Crooked Pitch

It’s round eleven. This is the portion of the draft where teams really look to fill needs. It’s also where a lot of fantasy GM’s will start taking HUGE chances on sleepers. Take a look back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2,  round 3, round 4, round 5, round 6, round 7, round 8, round 9 and round 10.

• Round 11 : Pick 1(121) - @crookedpitch - Joakim Soria - The only reason Soria isn’t ranked higher on relief pitcher draft lists is that he pitches for the Royals. By overlooking him you’re overlooking one of, if not, the most dominant closer in the game. I was happy to make him my first closer drafted.
• Round 11 : Pick 2(122) - @Angels2717 - Xavier Nady - Taking back-to-back Yankees outfielders isn’t an ideal move for me, but I just realized how explosive Nady was in that last half of the season this past year. He was great in the meat of that order and now he’ll be probably hitting behind two powerhouse infielders (A-rod and Tex). Looking for a repeat of that great last half of the season.
• Round 11 : Pick 3(123) - @TheRoundtable - Jorge Cantu - Cantu makes you actually figure out what you believe. If you think last year was an anomaly, then you avoid him. If you think that he can build on that, and look at the fact he had some success even with Tampa, you’re willing to buy on this one now. I looked at corners here with the feeling that there is much more depth in pitching and outfield that I can grab in later rounds.
• Round 11 : Pick 4(124) - @fakebaseball - Mike Napoli - Choosing Napoli here, which I’m sure some of my league-mates would consider a reach, is an example of trusting your own rankings and research, and also how decisions made early in draft can impact later decisions. As mentioned in my 10th-round analysis, I project Napoli as a 2nd-tier catcher in ‘09, and by this point in our draft, he was the only catcher left from that tier. Usually I’m more fixated on grabbing pitching by now, but since I uncharacteristically chose three pitchers in the first ten rounds because of the nature of this particular draft, I felt comfortable taking a non-pitcher here if needed. Napoli usually falls significantly further in drafts than rd 11, but I didn’t want to take the risk of waiting, especially since I do see Napoli–despite significant misgivings on my part–as returning positive value even taken this high in a draft, and I didn’t like the alternatives should I wait and not end up with him on my roster. (Sure, the  temptation was there for Wieters, but there are too many unknowns with him, and the contrarian in me cringes at the defeaning hype surrounding him - when something seems too good to be true, it usually is…)
• Round 11 : Pick 5(125) - @jefeboy - Milton Bradley - See Huff, Aubrey. Another guy who make have peaked in 2008, and one with health risks at that. But at this point in the draft, he’s worth taking a shot on. He could be energized by Wrigley. The next 2 OFs taken were Milledge and C Young… younger, safer, maybe, but I’ll take my chances with Milton. .290 15 HR, anything more and I’ll be thrilled.
• Round 11 : Pick 6(126) - @xxldaddyo - Zach Greinke - This was probably the toughest decision I had to make thus far. I knew I would be going SP (yet again) but I was torn between Burnett, Gallardo and Greinke. In fact I initially selected Gallardo and then when the website asked me to confirm my decision, I hesitated, reconsidered and ultimately went with Greinke. Gallardo should be healthy and should be the ace of the Brewers (provided that he IS INDEED fully healthy), and AJ Burnett had a great 2008. But Zack Greinke has become a ground ball pitcher and come of age. He struck out more than a batter an inning in the 2H and had a 3.25 ERA during that same split. Kreikeys its Greinke!
• Round 11 : Pick 7(127) - @tommystv - Justin Verlander - Terrible ‘08, showed flashes of bouncing back after all-star break, but faltered shortly there after. ‘09 is going to be different, so I’ll take his upside in RD 11. I’m also counting on Detroit meeting ‘08 expectations in ‘09.
• Round 11 : Pick 8(128) - @sporer - Chris Young - I don’t have kids yet, but I hope that the first time they feel the ting of that hot stove, they leave it alone to avoid being burned again. Of course, how can I expect them to learn such a lesson when I myself am incapable of such cognitive learning? I scooped up Young everywhere I could last year expecting improvements on 2007’s 32 HR/27 SB performance. At the very least, I hope for similar HR-SB numbers with an uptick in AVG and RBI. I got the latter two pieces of the puzzle, but 10 fewer HRs and 13 fewer SBs to go with the slight gains. At just 25, the 30-30 potential remains at the forefront for Young.
• Round 11 : Pick 9(129) - @therotofeed - Placido Polanco - This was my worst pick in terms of timing (rrrrreach), though I love Placido Polanco as a means to raise cheap R and BA. I would blame this on the queue mechanism, but that would be a copout. For the record, I refuse to admit that Placido Polanco is not the name of the umpire in Naked Gun who tries to kill the Queen.
• Round 11 : Pick 10(130) - @dowdyism - Brian Fuentes - Fuentes takes over as the closer for a team that won 100 games last season, and is set up nicely for 90 plus wins in 2009. I heard some guy on their team last season had 62 saves in the same role, so penciling in Fuentes for 40-45 should be a pretty safe bet.
• Round 11 : Pick 11(131) - @jasoncollette - Joba Chamberlain - I’m glad he was still here in the 11th as I’ve seen him taken in the 8th. Draft him for solid skills in 150 innings and you won’t be disappointed. Expect more than that and you will be.
• Round 11 : Pick 12(132) - @seniorcircuit - Yovani Gallardo - As my second pitcher taken, I look for someone with a big upside. Before his injury experts were predicting a season of 13-15 wins and upwards of 180 Ks. His injury had nothing to do with his pitching mechanics and with a healthy season in 2009, I see him putting together a 14/177/3.65/1.27.

Here are the fantasy baseball rankings for the top ten closers for the 2008 season. I will also list the predictions from the pre-season at the bottom of this post for comparison.

1. Francisco Rodriguez, Los Angeles Angels - Set a Major league record with 62 saves, but saw his strikeouts drop by 15%, his WHIP go up and his batting average against go up. Fantasy owners couldn’t have cared less. 2 Wins | 62 Saves | 77 K’s | 2.24 ERA | 1.29 WHIP
2. Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals - A Kansas City closer making this list??? Who would have thunk it??? Soria was dominant from day one. You could even argue that Soria was more dominant than Rodriguez. 2 Wins | 42 Saves | 66 K’s | 1.60 ERA | 0.86 WHIP
3. Brad Lidge, Philadelphia Phillies - Lidge has re-emerged as a top notch closer. 2 Wins | 41 Saves | 92 K’s | 1.95 ERA | 1.23 WHIP
4. Joe Nathan, Minnesota Twins - With the departure of Johan Santana many thought that Nathan’s save total would drop. It didn’t. 1 Win | 39 Saves | 74 K’s | 1.33 ERA | 0.90 WHIP
5. Mariano “Not Juan” Rivera, New York Yankees - Rivera isn’t the elite closer he used to be, but he’s still extremely good. Those six wins are nice too. Especially since he only blew one save. 6 Wins | 39 Saves | 77 K’s | 1.40 ERA | 0.67 WHIP
6. Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox - Papelbon brought his save total up and really boosted his strikeout to walk ratio (5.60 in 2007 to 9.625 (77:8) in 2008). But his ERA also went up as did his number of blown saves. 5 Wins | 41 Saves | 77 K’s | 2.34 ERA | 0.95 WHIP
7. Jose Valverde, Houston Astros - Valverde ranks second on the saves list, but his ERA hurt his fantasy value some. he also had seven blown saves. 6 Wins | 44 Saves | 83 K’s | 3.37 ERA | 1.83 WHIP
8. Kerry Wood, Chicago Cubs - The smooth transition to the closer role was exactly what the Cubs needed. Now for Wood to become an elite closer his ERA will need to come down a bit. 5 Wins | 34 Saves | 84 K’s | 3.26 ERA | 1.09 WHIP
9. Francisco Cordero, Cincinnati Reds - Cordero has the the second highest WHIP of anyone on this list and his ERA isn’t one of an elite closer. But, he’s getting it done most of the time, and that was good enough for #9 here. 5 Wins | 34 Saves | 78 K’s | 3.33 ERA | 1.41 WHIP
10. B.J. Ryan, Toronto Blue Jays - He’s not nearly the pitcher he was before Tommy John surgery, but he’s no slouch either. 2 Wins | 32 Saves | 58 K’s | 2.95 ERA | 1.28 WHIP

2008 American League Fantasy Baseball Closer Rankings (Pre-Season)

1. Jonathan Papelbon | Boston Red Sox
2. Joe Nathan | Minnesota Twins
3. J.J. Putz | Seattle Mariners
4. Francisco Rodriguez | Los Angeles Angels
5. Bobby Jenks | Chicago White Sox
6. Mariano Rivera | New York Yankees
7. Huston Street | Oakland Athletics
8. Joakim Soria | Kansas City Royals
9. Todd Jones | Detroit Tigers
10. Troy Percival | Tampa Bay Rays
11. Joe Borowski | Cleveland Indians
12. C.J. Wilson | Texas Rangers
13. Jeremy Accardo | Toronto Blue Jays
14. Jamie Walker | Baltimore Orioles

2008 National League Fantasy Baseball Closer Rankings (Pre-Season)

1. Takashi Saito | Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Jose Valverde | Houston Astros
3. Francisco Cordero | Cincinnati Reds
4. Billy Wagner | New York Mets
5. Trevor Hoffman | San Diego Padres
6. Chad Cordero | Washington Nationals
7. Manuel Corpas | Colorado Rockies
8. Jason Isringhausen | St. Louis Cardinals
9. Brad Lidge | Philadelphia Phillies
10. Rafael Soriano | Atlanta Braves
11. Brandon Lyon | Arizona Diamonbacks
12. Kevin Gregg | Florida Marlins
13. Kerry Wood | Chicago Cubs
14. Eric Gagne | Milwaukee Brewers
15. Brian Wilson | San Francisco Giants
16. Matt Capps | Pittsburgh Pirates

I just couldn’t contain all this closer goodness to the top 10 anymore. So, now the list is comprised of 15 closers. The top two are the same as in my last top fantasy closers list, and seven of the ten from the first fantasy baseball closer list are still around.

1. Mariano Rivera | New York Yankees - Rivera is still the stud of this group. I guess he’s not getting older, he’s getting better. Or maybe he just hasn’t faced the Red Sox enough to get banged around yet. Rivera has ten saves and a 12:0 strikeout to walk ratio in 15.0 innings pitched. His ERA is perfect at 0.00 and his WHIP is pretty darned close at 0.40.
2. Joe Nathan | Minnesota Twins - Nathan has 12 saves this season in 14.0 innings of work. He’s sporting a 14:3 strikeout to walk ratio and has a 1.93 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. He gave up two earned runs and three hits in his last outing (while still recording the save) or his ERA and WHIP would be even better.
3. Brad Lidge | Philadelphia Phillies - Lidge is nine for nine in save opportunities and hasn’t allowed an earned run in 17 innings, hence his 0.00 ERA. He also has a 0.82 WHIP and more than a strikeout per inning, with 18 strikeouts and 6 walks.
4. Jonathan Papelbon | Boston Red Sox - Papelbon has blown two saves in his last three attempts and hasn’t looked sharp for about a week now (although Julio Lugo should be given the blown save on May 7th, not Paps). He’s got 2 wins, 2 losses and 11 saves this season and Papelbon’s ERA has risen almost a whole point in the last week to 2.41. His WHIP is still below one at 0.91 and he still has a great strikeout to walk ratio of 11.50 (23:2).
5. Francisco Rodriguez | Los Angeles Angels - Rodriguez leads the majors in saves with 15 in 2008. But, that’s where his dominance stops. He’s got a weak 1.22 strikeout to walk ratio (11:9), and nowhere close to the 1.30 strikeouts per inning we’re used to seeing from him (2008 total is 0.72 K’s per inning). His ERA is 2.93 and his WHIP is 1.30.
6. Brandon Lyon | Arizona Diamondbacks - Lyon has seemingly forgotten about his two blown saves in early April. He’s been a perfect nine for nine in save opportunities since April 9th, and has a total of 10 saves for the year. In 16 innings of work he’s struck out 12 and only walked 2. His ERA is 2.25 and his WHIP is 1.00.
7. Joakim Soria | Kansas City Royals - Soria is certainly pitching well as he hasn’t given up an earned run all season. Heck, he’s only given up four hits in his 14.1 innings of work. Soria has eight saves and 16 strikeouts to only one walk so far. To go along with his perfect 0.00 ERA he has a 0.35 WHIP. Soria would be much higher on this list if the Royals played well enough to allow him more saves.
8. Billy Wagner | New York Mets - Wagner is in the same boat as Soria. His numbers are dominant, but he isn’t getting a great number of saves. He only has seven saves, but he’s sporting a 0.00 ERA and a 0.61 WHIP. He also has struck out 16 batters in 14.2 innings and only walked three.
9. Troy Percival | Tampa Bay Rays - Percival has been pretty solid this season going nine for ten in save opportunities. His only blown save is also the only appearance in which he’s given up any runs (he also gave up 4 of his 6 hits for the season in that one bad outing). In 14 innings of work, Percival has 13 strikeouts and only one walk. His ERA is 1.93 and he has a very nice 0.50 WHIP.
10. Matt Capps | Pittsburgh Pirates - Capps is a perfect nine for nine in save opportunities and has a 2.70 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP. While he doesn’t strike out a lot of hitters (only 10 in 16.2 innings), Capps has been the model of consistency, only blowing two saves since taking over the closers role in June of last season.
11. Jon Rauch | Washington Nationals - Rauch has recorded four saves since being promoted to the closers position when Chad Cordero went to the DL. Rauch has seven total saves for the year and 16 strikeouts in 18.1 innings of work. His ERA is 2.95 and his WHIP is 1.04.
12. Brian Wilson | San Francisco Giants - Wilson is tied for 4th in the majors with 11 saves. He’s also striking out more than one batter per inning (17 K’s in 16.0 innings) but his 3.38 ERA and 1.44 WHIP drop him down to 12th on this list.
13. Huston Street | Oakland A’s - Street is nine for eleven in save opportunities this season, and a good portion of his 3.86 ERA came from one bad outing to start the season against the Red Sox. He’s got a 3.60 strikeout to walk ratio (18:5) and more strikeouts (18) than innings pitched (16.1).
14. George Sherrill | Baltimore Orioles - It’s tough for me to place a guy who’s 2nd in MLB in saves down at #14 on the closers list, but Sherrill has some problems to go along with his 13 saves. He’s striking out less than a batter per inning (13 K’s in 16.1 innings), but more importantly he’s walked 10 batters in 16.1 innings of work. His ERA is also high at 4.41 and his WHIP is 1.29.
15. Kevin Gregg | Florida Marlins - Gregg has seven saves this season to go along with three wins and two losses. While his 2.89 ERA and 1.29 WHIP aren’t terrible, he’s got some problems with 12 strikeouts and 10 walks in 18.2 innings. And it’s not like Gregg had one bad game and that’s why his numbers are high. He has given up, at least, one run in six of the eighteen times he’s taken the mound this season.

One of the first statistics that I look for when deciding on a trade or a free agent acquisition that involves a relief pitcher is strikeout to walk ratio (K:BB). The ratio is easy to calculate as it’s just K/BB, but it goes a long way in showing how dominant a pitcher is over the batters he faces. When considering a relief pitcher, you’d like to see more strikeouts than innings pitched, and a pretty high K:BB ratio (hopefully above 10). I’m going to share three relief pitchers with you who meet both said criteria (one might even be available in your fantasy league) and then also the other two remaining relievers who have a K:BB above 10.

Relievers with 10.00+ K:BB and More K’s than IP.

• Jonathan Papelbon | Boston Red Sox -  He has 21 strikeouts with only 1 walk. His K:BB ratio of 21.00 is the highest of any reliever in baseball with at least 10 innings pitched. He’s pitched 15.1 innings of relief.
• Joakim Soria | Kansas City Royals - He has 15 strikeouts with only 1 walk. His K:BB ratio of 15.00 ranks #2 and he’s pitched in 13.0 innings.
• Santiago Casilla | Oakland Athletics - Casilla is the one relief pitcher in this list of three that may be available in your fantasy league. He has 20 strikeouts and only two walks in 16.1 innings of work. His K:B ratio is 10.00.

Relievers with 10.00+ K:BB but fewer K’s than IP.

• Aquilino Lopez | Detroit Tigers - Lopez is an all-purpose reliever in the Tigers bullpen, but not their closer. He has 14 strikeouts and one walk in 18.2 innings. He has a K:BB ratio of 14.00.
• Mariano Rivera | New York Yankees - Rivera, mathematically speaking, has a K:BB ratio of infinity since he hasn’t walked anyone all year. But, fo our purposes, lets give him a 12.00 K:BB ratio since he has 12 strikeouts and zero walks in 13 innings of work.

Here’s the second installment of my fantasy baseball top 10 closers list.  There are a few new faces as only five closers from our first top 10 closers list made it to the second.

1. Mariano Rivera | New York Yankees - Rivera has eight saves in eight save opportunities. His ERA is a perfect 0.00 and his WHIP is 0.36. In his 11.0 innings of work he has 11 strikeouts and zero walks. These numbers are more dominant than any other closer in the game right now.
2. Joe Nathan | Minnesota Twins - Nathan also has eight saves in eight opportunities. His ERA and WHIP are identical at 0.90 and he’s worked 10.0 innings of relief. He has 10 strikeouts and only one walk.
3. Joakim Soria | Kansas City Royals - You may be asking what a guy with only six saves is doing at #3 on this list. Well, this list is for fantasy value, not just save totals, and Soria is pretty valuable. He has a 13:1 strikeout to walk ratio in 11 innings of work. And he also has a 0.00 ERA and a 0.36 WHIP.
4. Jonathan Papelbon | Boston Red Sox - Paps is the first closer with an ERA above 1.00. His is 2.25, but that was mostly a result of one bad outing against the Yankees. He has eight saves, but what is really impressive (and the reason he’s 4th on this list and not 7th or 8th) is his 20:1 strikeout to walk ratio in 12.0 innings pitched.
5. Billy Wagner | New York Mets - Wagner has six saves and a 0.00 ERA with a 0.42 WHIP. He did just blow a save last night but his ERA didn’t suffer due to a Jose Reyes throwing error. He has a 12:2 strikeout to walk ratio in 12.0 innings of work.
6. Troy Percival | Tampa Bay Rays - Percival has pitched in 9.0 innings and has recorded 5 saves. His ERA is a perfect 0.00 and his WHIP is 0.33. He has a 9:1 strikeout to walk ratio.
7. Brad Lidge | Philadelphia Phillies - Lidge has six saves in 11.0 innings of work. He also has a 0.00 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. His strikeout to walk ratio is a little rough at 12:6, but none of those walks have hurt him yet. Don’t expect that to remain true if he keep up this K:BB pace.
8. Brandon Lyon | Arizona Diamondbacks - Lyon hasn’t been the epitome of stability as he’s already blown two saves. But, his eight saves has him tied for third in MLB. His 2.77 ERA is a bit high, but his 0.85 WHIP and his 10:1 strikeout to walk ratio are keeping him grounded (and on this list).
9. Matt Capps | Pittsburgh Pirates - Capps has pitched in 11.2 innings in 2008 and has recorded 6 saves with a 8:2 strikeout to walk ratio. He has a 2.31 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP.
10. Francisco Rodriguez | Los Angeles Angels - Rodriguez’s ERA is ballooned at 3.86 due to his only blown save against Cleveland. He also has a high WHIP (1.54) as he’s given up nine hits and nine walks in 11.2 innings. He is leading MLB with 11 saves, so it’s not all bad here. He typically strikes out a lot more batters than innings pitched, but that hasn’t been the case so far in 2008 with only 9 strikeouts. The only solid aspect of his game right now is his league leading save total. Most of his other stats are currently suspect.