Crooked Pitch

Today’s pitch count is 8.

1. When the Giants signed Jesus Guzman away from the A’s, they guaranteed him an invitation to spring training. In 415 minor league at-bats last season, Guzman batted .349/.404/.545 with 26 doubles and 17 home runs. He tore up the Venezuelan League recently and if he continues tearing it up this spring the Giants will need to look at getting him some big league at-bats. As a 3B/SS he might not take too much playing time from Pedro Sandoval, who also tore up the Venezuelan League (see above link), and the mix at shortstop got even more jumbled with the addition of Edgar Renteria. There are many questions left to be answered on the left side of the Giants infield.
2. I can’t wait to see Mark Prior climbing draft boards now that the Padres have signed him to a minor league deal. How many times over the next few months are we going to read, “If Prior is healthy…”? His average draft position is sure to be on the rise, but if you’re crazy enough to draft him you deserve the angst he’ll cause you by May. Prior is best left to the waiver wire until he make a few starts at the big league level. He just isn’t a draftable commodity.
3. As someone who just drafted Alex Gordon and Billy Butler this graph showing how probably Royals hitters are to hit a certain number of home runs in 2009 is a must read. To end the suspense… Butler’s chance of hitting 20 dingers is 15.4% and Gordon’s is 35%. There are other hitters in this study, so go check it out.
4. Scott Kazmir has put on 20 pounds in the off-season, but in a good way. The extra weight is due to hitting the gym.
5. The Dodgers are expected to cut Andruw Jones today. He’s been seen around the ATL quite a bit lately. Is he the answer to Braves need for a left fiedler?
6. You can add Miguel Montero to the list of catchers the Red Sox are interested in obtaining. Montero has pretty good pop, but has yet to show he can hit for any kind of average. And he’d probably platoon with Bard anyway, so this might not vault his fantasy value as much as you’d think.
7. One of the hottest sleeper candidates last season at the pitcher position was Ian Snell. That didn’t quite work out. His name is popping up again this off-season. Pat Lackey shares with us why that is.
8. Fantasy Ball Junkie has an interesting post about the five most fantasy significant transactions so far this off-season.

I just listed the top five hitters by rising ADP’s last week, now let’s move on the the pitchers.

1. Edwin Jackson | Detroit Tigers | +35.7 - I guess the Tigers aren’t the only folks that think that Jackson’s 24% decrease in ERA last season makes him a real deal sleeper. Mock drafters took Jackson in the 23rd round last week (260.57 ADP) instead of at an ADP of 353.63.
2. Brian Fuentes | Los Angeles Angels | +18.9% - With the move to Los Angeles Fuentes is moving into top 15 closer status at Mock Draft Central. He was a 15th round pick (174.56 ADP) last week but now is a 13th round pick at 146.77.
3. Ian Snell | Pittsburgh Pirates | +17.6% - Snell was supposed to be a high strikeout sleeper in ‘08, but his strikeout total dropped by 24% and his ERA ballooned. He says he’s working out, eating right and feeling better, and apparently drafters are believing him. I’m not ready to drink the Snell rebound Kool-Aid, yet. He’s being taken at pick #263.67 (23rd round) now instead of #310.20 last week.
4. Rafael Soriano | Atlanta Braves | +15.2% - Soriano is hurt and unsure of an opening day return. Not to mention he’s #2 on the bullpen depth chart to Mike Gonzalez. But he’s climbing the charts at MDC; up from 252.30 (21st round) to 219.05(19th round).
5. Chad Cordero | Free Agent | +7.0% - Lot’s of rumors about Cordero and where he’ll land. But the biggest question is can he return and be effective from shoulder surgery. He’s up from 269.87 (23rd round) to 252.30 (21st round) as some of you believe the answer is yes.

Here is a review of this weeks best pickups as reviewed on Roto Savants. It’s been an extra week since my last article so I am going to try to get back on track for weekly updates. I will still have one of each of the following (C, CI, MI, OF, SP and RP). I will include their current availability that may have changed since my initial review. The reviews are how I view the player today.

C - Kelly Shoppach- He will never replace Victor when healthy, but he is a good stopgap at the catcher position. I would use him as an injury fill in/ backup in mixed leagues. He has good power, but lacking in the average and OBP categories.

He is currently owned in 30% of leagues.

CI – Billy Butler - He was discussed on The True Guru show last week along with later suggestion Adam Jones. I think he has turned it around and with enough AB’s he will be a usable player. Don’t expect more than 10 homers in the second half, but a good pickup for a breakout second half.

He is only owned in 35% of CBS leagues.

MI – Nomar Garciaparra - Kind of a cheat here, but at 4 games played at SS he should be eligible by Friday for MI. Could be a surprise second half player if healthy with SS eligibility. He has shown some power since coming back and may help for those with a week SS/MI option.

He is only owned in 22% of CBS leagues.

OF – Adam Jones - A slow first half has dropped his ownership and made him a good pickup for a strong second half. The average is up over .280 now although the power is still lacking. I could still see a 15/15 season, which would make for a good pickup.

He is only owned in 39% of CBS leagues.

SP – Ian Snell - I was going to suggest Buchholz, but since my recommendation he has crossed my threshold of 60% ownership. Snell though is still available in many leagues and hopefully a DL stop has helped fix what was bothering him. His bad season has been based largely on luck factors and a dropped K/9. If he ups the K/9 to last years rate he should be a plus. He still won’t get wins in Pittsburgh though.

He is owned in 29% of leagues.

RP – Joel Zumaya - I still like him to close, but there have been rumblings of making him into a starter next year. I don’t think this will factor in this year and any need for a closer will be filled by Zumaya, but keeper leagues should keep him in mind as a possible back end starter for next year.

He is only owned in 27% as of this morning on CBS.