Crooked Pitch

Now that it’s round thirteen, you’re going to start seeing owners fill out teams needs and start really jumping on positional runs. Position scarcity may also start driving the decisions some of these guys make.

Take a look back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2,  round 3, round 4, round 5, round 6, round 7, round 8, round 9, round 10, round 11 and round 12.

• Round 13 : Pick 1(145) - @crookedpitch - Pat Burrell - To grab a 30+ home run hitter at this stage in the draft seems very good to me. He fits nicely into my power laden lineup. I’m glad that our league is set up roto-style versus head-to-head as Burrell’s swings from hot to cold could derail a H2H team. But, in roto, 30 homers is 30 homers. I couldn’t care less if they al come in one month.
• Round 13 : Pick 2(146) - @Angels2717 - Edwin Encarnacion - In this draft, I waited awhile to take a 3B and when your this deeo into a draft, its hard to get a good one. I believe Encarnacion has the ability to post some solid stats for a thirteen-rounder; he’s streaky but when he’s on, he’s good. Hopefully this pick won’t be as bad as it looks so far.
• Round 13 : Pick 3(147) - @TheRoundtable - Chien-Ming Wang - One of the forgotten souls because of his injury last year. Wang didn’t forget how to pitch, he just couldn’t help the Yankees out at all. He won 19 games in 2006 and 2007. I’m betting he’s back and much closer to that this season than he is anything else. Given where we are in the draft, I like the potential for grabbing a Cy Young-candidate this late in the game.
• Round 13 : Pick 4(148) - @fakebaseball - Alex Gordon - In need of a third baseman and with few choices left, I took Alex Gordon in the 13th round. I probably reached a round early, but at this point in the draft, I’d rather go with upside potential than confirmed mediocrity. Sure, Gordon hasn’t lived up to expectations, but he’s still young, and made incremental improvements last year that gives hope he’ll continue to develop. My tempered expectations are for .270/22 HR/12 SB, but as we’ve seen before with “post-hype” young players, there’s the possibility for more.
• Round 13 : Pick 5(149) - @jefeboy - Scott Baker - A sleeper SP, to some extent I guess. He was very good in 2008 and could improve in 2009. Another upside pick.
• Round 13 : Pick 6(150) - @xxldaddyo - James Loney - I had my eye on Alex Gordon to fill one of my CI spots and was hopeful that I would be able to snag him in this round, but @fakebaseball foiled those plans for me just two picks before me. I knew that I needed to snag a Corner position here and so I went with James Loney at pick 150. Not a prodigious power hitter (figure 15HRs to be safe), he does hit for average and I think will hit .300 in 2009. He is only 24 years old and now has two solid years of Major League experience under his belt. Plus I’ve decided to petition the powers that be at Dodger Stadium to ply JD Southers “When youre only lone(l)y” if James goes into any prolonged slumps this year:
  

  When the world is ready to fall on your little shoulders
  And when you’re feeling lonely and small, you need somebody there to hold you
  You can call out my name when you’re only Lone(l)y
  Now don’t you ever be ashamed when you’re only Lone(l)y

• Round 13 : Pick 7(151) - @tommystv - Nick Swisher - Not sure what happened to him last year. I could see a power dropoff as steroids/hgh or lack there of deal. (everyone in Oakland past and present juice right?) But for this guy not to hit for a better AVG was a bit mind boggling. I think he was pressing and that he bounces back solid in ‘09. 1B/OF eligibility is always nice.
• Round 13 : Pick 8(152) - @sporer - Jonathan Broxton - I’m usually anti-saves or at least I don’t start speculating on them until much later, but when Broxton was there in the 13th, I went for it. With Saito completely out of the picture, it’s Broxton’s job as long as he’s successful and his skills thus far suggest that could be quite a while! He can be wild at times (3.5 walks per nine last year), but he has overpowering stuff that will win out in the long run (10.9 and 11.5 strikeouts per nine the past two seasons). He is ready to become an elite game-ender.
• Round 13 : Pick 9(153) - @therotofeed - Denard Span - At the time, I thought this was a cheap and somewhat painless way to add speed and runs without adding Willy Taveras.  Looking back, I think I could have waited, but SBs were flying off the board by this point.
• Round 13 : Pick 10(154) - @dowdyism - Adam Wainwright - I almost never target specific players heading into a draft, but Wainwright was one I was keeping my eyes on in the right position. His injury last year cut into his innings, but I think he will be on track for career numbers in 2009. Not an elite strikeout guy, but a solid contributor in the other categories.
• Round 13 : Pick 11(155) - @jasoncollette - Shin-Soo Chin - This guy had a terrific close of the season and has the skills to go 20/20/.290 in 2009.
• Round 13 : Pick 12(156) - @seniorcircuit - Francisco Cordero - I took Cordero as my first closer as he was one of the last remaining “stable” closers on the board. But as I have owned him in the past, he makes me nervous every time he gets handed the ball. Especially pitching at Great American Ballpark, there is no telling how his year could go.  Projecting him at 33 S/80 Ks/3.20 ERA/1.33 WHIP.

It’s still early, but I wanted get a current look at the first base position for every team. Designated hitters are not on this list, and players like Giambi (who hasn’t signed yet) or Billy Butler (DH on the depth chart) aren’t going to be included here until their status changes.

Here are the 2009 fantasy first base rankings.

Update [1/16/2009 10:31 PM]: Now that Michael Young has calmed down, stopped whining, and agreed to play third base, Chris Davis is firmly entrenched as the first baseman and can be added to this list. Hank Blalock has been moved down on this list accordingly.

1. Albert Pujols | St. Louis Cardinals - Dropped on draft boards last year due to injury concerns. He shouldn’t have! The numbers he put up were sick and he can do it again. As long as his elbow stays healthy. <g>
2. Ryan Howard | Philadelphia Phillies - If Howard hit north of .275 he’d be the #1 ranked player in all of fantasy baseball. But, he only hits .251 and that detracts a bit from his 48 home runs and 146 RBI. Feel good about drafting Howard’s power numbers, but get some decent average hitter to supplement later on.
3. Lance Berkman | Houston Astros - Berkman hit 88 points higher in the first half last season than he did in the second half. All his other stats followed suit. If his second half didn’t stink so badly, Berkman would have been the #2 guy here instead of Howard. Still, Berkman contributed massively in all five stat categories and there aren’t too many reasons to think he won’t do so again in 2009.
4. Mark Teixeira | New York Yankees - Power output could go up in the Big Apple. His ‘08 numbers were nothing to sneeze at. You can draft him expecting at least a repeat of last year and hope for a bit more.
5. Miguel Cabrera | Detroit Tigers - An off year in 2008 really has Cabrera low on this list. He did turn it on in the second half, so don’t fret too much over grabbing Cabrera early.
6. Adrian Gonzalez | San Diego Padres - Gonzalez finally moves up into the elite 1B area, right where his 36 home runs and 119 RBI belong.
7. Justin Morneau | Minnesota Twins - Morneau’s home run total dropped in ‘08, but he still contributed more than enough to earn runner up status in the AL MVP race. Morneau will be off the board by the second round. If he gets his power numbers back up, that’ll be a bargain.
8. Kevin Youkilis | Boston Red Sox - Youk is a .300-30-100-100 guy? He is now. And he should be for the next few years. Youk in the third round is safe. Youk in the fourth or fifth round is a steal.
9. Prince Fielder | Milwaukee Brewers - Fielder is being overvalued a bit due to his young age and high home run potential. Don’t draft him expecting 40+ dingers, but know that he could possibly get there.
10. Carlos Delgado | New York Mets - His power numbers were there for most of the year, but Delgado really increased his batting average in the second half. At almost 37, he’s aging, but he still has lots of fight in him.
11. Aubrey Huff | Baltimore Orioles - Huff returned back to his early 2000’s form with 32 home runs and 100+ RBI in ‘08. You can’t grab him too early as nobody is sure if this was a return to normal, or if 30 home runs is an outlier. But once the big boys are off of the board at first base, Huff is the next logical choice.
12. Jorge Cantu | Florida Marlins - With Jacobs gone, Cantu will slide to the first base side for 2009. He approached 30 home runs and 100 RBI in 2008 and could do the same in ‘09. Don’t forget that 2009 will be Cantu’s 27-year-old year. Could a break out be imminent?
13. Chris Davis | Texas Rangers - In 295 at-bats last season Davis belted 17 home runs and drove in 55; two reasons for great optimism for 2009. However, he had a strike out rate of 29.8% and a hit rate of 35.3% which might foretell bumpy roads ahead. He’s being hyped up on a grand scale this off-season so you’re going to have to overpay to get him.
14. Derrek Lee | Chicago Cubs - Lee isn’t getting back to his 2005 form ever again. Expect something more like 20-25 homers, 80-90 RBI, and a few stolen bases to keep him in the top 15.
15. Carlos Pena | Tampa Bay Rays - Pena’s power potential is what keeps him ranked this high amongst first basemen. Because it sure isn’t his .247 batting average. You’d better have some other players to boost your batting average if you grab Pena.
16. Joey Votto | Cincinnati Reds - Votto should back up a fantastic rookie season with an even better ‘09 campaign. Votto could even bat north of .300 and blast 30 homers. If that happens he’s a huge steal here.
17. Mike Jacobs | Kansas City Royals - See Carlos Pena. Jacobs is devalued even more due to the fact that there are so many first basemen in Kansas City. A slump for too long won’t be allowed. Nor will his inability to hit lefties.
18. Adam LaRoche | Pittsburgh Pirates - Missed out on 100 at-bats which may have kept him from the 30 home run mark. He has fewer base runners to drive in than most of the big guys at 1B and he can’t hit lefties. So, this is about as high as LaRoche goes among first basemen.
19. James Loney | Los Angeles Dodgers - Loney’s power isn’t coming along like many expected but his batting average is keeping him somewhat valuable in fantasy circles. He’s still only going to be 25 this season so there’s still time to grow. 10 - 15 home runs and a batting average approaching .300 is what you should expect.
20. Ryan Garko | Cleveland Indians - Garko’s 14 home runs and 90 RBI come in just 495 at-bats. Until Garko approaches the 600 at-bat mark he’s never going to progress further as a fantasy option.
21. Casey Kotchman | Atlanta Braves - Kotchman is only going to hit you 10 - 15 home runs and approach the .280 mark in batting average. There’s not much upside here.
22. Lyle Overbay | Toronto Blue Jays - Overbay’s days of 20+ dingers and a .300 batting average are over. He’s a serviceable .270 hitter with home runs totals in the low teens, at best.
23. Paul Konerko | Chicago White Sox - Konerko’s power numbers and batting average are declining rapidly. 2009 might be his final chance to get back on track towards fantasy relevance, but don’t pay too much to find out if he does.
24. Todd Helton | Colorado Rockies - Helton’s age caught up with him as he spent a lot of time on the disabled list for the first time in his career. If healthy, he’s more like a .280 hitter with 15 or so home runs. If…
25. Daric Barton | Oakland Athletics - Barton has never shown the power potential, either in the minors or at the MLB level, that people seem to expect from him. Don’t draft him thinking it’s going to somehow materialize now.
26. Chad Tracy | Arizona Diamondbacks - Tracy might not be the best option at first base for the Diamondbacks, but that’s what they’re rolling with in ‘09. You shouldn’t.
27. Kendry Morales | Los Angeles Angels - With Teixeira out Morales is going to get his chance at first base. There is some upside here as he’s shown power in the minors, but he shouldn’t be anywhere close to the middle or top of your draft list.
28. Nick Johnson | Washington Nationals - Johnson, when healthy, is a viable candidate as a #2 first baseman. But, he’s not healthy, and hasn’t been for a while.
29. Hank Blalock | Texas Rangers - If only he could stay healthy and reach 400+ at-bats, something he hasn’t done since 2006. Don’t spend too much speculating though.
30. Bryan Lahair | Seattle Mariners - Lahair isn’t really a long term option for the Mariners and he shouldn’t any kind of an option for your fantasy team.
31. Travis Ishikawa | San Francisco Giants - The Giants are looking at the free agent market for anyone that they can bring in so Ishikawa won’t have to be kept on the opening day roster. Enough said.