Crooked Pitch

I recently broke from my usual fantasy draft strategy when I took three starting pitchers prior to the 12th round. I usually will only grab one stud starting pitcher, one stud closer, and then fill out the rest of my staff in the mid to late rounds.

That being said, I took a look at average draft position over at Mock Draft Central and I wanted to see what kind of pitching staff I could put together of players who are going in the 14th round or later (157 ADP or greater). Taking into consideration that I have already splurged on a stud ace and a closer to start filling in my nine pitcher staff, here are the other seven starting pitchers that I can get in the later rounds.

1. Matt Garza | Tampa Bay Rays | 167.52 ADP - Garza will win 11 games or so for the Rays and should have an ERA in the 3.70 to 3.90 range with 150+ strikeouts. That’s nice for the 14th round.
2. Kevin Slowey | Minnesota Twins | 173.37 ADP - Taken in the 15th round Slowey is good for 12 wins or so and should approach 140 strikeouts. He’ll also help out with a sub 3.75 ERA.
3. Jair Jurrjens | Atlanta Braves | 182.82 ADP - Jurrjens is a 16th round pick and should win 11 games and strike out 125 or so. His ERA will stay below 4.00.
4. Justin Duchscherer | Oakland Athletics | 188.37 ADP - Also a 16th round pick, Duchscherer will really help your teams ERA as he’ll probably post under 3.25 in ‘09. He’ll also win 10 games and strike out 100.
5. Ted Lilly | Chicago Cubs | 190.10 ADP - 12 wins, a 3.80 to 3.90 ERA and 175 strikeouts would be great from Lilly in the 16th round.
6. Chien-Ming Wang | New York Yankees | 193.16 ADP - Wang should give you 12-13 wins and will keep his ERA well under 4.00. He’s not going to help with strikeouts much, but in the 17th round that’s ok.
7. John Maine | New York Mets | 229.22 ADP - Take Maine in the 20th round and you could get 10 wins, a 3.95 ERA or so, and 125 strikeouts.

If you’ll notice I had two criteria that needed to be met to land on this list. You must be projected to win 10+ games and your ERA needed to be under 4.00. If I had relaxed those standards a bit, look who else could have popped onto this list.

• Aaron Cook | Colorado Rockies | 174.23 ADP - 10+ wins but his ERA will be above 4.00.
• Oliver Perez | New York Mets | 229.25 ADP - 10 wins, an ERA above 4.00, but 175+ strikeouts in the 20th round. Wow!
• Mike Pelfrey | New York Mets | 206.23 ADP - 12 wins and 125+ strikeouts.
• Ulbaldo Jimenez | Colorado Rockies | 229.77 ADP - Another 160+ strikeouts in the 20th round.
• Mark Buehrle | Chicago White Sox | 224.55 ADP - This 19th round guy should win 12 games and strike out 130.

Minnesota Twins hurler Kevin Slowey and Tampa Bay reliever Grant Balfour seem to have been able to overcome names that shouldn’t lend well to Major League pitchers. But, it looks like Cincinnati’s Homer Bailey isn’t so lucky.

Bailey has been at the top of the Reds prospect list for years now. That might not be the case any more as he had a very rough 2008 season, both in the minors and at the big league level.

In 19 minor league starts, Bailey went 4-7 with a 4.77 ERA. He gave up ten home runs in 111.1 innings and had a 2.08 (96:46) strikeout to walk ratio. In his eight starts at the Major League level, Bailey went 0-6 with a 7.93 ERA. He gave up eight home runs in 36.1 innings of work and had a 1.05 (18:17) strikeout to walk ratio. Hitters bolstered their batting averages against Bailey as he registered a .378 batting average against at the big league level.

Now, the first thing most Bailey supporters will say right here is that he’s only 22-years-old. “Give the kid a break!”. While there is some legitimacy to that statement, let me tell you why, from a fantasy point of view, Bailey shouldn’t be given any more chances.

Homer Bailey just isn’t progressing as a pitcher. At 22-years-old you expect a kid to take some lumps. But, Bailey is getting worse as time goes by. Take a look at this:

• His Minor League ERA in 2007 was 3.82 in 14 starts. It was 4.77 in 2008 in 19 starts.
• Minor League hitters hit .281 against him in 2008, but only .229 in 2007.
• His MLB ERA ballooned from 5.76 in 2007 to 7.93 in 2008.
• He averaged giving up one home run per start in 2008, but only one every three starts in 2007 at the Major League level.
• And, as mentioned above, Major League hitters are hitting 121 points better against him in 2008 (.378) than they were in 2007 (.257).

When it comes to your fantasy baseball team, Homer Bailey should only be on your roster if you’re in a deep keeper league. And even in deep keeper leagues, I can rattle off many players who might be better options in 2009 who are the same age as Bailey and in similar situations (same age, not superstars yet like Longoria or Cueto, etc.) Players like Pablo Sandoval, Eric Hurley, Matt Harrison, Carlos Gonzalez, and Gio Gonzalez could all see better fantasy 2009’s than Homer Bailey.

Until Bailey shows that he can live up to expectations (and I supposed I should have said if instead of until), Bailey is better left to some other fantasy GM to take a chance on.

Update (10/23/2008 10:41 AM) : Reds beat writer John Fay answered a Homer Bailey question in his blog post today and stated that Bailey could be headed to the bullpen with the log jam of starting pitching talent on the Reds roster. That would surely kill Bailey’s fantasy value unless he took earned the closer’s job.

Today’s pitch count is 6.

1. Not that he’s on many fantasy baseball rosters, except for maybe the deepest of AL-only leagues, but Luke Hochevar left the game tonight with an undisclosed rib cage injury. Not to scream out only bad news about Royals baseball, you could do a lot worse than Mike Aviles for you shortstop or middle infield needs. He had two hits tonight and is hitting .320 over 262 at-bats.
2. Note to American League pitchers. You might want to rethink your strategy of walking Big Papi to get to Youk. Kevin Youkilis popped a two-run home run tonight, and drove in another run in the eigth after David Ortiz was intentionally walked. In the last week Youk is .364/.440/.955 with 8 runs scored, 3 homers, and 8 RBI.
3. A.J. Burnett was 5-0 over the last month with a 3.94 ERA going into tonight’s game. To say he continued to pitch well is an understatement. He threw eight strong innings allowing five hits and only one earned. He also struck out 13 batters while only walking one. Strong stuff!!
4. Since we’re on the subject of strong pitching performances tonight, let’s look at Rich Harden’s 10 strikeout night. He threw seven innings and only allowed two hits. He didn’t give up any runs or walk anyone. Harden is averaging 8.42 strikeouts per outing over his last seven starts, or 1.40 strikeouts per inning. It look as if pushing his start back so that Harden could pitch in cooler weather was a superb idea.
5. Tigers 4th outfielder Matt Joyce belted two home runs tonight and could start seeing more playing time. Also, don’t be surprised if he gets moved higher in the batting order (he currently hits 7th) when he plays.
6. Let’s add Kevin Slowey to the list of great pitching performances tonight. He struck out 12 and walked none in his seven innings of work. He only gave up one earned run and five hits tonight while earning his tenth win of the season.

Here is a review of this weeks best pickups as reviewed on Daily Roto Pickups. I will supply one from each of the following positions at my weekly review here on Crooked Pitch (C, CI, MI, OF, SP and RP). I will include their current availability that may have changed since my initial review. The reviews are how I view the player today. We have also added some players reviews, injury reviews, Pitcher F/X and prospect reviews at Daily Roto Pickups, so check it out.

C – Chris Coste- Another season and the Phillies have trouble with a starting catcher hitting. Now they are counting on career minor leaguer Chris Coste who has actually played quite well as a fill in for the Phillies the past 2 seasons. If he continues to bat well he could gain enough at bats to be of use in 2 catcher leagues. I would not drop anything for him, but an injury move to DL that opens a spot could be a good move.

He is currently owned in 11% of leagues.

CI – Chad Tracy - Seems like so long ago when Tracy was ready to top 30 homers in 2006 after a great year in 2005. Although he had more at bats he dropped back to 20 homers and then has not been healthy since. He appears healthy now and he seems to have his power swing with 2 homers so far. For now with injuries he has full time at bats and is worth using. He also has eligibility at 1B, 3B and will have OF very soon.

He is only owned in 14% of CBS leagues.

MI – Ian Stewart - In my keeper league I had Chase Utley from 2004-2007 once he got the full time job. I think in three years I would be holding Stewart the same way if he keeps 2B eligibility. The problem here is that Stewart can’t keep playing there year round as his defense is not good enough. I believe he is now worth a pickup in all leagues as a 2B for this year and keeper leagues should hope he gets those 20 games for next year.

He is only owned in 33% of CBS leagues.

OF – Andre Ethier - What a mess the dodgers are in the OF. They have signed two of the worst OF’s the past 2 years and continue to play them over better talent. Ethier has had 2 very good years and then gets to split time with Pierre. Thankfully Jones has been put on the DL and Ethier is starting. He is a good fill in or 4th or 5th OF.

He is only owned in 48% of CBS leagues.

SP – Kevin Slowey - He wasn’t quiet as dominant last night as his last start, but I still think he will be a positive asset to your team. He has very good control and pitches more to contact. His stats before last night were a bit ahead of what you should expect, but he is worth owning in mixed leagues.

He is owned in 51% of leagues.

RP – Dan Wheeler - Another week another closer change. This is why spending high picks on more than one closer in most leagues is not a good strategy. If he is available you should pick him up. Also this is good timing if you had Acosta or Soriano. I wouldn’t drop Soriano yet as Smoltz is changing his arm angle to deal with pain. That is never good, so bench him if you can and get Wheeler.

They are only owned in 36% as of this morning on CBS.