Crooked Pitch

We’re starting to get into the thick of things when it comes to differing draft strategies and player evaluations. These next five to seven rounds are very fun to watch. Take a look back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2,  round 3, round 4, round 5, and round 6.

• Round 7 : Pick 1(73) - @crookedpitch - Jermaine Dye - Yes, I know that Dye is 35-years-old. yes, I know that he’s likely to regress a small amount in ‘09. That being said, he’s still gonna be close to 30 home runs and havd 90+ RBI. That’s not bad in the 7th round; especially with a decent batting average and 90+ runs scored.
• Round 7 : Pick 2(74) - @Angels2717 - Adam Dunn - This is somewhat a risky pick because of his average.  It is god awful. But with some very good average guys already, I think I can take that risk to get his power. He should hit 40+ homers which will be a nice addition in this round.
• Round 7 : Pick 3(75) - @TheRoundtable - Jhonny Peralta - Want to talk about a guy that doesn’t get the respect of the other shortstops, it’s Peralta. He’s hit 20+ home runs in three of the last four years, and his average has risen each of the last three. He scored 100 runs last season, and frankly I think he has much more upside than Jeter, Young, or Tulo. You can argue I may have taken him a little high, but I think this was the right spot to make sure I add another 20+ home run guy to my lineup at a key position.
• Round 7 : Pick 4(76) - @fakebaseball - Josh Beckett - My pick of Beckett in the 7th round is another pick I didn’t want to make (I prefer drafting starters later, and growing up in New York City, the last thing I want on my team is *two* Red Sox…). However, I believe it’s critical to take the emotion out of drafting and stick to your rankings if you want to do well, and I think I got a great arm on a great team a round later than I expected him to go. For ‘09, I think an ERA of 3.50 with a 1.2 WHIP, 8.25 K/9 or better, and copious wins isn’t an outlandish projection. Haren and Beckett give me a strong start to my rotation, and while I’m digging myself a bit of a hole offensively, it’s one I hope I’ll be able to dig myself out of later in the draft.
• Round 7 : Pick 5(77) - @jefeboy - Andre Ethier - Here we are in the 7th round and I’ve yet to grab an OF, so why not start with one who has the ever-popular “upside.” Solid all-around contributor who could be more than that, if his 2nd-half breakout was legit. 25 HR.
• Round 7 : Pick 6(78) - @xxldaddyo - Jonathan Papelbon - Paps has become a groundball pitcher who doesnt walk anybody. He closes for a team thats gonna win 90 plus games so he’s a lock for 40+ saves.
• Round 7 : Pick 7(79) - @tommystv - Victor Martinez - In a two catcher league I like getting a top 5 Catcher if the timing is right. I know Victor has fallen off in the power department but he still puts the bat on the ball unlike most catchers. So if he’s healthy I got Joe Mauer two rounds later than Joe Mauer. Health is the key.
• Round 7 : Pick 8(80) - @sporer - James Shields - I always struggle with when to start taking SPs.  Well actually I don’t struggle so much as I put it off as long as I can.  I joined the fray earlier than usual with Shields, but it’s hard not to be very pleased as he’s a beast.  He has back-to-back 215 inning seasons with a 1.15 WHIP or better.  He doesn’t dominate batters like a Lincecum or Sabathia, but he’s at or near 7 strikeouts per nine, which is usable.  There is nothing to suggest that the Rays are merely a one-year wonder so he should have the offensive support for wins again in 2009.
• Round 7 : Pick 9(81) - @therotofeed - Carlos Pena - I had to respond to the power dwindling from the boards by taking a player I normally don’t like to roster - I generally want guys I can count on to hit at least .270. But I made the mistake of going with too much BA and not enough power a few years back and learned it’s a lot harder to trade high BA/R/SB guys than it is to unload a basher who can’t hit .250. Plus Pena’s second half last year looked an awful lot like his monstrous 2007.
• Round 7 : Pick 10(82) - @dowdyism - Vernon Wells - After a tough 2007, Wells bounced back nicely in 2008.  Hamstring troubles last season curbed his full season totals, but I think 25 HR and 100 RBI are not out of reach and I’m happy to add his bat to my outfield.
• Round 7 : Pick 11(83) - @jasoncollette - Garrett Atkins - Might as well enjoy the final few months of his productive career before he is traded away from Coors. Unlike Holliday, Atkins is brutal away from Coors. Atkins qualifies at both corner spots which is a nice bonus for 2009 but you can count on reduced production in August and September.
• Round 7 : Pick 12(84) - @seniorcircuit - J.J. Hardy -I passed up Jeter, Tulo, and Young for Hardy.  None of those guys seem as promising as Hardy does at shortstop and a decent shortstop is hard to find.  I don’t feel I reached too far to take him and love the possibility of him improving his batting average and hitting for a little more power. I expect 80/25/85/2/.280

There are  a few position battles going on that will effect these rankings up until the point they are decided. There’s Punto and Harris battling it out in Minnesota. The Angels are looking at both Aybar and Izturis and Cincinnati is dealing with Gonzalez versus Keppinger. Until winners are announced in those races, they’re not making the list.

Here are the 2009 fantasy short stop rankings:

1. Hanley Ramirez | Florida Marlins - This 30/30 guy is a stud and will be off the draft board before your pick; unless you’re picking first. He just turned 25 and won’t be dropping off any time soon.
2. Jose Reyes | New York Mets - Reyes walked less last year but saw his on-base percentage and batting average rise. He’s still very young (25) and could still improve while expecting little to no drop-off.
3. Jimmy Rollins | Philadelphia Phillies - Injuries zapped Rollins power numbers after a huge MVP season in ‘07. Even though he missed 160 or so at-bats he still stole more bases, so his speed is still there. Expect the power to return in ‘09 and get excited that he improved his walk rate and lowered his strikeout rate last season.
4. Stephen Drew | Arizona Diamondbacks - Drew finished fourth among short stops in home runs and led them in doubles last season. That leads me to believe that  there may be more power to come. This guy is closer to Rollins than most people think. If he improves again in ‘09, he’ll enter elite status among short stops.
5. Alexei Ramirez | Chicago White Sox - Ramirez finished second in AL Rookie of the Year voting and showed great pop with his 21 home runs in only 480 at-bats. He’s a sleeper to become a 20/20 guy this year.
6. Jhonny Peralta | Cleveland Indians - Peralta led short stops in RBI, finished second in doubles and third in home runs in ‘08. The only knock against him is he strikes out way, way too much. He did lower his strikeout rate in ‘08, so if that trend continues, you can expect a huge ‘09.
7. Rafael Furcal | Los Angeles Dodgers - Furcal torched pitchers and basepaths in 32 games prior to an almost season ending injury. If he can stay healthy to the tune of 600 at-bats in ‘09 at his ‘08 pace he’s a potent 20/30 guy. But the downside is huge too.
8. Derek Jeter | New York Yankees - It’s odd to see Jeter this low on the list, but father time seems to be taking his toll. That being said, .300 with 11 homers and 11 stolen bases is nothig to shake a stick at.
9. J.J. Hardy | Milwaukee Brewers - As streky of a hitter as Hardy is, he still hit .283 with 24 home runs in ‘08. A source of home runs at short stop is a boon for any league. I wouldn’t expect any drop-off and I wouldn’t argue with a further break-out prediction. He is turning 27-years-old this season…
10. Michael Young | Texas Rangers - Young is crying for a trade due to the Rangers asking him to move to third base. His ranking will change if that happens, but right now draft him here and expect .280+ with double digit steals and home runs and lots of runs scored.
11. Troy Tulowitzki | Colorado Rockies - Tulowitzki tore it up in September hitting .330 with three home runs, which excites many for a rebound in ‘09. I don’t think he’ll return to ‘07 power totals, but I would expect home runs in the high teens and an increased batting average due to his drop in strikeout rate.
12. Miguel Tejada | Houston Astros - At 35-years-old Tejada isn’t going to be breaking out anymore. He, most likely, isn’t going ot be surging either. Expect .280-.290 with 13-17 home runs and a good amount of runs scored.
13. Mike Aviles | Kansas City Royals - His .325 batting average in 419 at-bats was superb, but it came with a 35.9% hit rate. It’s tough for me to think he’ll repeat that. However, he should be right around .300 and will hit double digits in home runs and stolen bases.
14. Yunel Escobar | Atlanta Braves - Improved strikeout and walk rate and also doubled his home run total in ‘08. I can see better things to come in ‘09. Also… he’s turning 27-years-old this year too.
15. Edgar Renteria | San Francisco - At 34-years-old, Renteria is definitely on the downward portion of his career. But, he’ll bat .270-.280 with 10 homers and 10 stolen bases. That’s good stuff towards the end of your draft.
16. Ryan Theriot | Chicago Cubs - His 20+ stolen bases are real, but his .307 batting average was due to a very high 34.0% hit rate. When his hit rate is normal he’s more like a .270 hitter. Draft accordingly.
17. Jason Bartlett | Tampa Bay Rays - We’re nearing the finish line for mixed-league relevancy with Bartlett. At the end of your draft, Bartlett can be a good source of 20 stolen bases and won’t hurt you too much with a .275 batting average.
18. Cristian Guzman | Washington Nationals - Guzman gives you some nice help in batting average and you can expect him to approach .300 again in ‘09. His seven to ten home runs are just gravy.
19. Jed Lowrie | Boston Red Sox - Lowrie strikes out way too much to have a batting average anywhere close to respectability. His power potential isn’t big so that can’t help and he’s no base stealer. So, look elsewhere for late round help.
    
20. Cesar Izturis | Baltimore Orioles - Those 24 stolen bases from ‘08 look great, but remember that this guy will hit in the .250’s and won’t produce much power at all.
21. Khalil Greene | St. Louis Cardinals - Greene isn’t a .213 hitter with only ten home runs. But he is a .245 hitter with 13-18 home runs and very few stolen bases.
22. Yuniesky Betancourt | Seattle Mariners - Look to Betancourt for AL-only help. His .280 batting average is the only help you get from him as he doesn’t hit home runs or steal bases.
23. Jack Wilson | Pittsburgh Pirates - Wilson’s a .270 hitter with not much else going on. He can help in a pinch in NL-only leagues.
24. Bobby Crosby | Oakland Athletics - Is Crosby’s 10-12 home run potential worth his .240 batting average? Only if you like 8th place in your fantasy league.
25. Luis Rodriguez | San Diego Padres - Rodriguez makes this list because I fear the wrath of Padres fans if I don’t include one of their oen, not because he has any fantasy value whatsoever.
26. John McDonald | Toronto Blue Jays - Ouch! If you’re drafting this guy, you must be related to him.
27. Adam Everett | Detroit Tigers - The Tigers signed Everett for his glove. In fact, they’d prefer he doesn’t ever grab a bat at all. Unfortunately, he’s gonna come to the plate in most games, but he shouldn’t on your fantasy teams.

Here are the fantasy baseball rankings for the top ten shortstops for the 2008 season. I will also list the predictions from the pre-season at the bottom of this post for comparison.

1. Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins - With Ramirez you get the best power/speed combo in the game today. 125 runs | 33 HR | 67 RBI | 35 SB | .301
2. Jose Reyes, New York Mets - With Reyes you get fewer home runs, but more stolen bases than Ramirez. You could really argue either player for the top spot here. 113 runs | 16 HR | 68 RBI | 56 SB | .297
3. Jhonny Peralta, Cleveland Indians - Simple math here… There were six shortstops with 20 or more stolen bases and only five with 20 or more home runs. That being said, I gave Peralta the nod over Rollins for the #3 spot. 104 runs | 23 HR | 89 RBI | 3 SB | .276
4. Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia Phillies - With numbers like these, is it really fair to consider 2008 a down year for Rollins? 76 runs | 11 HR | 59 RBI | 47 SB | .277
5. Michael Young, Texas Rangers - Consistency and well rounded statistics keep Young high on this list, but not in the elite crew. 102 runs | 12 HR | 82 RBI | 10 SB | .284
6. J.J. Hardy, Milwaukee Brewers -Hardy’s power numbers place him squarely in the thick of things for shortstops not named Ramirez, Reyes, Rollins or Peralta. 78 runs | 24 HR | 74 RBI | 2 SB | .283
7. Stephen Drew, Arizona Diamondbacks -Drew showed why he was worthy of his first round selection in 2004. 91 runs | 21 HR | 67 RBI | 3 SB | .291
8. Alexei Ramirez, Chicago White Sox -Multi-position goodness plus his well rounded stats make him valuable to any fantasy baseball team. 65 runs | 21 HR | 77 RBI | 13 SB | .290
9. Derek Jeter, New York Yankees -Jeter just isn’t the fantasy force he used to be. But the Yanks couldn’t live without him. 88 runs | 11 HR | 69 RBI | 11 SB | .300
10. Miguel Tejada, Houston Astros -Tejada just edges out Orlando Cabrera for the 10th spot due to his power numbers. 92 runs | 13 HR | 66 RBI | 7 SB | .283

Below find my pre-season rankings of the shortstop position.

2008 American League Fantasy Baseball Shortstop Rankings

1. Derek Jeter | New York Yankees
2. Carlos Guillen* | Detroit Tigers
3. Edgar Renteria | Detroit Tigers
4. Michael Young | Texas Rangers
5. Orlando Cabrera | Chicago White Sox
6. Julio Lugo | Boston Red Sox
7. Jhonny Peralta | Cleveland Indians
8. Jason Bartlett | Tampa Bay Rays
9. Yuniesky Betancourt | Seattle Mariners
10. Tony Pena | Kansas City Royals
11. Erick Aybar | Los Angeles Angels
12. Bobby Crosby | Oakland Athletics
13. David Eckstein | Toronto Blue Jays
14. Adam Everett | Minnesota Twins
15. Juan Uribe | Chicago White Sox
16. Nick Punto | Minnesota Twins
17. John McDonald | Toronto Blue Jays
18. Brandon Wood | Los Angeles Angels

* - Carlos Guillen will be playing first base for the Tigers in 2008, but will have shortstop eligibilty, in most leagues. He is a more valuable shortstop than a first baseman, and should be used as such, as long as he is eligible.

2008 National League Fantasy Baseball Shortstop Rankings

1. Hanley Ramirez | Florida Marlins
2. Jose Reyes | New York Mets
3. Jimmy Rollins | Philadelphia Phillies
4. Troy Tulowitzki | Colorado Rockies
5. Miguel Tejada | Houston Astros
6. J.J. Hardy | Milwaukee Brewers
7. Rafael Furcal | Los Angeles Dodgers
8. Khalil Greene | San Diego Padres
9. Stephen Drew | Arizona Diamondbacks
10. Ryan Theriot | Chicago Cubs
11. Yunel Escobar | Atlanta Braves
12. Jack Wilson | Pittsburgh Pirates
13. Alex Gonzalez | Cincinnati Reds
14. Cristian Guzman | Washington Nationals
15. Omar Vizquel | San Francisco Giants
16. Cesar Izturis | St. Louis Cardinals
17. Brendan Ryan | St. Louis Cardinals
18. Alfredo Amezaga | Florida Marlins
19. Jeff Keppinger | Cincinnati Reds
20. Jamey Carroll | Colorado Rockies

The National League had six MVP’s this week compared to the American League’s two. It was all hitters for the NL and all pitchers for the AL. Does good pitching beat good hitting, or vice versa? I guess we’ll find out next week in NYC at the All-Star game.

Here are the week 14 fantasy baseball MVP’s.

Catcher: Geovany Soto | Chicago Cubs - Soto’s slash stats were impressive last week at .370/.452/.667. He also hit two home runs, scored six times and drove in five. And how can I not select Soto for the MVP award this week as he became the first rookie catcher ever to be selected to start an All-Star game for the National League?

First Base: Adam LaRoche | Pittsburgh Pirates - LaRoche had an impressive slugging percentage last week of 1.000 as five of his nine hits were extra base hits (two home runs, two doubles, and a triple). He had a batting average of .474, scored five times and drove in eight runs.

Second Base: Brandon Phillips | Cincinnati Reds - Two hitters deserved this award this week, but I am only giving it to Phillips, since snubbing ball players in en vogue lately. Ian Kinsler was a very close second place, but Phillips’ extra RBI’s were the icing on the cake. Phillips batted .481/.500/.667 with 4 runs scored, one home run, nine RBI, and two stolen bases.

Shortstop: J.J. Hardy | Milwaukee Brewers - It’s amazing when we have a week where Hanley Ramirez hits three home runs, drives in eight and scores seven times but isn’t even considered for this weekly MVP award! Hardy batted .600/.625/1.367 with eight runs scored, six home runs, 12 RBI, and a stolen base, and was arguably the most valuable fantasy baseball player last week.

Third Base: Alex Rodriguez | New York Yankees - ARod only had eight hits last week, but they all counted in a big way. He batted .333/.448/.750 with eight runs scored, three home runs, seven RBI, and three stolen bases.

Outfield: Cody Ross | Florida Marlins - Here’s another situation where excellence wasn’t good enough for a player to win the weekly MVP award. Matt Holliday belted three  homers, drove in 10, and stole three bases, but couldn’t hold a candle last week to Ross’ .500/.529/.813 with eight runs scored, two home runs, and 15 RBI.

Starting Pitcher: Roy Halladay | Toronto Blue Jays - Halladay beat up on the American League West last week earning wins over the Angels and the Mariners. He pitched 16 innings and struck out 13 while only walking one. His ERA was only 1.12 and his WHIP was 0.69.

Relief Pitcher: Brandon Morrow | Seattle Mariners - Morrow has slid into the closer’s role very nicely in Seattle. Last week he notched three saves, one win, and struck out five while only walking one in 4.1 innings of work. His ERA was perfect at 0.00 and his WHIP was 0.23.