Crooked Pitch

There has been more shuffling going on in the Texas Rangers infield lately than in a Las Vegas poker room. Michael Young is moving to third base. Highly touted youngster Chris Davis is moving over to first base. Nobody knows if Hank Blalock is going to DH, platoon, or ride the pine. And finally, Elvis Andrus is the heir apparent at short stop.

But, before you re-write all these names in ink, take a look at Justin Smoak.

Now that the third base situation is finally in hand, maybe Chris Davis can now relax and settle in at first base, right?

Not so fast. It would behoove Davis not to sign a long-term lease at first. Justin Smoak is coming and coming fast, from all reports. Most speculation has him arriving by 2010 and with his reputation as a smooth glove man, as well as a terrific hitter, Davis will likely be on the move again very soon.

Justin Smoak was the 11th pick of the 2008 draft to the Rangers after belting 17 home runs in 2006 and 22 home runs in 2007 for the South Carolina Gamecocks. He only played in 14 Single-A games last year but hit .304 with three home runs in his first 56 professional at-bats. He really wowed the Arizona Fall League by hitting .352 in 51 at-bats with four doubles and two home runs.

Before everyone starts adding Smoak to their draft sheets, slow down and realize that he’ll, most likely, spend most of, if not the entire, 2009 in the minors. Davis will have the entire season to show everyone if his torrid 2008 run was real or a fluke. It won’t be until 2010 that the Rangers have to answer tough questions about what to do with Smoak. And Davis’ 2009 numbers will play a large part in determining that answer.

Smoak’s only fantasy impact for 2009 should be in leagues that utilize minor league systems.

To get a better grip on just who Justin Smoak is, take a look at these other posts:

• Keith Law puts Smoak up against some pretty stiff prospect talent.
• The Diamond Cutter tells us just what kind of hitter Smoak is.
• John Sickels ranks Smoak as the  Rangers #2 prospect.

I’m in a couple of leagues that run their minor league draft after the MLB draft is finished. Here’s some thoughts for fantasy GMs in similar situations. (That’s telekinesis, Kyle!)

• Pedro Alvarez going to Pitt is good news for his value. He’s much more likely to stay at 3B now than it looked like earlier in the year when everyone thought he was going to Tampa. Of course, it’s not likely the Pirates’ lineup is going to be good anytime soon.
  
• Yonder Alonso to the Reds is a surprise pick, and it means that either he or Votto is likely to move to the outfield. Yonder (along with Alvarez) might be the most polished hitter in the draft, and should move quickly.
• I probably don’t need to say it, but Justin Smoak in Texas could be a monster. The team has to be thrilled that he dropped that far, as they’ve had some pretty good luck with switch-hitting slugger first basemen.
• I liked Jemile Weeks a lot as a guy to draft for fantasy leagues, as he’s polished, has a good bat at a thin position (2B), and can steal a lot of bases. I’m hoping that landing with the A’s won’t mean he’s going to be limited on the basepaths. Hope for an Ellsbury-esque SB% in the minors.
• Brett Wallace is an interesting choice for an NL team that has Albert Pujols playing first base. I think this pick might hurt his value in fantasy leagues, because nobody really believes he can play major league defense anywhere but 1B.
• The Brewers selected Brett Lawrie out of high school in Canada. I’m not going to talk about many high school players (I try to avoid drafting any of them in fantasy leagues unless the upside is huge) but the interesting thing is he was announced as a Catcher, which most teams think is a stretch. If the Brewers keep him there, he’s an impact bat at that position for sure.
• Josh Fields isn’t going to be much of a fantasy threat, but I wanted to take this opportunity to rip my favorite team the Mariners (I know, thanks for your sympathy) for a terrible pick. A team that needs to detonate and rebuild, and has shown their only organizational talent to be developing relief pitching, has no reason to pick a college reliever in the first round. Fields also has questionable control, and poor size and mechanics. Fantasy-wise, this is good news for Brandon Morrow owners, as it pretty much guarantees his move to the rotation. It’s where he should have been anyway, but again, it’s the Mariners.
• The Red Sox’ pick of Casey Kelly (another HS kid) is one of my favorite of the draft. He’s got a lot of athletic ability, and dropped to #30 because he has a football scholarship at Tennessee. It’d be hard for any young player to pass up guaranteed money for the best team in baseball though, and I’d keep an eye on his progress for fantasy leagues.