Crooked Pitch

Today’s pitch count is 15.

1. Closer by committee situations are never good in terms of fantasy baseball. That’s not stopping Tampa Bay from utilizing the strategy while Troy Percival is injured. Last night J.P. Howell got his second save of the year and R.J. Anderson wrote a post yesterday stating that Howell has some pretty exciting numbers. Better numbers in some regards then Papelbon and Rivera, to name a few.
2. You don’t see this very often. Both pitchers in last night’s Cincinnati versus St. Louis game pitched a complete game. Aaron Harang took the loss giving up three earned and striking out four. Chris Carpenter won his fourth game and has an ERA of 0.71 in six starts this season. He’s struck out 31 batters in 38 innings of work and only walked five.
3. David Wright stole his 13th base yesterday and is looking like he’s going wild on the base paths like he did in 2007 when he swiped 34. Unfortunately, he’s only jacked three home runs in the Mets’ new Grand Canyon like ballpark. Wright’s HR/F ratio of 5.8% is miserably low and show rise bringing his home run total up soon. But don’t look for him to approach 30 homers this season. With a hit rate of 44.4% I’m not even sure that his .326 batting average is safe. When his hit rate normalizes back towards his normal 34.7% we might see a huge drop in his average. Consider yourself warned.
4. Andrew McCutchen had a nice major league debut yesterday. He went 2-for-4 scoring three times and stealing a base. He’s owned in 13% of Yahoo! leagues right now but that number is sure to rise shortly. He’s NL-only worthy right now and you may consider taking a mixed-league flier on him too, especially in keeper leagues.

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I’d like to welcome Hans Horn from The View From The Dugout. Hans took me up on an offer to write a guest post. He’s also a first generation American, loved baseball at an early age and grew up teaching himself about the all aspects of game. Whether debating the importance of a thinking catcher, analyzing peripherals to uncover a great sleeper, or just taking in a pitchers duel with a dog and a beer, he enjoys it all.

Where have you gone David Ortiz? Can the protection of Manny “I’m On Fertility Medication” Ramirez really have been that big an impact on your game? Last I checked, Kevin Youkilis is hitting.

That Ortiz has shown no power to date is well known. He has yet to hit his first home run of the year. His On-Base Percentage is higher (.338) than his Slugging Percentage (.328). And he’s hit almost as many Infield Fly Balls (9) as he has Doubles (10). This is not the Big Papi we are used to.

But a closer look at the way teams are pitching him and how he is responding is equally shocking. In his most productive years, 2005-2007, Ortiz saw fastballs 56.9%, 54.6%, and 51.9% of the time. This year, he’s seeing the heat 54.5% of the time. The difference is where they are throwing them.
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I’m way behind here on publishing the commentary from each selection in our slow mock draft. To refresh your memory, go back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2, and round 3.

• Round 4 : Pick 1(37) - @seniorcircuit - C.C. Sabathia - I was surprised and pleased to find Sabathia still on the board as my pick, for the beginning of the 4th round.  He was the 3rd pitcher taken overall behind Santana and Lincecum, which was different than the outcome of the poll on crookedpitch.com, asking who should be the first pitcher taken in drafts, found here. I have faith in him being a workhorse this season and settling into the role as ace of the Yankees, there shouldn’t be any need for him to worry about getting traded.  Sabathia will put up 18-20 wins, 3.40 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and well over 200 strikeouts.  I am also continuing my personal run of drafting players that are on brand new teams with huge contracts.
• Round 4 : Pick 2(38) - @jasoncollette - Alex Rios - I called him as a 30/30 guy for the Fanball magazine so I’m putting my money where my mouth is. Look at the difference last year once the Jays brought Gaston in and got rid of Dembo’s hitting instruction.
• Round 4 : Pick 3(39) - @dowdyism - Ichiro Suzuki -It had been all power, all the time for my team up to this point.  It was time to get some steals in the mix, and Ichiro is the perfect fit in the fourth round.  He has been a model of consistency since entering the league, and 100 runs and a high AVG will compliment his stolen base output quite nicely.
• Round 4 : Pick 4(40) - @therotofeed - Nate McClouth - After passing on the likes of Braun and Longoria during earlier rounds in favor of players with slightly longer fantasy track records, I went ahead and took Nate McLouth with my fourth pick.  I tend to try to take “boring” picks with my first three picks in a snake draft, looking for reliability above all. By the time I get to round four, though, it’s time to seek some upside. And I think McLouth will have an even better year than last year.
• Round 4 : Pick 5(41) - @sporer - Kevin Youkilis -Here is why I don’t think the 13 home run increase from Youk was a fluke: his walk rate fell by 3% and I believe a lot of that was him going for solid pitches that he ended up being able to do a lot with earlier in the count. Known as the Greek God of Walks, I think in past seasons he was waiting for the perfect pitch or just taking a walk. To wit, he had 15 home runs after a 1-0 count against just seven in 2007. I feel like another 25+ home run season rests on Youk’s shoulders as he decides whether or not he wants to take that approach again this season. As part of that lineup, his counting stats will be excellent as well. Throw in mixed eligibility at 1B/3B and I’m pleased to land him here in the 3rd.
• Round 4 : Pick 6(42) - @tommystv - Vladimir Guerrero -I’ll admit I’m an Angels fan, and I became an Angels fan because of Vlad. With that being said, there is no one in the last seven picks that I would value more than Vlad. If Sabathia or Lincecum would have fallen I may have gone pitcher and Ichiro I would have viewed as equal, and would have been happy to maybe make a solid move on steals. Could have gone Ordonez or maybe McCann, but I’m feling good about Vlad falling to the middle of the 4th. .300 and around 30 HRs, lock it up.
• Round 4 : Pick 7(43) - @xxldaddyo - Brian McCann -Ya gotta have a catcher (or two) so why not take the best hitting catcher in all of baseball? McCann cut down on his K’s in the 2H last year while increasing his walks. Forget the 23 HR and .301 BA of last year. I’ll pencil him in for 26 HR and .310 in ‘09.
• Round 4 : Pick 8(44) - @jefeboy - Rafael Furcal -Was considering 3 players at this spot — Youkilis as the best remaining 1B, McCann as the #1 C and Furcal as the best remaining SS. The choice was simplified by my opponents. Staying with the IF strategy, gotta love the potential for contributions in 4 categories from SS. Shandler loves him this year and I love Shandler.
• Round 4 : Pick 9(45) - @fakebaseball - Dan Haren -I’ll probably be accused of reaching, but I feel that my fourth-round selection, Dan Haren, stands a good chance of matching the fantasy value of–or even outperforming–Webb, Halladay, Hamels, and Peavy in ‘09. I believe Haren will match or exceed 3.50 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 8 K/9, with an impressive win total. It can be intimidating to go against the collective wisdom of average draft position when you are significantly more positive or more negative on a player, but it’s hard to win without taking risks.
• Round 4 : Pick 10(46) - @TheRoundtable - Brandon Webb -I won’t lie to you, this goes against my personal philosophy of not drafting pitching in the first five rounds, but I’m looking at value here. Webb has been going in the third round of most drafts, and getting him towards the end of the fourth is solid value. He’s going to be close to 20 wins, is consistently around a 3.20 ERA and keep his WHIP sub-1.25 (my threshold for top pitching). I just didn’t like the options available at some of the other positions as far as grabbing them here. There are others on my radar, but I think they’ll be around on the swing and in round six as well.
• Round 4 : Pick 11(47) - @Angels2717 - Roy Halladay -I am very happy to be able to get a solid pitcher in the late 4th round.  Halladay is one of those guys you love to have as your number one pitcher on a fantasy team. I like his high strikeout capability and 17+ win capability. Glad to be able to draft him at this point.
• Round 4 : Pick 12(48) - @crookedpitch - Russell Martin - If at all possible, I wanted to grab one of the big four catchers (McCann, Martin, Soto & Mauer). Martin’s ADP is 43.4, so this is a pretty good spot to grab him. McCann already went, so the run on catchers will shortly follow (most likely accentuated by my pick here). I actually like Martin’s fantasy value better than McCann’s. McCann has more pop, but Martin’s stolen base potential and multi-position eligibility make him a more valuable fantasy option.

It’s still early, but I wanted get a current look at the first base position for every team. Designated hitters are not on this list, and players like Giambi (who hasn’t signed yet) or Billy Butler (DH on the depth chart) aren’t going to be included here until their status changes.

Here are the 2009 fantasy first base rankings.

Update [1/16/2009 10:31 PM]: Now that Michael Young has calmed down, stopped whining, and agreed to play third base, Chris Davis is firmly entrenched as the first baseman and can be added to this list. Hank Blalock has been moved down on this list accordingly.

1. Albert Pujols | St. Louis Cardinals - Dropped on draft boards last year due to injury concerns. He shouldn’t have! The numbers he put up were sick and he can do it again. As long as his elbow stays healthy. <g>
2. Ryan Howard | Philadelphia Phillies - If Howard hit north of .275 he’d be the #1 ranked player in all of fantasy baseball. But, he only hits .251 and that detracts a bit from his 48 home runs and 146 RBI. Feel good about drafting Howard’s power numbers, but get some decent average hitter to supplement later on.
3. Lance Berkman | Houston Astros - Berkman hit 88 points higher in the first half last season than he did in the second half. All his other stats followed suit. If his second half didn’t stink so badly, Berkman would have been the #2 guy here instead of Howard. Still, Berkman contributed massively in all five stat categories and there aren’t too many reasons to think he won’t do so again in 2009.
4. Mark Teixeira | New York Yankees - Power output could go up in the Big Apple. His ‘08 numbers were nothing to sneeze at. You can draft him expecting at least a repeat of last year and hope for a bit more.
5. Miguel Cabrera | Detroit Tigers - An off year in 2008 really has Cabrera low on this list. He did turn it on in the second half, so don’t fret too much over grabbing Cabrera early.
6. Adrian Gonzalez | San Diego Padres - Gonzalez finally moves up into the elite 1B area, right where his 36 home runs and 119 RBI belong.
7. Justin Morneau | Minnesota Twins - Morneau’s home run total dropped in ‘08, but he still contributed more than enough to earn runner up status in the AL MVP race. Morneau will be off the board by the second round. If he gets his power numbers back up, that’ll be a bargain.
8. Kevin Youkilis | Boston Red Sox - Youk is a .300-30-100-100 guy? He is now. And he should be for the next few years. Youk in the third round is safe. Youk in the fourth or fifth round is a steal.
9. Prince Fielder | Milwaukee Brewers - Fielder is being overvalued a bit due to his young age and high home run potential. Don’t draft him expecting 40+ dingers, but know that he could possibly get there.
10. Carlos Delgado | New York Mets - His power numbers were there for most of the year, but Delgado really increased his batting average in the second half. At almost 37, he’s aging, but he still has lots of fight in him.
11. Aubrey Huff | Baltimore Orioles - Huff returned back to his early 2000’s form with 32 home runs and 100+ RBI in ‘08. You can’t grab him too early as nobody is sure if this was a return to normal, or if 30 home runs is an outlier. But once the big boys are off of the board at first base, Huff is the next logical choice.
12. Jorge Cantu | Florida Marlins - With Jacobs gone, Cantu will slide to the first base side for 2009. He approached 30 home runs and 100 RBI in 2008 and could do the same in ‘09. Don’t forget that 2009 will be Cantu’s 27-year-old year. Could a break out be imminent?
13. Chris Davis | Texas Rangers - In 295 at-bats last season Davis belted 17 home runs and drove in 55; two reasons for great optimism for 2009. However, he had a strike out rate of 29.8% and a hit rate of 35.3% which might foretell bumpy roads ahead. He’s being hyped up on a grand scale this off-season so you’re going to have to overpay to get him.
14. Derrek Lee | Chicago Cubs - Lee isn’t getting back to his 2005 form ever again. Expect something more like 20-25 homers, 80-90 RBI, and a few stolen bases to keep him in the top 15.
15. Carlos Pena | Tampa Bay Rays - Pena’s power potential is what keeps him ranked this high amongst first basemen. Because it sure isn’t his .247 batting average. You’d better have some other players to boost your batting average if you grab Pena.
16. Joey Votto | Cincinnati Reds - Votto should back up a fantastic rookie season with an even better ‘09 campaign. Votto could even bat north of .300 and blast 30 homers. If that happens he’s a huge steal here.
17. Mike Jacobs | Kansas City Royals - See Carlos Pena. Jacobs is devalued even more due to the fact that there are so many first basemen in Kansas City. A slump for too long won’t be allowed. Nor will his inability to hit lefties.
18. Adam LaRoche | Pittsburgh Pirates - Missed out on 100 at-bats which may have kept him from the 30 home run mark. He has fewer base runners to drive in than most of the big guys at 1B and he can’t hit lefties. So, this is about as high as LaRoche goes among first basemen.
19. James Loney | Los Angeles Dodgers - Loney’s power isn’t coming along like many expected but his batting average is keeping him somewhat valuable in fantasy circles. He’s still only going to be 25 this season so there’s still time to grow. 10 - 15 home runs and a batting average approaching .300 is what you should expect.
20. Ryan Garko | Cleveland Indians - Garko’s 14 home runs and 90 RBI come in just 495 at-bats. Until Garko approaches the 600 at-bat mark he’s never going to progress further as a fantasy option.
21. Casey Kotchman | Atlanta Braves - Kotchman is only going to hit you 10 - 15 home runs and approach the .280 mark in batting average. There’s not much upside here.
22. Lyle Overbay | Toronto Blue Jays - Overbay’s days of 20+ dingers and a .300 batting average are over. He’s a serviceable .270 hitter with home runs totals in the low teens, at best.
23. Paul Konerko | Chicago White Sox - Konerko’s power numbers and batting average are declining rapidly. 2009 might be his final chance to get back on track towards fantasy relevance, but don’t pay too much to find out if he does.
24. Todd Helton | Colorado Rockies - Helton’s age caught up with him as he spent a lot of time on the disabled list for the first time in his career. If healthy, he’s more like a .280 hitter with 15 or so home runs. If…
25. Daric Barton | Oakland Athletics - Barton has never shown the power potential, either in the minors or at the MLB level, that people seem to expect from him. Don’t draft him thinking it’s going to somehow materialize now.
26. Chad Tracy | Arizona Diamondbacks - Tracy might not be the best option at first base for the Diamondbacks, but that’s what they’re rolling with in ‘09. You shouldn’t.
27. Kendry Morales | Los Angeles Angels - With Teixeira out Morales is going to get his chance at first base. There is some upside here as he’s shown power in the minors, but he shouldn’t be anywhere close to the middle or top of your draft list.
28. Nick Johnson | Washington Nationals - Johnson, when healthy, is a viable candidate as a #2 first baseman. But, he’s not healthy, and hasn’t been for a while.
29. Hank Blalock | Texas Rangers - If only he could stay healthy and reach 400+ at-bats, something he hasn’t done since 2006. Don’t spend too much speculating though.
30. Bryan Lahair | Seattle Mariners - Lahair isn’t really a long term option for the Mariners and he shouldn’t any kind of an option for your fantasy team.
31. Travis Ishikawa | San Francisco Giants - The Giants are looking at the free agent market for anyone that they can bring in so Ishikawa won’t have to be kept on the opening day roster. Enough said.

Here are the fantasy baseball rankings for the top ten third basemen for the 2008 season. I will also list the predictions from the pre-season at the bottom of this post for comparison.

1. David Wright, New York Mets - Wright is just a man among boys at the third base position. He does it all! 115 runs | 33 HR | 124 RBI | 15 SB | .302
2. Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees - It’s just nasty to consider 2008 an off year fantasy speaking for A-Rod. He’s still got first round talent. 104 runs | 35 HR | 103 RBI | 18 SB | .302
3. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers - The elite fantasy third basemen used to only be A-Rod and Wright. Now, you can add Braun’s name to that list, if only he were going to play 3B anymore. 92 runs | 37 HR | 106 RBI | 14 SB | .285
4. Aubrey Huff, Baltimore Orioles - Huff might be too old to keep these numbers up going forward. But, 2008 was one heck of a ride. 96 runs | 32 HR | 108 RBI | 4 SB | .304
5. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers - Fourteen games was just enough to qualify at third base. His numbers are so good he’d be on any top ten list, no matter what position. 85 runs | 37 HR | 127 RBI | 1 SB | .292
6. Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox - Youkilis really boosted his power output in 2008. “The Greek God of Walks” is now the total package. 91 runs | 29 HR | 115 RBI | 3 SB | .312
7. Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves - His flirtation with .400 didn’t last as long as he’d hoped. But, he proved, once again, that he’s one of the best pure hitters in the game. 82 runs | 22 HR | 75 RBI | 4 SB | .364
8. Aramis Ramirez, Chicago Cubs - Ramirez might not be hitting as many home runs as in years past, but his run production is still among the best. 97 runs | 27 HR | 111 RBI | 2 SB | .289
9. Jorge Cantu, Florida Marlins - Cantu had a breakout year in 2008, and could get better. 92 runs | 29 HR | 95 RBI | 6 SB | .277
10. Melvin Mora, Baltimore Orioles - Had a fantastic second half, but late season injuries and his age could hurt his draft status next season. 77 runs | 23 HR | 104 RBI | 3 SB | .285

Below is the pre-season ranking list, for comparison.

2008 American League Fantasy Baseball Third Base Rankings

1. Alex Rodriguez | New York Yankees
2. Miguel Cabrera | Detroit Tigers
3. Mike Lowell | Boston Red Sox
4. Chone Figgins | Los Angeles Angels
5. Adrian Beltre | Seattle Mariners
6. Troy Glaus | Toronto Blue Jays
7. Josh Fields | Chicago White Sox
8. Alex Gordon | Kansas City Royals
9. Hank Blalock | Texas Rangers
10. Evan Longoria | Tampa Bay Rays
11. Eric Chavez | Oakland Athletics
12. Melvin Mora | Baltimore Orioles
13. Casey Blake | Cleveland Indians
14. Mike Lamb | Minnesota Twins
15. Akinora Iwamura | Tampa Bay Rays
16. Brandon Inge | Detroit Tigers
17. Joe Crede | Chicago White Sox
18. Brandon Wood | Los Angeles Angels

2008 National League Fantasy Baseball Third Base Rankings

1. David Wright | New York Mets
2. Ryan Braun | Milwaukee Brewers
3. Aramis Ramirez | Chicago Cubs
4. Garrett Atkins | Colorado Rockies
5. Chipper Jones | Atlanta Braves
6. Ryan Zimmerman | Washington Nationals
7. Kevin Kouzmanoff | San Diego Padres
8. Edwin Encarnacion | Cincinnati Reds
9. Troy Glaus | St. Louis Cardinals
10. Ty Wigginton | Houston Astros
11. Mark Reynolds | Arizona Diamondbacks
12. Pedro Feliz | Philadelphia Phillies
13. Andy LaRoche | Los Angeles Dodgers
14. Jose Bautista | Pittsburgh Pirates
15. Jose Castillo | Florida Marlins

Here are the fantasy baseball rankings for the top ten first basemen for the 2008 season. I will also list the predictions from the pre-season at the bottom of this post for comparison.

1. Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals - No doubt about who should top this list. Pujols is head and shoulders above the rest of a very good group of hitters. 100 runs | 37 HR | 116 RBI | 7 SB | .357
2. Lance Berkman, Houston Astros - Berkman hit 88 points better in the first half than in the second half. He also hit 15 more home runs in the first half than he did in the second half. Even with his poorer showing after the All-Star break, he still finished with monster numbers. 114 runs | 29 HR | 106 RBI | 18 SB | .312
3. Mark Teixeira, Los Angeles Angels - Couldn’t bring enough to push the Angels past the Red Sox in the playoffs, but he sure did help a lot of fantasy teams this season. 102 runs | 33 HR | 121 RBI | 2 SB | .308
4. Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies - I tried really hard not to place Howard this high due to his low .251 batting average. But, I couldn’t drop him any lower than the fourth spot due to his monster home run and RBI totals. 105 runs | 48 HR | 146 RBI | 1 SB | .251
5. Aubrey Huff, Baltimore Orioles - Hadn’t hit this well since 2003. The multi-position eligibility was nice too. 96 runs | 32 HR | 108 RBI | 4 SB | .304
6. Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox - Youk really boosted his power output in 2008. “The Greek God of Walks” is now the total package. 91 runs | 29 HR | 115 RBI | 3 SB | .312
7. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers - Cabrera needed a 30% increase in offensive production in the second half to make this top ten list. But, that’s why they play 162 games. 85 runs | 37 HR | 127 RBI | 1 SB | .292
8. Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres - Gonzalez, very quietly, keeps upping his power production each year. It’s his batting average drop that kept him at #8 on this list and not in the top five. 103 runs | 36 HR | 119 RBI | 0 SB | .279
9. Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins - You get a slight drop off in home runs from Morneau compared to the rest of the guys on this list. But, the other offensive categories make up for it. 97 runs | 23 HR | 129 RBI | 0 SB | .300
10. Carlos Delgado, New York Mets - Delgado barely edged out Prince Fielder for the final spot on this list. He bounced back nicely from his poor showing in 2007 and had his best numbers since 2003. 96 runs | 38 HR | 115 RBI | 1 SB | .271

Below is the pre-season list for comparison.

2008 American League Fantasy Baseball First Base Rankings

1. Justin Morneau | Minnesota Twins
2. Carlos Pena | Tampa Bay Rays
3. Paul Konerko | Chicago White Sox
4. Carlos Guillen | Detroit Tigers
5. Kevin Youkilis | Boston Red Sox
6. Ryan Garko | Cleveland Indians
7. Richie Sexson | Seattle Mariners
8. Casey Kotchman | Los Angeles Angels
9. Kevin Millar | Baltimore Orioles
10. Billy Butler | Kansas City Royals
11. Dan Johnson | Oakland Athletics
12. Jason Giambi | New York Yankees
13. Lyle Overbay | Totonto Blue Jays
14. Ben Broussard | Texas Rangers

2008 National League Fantasy Baseball First Base Rankings

1. Albert Pujols | St. Louis Cardinals
2. Ryan Howard | Philadelphia Phillies
3. Prince Fielder | Milwaukee Brewers
4. Mark Teixeira | Atlanta Braves
5. Lance Berkman | Houston Astros
6. Derrek Lee | Chicago Cubs
7. Adrian Gonzalez | San Diego Padres
8. Todd Helton | Colorado Rockies
9. Carlos Delgado | New York Mets
10. James Loney | Los Angeles Dodgers
11. Adam LaRoche | Pittsburgh Pirates
12. Dmitri Young | Washington Nationals
13. Conor Jackson | Arizona Diamondbacks
14. Joey Votto | Cincinnati Reds
15. Rich Aurilia | San Francisco Giants
16. Mike Jacobs | Florida Marlins

Today’s pitch count is 6.

1. Not that he’s on many fantasy baseball rosters, except for maybe the deepest of AL-only leagues, but Luke Hochevar left the game tonight with an undisclosed rib cage injury. Not to scream out only bad news about Royals baseball, you could do a lot worse than Mike Aviles for you shortstop or middle infield needs. He had two hits tonight and is hitting .320 over 262 at-bats.
2. Note to American League pitchers. You might want to rethink your strategy of walking Big Papi to get to Youk. Kevin Youkilis popped a two-run home run tonight, and drove in another run in the eigth after David Ortiz was intentionally walked. In the last week Youk is .364/.440/.955 with 8 runs scored, 3 homers, and 8 RBI.
3. A.J. Burnett was 5-0 over the last month with a 3.94 ERA going into tonight’s game. To say he continued to pitch well is an understatement. He threw eight strong innings allowing five hits and only one earned. He also struck out 13 batters while only walking one. Strong stuff!!
4. Since we’re on the subject of strong pitching performances tonight, let’s look at Rich Harden’s 10 strikeout night. He threw seven innings and only allowed two hits. He didn’t give up any runs or walk anyone. Harden is averaging 8.42 strikeouts per outing over his last seven starts, or 1.40 strikeouts per inning. It look as if pushing his start back so that Harden could pitch in cooler weather was a superb idea.
5. Tigers 4th outfielder Matt Joyce belted two home runs tonight and could start seeing more playing time. Also, don’t be surprised if he gets moved higher in the batting order (he currently hits 7th) when he plays.
6. Let’s add Kevin Slowey to the list of great pitching performances tonight. He struck out 12 and walked none in his seven innings of work. He only gave up one earned run and five hits tonight while earning his tenth win of the season.