Crooked Pitch

I wrote an article over at FanHouse this morning about the Cubs decision to announce Carlos Marmol as their closer heading into the 2010 season. I may have been a little hard on Marmol with this statement.

While this is good news for Marmol, it’s more a result of Gregg stinking in the closer’s role, more so then Marmol beating him out for the job.

Since taking over the closer role Marmol has a 2.93 ERA and an 1.80 strikeout to walk ratio (18:10 K:BB). Digging a little deeper I found that Marmol has a 1.93 ERA in save situations and a 5.74 ERA in non-save situations. It looks as if the really poor pitching came when Marmol was in a set-up role, not as a closer.

Could Marmol be a completely different pitcher as a closer versus a set-up guy?

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Today’s pitch count is 10.

1. For the second straight time Rich Harden walked more hitters then he struck out Wednesday night. In those two games he’s given up nine earned runs in 10.1 innings. In related news, Harden hasn’t won a game sine May 12th.
2. David Ortiz hit another home run on Wednesday night. He has three over his last seven games and is batting .363 over that same time period.
3. The Phillies bullpen screwed Joe Blanton big time on Wednesday.  Blanton struck out ten and walked two over seven innings and only gave up two earned runs. On the other hand J.C. Romero and Chan Ho Park combined to give up five earned runs in the final two innings. Blanton has pitched well as of late. Over his last seven starts he’s 3-1 with a 3.42 ERA and 44 strikeouts with ten walks.

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We’re through round nine now. Take a look back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2,  round 3, round 4, round 5, round 6, round 7, and round 8.

• Round 9 : Pick 1(97) - @crookedpitch - Ryan Zimmerman - This is a risky pick here. He missed two months with a shoulder injury last season, and I’m looking for him to prove that he’s healed. His five home runs in the final month of the season and his .306 second half batting average tell me he’s ready to crush it in ‘09. At 24-years-old Zimmerman could re-emerge as a 20+ homer guy with a .300 average.
• Round 9 : Pick 2(98) - @Angels2717 - Michael Young - I like Young a lot and as the rounds go by, certain positions’ value considerably decreases. One of them is the shortstop position.  If you havent taken one of the top guy: Reyes, Rollins, etc. you got to take someone soon before your left with an Erick Aybar kind of player. He’ll be fine for this round.
• Round 9 : Pick 3(99) - @TheRoundtable - Ryan Doumit - Complete upside pick. Doumit was one of the few bright spots by the end of the season for the Pirates. For a team that was miserable, they produced solid fantasy numbers with Nady, Bay, McLouth, and Doumit. Doumit’s numbers didn’t drop off toward the second half. Normally, I don’t draft catchers this early, but with needing two, I felt that this was the right spot to grab one.
• Round 9 : Pick 4(100) - @fakebaseball - Francisco Rodriguez - Like many others who’ve played the game for a long time, I’m a believer in drafting closers later in the draft (and even punting closers altogether in head-to-head leagues). That said, when Rodriguez was still available in the 9th round, by this point the potential reward made this a pick worth making. Taking him in rounds 5 or 6 (where he’s typically been going) means you’re overpaying for ‘08. By round 9, he could return good value even with a less impressive ‘09. Yes, his peripherals aren’t what they once were, and yes, he’ll have Putz possibly grabbing some saves this year. But he’s also now pitching in the NL–no DH–and he’ll also be facing Florida, Atlanta, and Washington regularly.
• Round 9 : Pick 5(101) - @jefeboy - Raul Ibanez - A steady performer in a new ballpark that’s good for hitters. I’ll take that, in the 9th round. Supports my decision to wait on OF’s. I need to fill out the roster with 20HR guys like him.
• Round 9 : Pick 6(102) - @xxldaddyo - Jon Lester - The Second Half of 2008 says it all for Lester: 2.92 ERA, 1.19 WHIP 3.1:1 K:BB ratio. Along the way he became a great ground ball pitcher, and even threw a no-hitter!
• Round 9 : Pick 7(103) - @tommystv - Carlos Zambrano - Dominate at times, crazy at times. I’ll take the risk, the Cubbies have a good Offense so wins will come even when he doesn’t dominate. Note: Pitcher run continuing.
• Round 9 : Pick 8(104) - @sporer - Mariano Rivera - Wow, three pitchers in a row for me… that’s simply unheard of, but all three rate among my favorites to roster. Everyone keeps waiting for the other shoe to drop with Rivera, but he continually defies the odds. If he does just fall off a cliff performance-wise, it’ll be detrimental to all his fantasy owners, but there is nothing within his skills to suggest that’s on the horizon. He could feasibly have another 40-45 save season this year.
• Round 9 : Pick 9(105) - @therotofeed - Brad Lidge - He was the game’s most dominant closer last year, and he’s probably the only one with truly elite k/9 left on the board. I’d rather be taking batters at this point, but I can’t pass on best-in-categories. Let’s hope the Phillies stay strong and the Curse of Pujols stays away for another year.
• Round 9 : Pick 10(106) - @dowdyism - Jayson Werth - I don’t know what this “Twitter” thing is or how some of these “people” say that Jason Werth was “their pick”. I don’t know what they are talking about, but I promise I’m going to figure this internet thing out one day. In all seriousness, Werth is becoming a popular choice in mock drafts. He broke through last season with 24 HR and 20 SB in 482 PA, and a new contract should break his platoon status, thus the rise in ADP. I think he is good for another 20/20 season as a floor, and slots in nicely as my fourth outfielder.
• Round 9 : Pick 11(107) - @jasoncollette - Jose Valverde - Valverde has incredible skills as a closer and could be a top three guy if he cuts down on his homers. He knocked 6% of his FB rate last year but his HR/FB spike negated those gains.
• Round 9 : Pick 12(108) - @seniorcircuit - Brad Hawpe - I predict Hawpe to hopefully stay healthy and return more to his 2007 numbers. And if you draft him pray that he is not traded from Colorado. The lineup he is in is weaker with the loss of Holliday but Hawpe can rebound to put up a season of 80/27/95/.290 in 2009.

Here are the fantasy baseball rankings for the top ten closers for the 2008 season. I will also list the predictions from the pre-season at the bottom of this post for comparison.

1. Francisco Rodriguez, Los Angeles Angels - Set a Major league record with 62 saves, but saw his strikeouts drop by 15%, his WHIP go up and his batting average against go up. Fantasy owners couldn’t have cared less. 2 Wins | 62 Saves | 77 K’s | 2.24 ERA | 1.29 WHIP
2. Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals - A Kansas City closer making this list??? Who would have thunk it??? Soria was dominant from day one. You could even argue that Soria was more dominant than Rodriguez. 2 Wins | 42 Saves | 66 K’s | 1.60 ERA | 0.86 WHIP
3. Brad Lidge, Philadelphia Phillies - Lidge has re-emerged as a top notch closer. 2 Wins | 41 Saves | 92 K’s | 1.95 ERA | 1.23 WHIP
4. Joe Nathan, Minnesota Twins - With the departure of Johan Santana many thought that Nathan’s save total would drop. It didn’t. 1 Win | 39 Saves | 74 K’s | 1.33 ERA | 0.90 WHIP
5. Mariano “Not Juan” Rivera, New York Yankees - Rivera isn’t the elite closer he used to be, but he’s still extremely good. Those six wins are nice too. Especially since he only blew one save. 6 Wins | 39 Saves | 77 K’s | 1.40 ERA | 0.67 WHIP
6. Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox - Papelbon brought his save total up and really boosted his strikeout to walk ratio (5.60 in 2007 to 9.625 (77:8) in 2008). But his ERA also went up as did his number of blown saves. 5 Wins | 41 Saves | 77 K’s | 2.34 ERA | 0.95 WHIP
7. Jose Valverde, Houston Astros - Valverde ranks second on the saves list, but his ERA hurt his fantasy value some. he also had seven blown saves. 6 Wins | 44 Saves | 83 K’s | 3.37 ERA | 1.83 WHIP
8. Kerry Wood, Chicago Cubs - The smooth transition to the closer role was exactly what the Cubs needed. Now for Wood to become an elite closer his ERA will need to come down a bit. 5 Wins | 34 Saves | 84 K’s | 3.26 ERA | 1.09 WHIP
9. Francisco Cordero, Cincinnati Reds - Cordero has the the second highest WHIP of anyone on this list and his ERA isn’t one of an elite closer. But, he’s getting it done most of the time, and that was good enough for #9 here. 5 Wins | 34 Saves | 78 K’s | 3.33 ERA | 1.41 WHIP
10. B.J. Ryan, Toronto Blue Jays - He’s not nearly the pitcher he was before Tommy John surgery, but he’s no slouch either. 2 Wins | 32 Saves | 58 K’s | 2.95 ERA | 1.28 WHIP

2008 American League Fantasy Baseball Closer Rankings (Pre-Season)

1. Jonathan Papelbon | Boston Red Sox
2. Joe Nathan | Minnesota Twins
3. J.J. Putz | Seattle Mariners
4. Francisco Rodriguez | Los Angeles Angels
5. Bobby Jenks | Chicago White Sox
6. Mariano Rivera | New York Yankees
7. Huston Street | Oakland Athletics
8. Joakim Soria | Kansas City Royals
9. Todd Jones | Detroit Tigers
10. Troy Percival | Tampa Bay Rays
11. Joe Borowski | Cleveland Indians
12. C.J. Wilson | Texas Rangers
13. Jeremy Accardo | Toronto Blue Jays
14. Jamie Walker | Baltimore Orioles

2008 National League Fantasy Baseball Closer Rankings (Pre-Season)

1. Takashi Saito | Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Jose Valverde | Houston Astros
3. Francisco Cordero | Cincinnati Reds
4. Billy Wagner | New York Mets
5. Trevor Hoffman | San Diego Padres
6. Chad Cordero | Washington Nationals
7. Manuel Corpas | Colorado Rockies
8. Jason Isringhausen | St. Louis Cardinals
9. Brad Lidge | Philadelphia Phillies
10. Rafael Soriano | Atlanta Braves
11. Brandon Lyon | Arizona Diamonbacks
12. Kevin Gregg | Florida Marlins
13. Kerry Wood | Chicago Cubs
14. Eric Gagne | Milwaukee Brewers
15. Brian Wilson | San Francisco Giants
16. Matt Capps | Pittsburgh Pirates