Crooked Pitch

• Chone Figgins batted .244 in April, .333 in May, and is now hitting .393 so far in June.
• In his last 8 games, Mark Reynolds is 12 for 30 with 5 doubles, 5 homers, and 11 RBI.
• After a fiery start, Johnny Damon only has 12 hits for the entire month of June, and is batting a measly .231 during that month.
• Since April 19th, Kyle Farnsworth has only given up 1 earned run in 18.2 innnings to go along with 19 strikeouts.
• Scott Rolen is batting a monsterous .415 in June, with a .325 mark for the season so far. He is only owned in 35% of ESPN fantasy leagues.
• In his last 13 games, Juan Pierre is 11 for 55 with only 3 walks.
• In his last 4 starts, Gil Meche has only given up 3 earned runs in 29 innings. During this time, he has only given up 19 hits while striking out 26.
• B.J. Upton is 7 for his last 21, and is hitting .281 so far in June after a terrible start to the season.
• Johan Santana has been anything but impressive so far in June. He is 1-2 with a 9.56 ERA, and has surrendered 24 hits and 4 walks in only 16 innings pitched.

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Pitchers and catchers are reporting this week. That makes this the perfect time to start working on the rankings for starting pitchers.

Today, let’s look at the top ten:

1. Tim Lincecum | San Francisco Giants - The real question at the top of the starting pitcher rankings is who to rank #1 between Lincecum and Santana. I like Lincecum to win strikeouts and ERA and Santana to get more wins and have a better WHIP. I’m giving Lincecum the nod here as I think he crushed Santana in strikeouts and the other three categories are relatively similar.
2. Johan Santana | New York Mets - I must be crazy to rank a guy #2 when I feel he’ll lead the league in wins, strike out 200+ and lead all starting pitchers in WHIP. Call me crazy, I just think Lincecum is a little more special.
3. C.C. Sabathia | New York Yankees - I like Sabathia to be a top three starting pitcher in wins and to keep his WHIP under 1.20 and strike out close to 200. I do worry about his return to the American League though.
4. Cole Hamels | Philadelphia Phillies - Hamels will finish just behind Sabathis in wins, strikeouts and ERA but actually might have more upside. His fabulous post-season performance last season should give him a huge shot of confidence going into ‘09.
5. Roy Halladay | Toronto Blue Jays - Halladay’s K/9 spiked dramatically last season; a trend that will probably normalize in ‘09. He won’t win 20 again, his numbers will still be very ace-like.
6. Brandon Webb | Arizona Diamondbacks - Webb is the model of consistency here. He’s gone five years in a row with over 200 innings pitched and 30 starts. You know exactly what you’re going ot get when you grab Webb.
7. Jake Peavy | San Diego Padres - If there was a dropoff point among the starting pitchers (read: tier) this would be the first one. Peavy isn’t the same pitcher he used to be (which is hard to say about a 27-year-old), but you can still count on a sub 3.50 ERA, double digit wins and almost 200 strikeouts.
8. Dan Haren | Arizona Diamondbacks - Haren gives the Diamondbacks what might be the best one-two punch in baseball on the mound. He’s been trending wonderfully with his strikeout totals, WHIP and win totals. He may not even be done improving.
9. Roy Oswalt | Houston Astros - It seemed like everything that was hit in the air against Oswalt in the first half of last season left the ballpark. He corrected that in the second half and returned to the premium pitcher we all knew he could be. Don’t pay for second half numbers, but realize that he’s a 15-win guy who will stay well below the 4.00 ERA mark.
10. James Shields | Tampa Bay Rays - Shields has grown as a pitcher in each of the last two seasons and does just about everything well. At age 27, expect another growth year in ‘09.

We’re booking along now. At this pace we’ll be done with this slow mock draft by mid-June.

It doesn’t matter how long it takes as long as you learn something, or at least laugh at us a little. Here’s the results from round two; a round where we see the first pitcher taken and the first arguments brew about reach picks.

• Round 2 : Pick 1(13) - @seniorcircuit - Matt Holliday - Taking 2 guys who will be playing for brand new teams in brand new ballparks.  You can’t ignore a 5 category player in the 2nd round, who I think will bounce back and put up numbers like 2006-2007. Possible 100/25/100/25/.320 season for him in 2009.
• Round 2 : Pick 2(14) - @jasoncollette - Ian Kinsler - I didn’t think Kinsler would be there at 14 so I’m happy with him. He’s a premium player at a premium position and could finish as a top 10 player if he can stay healthy this year.
• Round 2 : Pick 3(15) - @dowdyism - Lance Berkman -A bit of a boring pick, but there is no reason Berkman can’t keep up his 30 HR/100 RBI/.300 AVG pace in 2009.  I considered both Jimmy Rollins and Dustin Pedroia here, but fell in love with the lumber.
• Round 2 : Pick 4(16) - @therotofeed - Jimmy Rollins -I picked Rollins betting that he’d return a bit more value than last year, although certainly nowhere near his 2007 numbers.  He looked at a lot more pitches last year per AB than he has in the past, and I’m guessing that it had to do with his early season injuries. He gets more aggressive this year and I think some power returns.
• Round 2 : Pick 5(17) - @sporer - Carlos Beltran -Though his home run totals have declined yearly since 2006, Carlos Beltran has raised his batting average and stolen bases yearly over the same stretch.  It isn’t easy to find $30 earners and a strong case could be made for Beltran in the late 1st round as far as I’m concerned.  I was thrilled to pick him up in the mid-second round.  He is a bona fide 4-category producer with a tremendous power-speed combo.  Prior to last season his batting average was nothing to write home about, but it wasn’t a detriment to the roster, either.  Last year’s .284 proved quite usable and it wouldn’t be out of bounds to project an average creeping up near .300 this year as the second level numbers suggest he has been through some bad luck in the AVG department the past three seasons.  With his 40-40 potential window all but closed, he is no longer a “sexy” pick, but he is as rock solid of a producer as you can hope to get when building the foundation of your team.
• Round 2 : Pick 6(18) - @tommystv - Evan Longoria -My middle infield slant comes from a place of desiring top talent at thin positions. Jimmy Rollins was my ideal here, and no I’m not a Phillies fan. After picking Rollins I was gonna take a hard look at who ever the best 3B on my board was. This would have been in the  Aramis or Chipper range. Well since Rollins was gone there was no SS with any value at this spot, so my choice came down to Pedroia for my MI spot (and a nice piece of trade bait in either Pedroia or Utley later on) or Longoria. I went Longoria mainly because I like the pop, and also because I see a solid drop off at 3rd after him because of the health concerns of Ramirez and Chipper.
• Round 2 : Pick 7(19) - @xxldaddyo - Dustin Pedroia -I had planned on taking Evan Longoria in the second round (he, Sizemore and Hamilton are the cornerstones of my regular Roto league), but with Tommystv snatching him up (who also happens to be in my regular roto league) I went with last year’s MVP Dustin Pedroia. He’s not likely to repeat his numbers from last year, but the BA is REAL and when you factor in that he has 20/20 potential and position scarcity? It was just too hard to pass up on Pedroia.
• Round 2 : Pick 8(20) - @jefeboy - Johan Santana -I really struggled with this one on many levels. No SP had been taken yet, and there are still some tasty bats out there. I considered Carlos Lee; love the dependability. Thought about Brian Roberts, but that felt like a little bit of a reach in the 2nd round. So I settled on a SP, and even then… lots of people would have taken Timmah or Sabathia, but I’ll go with the grand old master. Of course now I have 2 Mets after 2 rounds. Oops…
• Round 2 : Pick 9(21) - @fakebaseball - Alfonso Soriano -I chose Soriano with my second pick with some misgivings. I took him because he was the best-available player on the board in my mind, but my top two picks are both leadoff hitters, so I’ve started off in the hole with regard to RBI. It’s something I’ll have to try to correct later in the draft.
• Round 2 : Pick 10(22) - @TheRoundtable - B.J. Upton -I know, not the most conventional of picks with BJ Upton. I love the speed factor, and this is another guy that can hit for average on top of it. He’s getting on base, and that generates runs. The Rays lineup is only getting better, so I’ll trust him knowing that I have another pick pretty soon where I can grab more power numbers.
• Round 2 : Pick 11(23) - @Angels2717 - Carlos Lee -Taking Carlos in the late second round pleases me.  I enjoy his overall power and his batting average that keeps rising (.314 last year).  I always enjoy having a power outfielder and getting a solid one early is something I think most drafters should do.  His 100+ RBIs and a possible 30+ homers and .300+ average intrigues me in the late second round.  Especially in a fairly stacked Astros lineup, he should be racking up the RBIs.  I was tempted by either a Lincecum or Sabathia pick, but I thought I would wait a round or two to get my pitchers.
• Round 1 : Pick 1 - @crookedpitch - Justin Morneau -I’ve decided to go with power for the next few picks. Instead of arbitrarily grabbing the most home runs available, I wanted to consider the other offensive categories with this pick. In 2008, 28 players registered 100 or more RBI. Of those 28 players only 11 of them batted over .300. And of those 11 who batted over .300 and drove in 100+, seven are already off the board. With Morneau I take one of the remaining four hitters who are both RBI and batting average studs. I’ll enjoy the 20+ home runs and the almost 100 runs scored as well.

The age old argument of which players belong in the first round of a fantasy baseball draft is as vicious and friendly as a Lucy versus Ricky fight. All of us fantasy GM’s love each other, but we can never agree, 100%, on anything.

For upcoming 2009 fantasy drafts we’ll continue to argue the merits of the 12 players selected in round one all the way up until Opening Day. In an effort to truly understand the first round (something that we’ll never accomplish) we need to break it down.

My first thought was that the first round needs to be broken down into three tiers. Each of these tiers will contain players who are interchangeable within the tier, but don’t really fit into the other tiers. Upon further review, I feel four tiers are needed for the 2009 first round.

Tier One: Hanley Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, and David Wright.

These four players are the sole members of tier one because they are the only four players who have been selected with the first pick in the draft over at Mock Draft Central over the past two weeks. As you’ll see by their average draft positions and their highest and lowest spot taken statistics, it’s often agreed that these four belong at the top of the draft. Not many agree on where they should go. It depends a lot on personal preference (either for a player or for a particular stat category) and a little on risk.

• Ramirez - 1.35 ADP | Earliest - 1st | Latest - 4th
• Rodriguez - 2.11 ADP | Earliest - 1st | Latest - 5th
• Pujols - 3.01 ADP | Earliest - 1st | Latest - 7th
• Wright - 4.42 ADP | Earliest - 1st | Latest - 7th

Tier Two: Jose Reyes

I had originally thought that Reyes would be the fifth member of tier one. But, since he has not been taken first, and he’s the only remaining player who is always taken in the first round, I felt that he warranted a tier of his own.

• Reyes - 4.62 ADP | Earliest - 2nd | Latest - 10th

Tier Three: Grady Sizemore, Miguel Cabrera and Jimmy Rollins

These three are generally the next three that are considered to go off of the board. You could almost argue that Sizemore belongs in the tier with Reyes, but he’s been taken outside of the first round periodically, so he’s banished to tier three. Rollins almost was knocked down to tier four as he’s been selected pretty late at times. But, he just snuck into tier three because his ADP is under 10. That’s the cutoff from tier three to tier four; you must have an ADP under 10 to be in tier three.

• Sizemore - 6.63 ADP | Earliest - 3rd | Latest - 14th
• Cabrera - 7.22 ADP | Earliest - 4th | Latest - 16th
• Rollins - 9.46 ADP | Earliest - 6th | Latest - 18th

Tier Four: Josh Hamilton, Ryan Braun, Ian Kinsler and Ryan Howard

Here are the four players who make up the end of round one. The variances among them are huge. Sometimes you see them taken in the third slot, sometimes as late as 20th. These four are also the players that are most argued out of the first round and replaced by players like Chase Utley, Johan Santana, Mark Teixeira and Matt Hoilliday. What seperates the members of tier four from those just outside of it is their ADP. Each member of tier four has an ADP under twelve. They are the only remaining players who have that destinction.

• Hamilton - 10.51 ADP | Earliest - 4th | Latest - 19th
• Braun - 10.76 ADP | Earliest - 4th | Latest - 19th
• Kinsler - 11.10 ADP | Earliest - 6th | Latest - 20th
• Howard - 11.52 ADP | Earliest - 3rd | Latest - 20th

Here are the fantasy baseball rankings for the top ten starting pitchers for the 2008 season. I will also list the predictions from the pre-season at the bottom of this post for comparison.

1. Roy Halladay, Toronto Blue Jays - Halladay was one of four pitchers to win 20 games and was one of ten to strike out 200 or more hitters. He also finished second the league with nine complete games. 20 Wins | 206 K’s | 2.78 ERA | 1.05 WHIP
   
2. Cliff Lee, Cleveland Indians - His 22 wins were 17 more than his win total from 2007. He also cut his ERA in half and then some. 22 Wins | 170 K’s | 2.54 ERA | 1.11 WHIP
3. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants - Lincecum led the league in strikeouts and was in the top seven in wins pitching for a team with only 72 wins. 18 Wins | 265 K’s | 2.62 ERA | 1.17 WHIP
4. C.C. Sabathia, Milwaukee Brewers - The move to Milwaukee was the best thing to happen to Sabathia as his ERA dropped from 3.83 to 1.65 and his win total skyrocketed. 17 Wins | 251 K’s | 2.70 ERA | 1.11 WHIP
5. Johan Santana, New York Mets - No pitcher received more off-season hype last year than Santana. And while he seemed to accumulate strong stats quietly during the season, these numbers truly do shout that Santana is among the leagues best pitchers. 16 Wins | 206 K’s | 2.53 ERA | 1.15 WHIP
6. Ryan Dempster, Chicago Cubs - Dempster finished tenth in the league in ERA among starters with at least 100 innings of work. He was also 12th in strikeouts. Not bad for a guy who wasn’t a top notch reliever. 17 Wins | 187 K’s | 2.96 ERA | 1.21 WHIP
7. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies - Hamels might have lost ten times in 2008, but his ERA was on the very low side of 3.00 and his strikeouts almost hit the 200 mark. 14 wins isn’t too shabby either. 14 Wins | 196 K’s | 3.09 ERA | 1.08 WHIP
8. Dan Haren, Arizona Diamondbacks - Haren faded a little bit in the second half but his 200+ strikeouts, monster WHIP, and win total force him to be added to this list. 16 Wins | 206 K’s | 3.33 ERA | 1.13 WHIP
9. Rich Harden, Chicago Cubs - Harden’s inclusion here was a tough choice for me. On one hand he only started 25 games and pitched 148.0 innings. On the other hand he led the league in ERA, was in the top three in WHIP, and in the top 20 in strikeouts. 10 Wins | 181 K’s | 2.07 ERA | 1.06 WHIP
10. Brandon Webb, Arizona Diamondbacks - It was almost impossible to leave the MLB wins leader off this top ten list. If not for a rough June we might be talking Cy Young. 22 Wins | 183 K’s | 3.30 ERA | 1.20 WHIP

Below are the pre-season starting pitcher rankings.

2008 American League Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Rankings

1. Josh Beckett | Boston Red Sox
2. C.C. Sabathia | Cleveland Indians
3. Erik Bedard | Baltimore Orioles
4. Justin Verlander | Detroit Tigers
5. Scott Kazmir | Tampa Bay Rays
6. John Lackey | Los Angeles Angels
7. Felix Hernandez | Seattle Mariners
8. Roy Halladay | Toronto Blue Jays
9. Daisuke Matsuzaka | Boston Red Sox
10. James Shields | Tampa Bay Rays
11. Fausto Carmona | Cleveland Indians
12. Javier Vazquez | Chicago White Sox
13. Kelvim Escobar | Los Angeles Angels
14. A.J. Burnett | Toronto Blue Jays
15. Chien-Ming Wang | New York Yankees
16. Francisco Liriano | Minnesota Twins
17. Jered Weaver | Los Angeles Angels
18. Joe Blanton | Oakland Athletics
19. Jeremy Bonderman | Detroit Tigers
20. Curt Schilling | Boston Red Sox

2008 National League Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Rankings

1. Johan Santana | New York Mets
2. Jake Peavy | San Diego Padres
3. Brandon Webb | Arizona Diamondbacks
4. Cole Hamels | Philadelphia Phillies
5. Dan Haren | Arizona Diamondbacks
6. Aaron Harang | Cincinnati Reds
7. Carlos Zambrano | Chicago Cubs
8. Roy Oswalt | Houston Astros
9. John Smoltz | Atlanta Braves
10. Chris Young | San Diego Padres
11. Brett Myers | Philadelphia Phillies
12. Ben Sheets | Milwaukee Brewers
13. Matt Cain | San Francisco Giants
14. Rich Hill | Chicago Cubs
15. Brad Penny | Los Angeles Dodgers
16. Yovani Gallardo | Milwaukee Brewers
17. Jeff Francis | Colorado Rockies
18. Ted Lilly | Chicago Cubs
19. Tim Lincecum | San Francisco Giants
20. Tim Hudson | Atlanta Braves

It’s not too early to talk about Spring Training 2009. Especially, if you’ve already been sent home for the season.

• Oakland’s Justin Duchscherer’s season was cut short by what we now know was loose cartilage in his hip. His 2008 record was 10-8 with a 2.54 ERA, but jumped into fantasy notoriety for his great results in the month of June. In June he was 4-1 with a 1.45 ERA and joined most fantasy rosters at that time. According to Duchscherer, he’ll be ready for Spring Training.

Justin Duchscherer’s right hip problem at the end of the season was the result of loose cartilage, which was cleaned out in an arthroscopic procedure, the A’s All-Star right-hander said Wednesday.

“Now I know I’ll be ready to go during spring training,” he said.

The recovery time is two months, according to Duchscherer, and he expects he will not miss any time next spring. He’s currently on crutches, but he said he’ll be walking in less than a week.

• It turns out that you can beat the Marlins on short rest and with torn cartilage in your left knee. At least you can if you’re Johan Santana. An MRI earlier this week revealed the tear, which Santana has since had surgically repaired.

New York Mets ace Johan Santana had arthroscopic surgery on torn cartilage in his left knee and is expected to be ready for spring training. The injury was revealed in a magnetic resonance imaging Tuesday.