Crooked Pitch

It’s round eleven. This is the portion of the draft where teams really look to fill needs. It’s also where a lot of fantasy GM’s will start taking HUGE chances on sleepers. Take a look back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2,  round 3, round 4, round 5, round 6, round 7, round 8, round 9 and round 10.

• Round 11 : Pick 1(121) - @crookedpitch - Joakim Soria - The only reason Soria isn’t ranked higher on relief pitcher draft lists is that he pitches for the Royals. By overlooking him you’re overlooking one of, if not, the most dominant closer in the game. I was happy to make him my first closer drafted.
• Round 11 : Pick 2(122) - @Angels2717 - Xavier Nady - Taking back-to-back Yankees outfielders isn’t an ideal move for me, but I just realized how explosive Nady was in that last half of the season this past year. He was great in the meat of that order and now he’ll be probably hitting behind two powerhouse infielders (A-rod and Tex). Looking for a repeat of that great last half of the season.
• Round 11 : Pick 3(123) - @TheRoundtable - Jorge Cantu - Cantu makes you actually figure out what you believe. If you think last year was an anomaly, then you avoid him. If you think that he can build on that, and look at the fact he had some success even with Tampa, you’re willing to buy on this one now. I looked at corners here with the feeling that there is much more depth in pitching and outfield that I can grab in later rounds.
• Round 11 : Pick 4(124) - @fakebaseball - Mike Napoli - Choosing Napoli here, which I’m sure some of my league-mates would consider a reach, is an example of trusting your own rankings and research, and also how decisions made early in draft can impact later decisions. As mentioned in my 10th-round analysis, I project Napoli as a 2nd-tier catcher in ‘09, and by this point in our draft, he was the only catcher left from that tier. Usually I’m more fixated on grabbing pitching by now, but since I uncharacteristically chose three pitchers in the first ten rounds because of the nature of this particular draft, I felt comfortable taking a non-pitcher here if needed. Napoli usually falls significantly further in drafts than rd 11, but I didn’t want to take the risk of waiting, especially since I do see Napoli–despite significant misgivings on my part–as returning positive value even taken this high in a draft, and I didn’t like the alternatives should I wait and not end up with him on my roster. (Sure, the  temptation was there for Wieters, but there are too many unknowns with him, and the contrarian in me cringes at the defeaning hype surrounding him - when something seems too good to be true, it usually is…)
• Round 11 : Pick 5(125) - @jefeboy - Milton Bradley - See Huff, Aubrey. Another guy who make have peaked in 2008, and one with health risks at that. But at this point in the draft, he’s worth taking a shot on. He could be energized by Wrigley. The next 2 OFs taken were Milledge and C Young… younger, safer, maybe, but I’ll take my chances with Milton. .290 15 HR, anything more and I’ll be thrilled.
• Round 11 : Pick 6(126) - @xxldaddyo - Zach Greinke - This was probably the toughest decision I had to make thus far. I knew I would be going SP (yet again) but I was torn between Burnett, Gallardo and Greinke. In fact I initially selected Gallardo and then when the website asked me to confirm my decision, I hesitated, reconsidered and ultimately went with Greinke. Gallardo should be healthy and should be the ace of the Brewers (provided that he IS INDEED fully healthy), and AJ Burnett had a great 2008. But Zack Greinke has become a ground ball pitcher and come of age. He struck out more than a batter an inning in the 2H and had a 3.25 ERA during that same split. Kreikeys its Greinke!
• Round 11 : Pick 7(127) - @tommystv - Justin Verlander - Terrible ‘08, showed flashes of bouncing back after all-star break, but faltered shortly there after. ‘09 is going to be different, so I’ll take his upside in RD 11. I’m also counting on Detroit meeting ‘08 expectations in ‘09.
• Round 11 : Pick 8(128) - @sporer - Chris Young - I don’t have kids yet, but I hope that the first time they feel the ting of that hot stove, they leave it alone to avoid being burned again. Of course, how can I expect them to learn such a lesson when I myself am incapable of such cognitive learning? I scooped up Young everywhere I could last year expecting improvements on 2007’s 32 HR/27 SB performance. At the very least, I hope for similar HR-SB numbers with an uptick in AVG and RBI. I got the latter two pieces of the puzzle, but 10 fewer HRs and 13 fewer SBs to go with the slight gains. At just 25, the 30-30 potential remains at the forefront for Young.
• Round 11 : Pick 9(129) - @therotofeed - Placido Polanco - This was my worst pick in terms of timing (rrrrreach), though I love Placido Polanco as a means to raise cheap R and BA. I would blame this on the queue mechanism, but that would be a copout. For the record, I refuse to admit that Placido Polanco is not the name of the umpire in Naked Gun who tries to kill the Queen.
• Round 11 : Pick 10(130) - @dowdyism - Brian Fuentes - Fuentes takes over as the closer for a team that won 100 games last season, and is set up nicely for 90 plus wins in 2009. I heard some guy on their team last season had 62 saves in the same role, so penciling in Fuentes for 40-45 should be a pretty safe bet.
• Round 11 : Pick 11(131) - @jasoncollette - Joba Chamberlain - I’m glad he was still here in the 11th as I’ve seen him taken in the 8th. Draft him for solid skills in 150 innings and you won’t be disappointed. Expect more than that and you will be.
• Round 11 : Pick 12(132) - @seniorcircuit - Yovani Gallardo - As my second pitcher taken, I look for someone with a big upside. Before his injury experts were predicting a season of 13-15 wins and upwards of 180 Ks. His injury had nothing to do with his pitching mechanics and with a healthy season in 2009, I see him putting together a 14/177/3.65/1.27.

It’s time for another installment of movers and shakers on the Mock Draft Central Average Draft Position Report.

Headed Up

• Andy Pettitte | New York Yankees | +7.7% - You knew the Pettitte re-signing would begin his slow rise in ADP. This is his second consecutive week with a 7+ percentage point rise. He’s now into the 23rd round at 276.76 from 298.00.
• Ryan Braun | Milwaukee Brewers | +7.1% - Braun is firmly entrenching himself in the first round as he goes from an ADP of 10.41 to 9.72.
• Ian Kinsler | Texas Rangers | +4.1% - There has been much debate so far about which second baseman (Utley, Pedroia or Kinsler) deserves to be the highest ranked at his position. This week it was Kinsler as he went from an ADP of 11.65 to 11.19 and was the only one of the three to rise in ADP. (for what it’s worth, I disagree and rank Kinsler third out of these guys)
• Grant Balfour | Tampa Bay Rays | +3.8% - Balfour just penned a one-year contract with the Rays and had a 1.54 ERA with 82 strikeouts in 58.1 innings of work. He’s a superb set-up man and a must own if your league uses holds. He’s up to a 290.84 ADP from 301.86.
• Matt Wieters | Baltimore Orioles | +3.2% - Wieters climbed last week from a mid-11th-round 127.36 to an early 11th round 123.45. All without seeing a Major League pitch.
• Tim Lincecum | San Francisco Giants | +3.0% - Lincecum has almost climbed into the second round as he’s sitting at 26.05 from an ADP of 26.82. Santana is still the highest ranked pitcher on the board at 18.58, but I’m not sure that I wouldn’t take Lincecum before him.

Other noteables: James Shields (+2.0%) and Brandon Lyon (+2.7%)

Headed Down

• Melvin Mora | Baltimore Orioles | -6.1% - Is it Mora’s age (36) or the Orioles addition of Wiggington that had fantasy GM’s selecting Mora later in mock drafts? His ADP dropped from a 17th round 204.14 to a 19th round 217.34.
• Matt Holliday | Oakland A’s | -6.0% - Holliday moved last week from an ADP of 13.37 to 14.23. It looks as if he’s completely out of contention for a first round selection, which is probably as it should be since he’s no longer hitting in Coors Field.
• Mike Jacobs | Kansas City Royals | -5.6% - A crowded Royals first base depth chart and his inability to het lefties migt have spawned his drop to an ADP in the 22nd round of 263.05 from the 21st round 248.37 he was at last week.
• Ubaldo Jimenez | Colorado Rockies | -4.2% - Jimenez just rose 5.6% last week after signing a new deal and now drops out of the 23rd round to 282.36 from 270.55 this week. WTF???
• Chien-Ming Wang | New York Yankees | -3.2% - He’s not a strikeout threat or a very good base runner, but Wang, if healthy, should perform better than his ADP of 215.35 (19th round) predicts. Last week he fell from 208.37 (18th round).
• John Smoltz | Boston Red Sox | -3.0 - Smoltz fell from an ADP of 260.48 to 268.64 last week. Are February mock drafters finally realizing that Smoltz is in no hurry to hit the mound in Fenway? The Red Sox are going to make 125% sure that Smoltz is healthy and only care about him helping out in the stretch run and the playoffs.

Other noteables: Ryan Howard (-5.1%), Jason Giambi (-4.4%), Mark DeRosa (-4.0%), Alex Rodriguez (-3.8%), Jorge Cantu (-3.1%) and Justin Upton (-3.0).

It’s still early, but I wanted get a current look at the first base position for every team. Designated hitters are not on this list, and players like Giambi (who hasn’t signed yet) or Billy Butler (DH on the depth chart) aren’t going to be included here until their status changes.

Here are the 2009 fantasy first base rankings.

Update [1/16/2009 10:31 PM]: Now that Michael Young has calmed down, stopped whining, and agreed to play third base, Chris Davis is firmly entrenched as the first baseman and can be added to this list. Hank Blalock has been moved down on this list accordingly.

1. Albert Pujols | St. Louis Cardinals - Dropped on draft boards last year due to injury concerns. He shouldn’t have! The numbers he put up were sick and he can do it again. As long as his elbow stays healthy. <g>
2. Ryan Howard | Philadelphia Phillies - If Howard hit north of .275 he’d be the #1 ranked player in all of fantasy baseball. But, he only hits .251 and that detracts a bit from his 48 home runs and 146 RBI. Feel good about drafting Howard’s power numbers, but get some decent average hitter to supplement later on.
3. Lance Berkman | Houston Astros - Berkman hit 88 points higher in the first half last season than he did in the second half. All his other stats followed suit. If his second half didn’t stink so badly, Berkman would have been the #2 guy here instead of Howard. Still, Berkman contributed massively in all five stat categories and there aren’t too many reasons to think he won’t do so again in 2009.
4. Mark Teixeira | New York Yankees - Power output could go up in the Big Apple. His ‘08 numbers were nothing to sneeze at. You can draft him expecting at least a repeat of last year and hope for a bit more.
5. Miguel Cabrera | Detroit Tigers - An off year in 2008 really has Cabrera low on this list. He did turn it on in the second half, so don’t fret too much over grabbing Cabrera early.
6. Adrian Gonzalez | San Diego Padres - Gonzalez finally moves up into the elite 1B area, right where his 36 home runs and 119 RBI belong.
7. Justin Morneau | Minnesota Twins - Morneau’s home run total dropped in ‘08, but he still contributed more than enough to earn runner up status in the AL MVP race. Morneau will be off the board by the second round. If he gets his power numbers back up, that’ll be a bargain.
8. Kevin Youkilis | Boston Red Sox - Youk is a .300-30-100-100 guy? He is now. And he should be for the next few years. Youk in the third round is safe. Youk in the fourth or fifth round is a steal.
9. Prince Fielder | Milwaukee Brewers - Fielder is being overvalued a bit due to his young age and high home run potential. Don’t draft him expecting 40+ dingers, but know that he could possibly get there.
10. Carlos Delgado | New York Mets - His power numbers were there for most of the year, but Delgado really increased his batting average in the second half. At almost 37, he’s aging, but he still has lots of fight in him.
11. Aubrey Huff | Baltimore Orioles - Huff returned back to his early 2000’s form with 32 home runs and 100+ RBI in ‘08. You can’t grab him too early as nobody is sure if this was a return to normal, or if 30 home runs is an outlier. But once the big boys are off of the board at first base, Huff is the next logical choice.
12. Jorge Cantu | Florida Marlins - With Jacobs gone, Cantu will slide to the first base side for 2009. He approached 30 home runs and 100 RBI in 2008 and could do the same in ‘09. Don’t forget that 2009 will be Cantu’s 27-year-old year. Could a break out be imminent?
13. Chris Davis | Texas Rangers - In 295 at-bats last season Davis belted 17 home runs and drove in 55; two reasons for great optimism for 2009. However, he had a strike out rate of 29.8% and a hit rate of 35.3% which might foretell bumpy roads ahead. He’s being hyped up on a grand scale this off-season so you’re going to have to overpay to get him.
14. Derrek Lee | Chicago Cubs - Lee isn’t getting back to his 2005 form ever again. Expect something more like 20-25 homers, 80-90 RBI, and a few stolen bases to keep him in the top 15.
15. Carlos Pena | Tampa Bay Rays - Pena’s power potential is what keeps him ranked this high amongst first basemen. Because it sure isn’t his .247 batting average. You’d better have some other players to boost your batting average if you grab Pena.
16. Joey Votto | Cincinnati Reds - Votto should back up a fantastic rookie season with an even better ‘09 campaign. Votto could even bat north of .300 and blast 30 homers. If that happens he’s a huge steal here.
17. Mike Jacobs | Kansas City Royals - See Carlos Pena. Jacobs is devalued even more due to the fact that there are so many first basemen in Kansas City. A slump for too long won’t be allowed. Nor will his inability to hit lefties.
18. Adam LaRoche | Pittsburgh Pirates - Missed out on 100 at-bats which may have kept him from the 30 home run mark. He has fewer base runners to drive in than most of the big guys at 1B and he can’t hit lefties. So, this is about as high as LaRoche goes among first basemen.
19. James Loney | Los Angeles Dodgers - Loney’s power isn’t coming along like many expected but his batting average is keeping him somewhat valuable in fantasy circles. He’s still only going to be 25 this season so there’s still time to grow. 10 - 15 home runs and a batting average approaching .300 is what you should expect.
20. Ryan Garko | Cleveland Indians - Garko’s 14 home runs and 90 RBI come in just 495 at-bats. Until Garko approaches the 600 at-bat mark he’s never going to progress further as a fantasy option.
21. Casey Kotchman | Atlanta Braves - Kotchman is only going to hit you 10 - 15 home runs and approach the .280 mark in batting average. There’s not much upside here.
22. Lyle Overbay | Toronto Blue Jays - Overbay’s days of 20+ dingers and a .300 batting average are over. He’s a serviceable .270 hitter with home runs totals in the low teens, at best.
23. Paul Konerko | Chicago White Sox - Konerko’s power numbers and batting average are declining rapidly. 2009 might be his final chance to get back on track towards fantasy relevance, but don’t pay too much to find out if he does.
24. Todd Helton | Colorado Rockies - Helton’s age caught up with him as he spent a lot of time on the disabled list for the first time in his career. If healthy, he’s more like a .280 hitter with 15 or so home runs. If…
25. Daric Barton | Oakland Athletics - Barton has never shown the power potential, either in the minors or at the MLB level, that people seem to expect from him. Don’t draft him thinking it’s going to somehow materialize now.
26. Chad Tracy | Arizona Diamondbacks - Tracy might not be the best option at first base for the Diamondbacks, but that’s what they’re rolling with in ‘09. You shouldn’t.
27. Kendry Morales | Los Angeles Angels - With Teixeira out Morales is going to get his chance at first base. There is some upside here as he’s shown power in the minors, but he shouldn’t be anywhere close to the middle or top of your draft list.
28. Nick Johnson | Washington Nationals - Johnson, when healthy, is a viable candidate as a #2 first baseman. But, he’s not healthy, and hasn’t been for a while.
29. Hank Blalock | Texas Rangers - If only he could stay healthy and reach 400+ at-bats, something he hasn’t done since 2006. Don’t spend too much speculating though.
30. Bryan Lahair | Seattle Mariners - Lahair isn’t really a long term option for the Mariners and he shouldn’t any kind of an option for your fantasy team.
31. Travis Ishikawa | San Francisco Giants - The Giants are looking at the free agent market for anyone that they can bring in so Ishikawa won’t have to be kept on the opening day roster. Enough said.

Here are the fantasy baseball rankings for the top ten third basemen for the 2008 season. I will also list the predictions from the pre-season at the bottom of this post for comparison.

1. David Wright, New York Mets - Wright is just a man among boys at the third base position. He does it all! 115 runs | 33 HR | 124 RBI | 15 SB | .302
2. Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees - It’s just nasty to consider 2008 an off year fantasy speaking for A-Rod. He’s still got first round talent. 104 runs | 35 HR | 103 RBI | 18 SB | .302
3. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers - The elite fantasy third basemen used to only be A-Rod and Wright. Now, you can add Braun’s name to that list, if only he were going to play 3B anymore. 92 runs | 37 HR | 106 RBI | 14 SB | .285
4. Aubrey Huff, Baltimore Orioles - Huff might be too old to keep these numbers up going forward. But, 2008 was one heck of a ride. 96 runs | 32 HR | 108 RBI | 4 SB | .304
5. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers - Fourteen games was just enough to qualify at third base. His numbers are so good he’d be on any top ten list, no matter what position. 85 runs | 37 HR | 127 RBI | 1 SB | .292
6. Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox - Youkilis really boosted his power output in 2008. “The Greek God of Walks” is now the total package. 91 runs | 29 HR | 115 RBI | 3 SB | .312
7. Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves - His flirtation with .400 didn’t last as long as he’d hoped. But, he proved, once again, that he’s one of the best pure hitters in the game. 82 runs | 22 HR | 75 RBI | 4 SB | .364
8. Aramis Ramirez, Chicago Cubs - Ramirez might not be hitting as many home runs as in years past, but his run production is still among the best. 97 runs | 27 HR | 111 RBI | 2 SB | .289
9. Jorge Cantu, Florida Marlins - Cantu had a breakout year in 2008, and could get better. 92 runs | 29 HR | 95 RBI | 6 SB | .277
10. Melvin Mora, Baltimore Orioles - Had a fantastic second half, but late season injuries and his age could hurt his draft status next season. 77 runs | 23 HR | 104 RBI | 3 SB | .285

Below is the pre-season ranking list, for comparison.

2008 American League Fantasy Baseball Third Base Rankings

1. Alex Rodriguez | New York Yankees
2. Miguel Cabrera | Detroit Tigers
3. Mike Lowell | Boston Red Sox
4. Chone Figgins | Los Angeles Angels
5. Adrian Beltre | Seattle Mariners
6. Troy Glaus | Toronto Blue Jays
7. Josh Fields | Chicago White Sox
8. Alex Gordon | Kansas City Royals
9. Hank Blalock | Texas Rangers
10. Evan Longoria | Tampa Bay Rays
11. Eric Chavez | Oakland Athletics
12. Melvin Mora | Baltimore Orioles
13. Casey Blake | Cleveland Indians
14. Mike Lamb | Minnesota Twins
15. Akinora Iwamura | Tampa Bay Rays
16. Brandon Inge | Detroit Tigers
17. Joe Crede | Chicago White Sox
18. Brandon Wood | Los Angeles Angels

2008 National League Fantasy Baseball Third Base Rankings

1. David Wright | New York Mets
2. Ryan Braun | Milwaukee Brewers
3. Aramis Ramirez | Chicago Cubs
4. Garrett Atkins | Colorado Rockies
5. Chipper Jones | Atlanta Braves
6. Ryan Zimmerman | Washington Nationals
7. Kevin Kouzmanoff | San Diego Padres
8. Edwin Encarnacion | Cincinnati Reds
9. Troy Glaus | St. Louis Cardinals
10. Ty Wigginton | Houston Astros
11. Mark Reynolds | Arizona Diamondbacks
12. Pedro Feliz | Philadelphia Phillies
13. Andy LaRoche | Los Angeles Dodgers
14. Jose Bautista | Pittsburgh Pirates
15. Jose Castillo | Florida Marlins