Crooked Pitch

It was a nice, calm, peaceful day in the twitterverse yesterday when @jasoncollette unknowingly kicked off a name calling, eye raking slap fest that had all the intensity of a sorority house pillow fight. Well, it might not have been that interesting, but when Jason said

Why is it that Jose Lopez is going later in mocks right now than Aviles, Uggla, and DeRosa? Lopez is going as a solid late rd value lately.

the battle began between @theroundtable, @fakebaseball and myself.

To make a very long story short(er), After multiple people got involved in the slug fest, the gauntlet was thrown and I was challenged to rank these mid-tier second basemen and to back up my rankings. Oh, and I also had to throw in Kelly Johnson too. So, here’s what I think about Jose Lopez, Mike Aviles, Dan Uggla, Mark DeRosa, and Kelly Johnson.

First off, let’s take a look at their numbers from last season.

• Lopez - .297/.322/.443 17HR, 89RBI, 80R, 6SB in 644 at-bats
• Aviles - .325/.354/.480 10HR, 51RBI, 68R, 8SB in 416 at-bats
• Uggla  - .260/.360/.514 32HR, 92RBI, 97R, 5SB in 531 at-bats
• DeRosa - .285/.376/.481 21HR, 87RBI, 103R, 6SB in 505 at-bats
• Johnson - .287/.349/.446 12HR, 69RBI, 86R, 11SB in 547 at-bats

Just looking at last years numbers their rankings look something like Uggla, DeRosa, Lopez, Johnson and then Aviles.

But now, let’s take a look at some 2009 projections and their current ADP on Mock Draft Central.

• Lopez - .282/14/74/69/5 and has a current ADP of 166.31 (late 14th round)
• Aviles - .285/12/63/72/8 and has a current ADP of 152.97 (mid 13th round)
• Uggla - .257/26/83/94/5 and has a current ADP of 61.89 (early 6th round)
• DeRosa - .274/14/70/73/4 and has a current ADP of 188.04 (mid to late 16th round)
• Johnson - .280/14/64/80/9 and has a current ADP of 219.98 (early 19th round)

You can see that mock drafters think Uggla should go first, then Aviles, Lopez, DeRosa and finally Johnson. However, by just these projections I think Uggla should go first. After Uggla you’d take Johnson, Lopez, Aviles and finally DeRosa. But, I’m not stopping with last years numbers and projections. I want to delve deeper into some numbers from these guys.

I want to look at some trends for these guys. Aviles was a rookie last year so he only has that year to go off of (unless I use MiLB numbers, which I won’t). Johnson only has two consecutive years to look at, so his trend data isn’t as solid as I’d like. But, the other three guys have three solid years of data from which I’d like to look at walk rate, strikeout rate, and home run to flyball ratios.

• Lopez - His BB% improved from ‘07, but his ‘08 4.0 BB% isn’t as high as his ‘06 of 4.1%. His K%, however, is trending fantastically from 13.3% in 2006 to 12.2% in ‘07, to 10.4% last year. His HR/F ratio is also headed in the right direction. His 8.2% in ‘08 look a lot better than his 6.4% in ‘07 and his 5.7% in ‘06. I’d like to see Lopez walk a bit more, but his strikeout rate looks really good and so does his HR/F. His fly ball rate even went up after the All-Star break last season. More fly balls + an upward trending HR/F ratio = good things.
• Aviles - Had a 4.1% walk rate, a 13.8% strikeout rate and a 8.3% HR/F ratio. Other than a weird August where he hit dramatically fewer fly balls and fewer home runs, Aviles stayed pretty steady with these ratios all season. It’ll be interesting to see if he can keep that up in ‘09.
• Uggla - He’s walking a lot more (12.7% in ‘08 versus 7.3% in ‘06), striking out a lot more (32.2% in ‘08 versus 20.1% in ‘06) and his HR/F ratio which was pretty consistent between ‘06 and ‘07 (13%) jumped a lot to 18.4% in ‘08. It may be unrealistic to think he’ll keep that HR/F ratio in the high teens, and his K% is starting to scare me.
• DeRosa - Only one of these three ratios trend in the same direction for DeRosa over the last three years. His BB% is continually rising from 7.8% in ‘06 to 12.0% in ‘08. But his K% and HR/F bounce around like a pinball. His K% went down in ‘07, but back up to 21.0% in ‘08. His HR/F ratio went down in ‘07 but back up in ‘08 to 13.7%.
• Johnson - His BB% dropped in ‘08 to 8.7% from 13.2% in ‘07. His K% also dropped from 22.5% to 20.7% and unfortunately his HR/F ratio dropped from 10.3% to 7.6%. The pop seems to have left Johnson’s b at.

In concluding this assessment, I want to add a look into their contact rates and their hit rates to get a little more info into plate discipline and any luck factors that might be in play. I’ll also mention in what round these guys should be taken. Also pay attention that from this point forward, they’ll be ranked.

1. Dan Uggla - His power potential makes him the obvious number one on this list. But, I’ve never been a big fan of his batting average. Also take  into account that he has a miserable 67.7% contact rate and was a little bit lucky with his batted balls (32.3% hit rate) and Uggla’s batting average could get worse. I think his HR/F ratio will come back down (in fact it dramatically dropped in the second half last year) which could result in a power drop off as well. Because of these fears, I wouldn’t take a chance on Uggla until the 8th round. And I might even pass him by completely in favor of the number two and three guys on this list.
2. Jose Lopez - I love the way his fly ball ratio trended upward an extra 4% in the second half last year. If he can keep that going in addition to his natural HR/F improvements from year to year you might see 20-25 home runs out of Lopez. He also has the best contact rate (89.5%) of anyone on this list and his hit rate was pretty close to normal at 31.1%. In addition to his extra power potential, Lopez has the tools to hit .300. Feel comfortable taking him in the 10th to early 12th rounds.
3. Kelly Johnson - Johnson’s power seems to be fading away, but I still like his double digit potential in both steals and home runs. He has tendancies of being very streaky, which makes him a more valuable roto hitter than a head-to-head guy. And his contact rate (79.3%) and hit rate (34.4%) don’t lend well to him approaching the .300 level at all. Johnson shouldn’t be taken until the 14-15th rounds, maybe later.
4. Mark DeRosa - This guy had a career power year at age 33 (last year). If you pay for those numbers and expect them to be around in 2009, you’re crazy. His contact rate is too low (79.0%) to make a run at .293 again and while his hit rate (32.5%) is right in line with his career average, there are way too many chances for DeRosa to bomb in ‘09. He’s not a safe pick any more and will be moving to third base in Cleveland (which will kill his value in 2010). If he’s around in the 17th round grab him as a flier, but have other options in mind if he’s not the hitter he was in ‘08.
5. Mike Aviles - What a rookie season this guy had. And those of you grabbing him in the 13th round right now are paying way too much for him. He had a hit rate of 35.9% last season, which is incredibly high. When that rate normalizes Aviles’ batting average will suffer. With a contact rate of 86.1% it won’t drop down to Uggla’ish levels, but what good are his other numbers if he brings a .285 batting average to the table? Draft Aviles in the 17th to 18th round knowing that he can’t possibly repeat his ‘08 numbers in 2009.

This is going to be the shortest list so far as I rank the players by position. Why is that? Well, I’ll answer that, as well as many other questions that I know you all will ask before you can blow up my inbox with hate mail.

B.J. Upton is not on this list, he’ll be in the outfield rankings. Alexei Ramirez and Mike Aviles will be in the short stop rankings and Mark DeRosa will be in the third base rankings. Yes, I know they have second base eligibility, but I’m placing them in their projected position. I may go back and do a multiple eligibility list, and I may not. How’s that for setting expectations?

You also have a number of position battles going on. There’s Getz versus Nix in Chicago, Barmes versus Baker in Colorado, Burris versus Velez versus Frandsen in San Francisco and Antonelli versus Gonzalez in San Diego. Until winners are announced in those races, they’re not making the list.

Also, Orlando Hudson and Jeff Kent are missing from this list as they have yet to sign anywhere. I’ll include them once they do.

Here are the 2009 fantasy second base rankings:

1. Chase Utley | Philadelphia Phillies - He’s vowed to be ready by Opening Day. That’s good enough to make #1 on this list. A healthy Utley is the best second baseman in baseball, from a fantasy perspective.
2. Dustin Pedroia | Boston Red Sox - I’m going to be the first one on my block to grow a pair and launch Pedroia up where he belongs; #2 on this list. He hits better than Kinsler, scores more and drives in more. Plus he’s the reigning AL MVP! For all that is good in this world, hear me… Pedroia should be #2 on the fantasy second base rankings!
3. Ian Kinsler | Texas Rangers - Had Kinsler played in 157 games like Pedroia, he would have surpassed Pedroia’s numbers easily. But, he didn’t. In fact, Kinsler hasn’t played in more than 130 games in his career. Until he proves that he can stay healthy, he’s riding in the back seat of Pedroia’s car.
4. Brandon Phillips | Cincinnati Reds - Phillips is a perennial 20/20 guy and I bet he brings his batting average back up towards the .270 range this season too.
5. Brian Roberts | Baltimore Orioles - This guy approaches double digit home runs, 40 stolen bases, and a .300 batting average every year. I’m thinking .290/10/38 in ‘09 and he’ll score 95 as well. Solid!
6. Dan Uggla | Florida Marlins - Uggla is the first guy on this list who doesn’t steal bases. But, he does mash the ball with the best of them. Don’t expect his average to rise above .265, but you can bank on 25+ home runs, probably 30.
7. Robinson Cano | New York Yankees - If only Cano batted in the first half the way he did in the second half, he would be elite. That just doesn’t seem likely to happen though. He should get his batting average back up to .300 this season, but the 14-18 home runs he showed us last year seem to be his benchmark.
8. Jose Lopez | Seatle Mariners - How did Lopez emerge in ‘08? Fewer strikeouts, more walks, and a reasonable hit rate. Expect ‘09 to look more like ‘08 than ‘07. I’m thinking .280/15/75.
9. Kelly Johnson | Atlanta Braves - This should be the third year in a row that Johnson quietly hits around .275 and gets fantasy owners double digit home runs and stolen bases.
10. Placido Polanco | Detroit Tigers - If only Polanco had a touch more pop in his bat or speed. If only… He’s a solid .300+ hitter and he’ll score tons of runs.
11. Howie Kendrick | Los Angeles Angels - Kendrick is the person on this list most likely to outperform his ranking. If healthy, he could easily hit .315 with 15 home runs and 20 stolen bases. He’s also just as likely to fall and rip open his spleen to further prove to Angels fans that he’ll never reach the 100 game plateau. High risk/high reward here.
12. Alexi Casilla | Minnesota Twins - This 24-year-old can burn and should be given more green lights on the base paths in ‘09. He’s probably more like a .270 hitter than .280, but could reach double digit home runs with 550+ at-bats.
13. Rickie Weeks | Milwaukee Brewers - Every year I hear that Weeks’ true hitting skills were shown in 2006 with his .279 batting average and not the garbage we see every other year. If you’ve said this recently, or in the past, I’m telling you that you’re wrong. Weeks is a .235 hitter who benefitted from an extremely high hit rate in 2006. He will, however, plant 15 homers in the seats and come close to scoring 100. You’d just better have a plan to make up for his sloppy batting average.
14. Freddy Sanchez | Pittsburgh Pirates - Sanchez always seems to get you close to a .300 average with 8-10 home runs and 75 to 85 runs scored. Nothing should be different in 2009.
15. Kaz Matsui | Houston Astros - 20 stolen bases in 375 at-bats with a .293 batting average in ‘08? Draft him late just for those numbers and jump for joy if he reaches 500 at-bats.
16. Mike Fontenot | Chicago Cubs - With DeRosa out Fontenot finally earns the starting job in Chicago. I may be going out on a limb here, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see .285 with 13 home runs, 60 RBI amd 75 runs scored.
17. Felipe Lopez | Arizona Diamondbacks - Lopez hit .283 last year and gave glimpses that he could have a power surge of sorts. A few more home runs (read:11) and stolen bases (read:15) make Lopez somewhat relevant.
18. Aaron Hill | Toronto Blue Jays -Hill is walking more and striking out less which will help him bring his average back up. Don’t expect .291 as his hit rate was abnormally high in ‘07. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see .280-.285 with 10 home runs.
19. Akinora Iwamura | Tampa Bay Rays -What you saw last year (.274/4/48/91/8) is pretty much what you get.
20. Mark Ellis | Oakland Athletics -Ellis isn’t really a .233 hitter. A hit rate plunge was likely the culprit in driving his average down in ‘08. He won’t hit much higher than .255 though, but he will blast 12-16 homers and reach double digit steals.
21. Blake DeWitt | Los Angeles Dodgers - Dewitt started over Kent in the playoffs and that trend should remain true whether or not Kent comes back. Don’t expect his batting average to head north much, but he could hit a few more home runs.
22. Luis Castillo | New York Mets - He’s slowing down a bit and striking out more, which doesn’t bode well for his only perceived value of batting average, runs scored and stolen bases. This guy  is trending downward.
23. Asdrubal Cabrera | Cleveland Indians - Strikes out a lot, but strangely walks a lot too. Until we figure that out, think of Cabrera hitting .265 with 8-10 home runs and 8-10 stolen bases.
24. Adam Kennedy | St. Louis Cardinals - Gets at-bats in St. Louis mainly because of his glove. How many of you use fielding statistics in your fantasy leagues?
25. Alberto Callaspo | Kansas City Royals - Doesn’t offer much other than a .280 or so batting average in ‘09.
26. Anderson Hernandez | Washington Nationals - If a .250 hitting second baseman with very few home runs and stolen bases fits into your fantasy agenda, this is your guy.

Here are the fantasy baseball rankings for the top ten second basemen for the 2008 season. I will also list the predictions from the pre-season at the bottom of this post for comparison.

1. Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox - You probably spent the first half of the season asking yourself if Pedroia could really be this good. Now we’re all asking if Pedroia could really be the American League MVP. The answer is yes to both questions. 118 runs | 17 HR | 83 RBI | 20 SB | .326
2. Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies - With 18 home runs before June, there seemed to be no slowing Utley down. He did come back down to earth as injuries took their toll by season’s end. 113 runs | 33 HR | 104 RBI | 14 SB | .292
3. Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers - Had Kinsler not gone down August with a season ending injury, amazing things could have happened. 102 runs | 18 HR | 71 RBI | 26 SB | .319
4. Brian Roberts, Baltimore Orioles - Roberts may want out of Baltimore and onto a winning team, but any fantasy roster that he’s on is better for having him. His stolen base totals drive his fantasy value, but he produces in many more ways. 107 runs | 9 HR | 57 RBI | 40 SB | .296
5. Dan Uggla, Florida Marlins - Uggla struck out 171 times but still hit .260. It’s his power, however, that makes him valuable to the fantasy GM. 97 runs | 32 HR | 92 RBI | 5 SB | .260
6. Mark DeRosa, Chicago Cubs - DeRosa does just about everything well. And his multi-position eligibility makes him a rock star. 103 runs | 21 HR | 87 RBI | 6 SB | .285
7. Jose Lopez, Seattle Mariners - Didn’t make a lot of noise, but put up a lot of fantasy numbers. 80 runs | 17 HR | 89 RBI | 6 SB | .297
8. Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati Reds - A broken finger cost him about 50 at-bats. He still showed an awesome speed/power duality before he went down. 80 runs | 21 HR | 78 RBI | 23 SB | .261
9. Alexei Ramirez, Chicago White Sox - Probably won’t top Evan Longoria for American League Rookie of the Year honors, but his 2008 campaign was fantastic none the less. Give him a full season of at-bats and you’d have seen him higher on this list. 65 runs | 21 HR | 77 RBI | 13 SB | .290
10. Kelly Johnson, Atlanta Braves - Double digit home runs and stolen bases make Johnson a desirable fantasy option. 86 runs | 12 HR | 69 RBI | 11 SB | .287

Below you’ll find the pre-season rankings for the second base position.

2008 American League Fantasy Baseball Second Base Rankings

1. B.J. Upton | Tampa Bay Rays
2. Brian Roberts | Baltimore Orioles
3. Robinson Cano | New York Yankees
4. Ian Kinsler | Texas Rangers
5. Dustin Pedroia | Boston Red Sox
6. Howie Kendrick | Los Angeles Angels
7. Placido Polanco | Detroit Tigers
8. Aaron Hill | Toronto Blue Jays
9. Mark Ellis | Oakland Athletics
10. Asdrubal Cabrera | Cleveland Indians
11. Jose Lopez | Seattle Mariners
12. Danny Richar | Chicago White Sox
13. Alexi Casilla | Minnesota Twins
14. Mark Grudzialanek | Kansas City Royals
15. Macier Izturis | Los Angeles Angels
16. Brendan Harris | Minnesota Twins

2008 National League Fantasy Baseball Second Base Rankings

1. Brandon Phillips | Cincinnati Reds
2. Chase Utley | Philadelphia Phillies
3. Dan Uggla | Florida Marlins
4. Kelly Johnson | Atlanta Braves
5. Rickie Weeks | Milwaukee Brewers
6. Orlando Hudson | Arizona Diamondbacks
7. Jeff Kent | Los Angeles Dodgers
8. Freddy Sanchez | Pittsburgh Pirates
9. Mark DeRosa | Chicago Cubs
10. Luis Castillo | New York Mets
11. Felipe Lopez | Washington Nationals
12. Kaz Matsui | Houston Astros
13. Ray Durham | San Francisco Giants
14. Tadihito Iguchi | San Diego Padres
15. Ronnie Belliard | Washington Nationals
16. Adam Kennedy | St. Louis Cardinals
17. Mark Loretta | Houston Astros
18. Ruben Gotay | New York Mets
19. Kevin Fransden | San Francisco Giants