Writing today from the comfort of his own electric chair, Josh Illes is the creator of the new blog The Pickup Artist. I call it The Pickup Artist because I plan on analyzing interesting in-season transactions throughout the baseball year. But I also have a somewhat snarkier side to me, and many times I rant for no reason at all about not being able to understand a word that Eric Young is saying. Ok, so I may just rant about that once. I’m only kidding of course. I love E.Y.! I also consider myself somewhat of a stat head and sometimes when I look at certain things in the game of baseball just a teeny bit more closely I come up with some actual relevant knowledge. Here, my friends, is an example of just one of those times…
Chicago Cubs closer
Carlos Marmol vs. Kevin Gregg
I’m not exactly sure that Lou Piniella isn’t dramatizing this unnecessarily because he’s upset with Carlos Marmol for pitching in the WBC, but let’s assume that this position is up for grabs. There are a couple very obvious advantages to each of these guys. Marmol is the better pitcher. Kevin Gregg has more closing experience. I would think you would have to go with “better pitcher” in almost every circumstance, but what else do we have?
Some interesting background on Marmol: Up until 2003 he was an outfield prospect that couldn’t hit, and then a catcher that could throw but couldn’t hit. He, and the Cubs, decided he ought to try his hand at pitching, and to say that was a wise decision would be quite an understatement. Once he made the adjustment to pitching, his career path was to eventually be a starter for the big league team. Not until 2007 did he start working out of the bullpen. Marmol is 26 years old, and throws four pitches, including a fastball that regularly rises above 95 mph.
On the flipside, Gregg is somewhat of a journeyman type of reliever who was drafted by Oakland in 1996. The A’s were developing him as a starter, but in 2002 he signed a free agent contract with the Angels, and they quickly turned him into a reliever with the hopes that he could be a Brendan Donnelly type of setup man. I’d say that was good scouting by the Angels because that’s about what he is currently. Interestingly, though, in between then and now, he spent two years with the Marlins, and they made him their closer. He was pretty good as a closer too. He was 32 for 36 in save opportunities in 2007, although last year he had 9 blown saves in 38 chances. So he is definitely trending downward. Gregg is 31 years old, also throws four pitches and his fastball touches the low 90’s.
The latest out of Cubs camp is that Piniella is supposed to make a decision between the two of them this week. Marmol has said that he is just happy to be on the team, whether it be closing or 8th inning, or whatever. Meanwhile Gregg has been very adamant that he would like to close. It sounds like they just have very different personalities, really. Conventional wisdom here is that Marmol is the closer most of the year. When the Cubs decided to let Kerry Wood walk as a free agent, it was sort of assumed by many that they were clearing the path for Marmol to take over the job that he had earned over the past year and a half. But the Cubs signed Gregg before Wood left, which could imply that there is a lack of confidence in Marmol.
Keeping all of this in mind, from a fantasy perspective you just can’t draft Marmol as an elite closer yet. He’s very close, but he obviously will have a short leash, with Piniella not wanting to take any chances, and Gregg there waiting to take over at the slightest misstep. Gregg, meanwhile, has become a very low-cost guy with save vulture upside; perfect for everyone who hates to draft closers.
Boston Red Sox Fifth Starter
Brad Penny vs Clay Buchholz vs John Smoltz vs Justin Masterson
Ok, so I snuck Masterson in there even though the Red Sox aren’t really considering him for a rotation spot. I’m just not sure why, though. In my opinion he has the best stuff of all of them at this point in their respective careers, so why not?
Another thing, this is actually the fourth starter position that is up for grabs. Tim Wakefield will be the fifth starter and that is already set. However, I don’t want to confuse anyone (anymore anyway) so I’ll just call it the fifth starter.
We have a nice little battle going on between the other three, though. Well, really just the first two, because if Smoltz were healthy he’d have it locked down. He may be back by June, but don’t hold your breath. Penny has also been slowed by the same shoulder problems that limited to just 19 games last year, one of the worst years of his career. Buchholz, meanwhile, is the former no-hit prodigy that was supposed to have a breakout last season, but instead finished the year with just two wins.
So, in a battle between a has-been, a never-really-was, and a maybe-someday-if-he-ever-grows-up, I’m taking the never-really-was in Brad Penny. I saw enough of Buchholz last year that I can honestly say I would be shocked if he were to ever be considered a good major league pitcher. Penny meanwhile, when healthy, is at least that and sometimes more. If he starts 26 games, he should be able to win at least 11 of them and maybe up to 15 or so. But if Smoltz somehow makes it back, Penny will be relegated to the bullpen, as Smoltz would start.
Bottom line: Penny is your low cost, high reward guy. Buchholz is the guy you are staying away from, and Smoltz is your sleeper to stash on your DL for later on in the year.
Minnesota Twins Right Fielder
Michael Cuddyer vs Denard Span
I love the Twins this year. For all of the obvious reasons, including a very promising young pitching staff, and a dominant closer, but also because they just get it. I’ve mentioned it on my blog before, but I’ll mention it again now. They are going to have Economic Downturn Mondays (not actually what they are calling it), where they are going to price their outfield seats according to how poorly the stock market closed the Friday before. Genius, pure genius. Go Twins.
But I have to wonder when I am watching them this year, who exactly will be playing right field? Will it be the team comedian Michael Cuddyer (just listen to an interview of this guy sometime), or the young speedster Denard Span? Cuddyer was plagued by injuries last year, but until then was becoming sort of a fixture in the Twins lineup. When he went down he was replaced by Span, who came out of virtually nowhere to hit .294 with 18 steals and 6 homers in 347 at-bats.
In a perfect world, two things would happen. First, Denard Span would be able to play his natural position; center field, and secondly Michael Cuddyer would not lose his job due to injury. But Carlos Gomez will be the Twins’ center fielder, and players do, in fact, lose their jobs due to injury. I think it’s safe to say that Span has shown the Twins enough that he will be named the starter. Now the question is whether or not to try and trade Cuddyer or keep him as the backup utility guy. If I recall correctly, Cuddyer was a utility type when he first came up, able to play infield and outfield. Not sure if he would agree to go back to that, but anything is possible.
For now, I would stay away from Cuddyer altogether, but if he gets traded and gets regular PT, then he has some value in deep leagues. Span could be huge this year. Or he could regress a little. Either way, he is someone to keep an eye on and should be a good fifth outfielder in a mixed league. There’s one more thing to add to that. If Cuddyer gets traded, I would move Span up on my rankings list. The Twins would really, really have to believe in him for that to happen.
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