Crooked Pitch

Today’s pitch count is 6.

1. Seattle starter Jarrod Washburn pitched seven strong innings last night giving up only one earned run and six hits. He still took the loss as Mariners’ hitters failed to score him any runs and only managed two hits. Washburn hasn’t won a game since April 21st and his last two starts have been successful in the fact that he’s pitched 13 innings and only given up one run. But the lack of run support is killing him. Even though Washburn’s season ERA is 3.22 he’s not a great fantasy option. He’s going to get knocked around at times and when he’s on, his team just isn’t scoring runs.
2. Ouch. J.J. Putz gave up four hits and three earned runs last night without recording an out. Over his last two appearances he’s given up five earned runs in 0.1 innings of work. If he’s reverted back to the reliever who lost his job in Seattle, the Mets may look for other 8th inning options.
3. He’s only owned in 7% of Yahoo! fantasy leagues but he’s batting .304 on the season and over the last month he’s .359/.427/.511 with two home runs and 15 RBI. His name is Andy LaRoche, and you might consider taking a look at him in your fantasy league.

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A NEW website managed by Scott Woodall called WaiverSharks is beginning to find its niche!  WaiverSharks rhyme time mantra is “Deeper Sleepers Better Keepers”

Their most basic theory: Discover today’s best fantasy baseball sleepers, and you will end up with many of tomorrow’s finest fantasy baseball keepers. Keeping you a step ahead of your fantasy baseball league’s competitors means landing an Edinson Volquez before your competition even knowing he has an “N” in his name! The majority of articles WaiverSharks delve into focus on the back end of fantasy baseball drafts, as well as upside prospects that may be on the cusp of breaking through to the MLB Show.

WaiverSharks is introducing TWO new “Fantasy Tools” for 2009: One entails their commitment to perusing the waiver wire for daily hidden gems called The Shallow and The Deep. The other is Fantalytics. A comparison style blog, which analyzes two similarly ranked fantasy baseball combatants, including commentary from both sides – with a “Final Call” made on the player who is the better option for most fantasy teams.

Today, I’m going to run Fantalytics - Volume #3, which pits Cincinnati Reds slugger Joey Votto against Texas Rangers big newcomer - Chris Davis. But, to find out the “Final Call”, you’re going to have to check out WaiverSharks later today!

FANTALYTICS – VOLUME #3

By: WaiverSharks - Adam Forsyth

A pair of talented young bashers indeed, scripts these two new titans of the right-side of the infield against each other in this Special edition of FANTALYTICS.

Votto and Davis maintain an abundance of similarities at first glance:

Both are first basemen, both play half of their games in parks that are considered heavy hitters’ parks, both are considered power-hitters, and both are entering their second season in the big leagues.

Both have also made their way through the minor leagues with considerable success, chipping their way through with indications of what the future will hold.  They both can definitely go yard, and they both have the uncanny ability to drive in runs; Votto, averaging .286-20-86-14 over the last four seasons, while Davis’ average impressed with a .302-25-78-4 line in his three seasons of minor league adjustment. (You’ve heard of a “closer’s run” …that my friends was a “both” run.)

It appears that either Votto or Davis can be depended on to contribute in most statistical categories, and have a positive influence on the resurgence of their struggling clubs.

FANTALYTICS takes this opportunity to break down yet another tough call as we enter cram time for many owners entering their league draft dates.

The Case for Joey Votto
This talented 25-year old Canadian has the goods to consistently hit for power and average, and could be the nation’s next Larry Walker-type talent.  Alright, alright, I’ll try to settle down a bit as Larry’s numbers were out of this world, especially his ballooned statistics from the nine and a half seasons playing with the Rockies at Coors’ Field…I digress.

One way or the other, Joey Votto may be the closest resemblance to the Maple Ridge B.C. product that crazy Canucks have to cheer for since Larry left the game for good in 2005.

A few comforting facts about Votto that he displayed with his bat during his rookie campaign include:

1)    Similar power and average numbers at home compared to on the road.
2)    No huge stretch of time with a slump as he was able to keep a fairly consistent BA and power numbers each and every month.
3)    A good start to the season and a very strong finish show that he didn’t wear down over the course of the long major league season.
4)    And finally, the ability to hit both left handed and right handed pitchers with effectiveness - that didn’t expose any weakness or vulnerability.

Votto shows tremendous upside, extra base power, as well as a dash of presence on the base paths, as he chugged out seven steals to top off a very solid rookie campaign.  Locked in at first base, Votto’s only downfall on the surface may be his defense.  Shaky at times and ranking 6th overall in errors with 11 (Ryan Howard led the MLB with 19 at first base) he is going to have to shore up his ‘D’ in order to be a true full-time force.

I expect J.V. to be able to produce solid numbers for many years to come. While the loss of protection of Adam Dunn late in the season didn’t hurt him, I imagine that it may affect some of the pitches that will come his way in 2009.  Ultimately, Votto is a smart enough batter to adjust with a slight tweak, if anything, and will continue his growth without concern,  .

The Case for Chris Davis
Crush, (as he is affectionately referenced by Texas media) is on a skyward journey to an elite level of MLB power hitters.  Blessed with a crisp, clean and mighty swing, Davis hit round trippers at a torrent pace in his first exposure to major league pitchers.

Davis introduced himself to MLB pitching by pounding out a four-bagger in his first career start (off Phillies reliever Clay Condrey…hey, right that down, it could be a trivia answer one day!)
He followed it up with another dinger off of (the ageless wonder) Jamie Moyer in his next start, only two days later.

Upon finishing his first go’round with 17 long balls in only 295 plate appearances, it doesn’t initially seem like out of this world power; however, this kid can straight up mash.

Look a little deeper and break down his AB’s in order to understand just how much power he has.  In his first 30 appearances he knocked the cover off of the ball, knocking 10 of his season total 17 HR’s.  Oh, and that was in only 89 AB’s, an absurd pace of 1HR/8.9 AB!  He did however cool down, rounding the bases only 7 times through his final 206 AB’s for a more feet on the earth 1HR/29.4 AB.

So, which Davis is the real deal?  We at WaiverSharks.com believe that while it would be unimaginable to maintain a pace of his first 89 AB’s, (projection in 600 AB would be 67 ‘taters…that’s not going to happen) so somewhere in the middle would definitely be a true figure.

Drastic splits of numbers outline that Davis may need to continue some seasoning. Or possibly even share a platoon-type set-up so he doesn’t burn out, or visit the dark streets of “Slumpsville”.

Penciled in as the Texas Rangers everyday first baseman, Davis has the power and ability to hit 35+ homers this season. While this isn’t solely a testament to the park that he plays half of his games in, it’s a tribute to the raw power that is produced by his beastly six-foot four inch, 235 pound frame.

Furthermore, the Rangers line-up from top to bottom certainly has the ability to keep opposing pitchers up late at night - and with the potential in his bat, I definitely expect “Crush” to be a huge contributor to those nightmares.

Now, it’s up to WaiverSharks to give us the answer. To read the exclusive Fantalytics “Final Call” Check out WaiverSharks today!

I’m still catching up here on publishing the commentary from each selection in our slow mock draft. Take a look back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2,  round 3, and round 4.

• Round 5 : Pick 1(49) - @crookedpitch - David Ortiz - I know that Papi is getting older and his injury is still of concern, but with the 49th pick I’m willing to gamble that he’ll return to 30 home run form and post triple digit RBI. That Red Sox lineup is stacked. A healthy Ortiz can’t help but flourish.
• Round 5 : Pick 2(50) - @Angels2717 - Joe Mauer - In a two catcher league, you have to go for a catcher earlier than usual.  And what better way to have a great catcher in Joe Mauer.  He’ll hit over.300 and add in a bunch of everything: power and some speed.  After 5 catchers or so are drafted you get into the next tier of catchers which has a substantial drop in value.  This one pick was easy for me.
• Round 5 : Pick 3(51) - @TheRoundtable - Derrek Lee - I really debated on whether or not to take Lee or to go with Dan Uggla, but I’m a sucker for anyone that looks like T-Rex from Mr. 3000. Something like that. Lee’s consistent, and, again, that’s what I want out of my early picks. He’l hit right around .300, provide around 25-30 home runs, and drive in runs for that Cubs team. He hasn’t been the same since he was injured in 2006, but you can hardly call the steady production a true drop. I’m convinced this is about where he should go, and I got decent value on the pick. Given the talent left at other positions, I can start to line those up knowing my corners are solid.
• Round 5 : Pick 4(52) - @fakebaseball - Dan Uggla - I was afraid I was reaching a bit taking Uggla in the fifth round, but I doubt he would have made it back to me at the end of the sixth, and second base is pretty weak after you get through the early rounds. I’m hoping for another .250-.260/30 HR/100 RBI season, which would give me a strong foundation from my middle infield (pairing Uggla with my Reyes pick in round one). His streaky hitting isn’t as hard to stomach in a roto league like this as it would be in a head-to-head league. I’ll have to keep an eye on the batting average category going forward, though.
• Round 5 : Pick 5(53) - @jefeboy - Joey Votto - Not my 1st choice at 1B, but with McCann and Martin gone Votto was my best IF choice. I like the average, and I can only hope his power surges a bit. He looked great in the 2nd half of 08. And the handful of SBs doesn’t hurt. Was very tempted to add a second ace SP here, but I’d be at too much of an offensive disadvantage.
• Round 5 : Pick 6(54) - @xxldaddyo - Corey Hart -Yet another 30/30/.300 hitter. Think of him as the “poor mans” Grady Sizemore. He actually hit MORE flyballs in the 2H last year, but fewer of them went over the fence. That my friends is an anomaly that will correct itself. Plus? It’s just so damn fun to watch Bernie Brewer come down the slide at Miller Park every time Corey goes yard.
• Round 5 : Pick 7(55) - @tommystv - Alexei Ramirez - Best MI on the board, took him right where I hoped I could, don’t think I could’ve waited any longer. If you eliminate his slow start he had a 2nd round type season last year.
• Round 5 : Pick 8(56) - @sporer - Curtis Granderson - Anyone that knows me knows that there is no surprise with the Granderson pick.  He’s my favorite player in the league hands down.  But thankfully it works out that picking my favorite player is also a huge benefit to my team.  Granderson didn’t run much last year and speculation has been rampant as to why, but regardless the reason I can’t envision Leyland not giving him the green light all season in 2009.  He should coast to a .285-100-20-70-20 season with his upside approaching the 30-30 realm.
• Round 5 : Pick 9(57) - @therotofeed - Jake Peavy - I don’t love taking pitchers before the sixth round in a snake draft. But when Jake Peavy is still sitting there at pick #57, it’s probably time to grab him at a nice discount. No doubt, Peavy’s coming off some injuries playing for a lousy team. But he’s only 27 and we’ve seen super-elite skills very recently from him.  I don’t see any batters with super-elite potential left on the board. And I smell another pitching run brewing.
• Round 5 : Pick 10(58) - @dowdyism - Cole Hamels - I am very pleasantly surprised that Cole Hamels fell to me at the back of the 5th round.  I rank him right up there with C.C. Sabathia in the group behind Johan Santana and Tim Lincecum.  His workload has increased each of the past three years, so there is a belief that he is now a greater injury risk, but his numbers are rock-solid, and that’s what I am looking for in a fantasy ace.
• Round 5 : Pick 11(59) - @jasoncollette - Jacoby Ellsbury - With that pick, I’m done drafting steals for quite some time. He is only a 3 category playe but he has the potential to max out in those three categories which is why he is enticing.
• Round 5 : Pick 12(60) - @seniorcircuit - Chipper Jones -I know, I know, he’s an injury risk, I get that. I needed some power at third base after the dependable guys were off the board. Every year he gets hurt but you can’t ignore the fact that over the last 3 years he has hit at least .320 when he is healthy. His power numbers are coming down but that is the result of him not playing a full season. If he plays in 130-150 games I would count on 85/30/100/5/.325 but realistically you should expect 70/25/85/5/.330

It’s still early, but I wanted get a current look at the first base position for every team. Designated hitters are not on this list, and players like Giambi (who hasn’t signed yet) or Billy Butler (DH on the depth chart) aren’t going to be included here until their status changes.

Here are the 2009 fantasy first base rankings.

Update [1/16/2009 10:31 PM]: Now that Michael Young has calmed down, stopped whining, and agreed to play third base, Chris Davis is firmly entrenched as the first baseman and can be added to this list. Hank Blalock has been moved down on this list accordingly.

1. Albert Pujols | St. Louis Cardinals - Dropped on draft boards last year due to injury concerns. He shouldn’t have! The numbers he put up were sick and he can do it again. As long as his elbow stays healthy. <g>
2. Ryan Howard | Philadelphia Phillies - If Howard hit north of .275 he’d be the #1 ranked player in all of fantasy baseball. But, he only hits .251 and that detracts a bit from his 48 home runs and 146 RBI. Feel good about drafting Howard’s power numbers, but get some decent average hitter to supplement later on.
3. Lance Berkman | Houston Astros - Berkman hit 88 points higher in the first half last season than he did in the second half. All his other stats followed suit. If his second half didn’t stink so badly, Berkman would have been the #2 guy here instead of Howard. Still, Berkman contributed massively in all five stat categories and there aren’t too many reasons to think he won’t do so again in 2009.
4. Mark Teixeira | New York Yankees - Power output could go up in the Big Apple. His ‘08 numbers were nothing to sneeze at. You can draft him expecting at least a repeat of last year and hope for a bit more.
5. Miguel Cabrera | Detroit Tigers - An off year in 2008 really has Cabrera low on this list. He did turn it on in the second half, so don’t fret too much over grabbing Cabrera early.
6. Adrian Gonzalez | San Diego Padres - Gonzalez finally moves up into the elite 1B area, right where his 36 home runs and 119 RBI belong.
7. Justin Morneau | Minnesota Twins - Morneau’s home run total dropped in ‘08, but he still contributed more than enough to earn runner up status in the AL MVP race. Morneau will be off the board by the second round. If he gets his power numbers back up, that’ll be a bargain.
8. Kevin Youkilis | Boston Red Sox - Youk is a .300-30-100-100 guy? He is now. And he should be for the next few years. Youk in the third round is safe. Youk in the fourth or fifth round is a steal.
9. Prince Fielder | Milwaukee Brewers - Fielder is being overvalued a bit due to his young age and high home run potential. Don’t draft him expecting 40+ dingers, but know that he could possibly get there.
10. Carlos Delgado | New York Mets - His power numbers were there for most of the year, but Delgado really increased his batting average in the second half. At almost 37, he’s aging, but he still has lots of fight in him.
11. Aubrey Huff | Baltimore Orioles - Huff returned back to his early 2000’s form with 32 home runs and 100+ RBI in ‘08. You can’t grab him too early as nobody is sure if this was a return to normal, or if 30 home runs is an outlier. But once the big boys are off of the board at first base, Huff is the next logical choice.
12. Jorge Cantu | Florida Marlins - With Jacobs gone, Cantu will slide to the first base side for 2009. He approached 30 home runs and 100 RBI in 2008 and could do the same in ‘09. Don’t forget that 2009 will be Cantu’s 27-year-old year. Could a break out be imminent?
13. Chris Davis | Texas Rangers - In 295 at-bats last season Davis belted 17 home runs and drove in 55; two reasons for great optimism for 2009. However, he had a strike out rate of 29.8% and a hit rate of 35.3% which might foretell bumpy roads ahead. He’s being hyped up on a grand scale this off-season so you’re going to have to overpay to get him.
14. Derrek Lee | Chicago Cubs - Lee isn’t getting back to his 2005 form ever again. Expect something more like 20-25 homers, 80-90 RBI, and a few stolen bases to keep him in the top 15.
15. Carlos Pena | Tampa Bay Rays - Pena’s power potential is what keeps him ranked this high amongst first basemen. Because it sure isn’t his .247 batting average. You’d better have some other players to boost your batting average if you grab Pena.
16. Joey Votto | Cincinnati Reds - Votto should back up a fantastic rookie season with an even better ‘09 campaign. Votto could even bat north of .300 and blast 30 homers. If that happens he’s a huge steal here.
17. Mike Jacobs | Kansas City Royals - See Carlos Pena. Jacobs is devalued even more due to the fact that there are so many first basemen in Kansas City. A slump for too long won’t be allowed. Nor will his inability to hit lefties.
18. Adam LaRoche | Pittsburgh Pirates - Missed out on 100 at-bats which may have kept him from the 30 home run mark. He has fewer base runners to drive in than most of the big guys at 1B and he can’t hit lefties. So, this is about as high as LaRoche goes among first basemen.
19. James Loney | Los Angeles Dodgers - Loney’s power isn’t coming along like many expected but his batting average is keeping him somewhat valuable in fantasy circles. He’s still only going to be 25 this season so there’s still time to grow. 10 - 15 home runs and a batting average approaching .300 is what you should expect.
20. Ryan Garko | Cleveland Indians - Garko’s 14 home runs and 90 RBI come in just 495 at-bats. Until Garko approaches the 600 at-bat mark he’s never going to progress further as a fantasy option.
21. Casey Kotchman | Atlanta Braves - Kotchman is only going to hit you 10 - 15 home runs and approach the .280 mark in batting average. There’s not much upside here.
22. Lyle Overbay | Toronto Blue Jays - Overbay’s days of 20+ dingers and a .300 batting average are over. He’s a serviceable .270 hitter with home runs totals in the low teens, at best.
23. Paul Konerko | Chicago White Sox - Konerko’s power numbers and batting average are declining rapidly. 2009 might be his final chance to get back on track towards fantasy relevance, but don’t pay too much to find out if he does.
24. Todd Helton | Colorado Rockies - Helton’s age caught up with him as he spent a lot of time on the disabled list for the first time in his career. If healthy, he’s more like a .280 hitter with 15 or so home runs. If…
25. Daric Barton | Oakland Athletics - Barton has never shown the power potential, either in the minors or at the MLB level, that people seem to expect from him. Don’t draft him thinking it’s going to somehow materialize now.
26. Chad Tracy | Arizona Diamondbacks - Tracy might not be the best option at first base for the Diamondbacks, but that’s what they’re rolling with in ‘09. You shouldn’t.
27. Kendry Morales | Los Angeles Angels - With Teixeira out Morales is going to get his chance at first base. There is some upside here as he’s shown power in the minors, but he shouldn’t be anywhere close to the middle or top of your draft list.
28. Nick Johnson | Washington Nationals - Johnson, when healthy, is a viable candidate as a #2 first baseman. But, he’s not healthy, and hasn’t been for a while.
29. Hank Blalock | Texas Rangers - If only he could stay healthy and reach 400+ at-bats, something he hasn’t done since 2006. Don’t spend too much speculating though.
30. Bryan Lahair | Seattle Mariners - Lahair isn’t really a long term option for the Mariners and he shouldn’t any kind of an option for your fantasy team.
31. Travis Ishikawa | San Francisco Giants - The Giants are looking at the free agent market for anyone that they can bring in so Ishikawa won’t have to be kept on the opening day roster. Enough said.