Crooked Pitch

The age old argument of which players belong in the first round of a fantasy baseball draft is as vicious and friendly as a Lucy versus Ricky fight. All of us fantasy GM’s love each other, but we can never agree, 100%, on anything.

For upcoming 2009 fantasy drafts we’ll continue to argue the merits of the 12 players selected in round one all the way up until Opening Day. In an effort to truly understand the first round (something that we’ll never accomplish) we need to break it down.

My first thought was that the first round needs to be broken down into three tiers. Each of these tiers will contain players who are interchangeable within the tier, but don’t really fit into the other tiers. Upon further review, I feel four tiers are needed for the 2009 first round.

Tier One: Hanley Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, and David Wright.

These four players are the sole members of tier one because they are the only four players who have been selected with the first pick in the draft over at Mock Draft Central over the past two weeks. As you’ll see by their average draft positions and their highest and lowest spot taken statistics, it’s often agreed that these four belong at the top of the draft. Not many agree on where they should go. It depends a lot on personal preference (either for a player or for a particular stat category) and a little on risk.

• Ramirez - 1.35 ADP | Earliest - 1st | Latest - 4th
• Rodriguez - 2.11 ADP | Earliest - 1st | Latest - 5th
• Pujols - 3.01 ADP | Earliest - 1st | Latest - 7th
• Wright - 4.42 ADP | Earliest - 1st | Latest - 7th

Tier Two: Jose Reyes

I had originally thought that Reyes would be the fifth member of tier one. But, since he has not been taken first, and he’s the only remaining player who is always taken in the first round, I felt that he warranted a tier of his own.

• Reyes - 4.62 ADP | Earliest - 2nd | Latest - 10th

Tier Three: Grady Sizemore, Miguel Cabrera and Jimmy Rollins

These three are generally the next three that are considered to go off of the board. You could almost argue that Sizemore belongs in the tier with Reyes, but he’s been taken outside of the first round periodically, so he’s banished to tier three. Rollins almost was knocked down to tier four as he’s been selected pretty late at times. But, he just snuck into tier three because his ADP is under 10. That’s the cutoff from tier three to tier four; you must have an ADP under 10 to be in tier three.

• Sizemore - 6.63 ADP | Earliest - 3rd | Latest - 14th
• Cabrera - 7.22 ADP | Earliest - 4th | Latest - 16th
• Rollins - 9.46 ADP | Earliest - 6th | Latest - 18th

Tier Four: Josh Hamilton, Ryan Braun, Ian Kinsler and Ryan Howard

Here are the four players who make up the end of round one. The variances among them are huge. Sometimes you see them taken in the third slot, sometimes as late as 20th. These four are also the players that are most argued out of the first round and replaced by players like Chase Utley, Johan Santana, Mark Teixeira and Matt Hoilliday. What seperates the members of tier four from those just outside of it is their ADP. Each member of tier four has an ADP under twelve. They are the only remaining players who have that destinction.

• Hamilton - 10.51 ADP | Earliest - 4th | Latest - 19th
• Braun - 10.76 ADP | Earliest - 4th | Latest - 19th
• Kinsler - 11.10 ADP | Earliest - 6th | Latest - 20th
• Howard - 11.52 ADP | Earliest - 3rd | Latest - 20th

I had a brilliant idea the other day, which happens quite a bit. But unlike most of my mad scientist theories brilliant ideas, this one actually sounded good after I thought about it for a while; so I set it into motion.

With the popularity of mock drafts growing and growing, I wanted to put one together. My reasons for this were not only  to practice for a real draft, but to get the participants thoughts and strategies as they went. My theory was that if each fantasy GM wrote down what they were thinking and what kind of strategy they were employing after each pick, so many people could benefit from that knowledge; for a number of reasons.

1. You can see how a draft unfolds; which players go where.
2. You can see if more fantasy GM’s are grabbing power or speed and in what rounds.
3. You can see how many of these guys use draft strategies, and when they go about putting them into play.
4. Right or wrong, you get to hear what people think about these players and what drives a fantasy GM to draft them

There are actually tons of reasons why this is a great learning tool. So, to set this up I grabbed a bunch of tweeps (friends on twitter) and asked them to participate. It was easy to find 11 other guys and the cool thing about the mix of mock draft participants is that they come from all walks of fantasy baseball life. We’ve got experts mixed in with advanced fantasy GM’s. So, you’ll get to hear ideas from a myriad of different types of fantasy baseballers.

Without further ado, let’s talk about the first round that was just completed. The team name is also the twitter moniker for each participant. If you’re on twitter, go say hello. The commentary after the pick is from each manager. They were asked to talk about the pick and any particular strategy; if using one.

• Round 1 : Pick 1 - @crookedpitch - Hanley Ramirez - What? I have to wait 23 more picks until I get to go again??? Ouch, I had better make this pick count. Ramirez is a 30/30 stud who will also score 100+ runs easy. I can’t think of a better way to start my team off then by grabbing this power/speed combo guy who will also hit .300. At this point I’m going to wait and see how the rest of the first round and the second round play out before etching a draft strategy in stone.
• Round 1 : Pick 2 - @Angels2717 - Albert Pujols - I decided to stick with the consistency of Albert. The only off year was the one where he was injured.  His all around power is appealing to me and his ability to get on base a lot and to do just about everything.  This pick was hard based on the fact that there was a lot to choose from after Hanley: A-Rod, Reyes, Wright.  After a little time of thinking, I decided I liked Pujols’ consistency more than anything the other possibilities had.
• Round 1 : Pick 3 - @TheRoundtable - Alex Rodriguez - Rodriguez is automatic. Pencil him in for .300/40/110 without breaking a sweat. He’ll even steal 15-20. He’s the marquee player in a new ballpark, and has new found protection in Mark Teixeira.
• Round 1 : Pick 4 - @fakebaseball - Jose Reyes - I was pleased to see that Jose Reyes was available with the 4th pick. He’s proven to be a relatively reliable player at a premium position, and assuming continued good health, he’ll give me a nice leg up on the oft-frustrating stolen base category. I’ll be happy if I can get .290/15 HR/55 SB from my shortstop, because there should be plenty of power bats available in the following rounds. I know there’s been some blogosphere hand-wringing over the Mets’ new stadium, but even if the portents of team-power doom are true, it shouldn’t have a significant impact on Reyes’ value.
• Round 1 : Pick 5 - @jefeboy - David Wright - Couldn’t see taking an OF this early, and Wright seems like a good solid choice who will contribute in every category. One site lists his ADP as 4.8, so getting him 5th makes me happy.
• Round 1 : Pick 6 - @xxldaddyo - Grady Sizemore - I have to go with Grady Sizemore. He became a 30-30 guy last year and I think has the potential to be a 40-40 guy. Those guys don’t grow on trees (especially if they arent on steroids). Entering prime Age 26 season.
• Round 1 : Pick 7 - @tommystv - Chase Utley - I’m a sucker for building a solid Middle Infield early. 1st Base and OF I tend to pass on until the right player slips because those positions are so much deeper. If I would have gone 1B it would have been Teixera and OF would have been Ryan Braun, I really think both of those guys are gonna have nice seasons. The biggest money league I play in allows position eligibility if the player plays one game at the position…yes, Albert Puljos was 2nd base eligible last year. If that were the case here I would have given serious consideration to Miguel Cabrera for possible dual 1st/3rd and Ryan Braun for possibly getting an odd game at 3rd.
• Round 1 : Pick 8 - @sporer - Miguel Cabrera - Considering I nearly ranked Miguel Cabrera ahead of Albert Pujols in my 1B rankings, he was a no-brainer for me when he fell to 8th.  I had him 7th in my top 10 immediately after the season and his placement drew the most comments, but with mock season in full gear he has been a consistent first rounder.  He showed so much in the second half of last season and the 40-home run season that has eluded him thus far may very well be on the horizon.  He is a four category stud that belongs in the top half of the first round.  As such, I was happy to steal him at eight.
• Round 1 : Pick 9 - @therotofeed - Ryan Howard - With Miguel Cabrera off the board, I had to go with Ryan Howard at the ninth position.  Not that I’m hanging my head too low - I never really feel bad about rostering a guy who consistently cranks out 45+ HR seasons, and I gotta think that this year he hits at least 15-20 BA pts higher than last season. But I still wanted Miggy.
• Round 1 : Pick 10 - @dowdyism - Josh Hamilton - I normally look for a strong infield pick in the first round, but since most of my targets are gone at the 10 spot, I grabbed Josh Hamilton.  I’m missing out on some steals by not going with Matt Holliday or Ryan Braun, but as loaded as the top of the Texas order is, I am banking on big numbers across the board with Hamilton.
• Round 1 : Pick 11 - @jasoncollette - Ryan Braun - Pretty happy to have Braun to me at the 11th pick. I was not expecting it but you have to take a 5 category player in the first round.
• Round 1 : Pick 12 - @seniorcircuit - Mark Teixeira -Got a reliable, power first baseman who will have plenty of RBI chances in the Yankees batting order. He seems happy (and his wife too) to be playing for a contending team in a brand new ballpark. I see him putting up 100/30+/110/.300 season.

With that, round one is complete. Let’s hear your commens and/or questions.

There are  a few position battles going on that will effect these rankings up until the point they are decided. There’s Punto and Harris battling it out in Minnesota. The Angels are looking at both Aybar and Izturis and Cincinnati is dealing with Gonzalez versus Keppinger. Until winners are announced in those races, they’re not making the list.

Here are the 2009 fantasy short stop rankings:

1. Hanley Ramirez | Florida Marlins - This 30/30 guy is a stud and will be off the draft board before your pick; unless you’re picking first. He just turned 25 and won’t be dropping off any time soon.
2. Jose Reyes | New York Mets - Reyes walked less last year but saw his on-base percentage and batting average rise. He’s still very young (25) and could still improve while expecting little to no drop-off.
3. Jimmy Rollins | Philadelphia Phillies - Injuries zapped Rollins power numbers after a huge MVP season in ‘07. Even though he missed 160 or so at-bats he still stole more bases, so his speed is still there. Expect the power to return in ‘09 and get excited that he improved his walk rate and lowered his strikeout rate last season.
4. Stephen Drew | Arizona Diamondbacks - Drew finished fourth among short stops in home runs and led them in doubles last season. That leads me to believe that  there may be more power to come. This guy is closer to Rollins than most people think. If he improves again in ‘09, he’ll enter elite status among short stops.
5. Alexei Ramirez | Chicago White Sox - Ramirez finished second in AL Rookie of the Year voting and showed great pop with his 21 home runs in only 480 at-bats. He’s a sleeper to become a 20/20 guy this year.
6. Jhonny Peralta | Cleveland Indians - Peralta led short stops in RBI, finished second in doubles and third in home runs in ‘08. The only knock against him is he strikes out way, way too much. He did lower his strikeout rate in ‘08, so if that trend continues, you can expect a huge ‘09.
7. Rafael Furcal | Los Angeles Dodgers - Furcal torched pitchers and basepaths in 32 games prior to an almost season ending injury. If he can stay healthy to the tune of 600 at-bats in ‘09 at his ‘08 pace he’s a potent 20/30 guy. But the downside is huge too.
8. Derek Jeter | New York Yankees - It’s odd to see Jeter this low on the list, but father time seems to be taking his toll. That being said, .300 with 11 homers and 11 stolen bases is nothig to shake a stick at.
9. J.J. Hardy | Milwaukee Brewers - As streky of a hitter as Hardy is, he still hit .283 with 24 home runs in ‘08. A source of home runs at short stop is a boon for any league. I wouldn’t expect any drop-off and I wouldn’t argue with a further break-out prediction. He is turning 27-years-old this season…
10. Michael Young | Texas Rangers - Young is crying for a trade due to the Rangers asking him to move to third base. His ranking will change if that happens, but right now draft him here and expect .280+ with double digit steals and home runs and lots of runs scored.
11. Troy Tulowitzki | Colorado Rockies - Tulowitzki tore it up in September hitting .330 with three home runs, which excites many for a rebound in ‘09. I don’t think he’ll return to ‘07 power totals, but I would expect home runs in the high teens and an increased batting average due to his drop in strikeout rate.
12. Miguel Tejada | Houston Astros - At 35-years-old Tejada isn’t going to be breaking out anymore. He, most likely, isn’t going ot be surging either. Expect .280-.290 with 13-17 home runs and a good amount of runs scored.
13. Mike Aviles | Kansas City Royals - His .325 batting average in 419 at-bats was superb, but it came with a 35.9% hit rate. It’s tough for me to think he’ll repeat that. However, he should be right around .300 and will hit double digits in home runs and stolen bases.
14. Yunel Escobar | Atlanta Braves - Improved strikeout and walk rate and also doubled his home run total in ‘08. I can see better things to come in ‘09. Also… he’s turning 27-years-old this year too.
15. Edgar Renteria | San Francisco - At 34-years-old, Renteria is definitely on the downward portion of his career. But, he’ll bat .270-.280 with 10 homers and 10 stolen bases. That’s good stuff towards the end of your draft.
16. Ryan Theriot | Chicago Cubs - His 20+ stolen bases are real, but his .307 batting average was due to a very high 34.0% hit rate. When his hit rate is normal he’s more like a .270 hitter. Draft accordingly.
17. Jason Bartlett | Tampa Bay Rays - We’re nearing the finish line for mixed-league relevancy with Bartlett. At the end of your draft, Bartlett can be a good source of 20 stolen bases and won’t hurt you too much with a .275 batting average.
18. Cristian Guzman | Washington Nationals - Guzman gives you some nice help in batting average and you can expect him to approach .300 again in ‘09. His seven to ten home runs are just gravy.
19. Jed Lowrie | Boston Red Sox - Lowrie strikes out way too much to have a batting average anywhere close to respectability. His power potential isn’t big so that can’t help and he’s no base stealer. So, look elsewhere for late round help.
    
20. Cesar Izturis | Baltimore Orioles - Those 24 stolen bases from ‘08 look great, but remember that this guy will hit in the .250’s and won’t produce much power at all.
21. Khalil Greene | St. Louis Cardinals - Greene isn’t a .213 hitter with only ten home runs. But he is a .245 hitter with 13-18 home runs and very few stolen bases.
22. Yuniesky Betancourt | Seattle Mariners - Look to Betancourt for AL-only help. His .280 batting average is the only help you get from him as he doesn’t hit home runs or steal bases.
23. Jack Wilson | Pittsburgh Pirates - Wilson’s a .270 hitter with not much else going on. He can help in a pinch in NL-only leagues.
24. Bobby Crosby | Oakland Athletics - Is Crosby’s 10-12 home run potential worth his .240 batting average? Only if you like 8th place in your fantasy league.
25. Luis Rodriguez | San Diego Padres - Rodriguez makes this list because I fear the wrath of Padres fans if I don’t include one of their oen, not because he has any fantasy value whatsoever.
26. John McDonald | Toronto Blue Jays - Ouch! If you’re drafting this guy, you must be related to him.
27. Adam Everett | Detroit Tigers - The Tigers signed Everett for his glove. In fact, they’d prefer he doesn’t ever grab a bat at all. Unfortunately, he’s gonna come to the plate in most games, but he shouldn’t on your fantasy teams.

Here are the fantasy baseball rankings for the top ten shortstops for the 2008 season. I will also list the predictions from the pre-season at the bottom of this post for comparison.

1. Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins - With Ramirez you get the best power/speed combo in the game today. 125 runs | 33 HR | 67 RBI | 35 SB | .301
2. Jose Reyes, New York Mets - With Reyes you get fewer home runs, but more stolen bases than Ramirez. You could really argue either player for the top spot here. 113 runs | 16 HR | 68 RBI | 56 SB | .297
3. Jhonny Peralta, Cleveland Indians - Simple math here… There were six shortstops with 20 or more stolen bases and only five with 20 or more home runs. That being said, I gave Peralta the nod over Rollins for the #3 spot. 104 runs | 23 HR | 89 RBI | 3 SB | .276
4. Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia Phillies - With numbers like these, is it really fair to consider 2008 a down year for Rollins? 76 runs | 11 HR | 59 RBI | 47 SB | .277
5. Michael Young, Texas Rangers - Consistency and well rounded statistics keep Young high on this list, but not in the elite crew. 102 runs | 12 HR | 82 RBI | 10 SB | .284
6. J.J. Hardy, Milwaukee Brewers -Hardy’s power numbers place him squarely in the thick of things for shortstops not named Ramirez, Reyes, Rollins or Peralta. 78 runs | 24 HR | 74 RBI | 2 SB | .283
7. Stephen Drew, Arizona Diamondbacks -Drew showed why he was worthy of his first round selection in 2004. 91 runs | 21 HR | 67 RBI | 3 SB | .291
8. Alexei Ramirez, Chicago White Sox -Multi-position goodness plus his well rounded stats make him valuable to any fantasy baseball team. 65 runs | 21 HR | 77 RBI | 13 SB | .290
9. Derek Jeter, New York Yankees -Jeter just isn’t the fantasy force he used to be. But the Yanks couldn’t live without him. 88 runs | 11 HR | 69 RBI | 11 SB | .300
10. Miguel Tejada, Houston Astros -Tejada just edges out Orlando Cabrera for the 10th spot due to his power numbers. 92 runs | 13 HR | 66 RBI | 7 SB | .283

Below find my pre-season rankings of the shortstop position.

2008 American League Fantasy Baseball Shortstop Rankings

1. Derek Jeter | New York Yankees
2. Carlos Guillen* | Detroit Tigers
3. Edgar Renteria | Detroit Tigers
4. Michael Young | Texas Rangers
5. Orlando Cabrera | Chicago White Sox
6. Julio Lugo | Boston Red Sox
7. Jhonny Peralta | Cleveland Indians
8. Jason Bartlett | Tampa Bay Rays
9. Yuniesky Betancourt | Seattle Mariners
10. Tony Pena | Kansas City Royals
11. Erick Aybar | Los Angeles Angels
12. Bobby Crosby | Oakland Athletics
13. David Eckstein | Toronto Blue Jays
14. Adam Everett | Minnesota Twins
15. Juan Uribe | Chicago White Sox
16. Nick Punto | Minnesota Twins
17. John McDonald | Toronto Blue Jays
18. Brandon Wood | Los Angeles Angels

* - Carlos Guillen will be playing first base for the Tigers in 2008, but will have shortstop eligibilty, in most leagues. He is a more valuable shortstop than a first baseman, and should be used as such, as long as he is eligible.

2008 National League Fantasy Baseball Shortstop Rankings

1. Hanley Ramirez | Florida Marlins
2. Jose Reyes | New York Mets
3. Jimmy Rollins | Philadelphia Phillies
4. Troy Tulowitzki | Colorado Rockies
5. Miguel Tejada | Houston Astros
6. J.J. Hardy | Milwaukee Brewers
7. Rafael Furcal | Los Angeles Dodgers
8. Khalil Greene | San Diego Padres
9. Stephen Drew | Arizona Diamondbacks
10. Ryan Theriot | Chicago Cubs
11. Yunel Escobar | Atlanta Braves
12. Jack Wilson | Pittsburgh Pirates
13. Alex Gonzalez | Cincinnati Reds
14. Cristian Guzman | Washington Nationals
15. Omar Vizquel | San Francisco Giants
16. Cesar Izturis | St. Louis Cardinals
17. Brendan Ryan | St. Louis Cardinals
18. Alfredo Amezaga | Florida Marlins
19. Jeff Keppinger | Cincinnati Reds
20. Jamey Carroll | Colorado Rockies