Crooked Pitch

It’s time to begin the ranking of outfielders for the 2009 season. Today, let’s look at the top ten.

1. Grady Sizemore | Cleveland Indians - Dude became a 30/30 guy last season after three seasons of posting 20/20 numbers. And get this, he’s only 26-years old. Triple digit runs scored and the possibility of approaching triple digit RBI make it easy to forget that Sizemore doesn’t have the best batting average.
2. Ryan Braun | Milwaukee Brewers - Anyone who passed on Braun before the ‘08 season worried about a sophomore slump came away disappointed. He scored more runs, hit more home runs and increased his RBI output. Even without third base eligibilty any more, he’s still one of the picks of the litter.
3. Carlos Beltran | New York Mets - At 31-years old people keep telling me that Delgado’s value should plummet soon. It hasn’t happened. He’s a 20/20 guy with triple digit RBI and run totals and nothing less should be expected in ‘09.
4. Josh Hamilton | Texas Rangers - Maybe in the ‘09 All-Star game Hamilton won’t use up all his second half home runs in the derby. Just about 2/3 of his homers came in the first half in ‘08. He posted triple digit RBI and almost hit triple digits in runs scored. His nine stolen bases are gravy. More power could show up in ‘09.
5. Manny Ramirez | Free Agent - What Manny did in the seconld half was sick last year. He can’t keep that pace up for an entire season, but a batting average above .300 with 25+ home runs and triple digit RBI and run totals should be the new definition of “Manny being Manny”.
6. Carlos Lee | Houston Astros - Lee lost close to 200 at-bats due to a shattered pinky in ‘08. He still hit 28 home runs and drove in 100. With the pinky healed expect Lee to easily lock down a line something like .300/30/100/100/10.
7. Alfonso Soriano | Chicago Cubs - Unfortunately, Soriano has been trending negatively in his playing time due to injuries. If he can solve that problem in ‘09 he could get back to his studly 30/30 like numbers.
8. Jason Bay | Boston Red Sox - Bay’s 2008 performance went a long way in showing us that his poor showing in 2007 was an outlier. Give him a full season hitting in that stacked Red Sox lineup and you’ll see better things in ‘09 then you saw in ‘08.
9. Matt Holliday | Oakland Athletics - The new team name on his uniform is the reason why Holliday is in the bottom half of this top ten list and not near the top. The move to Oakland isn’t going to turn him into a Louse, but his offensive output can’t match his days in Colorado, can it?
10. Carlos Quentin | Chicago White Sox - A wrist injury kept Quentin from reaching 40 home runs last season. In 480 at-bats he still drove in 100 and scored 96 runs. In ‘09 watch for Quentin to finish the breakout he started in 2008.

The age old argument of which players belong in the first round of a fantasy baseball draft is as vicious and friendly as a Lucy versus Ricky fight. All of us fantasy GM’s love each other, but we can never agree, 100%, on anything.

For upcoming 2009 fantasy drafts we’ll continue to argue the merits of the 12 players selected in round one all the way up until Opening Day. In an effort to truly understand the first round (something that we’ll never accomplish) we need to break it down.

My first thought was that the first round needs to be broken down into three tiers. Each of these tiers will contain players who are interchangeable within the tier, but don’t really fit into the other tiers. Upon further review, I feel four tiers are needed for the 2009 first round.

Tier One: Hanley Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, and David Wright.

These four players are the sole members of tier one because they are the only four players who have been selected with the first pick in the draft over at Mock Draft Central over the past two weeks. As you’ll see by their average draft positions and their highest and lowest spot taken statistics, it’s often agreed that these four belong at the top of the draft. Not many agree on where they should go. It depends a lot on personal preference (either for a player or for a particular stat category) and a little on risk.

• Ramirez - 1.35 ADP | Earliest - 1st | Latest - 4th
• Rodriguez - 2.11 ADP | Earliest - 1st | Latest - 5th
• Pujols - 3.01 ADP | Earliest - 1st | Latest - 7th
• Wright - 4.42 ADP | Earliest - 1st | Latest - 7th

Tier Two: Jose Reyes

I had originally thought that Reyes would be the fifth member of tier one. But, since he has not been taken first, and he’s the only remaining player who is always taken in the first round, I felt that he warranted a tier of his own.

• Reyes - 4.62 ADP | Earliest - 2nd | Latest - 10th

Tier Three: Grady Sizemore, Miguel Cabrera and Jimmy Rollins

These three are generally the next three that are considered to go off of the board. You could almost argue that Sizemore belongs in the tier with Reyes, but he’s been taken outside of the first round periodically, so he’s banished to tier three. Rollins almost was knocked down to tier four as he’s been selected pretty late at times. But, he just snuck into tier three because his ADP is under 10. That’s the cutoff from tier three to tier four; you must have an ADP under 10 to be in tier three.

• Sizemore - 6.63 ADP | Earliest - 3rd | Latest - 14th
• Cabrera - 7.22 ADP | Earliest - 4th | Latest - 16th
• Rollins - 9.46 ADP | Earliest - 6th | Latest - 18th

Tier Four: Josh Hamilton, Ryan Braun, Ian Kinsler and Ryan Howard

Here are the four players who make up the end of round one. The variances among them are huge. Sometimes you see them taken in the third slot, sometimes as late as 20th. These four are also the players that are most argued out of the first round and replaced by players like Chase Utley, Johan Santana, Mark Teixeira and Matt Hoilliday. What seperates the members of tier four from those just outside of it is their ADP. Each member of tier four has an ADP under twelve. They are the only remaining players who have that destinction.

• Hamilton - 10.51 ADP | Earliest - 4th | Latest - 19th
• Braun - 10.76 ADP | Earliest - 4th | Latest - 19th
• Kinsler - 11.10 ADP | Earliest - 6th | Latest - 20th
• Howard - 11.52 ADP | Earliest - 3rd | Latest - 20th

I had a brilliant idea the other day, which happens quite a bit. But unlike most of my mad scientist theories brilliant ideas, this one actually sounded good after I thought about it for a while; so I set it into motion.

With the popularity of mock drafts growing and growing, I wanted to put one together. My reasons for this were not only  to practice for a real draft, but to get the participants thoughts and strategies as they went. My theory was that if each fantasy GM wrote down what they were thinking and what kind of strategy they were employing after each pick, so many people could benefit from that knowledge; for a number of reasons.

1. You can see how a draft unfolds; which players go where.
2. You can see if more fantasy GM’s are grabbing power or speed and in what rounds.
3. You can see how many of these guys use draft strategies, and when they go about putting them into play.
4. Right or wrong, you get to hear what people think about these players and what drives a fantasy GM to draft them

There are actually tons of reasons why this is a great learning tool. So, to set this up I grabbed a bunch of tweeps (friends on twitter) and asked them to participate. It was easy to find 11 other guys and the cool thing about the mix of mock draft participants is that they come from all walks of fantasy baseball life. We’ve got experts mixed in with advanced fantasy GM’s. So, you’ll get to hear ideas from a myriad of different types of fantasy baseballers.

Without further ado, let’s talk about the first round that was just completed. The team name is also the twitter moniker for each participant. If you’re on twitter, go say hello. The commentary after the pick is from each manager. They were asked to talk about the pick and any particular strategy; if using one.

• Round 1 : Pick 1 - @crookedpitch - Hanley Ramirez - What? I have to wait 23 more picks until I get to go again??? Ouch, I had better make this pick count. Ramirez is a 30/30 stud who will also score 100+ runs easy. I can’t think of a better way to start my team off then by grabbing this power/speed combo guy who will also hit .300. At this point I’m going to wait and see how the rest of the first round and the second round play out before etching a draft strategy in stone.
• Round 1 : Pick 2 - @Angels2717 - Albert Pujols - I decided to stick with the consistency of Albert. The only off year was the one where he was injured.  His all around power is appealing to me and his ability to get on base a lot and to do just about everything.  This pick was hard based on the fact that there was a lot to choose from after Hanley: A-Rod, Reyes, Wright.  After a little time of thinking, I decided I liked Pujols’ consistency more than anything the other possibilities had.
• Round 1 : Pick 3 - @TheRoundtable - Alex Rodriguez - Rodriguez is automatic. Pencil him in for .300/40/110 without breaking a sweat. He’ll even steal 15-20. He’s the marquee player in a new ballpark, and has new found protection in Mark Teixeira.
• Round 1 : Pick 4 - @fakebaseball - Jose Reyes - I was pleased to see that Jose Reyes was available with the 4th pick. He’s proven to be a relatively reliable player at a premium position, and assuming continued good health, he’ll give me a nice leg up on the oft-frustrating stolen base category. I’ll be happy if I can get .290/15 HR/55 SB from my shortstop, because there should be plenty of power bats available in the following rounds. I know there’s been some blogosphere hand-wringing over the Mets’ new stadium, but even if the portents of team-power doom are true, it shouldn’t have a significant impact on Reyes’ value.
• Round 1 : Pick 5 - @jefeboy - David Wright - Couldn’t see taking an OF this early, and Wright seems like a good solid choice who will contribute in every category. One site lists his ADP as 4.8, so getting him 5th makes me happy.
• Round 1 : Pick 6 - @xxldaddyo - Grady Sizemore - I have to go with Grady Sizemore. He became a 30-30 guy last year and I think has the potential to be a 40-40 guy. Those guys don’t grow on trees (especially if they arent on steroids). Entering prime Age 26 season.
• Round 1 : Pick 7 - @tommystv - Chase Utley - I’m a sucker for building a solid Middle Infield early. 1st Base and OF I tend to pass on until the right player slips because those positions are so much deeper. If I would have gone 1B it would have been Teixera and OF would have been Ryan Braun, I really think both of those guys are gonna have nice seasons. The biggest money league I play in allows position eligibility if the player plays one game at the position…yes, Albert Puljos was 2nd base eligible last year. If that were the case here I would have given serious consideration to Miguel Cabrera for possible dual 1st/3rd and Ryan Braun for possibly getting an odd game at 3rd.
• Round 1 : Pick 8 - @sporer - Miguel Cabrera - Considering I nearly ranked Miguel Cabrera ahead of Albert Pujols in my 1B rankings, he was a no-brainer for me when he fell to 8th.  I had him 7th in my top 10 immediately after the season and his placement drew the most comments, but with mock season in full gear he has been a consistent first rounder.  He showed so much in the second half of last season and the 40-home run season that has eluded him thus far may very well be on the horizon.  He is a four category stud that belongs in the top half of the first round.  As such, I was happy to steal him at eight.
• Round 1 : Pick 9 - @therotofeed - Ryan Howard - With Miguel Cabrera off the board, I had to go with Ryan Howard at the ninth position.  Not that I’m hanging my head too low - I never really feel bad about rostering a guy who consistently cranks out 45+ HR seasons, and I gotta think that this year he hits at least 15-20 BA pts higher than last season. But I still wanted Miggy.
• Round 1 : Pick 10 - @dowdyism - Josh Hamilton - I normally look for a strong infield pick in the first round, but since most of my targets are gone at the 10 spot, I grabbed Josh Hamilton.  I’m missing out on some steals by not going with Matt Holliday or Ryan Braun, but as loaded as the top of the Texas order is, I am banking on big numbers across the board with Hamilton.
• Round 1 : Pick 11 - @jasoncollette - Ryan Braun - Pretty happy to have Braun to me at the 11th pick. I was not expecting it but you have to take a 5 category player in the first round.
• Round 1 : Pick 12 - @seniorcircuit - Mark Teixeira -Got a reliable, power first baseman who will have plenty of RBI chances in the Yankees batting order. He seems happy (and his wife too) to be playing for a contending team in a brand new ballpark. I see him putting up 100/30+/110/.300 season.

With that, round one is complete. Let’s hear your commens and/or questions.

Here are the fantasy baseball rankings for the top ten outfielders for the 2008 season. I will also list the predictions from the pre-season at the bottom of this post for comparison.

1. Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles Dodgers - Manny did it all in 2008. He alienated teammates and Red Sox Nation. But, once he decided to get serious, he hit better than anyone else in baseball. 102 runs | 37 HR | 121 RBI | 3 SB | .332
2. Matt Holliday, Colorado Rockies - Is it possible for your home run total to go down at Coors Field? I’m nit picking here since he still hit 25 homers and was one of the most versatile hitters in fantasy baseball. 107 runs | 25 HR | 88 RBI | 28 SB | .321
3. Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers - Had a much more powerful first half than second. But both halves of the season were pretty phenomenal. 98 runs | 32 HR | 130 RBI | 9 SB | .304
4. Lance Berkman, Houston Astros - This is most likely the last seaosn you’ll see Berkman with outfield eligibility. Now he can dominate the first basemen for the rest of his career. 114 runs | 29 HR | 106 RBI | 18 SB | .312
5. Ryan Ludwick, St. Louis Cardinals - A lot of St. Louis fans wondered out loud what Ludwick could do with a full season of at-bats. He tore the cover off of the ball. 104 runs | 37 HR | 113 RBI | 4 SB | .299
6. Carlos Beltran, New York Mets - His power is dipping which is understandable as you age. But, his stolen bases are on the rise (aren’t you supposed to slow down as you get older?). With all of these question marks, the only thig that is a certainty is that Beltran is an all around fantasy stud. 116 runs | 27 HR | 112 RBI | 25 SB | .284
7. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers - No sophomore slump for Braun. He actually bested his home run total and RBI total from 2007. 92 runs | 37 HR | 106 RBI | 14 SB | .285
8. Jason Bay, Boston Red Sox - Another solid season for Bay who may end up really liking it in Boston. It’s starting to look like 2007 was an anomaly. 111 runs | 31 HR | 101 RBI | 10 SB | .286
9. Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians - This guy does everything extremely well. if his batting average would have been 10-15 points higher he would have been in the top three on this list. 101 runs | 33 HR | 90 RBI | 38 SB | .268
10. Carlos Quentin, Chicago White Sox - 36 dingers and 100 RBI in only 480 at-bats. Imagine what it could have been like if he’d gotten 550+ at-bats… 96 runs | 36 HR | 100 RBI | 7 SB | .287

Below are the pre-season rankings.

2008 American League Fantasy Baseball Outfielder Rankings

1. Carl Crawford | Tampa Bay Rays
2. Grady Sizemore | Cleveland Indians
3. Ichiro Suzuki | Seattle Mariners
4. Vladimir Guerrero | Los Angeles Angels
5. B.J. Upton | Tampa Bay Rays
6. Alex Rios | Toronto Blue Jays
7. Curtis Granderson | Detroit Tigers
8. Magglio Ordonez | Detroit Tigers
9. Manny Ramirez | Boston Red Sox
10. Bobby Abreu | New York Yankees
11. Nick Markakis | Baltimore Orioles
12. Torii Hunter | Los Angeles Angels
13. Vernon Wells | Toronto Blue Jays
14. Hideki Matsui | New York Yankees
15. Nick Swisher | Chicago White Sox
16. Jermaine Dye | Chicago White Sox
17. Delmon Young | Minnesota Twins
18. Johnny Damon | New York Yankees
19. Jacoby Ellsbury | Boston Red Sox
20. Raul Ibanez | Seattle Mariners
21. Jose Guillen | Kansas City Royals
22. Melky Cabrera | New York Yankees
23. Gary Matthews Jr. | Los Angeles Angels

2008 National League Fantasy Baseball Outfielder Rankings

1. Matt Holliday | Colorado Rockies
2. Alfonso Soriano| Chicago Cubs
3. Carlos Beltran | New York Mets
4. Carlos Lee | Houston Astros
5. Adam Dunn | Cincinnati Reds
6. Eric Byrnes | Arizona Diamondbacks
7. Chris Young | Arizona Diamondbacks
8. Hunter Pence | Houston Astros
9. Cory Hart | Milwaukee Brewers
10. Brad Hawpe | Colorado Rockies
11. Andruw Jones | Los Angeles Dodgers
12. Jason Bay | Pittsburgh Pirates
13. Shane Victorino | Philadelphia Phillies
14. Juan Pierre | Los Angeles Dodgers
15. Jeff Francoeur | Atlanta Braves
16. Ken Griffey Jr. | Cincinnati Reds
17. Matt Kemp | Los Angeles Dodgers
18. Pat Burrell | Philadelphia Phillies
19. Aaron Rowand| San Francisco Giants
20. Jeremy Hermida | Florida Marlins
21. Austin Kearns | Washington Nationals
22. Moises Alou | New York Mets

Catcher: Russell Martin | Los Angeles Dodgers - Geovany Soto and his 16 bombs got the All-Star starting job for the NL, while stud Brian McCann barely got to play even though his numbers merited the role of NL starter as well. Russell martin was sandwiched in between them for the game. And even though he has fewer home runs than both catchers, and a lower batting average than McCann, Martin is the first half, fantasy MVP due to his stolen base output. He swiped 10 bags and proved that cathcers can run a bit. His value is in the fact that he produces in every fantasy category, and with numbers like .294/.394/.436 with 49 runs, 10 home runs, 45 RBI, and 10 stolen bases, he produces well.

First Base: Lance Berkman | Houston Astros - Ryan Howard may have 28 home runs, but he’s not even close to being as valuable of a fantasy first baseman as Berkman is. Berkman batted .347/.443/.653 with 79 runs, 22 home runs, 73 RBI, and 15 stolen bases in the first half of 2008. He may even have been the most valuable player in the entire fantasy baseball universe.

Second Base: Ian Kinsler | Texas Rangers - In April, if you had told me that Chase Utley would have 25 home runs at the All-Star break and wouldn’t be the most valuable fantasy baseball second baseman, I would have called the insane asylum and booked your room. It’s true though. Kinsler topped Utley in batting average, runs scored, and stolen bases, and isn’t too far behind in the RBI category. Kinsler’s first half numbers were .337/.397/.548 with 84 runs scored, 14 home runs, 58 RBI, and 23 stolen bases.

Shortstop: Hanley Ramirez | Florida Marlins - Ramirez sure has proven worthy of first round consideration at draft time this past off-season. He put up first half numbers of .311/.391/.566 with 80 runs scored, 23 home runs, 45 RBI, and 23 stolen bases and did that all without Miguel Cabrera hitting in the Marlins lineup with him. The only shortstop who can put up numbers like Hanley is playing third base for the Yankees.

Third Base: Chipper Jones | Atlanta Braves - Although he’s no longer flirting with a .400 batting average, Jones still tearing up National League pitching and leading the league in batting average . Jones is batting .376/.472/.614 with 56 runs scored, 18 home runs, 51 RBI, and two stolen bases. As long as Jones stays healthy, expect monster production from him to continue in the second half.

Outfield: Josh Hamilton | Texas Rangers - You don’t even have to consider his 28 home run, first round home run derby spectacle to consider what Hamilton is doing this season as spectacular. He’s leading MLB in RBI as he approached 100 RBI in the first half alone, and is just an all around good story for baseball. His first half numbers were .310/.367/.552 with 60 runs scored, 21 home runs, 95 RBI, and even seven stolen bases. Wherever you drafted this guy, you absolutely stole him.

Starting Pitcher: Tim Lincecum | San Francisco Giants - Picking a first half MVP from the great performers from the starting pitching pool, was very difficult. Cliff Lee, Edison Volquez, Roy Halladay, and even Justin Duchscherer deserved consideration. Lincecum was chosen as he second in the league in strikeouts, tied for third in wins, and is an ERA stud pitching for what was supposed to be a terrible team. His first half line was 11-2 with a 2.57 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 135 strikeouts and 47 walks in 129.2 innings of work.

Relief Pitcher: Francisco Rodriguez | Los Angeles Angels - Rodriguez’ closest competitor in the saves category is 10 saves away, and his 38 saves leads MLB by a long shot. He also has a 2.36 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP to go along with those saves. In 42 innings pitched, Rodriguez struck out 41 and walked 26.