.30 strikeouts per inning we’re used to seeing from him (2008 total is 0.72 K’s per inning). His ERA is 2.93 and his WHIP is 1.30.
6. Brandon Lyon | Arizona Diamondbacks - Lyon has seemingly forgotten about his two blown saves in early April. He’s been a perfect nine for nine in save opportunities since April 9th, and has a total of 10 saves for the year. In 16 innings of work he’s struck out 12 and only walked 2. His ERA is 2.25 and his WHIP is 1.00.
7. Joakim Soria | Kansas City Royals - Soria is certainly pitching well as he hasn’t given up an earned run all season. Heck, he’s only given up four hits in his 14.1 innings of work. Soria has eight saves and 16 strikeouts to only one walk so far. To go along with his perfect 0.00 ERA he has a 0.35 WHIP. Soria would be much higher on this list if the Royals played well enough to allow him more saves.
8. Billy Wagner | New York Mets - Wagner is in the same boat as Soria. His numbers are dominant, but he isn’t getting a great number of saves. He only has seven saves, but he’s sporting a 0.00 ERA and a 0.61 WHIP. He also has struck out 16 batters in 14.2 innings and only walked three.
9. Troy Percival | Tampa Bay Rays - Percival has been pretty solid this season going nine for ten in save opportunities. His only blown save is also the only appearance in which he’s given up any runs (he also gave up 4 of his 6 hits for the season in that one bad outing). In 14 innings of work, Percival has 13 strikeouts and only one walk. His ERA is 1.93 and he has a very nice 0.50 WHIP.
10. Matt Capps | Pittsburgh Pirates - Capps is a perfect nine for nine in save opportunities and has a 2.70 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP. While he doesn’t strike out a lot of hitters (only 10 in 16.2 innings), Capps has been the model of consistency, only blowing two saves since taking over the closers role in June of last season.
11. Jon Rauch | Washington Nationals - Rauch has recorded four saves since being promoted to the closers position when Chad Cordero went to the DL. Rauch has seven total saves for the year and 16 strikeouts in 18.1 innings of work. His ERA is 2.95 and his WHIP is 1.04.
12. Brian Wilson | San Francisco Giants - Wilson is tied for 4th in the majors with 11 saves. He’s also striking out more than one batter per inning (17 K’s in 16.0 innings) but his 3.38 ERA and 1.44 WHIP drop him down to 12th on this list.
13. Huston Street | Oakland A’s - Street is nine for eleven in save opportunities this season, and a good portion of his 3.86 ERA came from one bad outing to start the season against the Red Sox. He’s got a 3.60 strikeout to walk ratio (18:5) and more strikeouts (18) than innings pitched (16.1).
14. George Sherrill | Baltimore Orioles - It’s tough for me to place a guy who’s 2nd in MLB in saves down at #14 on the closers list, but Sherrill has some problems to go along with his 13 saves. He’s striking out less than a batter per inning (13 K’s in 16.1 innings), but more importantly he’s walked 10 batters in 16.1 innings of work. His ERA is also high at 4.41 and his WHIP is 1.29.
15. Kevin Gregg | Florida Marlins - Gregg has seven saves this season to go along with three wins and two losses. While his 2.89 ERA and 1.29 WHIP aren’t terrible, he’s got some problems with 12 strikeouts and 10 walks in 18.2 innings. And it’s not like Gregg had one bad game and that’s why his numbers are high. He has given up, at least, one run in six of the eighteen times he’s taken the mound this season.