Crooked Pitch

• Chone Figgins batted .244 in April, .333 in May, and is now hitting .393 so far in June.
• In his last 8 games, Mark Reynolds is 12 for 30 with 5 doubles, 5 homers, and 11 RBI.
• After a fiery start, Johnny Damon only has 12 hits for the entire month of June, and is batting a measly .231 during that month.
• Since April 19th, Kyle Farnsworth has only given up 1 earned run in 18.2 innnings to go along with 19 strikeouts.
• Scott Rolen is batting a monsterous .415 in June, with a .325 mark for the season so far. He is only owned in 35% of ESPN fantasy leagues.
• In his last 13 games, Juan Pierre is 11 for 55 with only 3 walks.
• In his last 4 starts, Gil Meche has only given up 3 earned runs in 29 innings. During this time, he has only given up 19 hits while striking out 26.
• B.J. Upton is 7 for his last 21, and is hitting .281 so far in June after a terrible start to the season.
• Johan Santana has been anything but impressive so far in June. He is 1-2 with a 9.56 ERA, and has surrendered 24 hits and 4 walks in only 16 innings pitched.

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One of the finest arts of all fantasy sports, and one of the key ingredients to fantasy victory is the concept of buying low and selling high. It is the classic guessing game of fantasy sports, and those who do it well tend to see impressive results in the fantasy world.

How can one tell though?

How can we know that someone who is batting .340 in May will go on to bat .260 in June? Who can guess when a player homers twice in May, that the same player will homer 14 times in June? And who has the crystal ball that shows which pitcher will win 5 games one month, yet only win one game the following? The answer is…NOBODY!!!!!!!!!! You can raise your chances of being good at this classic guessing game by looking at certain statistics and trends, but a good hunch or gut-feeling can go a long way.

At one third of the way through the 2009 season, let’s examine a few possible sell high candidates.

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We’re starting double digit round numbers now. Take a look back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2,  round 3, round 4, round 5, round 6, round 7, round 8 and round 9.

• Round 10 : Pick 1(109) - @seniorcircuit - Mark DeRosa - One of my favorite guys to target this year in the draft because of his position eligibility, according to most league rules he should be eligible at 2B, 3B, and OF. But I don’t see him increasing his power numbers this season just being a steady producer at one of your infield. He’s the type of guy who won’t be an elite option at a position but won’t hurt you in the long run. Expect 85/17/80/.280 from him in 2009.
• Round 10 : Pick 2(110) - @jasoncollette - Mike Aviles - Aviles is bound to disappoint those who are expecting more of what he delivered last year but given how thin the middle infield is, the fact he qualifies at both SS and 2B make him a bit more valuable.
• Round 10 : Pick 3(111) - @dowdyism - Jose Lopez - I missed the run on the top tier second basemen, so when some of the second grouping came off the board, I grabbed Lopez. I think many of the guys in this area are interchangeable, but I really liked Lopez’s jump in SLG% while posting a career high in AVG.
• Round 10: Pick 4(112) - @therotofeed - Mike Jacobs - I think this is the first year Jacobs hits above .280, and that he gets plenty of PT in Kansas City, which incidentally has a better team than people realize. I’m looking for 35 HR too.
• Round 10 : Pick 5(113) - @sporer - Derek Jeter - I about vomited when I made it official that I had taken two Yankees in a row, but Jeter was the right pick here. He is generally overrated to the nth degree, but he almost ended up a value pick in this league of sharks reticent to fall victim to the Yankee mystique. When you draw a ton of your value from runs and batting average, you’re no longer a glamor pick, but getting a $20ish dollar value at middle infield in the 10th round is a coup. My Jeter pick came AFTER Mike Aviles was taken… that floored me. Not that Aviles was a wrong pick, more that I was in a league with players so adept at seeing past name.
• Round 10 : Pick 6(114) - @tommystv - Edison Volquez - Amazing start and then tapered off a bit. I don’t think this is a Nomo situation he hasn’t been solved, he just tired late. Ball Park is another minus, but I think my backyard would be sufficient enough to keep that changeup within it’s confines.
• Round 10 : Pick 7(115) - @xxldaddyo - Francisco Liriano - The second year back from Tommy John surgery is when pitchers are finally healthy. Although Liriano showed some signs of life in the 2H of 08 (3.91 ERA with 6 wins in 76 IP), he’ll be ready to shine in 09.  Combined with Cy Young winner, Cliff Lee, Liriano gives my team to front end Aces to provide a wicked 1-2 punch at the top of my roto rotation. And at the end of this season, Liriano will have Twinkie fans in the Metrodome simply asking, “Johan who?”
• Round 10 : Pick 8(116) - @jefeboy - Bengie Molina - Easily a top-ten catcher, if not top five, so I’m thrilled to round out a very solid IF with the Benge. I’m going to need his HRs.
• Round 10 : Pick 9(117) - @fakebaseball - Chris Iannetta - I almost always avoid first-tier catchers in drafts because they don’t provide enough offense despite the positional scarcity. In ‘09, I have as my second tier Doumit, Iannetta, B. Molina, and Napoli, with a drop-off after that. My goal is to have both catchers in a two-C league from this tier. As Doumit and Molina were already gone by my turn in the tenth, and round 10 or later is where I feel comfortable taking a tier-2 catcher, I drafted Iannetta. He’s a potentially higher-upside C who I think could even be a lower 1st tier catcher by 2010.
• Round 10 : Pick 10(118) - @TheRoundtable - Bobby Jenks - Time to finally grab a closer. Jenks was the best and most reliable of what was left on the board. If you take a look at the fact as many as 8 jobs are time shares and others could change hands, I’ll take knowing that he will be the guy at the end of games as solace.
• Round 10 : Pick 11(119) - @Angels2717 - Johnny Damon - Damon has shown that he can play at a fairly high level but hasn’t been too consistent about it. I’m looking for a solid year out of him and hopefully consistent. He’s now playing in a very stacked Yankees lineup and hopefully he’ll be at the top of Tex and A-Rod.  I’m also looking for a high average season after picking my last OF in Dunn.
• Round 10 : Pick 12(120) - @crookedpitch - Felix Hernandez - King Felix… What to say here… On the bad side of the coin he pitches for a bad team which will make wins hard to come by. On the good side he’s a strike out monster, just notched his 3rd consecutive season of 190+ innings pitched, and is only 22-years-old.