Crooked Pitch

Pitchers and catchers are reporting this week. That makes this the perfect time to start working on the rankings for starting pitchers.

Today, let’s look at the top ten:

1. Tim Lincecum | San Francisco Giants - The real question at the top of the starting pitcher rankings is who to rank #1 between Lincecum and Santana. I like Lincecum to win strikeouts and ERA and Santana to get more wins and have a better WHIP. I’m giving Lincecum the nod here as I think he crushed Santana in strikeouts and the other three categories are relatively similar.
2. Johan Santana | New York Mets - I must be crazy to rank a guy #2 when I feel he’ll lead the league in wins, strike out 200+ and lead all starting pitchers in WHIP. Call me crazy, I just think Lincecum is a little more special.
3. C.C. Sabathia | New York Yankees - I like Sabathia to be a top three starting pitcher in wins and to keep his WHIP under 1.20 and strike out close to 200. I do worry about his return to the American League though.
4. Cole Hamels | Philadelphia Phillies - Hamels will finish just behind Sabathis in wins, strikeouts and ERA but actually might have more upside. His fabulous post-season performance last season should give him a huge shot of confidence going into ‘09.
5. Roy Halladay | Toronto Blue Jays - Halladay’s K/9 spiked dramatically last season; a trend that will probably normalize in ‘09. He won’t win 20 again, his numbers will still be very ace-like.
6. Brandon Webb | Arizona Diamondbacks - Webb is the model of consistency here. He’s gone five years in a row with over 200 innings pitched and 30 starts. You know exactly what you’re going ot get when you grab Webb.
7. Jake Peavy | San Diego Padres - If there was a dropoff point among the starting pitchers (read: tier) this would be the first one. Peavy isn’t the same pitcher he used to be (which is hard to say about a 27-year-old), but you can still count on a sub 3.50 ERA, double digit wins and almost 200 strikeouts.
8. Dan Haren | Arizona Diamondbacks - Haren gives the Diamondbacks what might be the best one-two punch in baseball on the mound. He’s been trending wonderfully with his strikeout totals, WHIP and win totals. He may not even be done improving.
9. Roy Oswalt | Houston Astros - It seemed like everything that was hit in the air against Oswalt in the first half of last season left the ballpark. He corrected that in the second half and returned to the premium pitcher we all knew he could be. Don’t pay for second half numbers, but realize that he’s a 15-win guy who will stay well below the 4.00 ERA mark.
10. James Shields | Tampa Bay Rays - Shields has grown as a pitcher in each of the last two seasons and does just about everything well. At age 27, expect another growth year in ‘09.

I’m still catching up here on publishing the commentary from each selection in our slow mock draft. Take a look back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2,  round 3, and round 4.

• Round 5 : Pick 1(49) - @crookedpitch - David Ortiz - I know that Papi is getting older and his injury is still of concern, but with the 49th pick I’m willing to gamble that he’ll return to 30 home run form and post triple digit RBI. That Red Sox lineup is stacked. A healthy Ortiz can’t help but flourish.
• Round 5 : Pick 2(50) - @Angels2717 - Joe Mauer - In a two catcher league, you have to go for a catcher earlier than usual.  And what better way to have a great catcher in Joe Mauer.  He’ll hit over.300 and add in a bunch of everything: power and some speed.  After 5 catchers or so are drafted you get into the next tier of catchers which has a substantial drop in value.  This one pick was easy for me.
• Round 5 : Pick 3(51) - @TheRoundtable - Derrek Lee - I really debated on whether or not to take Lee or to go with Dan Uggla, but I’m a sucker for anyone that looks like T-Rex from Mr. 3000. Something like that. Lee’s consistent, and, again, that’s what I want out of my early picks. He’l hit right around .300, provide around 25-30 home runs, and drive in runs for that Cubs team. He hasn’t been the same since he was injured in 2006, but you can hardly call the steady production a true drop. I’m convinced this is about where he should go, and I got decent value on the pick. Given the talent left at other positions, I can start to line those up knowing my corners are solid.
• Round 5 : Pick 4(52) - @fakebaseball - Dan Uggla - I was afraid I was reaching a bit taking Uggla in the fifth round, but I doubt he would have made it back to me at the end of the sixth, and second base is pretty weak after you get through the early rounds. I’m hoping for another .250-.260/30 HR/100 RBI season, which would give me a strong foundation from my middle infield (pairing Uggla with my Reyes pick in round one). His streaky hitting isn’t as hard to stomach in a roto league like this as it would be in a head-to-head league. I’ll have to keep an eye on the batting average category going forward, though.
• Round 5 : Pick 5(53) - @jefeboy - Joey Votto - Not my 1st choice at 1B, but with McCann and Martin gone Votto was my best IF choice. I like the average, and I can only hope his power surges a bit. He looked great in the 2nd half of 08. And the handful of SBs doesn’t hurt. Was very tempted to add a second ace SP here, but I’d be at too much of an offensive disadvantage.
• Round 5 : Pick 6(54) - @xxldaddyo - Corey Hart -Yet another 30/30/.300 hitter. Think of him as the “poor mans” Grady Sizemore. He actually hit MORE flyballs in the 2H last year, but fewer of them went over the fence. That my friends is an anomaly that will correct itself. Plus? It’s just so damn fun to watch Bernie Brewer come down the slide at Miller Park every time Corey goes yard.
• Round 5 : Pick 7(55) - @tommystv - Alexei Ramirez - Best MI on the board, took him right where I hoped I could, don’t think I could’ve waited any longer. If you eliminate his slow start he had a 2nd round type season last year.
• Round 5 : Pick 8(56) - @sporer - Curtis Granderson - Anyone that knows me knows that there is no surprise with the Granderson pick.  He’s my favorite player in the league hands down.  But thankfully it works out that picking my favorite player is also a huge benefit to my team.  Granderson didn’t run much last year and speculation has been rampant as to why, but regardless the reason I can’t envision Leyland not giving him the green light all season in 2009.  He should coast to a .285-100-20-70-20 season with his upside approaching the 30-30 realm.
• Round 5 : Pick 9(57) - @therotofeed - Jake Peavy - I don’t love taking pitchers before the sixth round in a snake draft. But when Jake Peavy is still sitting there at pick #57, it’s probably time to grab him at a nice discount. No doubt, Peavy’s coming off some injuries playing for a lousy team. But he’s only 27 and we’ve seen super-elite skills very recently from him.  I don’t see any batters with super-elite potential left on the board. And I smell another pitching run brewing.
• Round 5 : Pick 10(58) - @dowdyism - Cole Hamels - I am very pleasantly surprised that Cole Hamels fell to me at the back of the 5th round.  I rank him right up there with C.C. Sabathia in the group behind Johan Santana and Tim Lincecum.  His workload has increased each of the past three years, so there is a belief that he is now a greater injury risk, but his numbers are rock-solid, and that’s what I am looking for in a fantasy ace.
• Round 5 : Pick 11(59) - @jasoncollette - Jacoby Ellsbury - With that pick, I’m done drafting steals for quite some time. He is only a 3 category playe but he has the potential to max out in those three categories which is why he is enticing.
• Round 5 : Pick 12(60) - @seniorcircuit - Chipper Jones -I know, I know, he’s an injury risk, I get that. I needed some power at third base after the dependable guys were off the board. Every year he gets hurt but you can’t ignore the fact that over the last 3 years he has hit at least .320 when he is healthy. His power numbers are coming down but that is the result of him not playing a full season. If he plays in 130-150 games I would count on 85/30/100/5/.325 but realistically you should expect 70/25/85/5/.330

I got a chance recently to catch up with Geoff Young via e-mail, something that  neglected to do for far too long. There aren’t too many baseball bloggers out there with as much pull as Geoff has. He blogs about the San Diego Padres at Ducksnorts, and also writes over at Baseball Digest Daily. Geoff also writes a book every year offering “unparalleled coverage of the San Diego Padres”, it’s called Ducksnorts Baseball Annual.

Please check out Geoff’s awesome Padres coverage at any of the places listed above or follow him on twitter at @ducksnorts.

1. Who helped themselves the most with their Fall & Winter League play? Was it Eliezer Alfonso in the Venezuelan League?

Alfonso’s performance probably helped get him signed. Outfielder Mike Baxter put up terrific numbers in the AFL and could eventually surface as a reserve outfielder, although perhaps not this year.

2. With Khalil Greene out at shortstop what do the Padres plan to do at that position?

If the season started today, Luis Rodriguez, who filled in for Greene after his injury last year, would see a lot of time there. Internally, Sean Kazmar is another option, although he doesn’t have much of a bat. I’ve also heard that the Pads are interested in David Eckstein and Omar Vizquel. Whatever they end up doing, it won’t be real exciting.

3. What’s going on with Jake Peavy?

Right now — and the situation remains fluid — it looks like he’ll be the Padres Opening Day starter. A sale of the team to Jeff Moorad, assuming it goes through, should help stabilize things and hopefully keep Peavy here for a while.

4. What’s Chase Headley have in store for the Padres and fantasy owners in 2009?

I would expect modest improvements from him this year. Maybe .260-.270 with 20-25 homers.

5. Who’s taking over at closer for the Padres? Will they be there as long as Hoffman was?

I’d guess that Heath Bell gets first crack. He was dominant in 2007, but slipped last year, particularly in the second half. Bell won’t be there as long as Hoffman was because no closer holds that role for one team as long as he did. Well, except Mariano Rivera, but he and Hoffman are unique in that regard.

One of my new favorite personalities on twitter is Ron Aguirre (@xxldaddyo). Ron was the publisher of the short-lived XXL National Sports Daily in 2006, which was an homage to Frank DeFord’s old “National Sports Daily” from 1990. XXX National Sports Daily was a 150-paged daily PDF which was covered the previous days sporting events. Ron has recently begun www.xxlnational.com as a blog covering baseball. A lifelong Dodger fan, Ron is looking for others who want to cover their favorite teams for the XXLNational blog.

I asked Ron the same five questions that I asked Marc. It’s a great resource to get two knowledgeable opinions on these topics. Enjoy!

1. Hector Luna tore up the Dominican League. Jamie Hoffman fared well in the Arizona Fall League. What players helped their stock the most by fall or winter league participation?

At 28, Hector Luna isn’t much of a prospect. Labeling him as “suspect” might even be a little generous, despite hitting .318 with seven HRs for the Aguilas. When you think about MI Dodger prospects one name comes to mind: Ivan De Jesus Jr.

Jamie Hoffman may have impressed a little more with his .314 for the Surprise Rafters in the AFL. His OBP of .432 shows patience and a willingness to work a count and take a walk. Speed is the name of Hoffman’s game, he had three SBs in ten AFL games to go along with 28 for AA Jacksonville last season. He’ll be one to watch in Albuquerque in 2009, but Andrew Lambo and Xavier Paul seem to be the next big things for the Dodgers OF down on the farm.

2. With Greg Maddux retiring, the Dodger rotation doesn’t look too set after Billingsley, Kershaw, and Kuroda. Schmidt and Billingsley both are hoping injuries will be healed by Spring Training. How do you see the Dodger rotation shaping up?

The Dodger rotation is still in flux and there is no doubt that Ned Colletti is not done yet. Billingsley’s injury does not appear to be serious and the Dodger’s expect him to be fully recovered by the time that pitchers and catchers report to Glendale, AZ in mid-February.

With the restructuring of Andruw Jones contract, $12 million has been freed up for 2009. While speculation is that the $12 million saved this year would go towards signing Manny, the departure of Kent, Penny, Garciaparra and Derek Lowe has already shaved enough off the 2008 payroll to pay for Manny. The $12 million will best be served fortifying the front end of the rotation. One remote possibility would be for the Dodgers to enter the Jake Peavy sweepstakes. This would undoubtedly cost them Matt Kemp, and if the Dodgers re-sign Manny then they might be able to let Kemp go

It’s more likely however that Ned Colletti will go the Free Agent route with either Ben Sheets or Oliver Perez. Sheets would immediately become the #1 starter and Perez would slot in initially at #4 and would give the Dodgers a R/L/R/L starting four. Both pitchers come with caveats. Sheets health is always a concern, but he made it thru the ‘08 campaign relatively unscathed. If Perez can remember to throw strikes, he could become a #2 for the Dodger rotation. His 3.56 ERA in the second half of last season points to good things. The other “possibility” as far as Free Agent pitchers are concerned would be Andy Pettitte. This would reunite him with Joe Torre and the National League. The Yankees signing of CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett, may signal that they will not re-sign Pettitte which would leave him available to tutor the Dodgers young rotation.

The number five starter looks like it will either be Jason Schmidt (if healthy) or James McDonald. Schmidt has been a complete bust since signing before the ‘07 season, but with all the money the Dodgers have given him, you can bet that they will give him every opportunity to make good on some of it. If he can’t, then look for James McDonald to pick up the slack.

3. Are any of the new faces (either free agents, players acquired in trades, or minor leaguers going to make a splash in ‘09?

The only new face that should make a splash in the Dodgers 2009 lineup would be a freshly shaven (and newly signed) Manny Ramirez. The Yankees and Angels have all but delivered Manny to the Dodgers with their off-season moves and announced intentions. Even though the two sides have not come to an agreement yet, remember that the Dodgers had to speak with Scott Boras (Manny’s agent) to restructure Andruw Jones‘ contract. Conversations like that don’t happen in a bubble. Boras knew full well that restructuring one clients (Andruw) contract, would only serve to help another (Manny).

Rafael Furcal played in fewer games for the Dodgers than either Manny Ramirez OR Andruw Jones in 2008. A return to health for Furcal would bring a fresh new re-birth of his Dodger career in 2009. The Dodgers are counting on big things from Furcal at the top of the order in the upcoming season.

4. The Dodger outfield was packed full last season, and as of this writing, still is. Can you talk about some of the positional battles out there? And if you didn’t touch on this in the new faces piece, is Mark Loretta going to be taking lots of at-bats away from Furcal and Dewitt?

The outfield is settling now that Andruw Jones is out of the picture. CF belongs to Matt Kemp, RF to Andre Ethier and LF will be Manny’s (as soon as that contract comes thru). If for some reason, Manny does NOT re-sign with the Dodgers, look for them to sign either Adam Dunn or Bobby Abreu to slot in LF. Juan Pierre is nothing more than a 4th OF and late inning pinch runner.

Mark Loretta = utility infielder. He is this year’s Angel Berroa or Nomar Garciaparra. Unless Blake DeWitt struggles seriously at the plate? Don’t look for Loretta to get too many at bats for the Dodgers.

5. Saito is out. Is Broxton the man to close out games?

Hear me now and believe me for the next 4-5 years. Jonathan Broxton is the REAL deal and is (and will be) the Dodgers Closer from here on out. Everyone talks about his eight blown saves in 08. What most people DON’T realize is that only two of those saves came in his capacity as the Closer for the Dodgers. The other six took place in his role as the Dodgers 8th inning set-up man. Broxton’s ERA in the 2nd half (when he was closing) was only 2.80 with a 1.13 WHIP. He struck out 11.5 batters every nine innings pitched. In short? Broxton is a BEAST and the National League is about to find that out. Still unsure? Take a look at the replay of when he closed out the Cubs in the the NLDS. The beast has been unleashed.

Well, I wouldn’t go that far, but Melvin over at The Sacrifice Bunt has posted some interesting drawings of possible changes being made to Petco Park. It seems as if the right field wall is moving in.

Adrian Gonzalez owners are rejoicing. Jake Peavy owners… not so much.