Crooked Pitch

We’re starting to get into the thick of things when it comes to differing draft strategies and player evaluations. These next five to seven rounds are very fun to watch. Take a look back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2,  round 3, round 4, round 5, and round 6.

• Round 7 : Pick 1(73) - @crookedpitch - Jermaine Dye - Yes, I know that Dye is 35-years-old. yes, I know that he’s likely to regress a small amount in ‘09. That being said, he’s still gonna be close to 30 home runs and havd 90+ RBI. That’s not bad in the 7th round; especially with a decent batting average and 90+ runs scored.
• Round 7 : Pick 2(74) - @Angels2717 - Adam Dunn - This is somewhat a risky pick because of his average.  It is god awful. But with some very good average guys already, I think I can take that risk to get his power. He should hit 40+ homers which will be a nice addition in this round.
• Round 7 : Pick 3(75) - @TheRoundtable - Jhonny Peralta - Want to talk about a guy that doesn’t get the respect of the other shortstops, it’s Peralta. He’s hit 20+ home runs in three of the last four years, and his average has risen each of the last three. He scored 100 runs last season, and frankly I think he has much more upside than Jeter, Young, or Tulo. You can argue I may have taken him a little high, but I think this was the right spot to make sure I add another 20+ home run guy to my lineup at a key position.
• Round 7 : Pick 4(76) - @fakebaseball - Josh Beckett - My pick of Beckett in the 7th round is another pick I didn’t want to make (I prefer drafting starters later, and growing up in New York City, the last thing I want on my team is *two* Red Sox…). However, I believe it’s critical to take the emotion out of drafting and stick to your rankings if you want to do well, and I think I got a great arm on a great team a round later than I expected him to go. For ‘09, I think an ERA of 3.50 with a 1.2 WHIP, 8.25 K/9 or better, and copious wins isn’t an outlandish projection. Haren and Beckett give me a strong start to my rotation, and while I’m digging myself a bit of a hole offensively, it’s one I hope I’ll be able to dig myself out of later in the draft.
• Round 7 : Pick 5(77) - @jefeboy - Andre Ethier - Here we are in the 7th round and I’ve yet to grab an OF, so why not start with one who has the ever-popular “upside.” Solid all-around contributor who could be more than that, if his 2nd-half breakout was legit. 25 HR.
• Round 7 : Pick 6(78) - @xxldaddyo - Jonathan Papelbon - Paps has become a groundball pitcher who doesnt walk anybody. He closes for a team thats gonna win 90 plus games so he’s a lock for 40+ saves.
• Round 7 : Pick 7(79) - @tommystv - Victor Martinez - In a two catcher league I like getting a top 5 Catcher if the timing is right. I know Victor has fallen off in the power department but he still puts the bat on the ball unlike most catchers. So if he’s healthy I got Joe Mauer two rounds later than Joe Mauer. Health is the key.
• Round 7 : Pick 8(80) - @sporer - James Shields - I always struggle with when to start taking SPs.  Well actually I don’t struggle so much as I put it off as long as I can.  I joined the fray earlier than usual with Shields, but it’s hard not to be very pleased as he’s a beast.  He has back-to-back 215 inning seasons with a 1.15 WHIP or better.  He doesn’t dominate batters like a Lincecum or Sabathia, but he’s at or near 7 strikeouts per nine, which is usable.  There is nothing to suggest that the Rays are merely a one-year wonder so he should have the offensive support for wins again in 2009.
• Round 7 : Pick 9(81) - @therotofeed - Carlos Pena - I had to respond to the power dwindling from the boards by taking a player I normally don’t like to roster - I generally want guys I can count on to hit at least .270. But I made the mistake of going with too much BA and not enough power a few years back and learned it’s a lot harder to trade high BA/R/SB guys than it is to unload a basher who can’t hit .250. Plus Pena’s second half last year looked an awful lot like his monstrous 2007.
• Round 7 : Pick 10(82) - @dowdyism - Vernon Wells - After a tough 2007, Wells bounced back nicely in 2008.  Hamstring troubles last season curbed his full season totals, but I think 25 HR and 100 RBI are not out of reach and I’m happy to add his bat to my outfield.
• Round 7 : Pick 11(83) - @jasoncollette - Garrett Atkins - Might as well enjoy the final few months of his productive career before he is traded away from Coors. Unlike Holliday, Atkins is brutal away from Coors. Atkins qualifies at both corner spots which is a nice bonus for 2009 but you can count on reduced production in August and September.
• Round 7 : Pick 12(84) - @seniorcircuit - J.J. Hardy -I passed up Jeter, Tulo, and Young for Hardy.  None of those guys seem as promising as Hardy does at shortstop and a decent shortstop is hard to find.  I don’t feel I reached too far to take him and love the possibility of him improving his batting average and hitting for a little more power. I expect 80/25/85/2/.280

I had a lot of fun last night participating in my first real draft of the year over at Mock Draft Central. The league is a 12 team roto league called Battle of the Fantasy Gods. Here’s how I did drafting from the 12th spot at building my 23-man roster. Remember that we have no bench spots, so all of these guys will start for me each week.

I also spent the night on twitter broadcasting my thoughts, picks, and asking for opinions. Thanks to @fakebaseball, @tmo119, @piraterev, @xxldaddyo, and @angels2717 for hanging out, listening and not laughing at all of my picks. Follow these guys on twitter as well as keep up with my updates too at @crookedpitch.

1. Catcher: Joe Mauer - I grabbed Mauer in the 5th round after Soto, Martin and McCann went earlier. I’m looking forward to his .320+ batting average this season and hope he’ll approach triple digit runs scored and double digit home runs.
2. Catcher: Ryan Doumit - I wasn’t expecting to grab another catcher of this quality, but I did so in the 11th round and can safely say that I have the best catcher tandem in the league. I’m not sure if Doumit will hit over .300 again due to his high hit rate, but .280 or so would be great. Especially if he can approach 20 dingers.
3. First Base: Mark Teixeira - Teixeira was my 2nd round pick at #13 and I expect big things from him hitting in that Yankee lineup.
4. Second Base: Brandon Phillips - I took Phillips in the 3rd round as I felt there was a huge drop off in talent at the second base position after him. I love the power / speed combo.
5. Short Stop: Jimmy Rollins - Rollins was my first round pick and I feel very fortunate that he fell to me at the #12 pick. His speed / power combo also excites me.
6. Third Base: Alex Gordon - At around the 5th round I decided to wait a while for a third baseman. I waited until the 14th round and grabbed Alex Gordon. I’d love it if he hit 20 home runs this season, but it’ll more likely be in the high teens. He could also steal double digit bases for me and since his walk rate is rising, and his strikeout rate is dropping, I’d love to see his batting average climb a bit too.
7. Outfield: Nick Markakis - I took Markakis in the 4th round and I’m looking for triple digit runs scored, 20+ home runs, 10+ stolen bases, and a batting average above .300. Shouldn’t everyone’s standards for a 4th round pick be so high?
8. Outfield: Chris Young - My 8th round pick was Young and I’m going to need my 2008 .300 hitters to stay above .300 to supplement Young’s .250 average. But Young’s 20+ home runs and hopefully 20+ stolen bases will be nice.
9. Outfield: Jay Bruce - In 413 at-bats Bruce hit 21 home runs. So, in 2009, his first full season, I’m hoping for 30+ home runs. The 90-100 RBI that would come with that would be nice for a 10th round pick.
10. Outfield: Nick Swisher - My 17th round pick isn’t even going to get full time at-bats on his new team. I’m hoping that Swisher gets traded from the Yankees or some portion of the log jam there does, or this pick is a bad one.
11. Outfield: Adam Lind - Lind was a 19th round pick to finish out my outfield. I’d love to see him prove that 2007 was an outlier and that the rest of his career at a .300+ batting average is the norm. 20+ home runs would be a gift to me as well.
12. Middle Infielder: Howie Kendrick - Kendrick is a big injury risk, I know this. But, if healthy, he could hit above .300, blast 10 home runs and steal 20 bases. That’s a big if. Plus I got him for a value price in the 13th round at pick #156 when he had an ADP of 130.
13. Corner Infielder: Billy Butler -Two thirds of my corner infield spots play for Kansas City. Am I screwed or what? I hope that Butler can hit north of .290 and come close to 20 home runs in 2009, which wouldn’t be bad for a 20th round pick.
14. Utility: Jason Bartlett - With my last pick of the draft (23rd round) I wanted some more speed. I grabbed Bartlett and hope he’ll reach 20 stolen bases and not hurt me anywhere else.
15. Pitcher: Jonathan Papelbon - I took Paps in the 6th round and he wasn’t the first reliever selected, Francisco Rodriguez went in the 5th. He’s going to notch a lot of saves pitching for the Red Sox. Which I am going ot need since I did not draft another closer.
16. Pitcher: Josh Beckett - Beckett was my 7th round pick and I hope he’ll rebound in 2009 to get his ERA below 4.00 and bring his win total back up.
17. Pitcher:  Scott Kazmir - After Beckett, I wasn’t going to take another pitcher so early. But, when Kazmir was still available at my 9th round pick (#108) I had to jump on him since his ADP was 68. In theory, that’s 6th round talent in the 9th round. Score!
18. Pitcher: Rich Harden - Wish list for my 12th round pick: 1)Please stay healthy! 2)Keep your ERA close to 3.00. 3)Please stay healthy! 4)10+ K/9 ratio would be fantastic. 5)Did I mention please stay healthy?
19. Pitcher: Gavin Floyd -  I’m not expecting 17 wins again from my 15th round draft pick. But 12 wins with 150 strikeouts and a 4.00 ERA would be nice.
20. Pitcher: Matt Garza - I grabbed Garza in the 16th round and expect similar numbers to Floyd from him; 12 wins, 150 strikeouts, sub 4.00 ERA.
21. Pitcher: Max Scherzer - I reached a little bit for my 18th round pick here. I’m hoping for Scherzer to stay in the rotation all season and continue his 10+ K/9 ratio pace.
22. Pitcher: Manny Parra - Parra is my 21st round pick and if I get 10 wins from him and 135 strikeouts with an ERA around 4.00, I’d be happy.
23. Pitcher: Mark Buehrle - 10 Wins, 4.00 ERA, 130 strikeouts. That’s all I want from this 22nd round pick.

So, there you go. How’d I do?

What was my best pick? Worst one?

Here are a few links to the results of the draft:

• Draft Grid
• Team Rosters
• Draft Results