Crooked Pitch

Tuesday night was a terrible night for big-named players and injuries.

• Adrian Gonzalez tried to leg out a triple and hurt his knee sliding into third base. Nobody knows the extent of the injury as he’ll be evaluated on Wednesday.
• Mark DeRosa lasted all of three games for the Cardinals before getting injured. He left Tuesday’s game with a left wrist injury.
• Grady Sizemore is going to play through pain for the rest of the season and most likely have off-season surgery to repair his left elbow. So much for Sizemore being a buy-low candidate for the second half.

It’s time for another installment of movers and shakers on the Mock Draft Central Average Draft Position Report.

Headed Up

• Andy Pettitte | New York Yankees | +7.7% - You knew the Pettitte re-signing would begin his slow rise in ADP. This is his second consecutive week with a 7+ percentage point rise. He’s now into the 23rd round at 276.76 from 298.00.
• Ryan Braun | Milwaukee Brewers | +7.1% - Braun is firmly entrenching himself in the first round as he goes from an ADP of 10.41 to 9.72.
• Ian Kinsler | Texas Rangers | +4.1% - There has been much debate so far about which second baseman (Utley, Pedroia or Kinsler) deserves to be the highest ranked at his position. This week it was Kinsler as he went from an ADP of 11.65 to 11.19 and was the only one of the three to rise in ADP. (for what it’s worth, I disagree and rank Kinsler third out of these guys)
• Grant Balfour | Tampa Bay Rays | +3.8% - Balfour just penned a one-year contract with the Rays and had a 1.54 ERA with 82 strikeouts in 58.1 innings of work. He’s a superb set-up man and a must own if your league uses holds. He’s up to a 290.84 ADP from 301.86.
• Matt Wieters | Baltimore Orioles | +3.2% - Wieters climbed last week from a mid-11th-round 127.36 to an early 11th round 123.45. All without seeing a Major League pitch.
• Tim Lincecum | San Francisco Giants | +3.0% - Lincecum has almost climbed into the second round as he’s sitting at 26.05 from an ADP of 26.82. Santana is still the highest ranked pitcher on the board at 18.58, but I’m not sure that I wouldn’t take Lincecum before him.

Other noteables: James Shields (+2.0%) and Brandon Lyon (+2.7%)

Headed Down

• Melvin Mora | Baltimore Orioles | -6.1% - Is it Mora’s age (36) or the Orioles addition of Wiggington that had fantasy GM’s selecting Mora later in mock drafts? His ADP dropped from a 17th round 204.14 to a 19th round 217.34.
• Matt Holliday | Oakland A’s | -6.0% - Holliday moved last week from an ADP of 13.37 to 14.23. It looks as if he’s completely out of contention for a first round selection, which is probably as it should be since he’s no longer hitting in Coors Field.
• Mike Jacobs | Kansas City Royals | -5.6% - A crowded Royals first base depth chart and his inability to het lefties migt have spawned his drop to an ADP in the 22nd round of 263.05 from the 21st round 248.37 he was at last week.
• Ubaldo Jimenez | Colorado Rockies | -4.2% - Jimenez just rose 5.6% last week after signing a new deal and now drops out of the 23rd round to 282.36 from 270.55 this week. WTF???
• Chien-Ming Wang | New York Yankees | -3.2% - He’s not a strikeout threat or a very good base runner, but Wang, if healthy, should perform better than his ADP of 215.35 (19th round) predicts. Last week he fell from 208.37 (18th round).
• John Smoltz | Boston Red Sox | -3.0 - Smoltz fell from an ADP of 260.48 to 268.64 last week. Are February mock drafters finally realizing that Smoltz is in no hurry to hit the mound in Fenway? The Red Sox are going to make 125% sure that Smoltz is healthy and only care about him helping out in the stretch run and the playoffs.

Other noteables: Ryan Howard (-5.1%), Jason Giambi (-4.4%), Mark DeRosa (-4.0%), Alex Rodriguez (-3.8%), Jorge Cantu (-3.1%) and Justin Upton (-3.0).

It was a nice, calm, peaceful day in the twitterverse yesterday when @jasoncollette unknowingly kicked off a name calling, eye raking slap fest that had all the intensity of a sorority house pillow fight. Well, it might not have been that interesting, but when Jason said

Why is it that Jose Lopez is going later in mocks right now than Aviles, Uggla, and DeRosa? Lopez is going as a solid late rd value lately.

the battle began between @theroundtable, @fakebaseball and myself.

To make a very long story short(er), After multiple people got involved in the slug fest, the gauntlet was thrown and I was challenged to rank these mid-tier second basemen and to back up my rankings. Oh, and I also had to throw in Kelly Johnson too. So, here’s what I think about Jose Lopez, Mike Aviles, Dan Uggla, Mark DeRosa, and Kelly Johnson.

First off, let’s take a look at their numbers from last season.

• Lopez - .297/.322/.443 17HR, 89RBI, 80R, 6SB in 644 at-bats
• Aviles - .325/.354/.480 10HR, 51RBI, 68R, 8SB in 416 at-bats
• Uggla  - .260/.360/.514 32HR, 92RBI, 97R, 5SB in 531 at-bats
• DeRosa - .285/.376/.481 21HR, 87RBI, 103R, 6SB in 505 at-bats
• Johnson - .287/.349/.446 12HR, 69RBI, 86R, 11SB in 547 at-bats

Just looking at last years numbers their rankings look something like Uggla, DeRosa, Lopez, Johnson and then Aviles.

But now, let’s take a look at some 2009 projections and their current ADP on Mock Draft Central.

• Lopez - .282/14/74/69/5 and has a current ADP of 166.31 (late 14th round)
• Aviles - .285/12/63/72/8 and has a current ADP of 152.97 (mid 13th round)
• Uggla - .257/26/83/94/5 and has a current ADP of 61.89 (early 6th round)
• DeRosa - .274/14/70/73/4 and has a current ADP of 188.04 (mid to late 16th round)
• Johnson - .280/14/64/80/9 and has a current ADP of 219.98 (early 19th round)

You can see that mock drafters think Uggla should go first, then Aviles, Lopez, DeRosa and finally Johnson. However, by just these projections I think Uggla should go first. After Uggla you’d take Johnson, Lopez, Aviles and finally DeRosa. But, I’m not stopping with last years numbers and projections. I want to delve deeper into some numbers from these guys.

I want to look at some trends for these guys. Aviles was a rookie last year so he only has that year to go off of (unless I use MiLB numbers, which I won’t). Johnson only has two consecutive years to look at, so his trend data isn’t as solid as I’d like. But, the other three guys have three solid years of data from which I’d like to look at walk rate, strikeout rate, and home run to flyball ratios.

• Lopez - His BB% improved from ‘07, but his ‘08 4.0 BB% isn’t as high as his ‘06 of 4.1%. His K%, however, is trending fantastically from 13.3% in 2006 to 12.2% in ‘07, to 10.4% last year. His HR/F ratio is also headed in the right direction. His 8.2% in ‘08 look a lot better than his 6.4% in ‘07 and his 5.7% in ‘06. I’d like to see Lopez walk a bit more, but his strikeout rate looks really good and so does his HR/F. His fly ball rate even went up after the All-Star break last season. More fly balls + an upward trending HR/F ratio = good things.
• Aviles - Had a 4.1% walk rate, a 13.8% strikeout rate and a 8.3% HR/F ratio. Other than a weird August where he hit dramatically fewer fly balls and fewer home runs, Aviles stayed pretty steady with these ratios all season. It’ll be interesting to see if he can keep that up in ‘09.
• Uggla - He’s walking a lot more (12.7% in ‘08 versus 7.3% in ‘06), striking out a lot more (32.2% in ‘08 versus 20.1% in ‘06) and his HR/F ratio which was pretty consistent between ‘06 and ‘07 (13%) jumped a lot to 18.4% in ‘08. It may be unrealistic to think he’ll keep that HR/F ratio in the high teens, and his K% is starting to scare me.
• DeRosa - Only one of these three ratios trend in the same direction for DeRosa over the last three years. His BB% is continually rising from 7.8% in ‘06 to 12.0% in ‘08. But his K% and HR/F bounce around like a pinball. His K% went down in ‘07, but back up to 21.0% in ‘08. His HR/F ratio went down in ‘07 but back up in ‘08 to 13.7%.
• Johnson - His BB% dropped in ‘08 to 8.7% from 13.2% in ‘07. His K% also dropped from 22.5% to 20.7% and unfortunately his HR/F ratio dropped from 10.3% to 7.6%. The pop seems to have left Johnson’s b at.

In concluding this assessment, I want to add a look into their contact rates and their hit rates to get a little more info into plate discipline and any luck factors that might be in play. I’ll also mention in what round these guys should be taken. Also pay attention that from this point forward, they’ll be ranked.

1. Dan Uggla - His power potential makes him the obvious number one on this list. But, I’ve never been a big fan of his batting average. Also take  into account that he has a miserable 67.7% contact rate and was a little bit lucky with his batted balls (32.3% hit rate) and Uggla’s batting average could get worse. I think his HR/F ratio will come back down (in fact it dramatically dropped in the second half last year) which could result in a power drop off as well. Because of these fears, I wouldn’t take a chance on Uggla until the 8th round. And I might even pass him by completely in favor of the number two and three guys on this list.
2. Jose Lopez - I love the way his fly ball ratio trended upward an extra 4% in the second half last year. If he can keep that going in addition to his natural HR/F improvements from year to year you might see 20-25 home runs out of Lopez. He also has the best contact rate (89.5%) of anyone on this list and his hit rate was pretty close to normal at 31.1%. In addition to his extra power potential, Lopez has the tools to hit .300. Feel comfortable taking him in the 10th to early 12th rounds.
3. Kelly Johnson - Johnson’s power seems to be fading away, but I still like his double digit potential in both steals and home runs. He has tendancies of being very streaky, which makes him a more valuable roto hitter than a head-to-head guy. And his contact rate (79.3%) and hit rate (34.4%) don’t lend well to him approaching the .300 level at all. Johnson shouldn’t be taken until the 14-15th rounds, maybe later.
4. Mark DeRosa - This guy had a career power year at age 33 (last year). If you pay for those numbers and expect them to be around in 2009, you’re crazy. His contact rate is too low (79.0%) to make a run at .293 again and while his hit rate (32.5%) is right in line with his career average, there are way too many chances for DeRosa to bomb in ‘09. He’s not a safe pick any more and will be moving to third base in Cleveland (which will kill his value in 2010). If he’s around in the 17th round grab him as a flier, but have other options in mind if he’s not the hitter he was in ‘08.
5. Mike Aviles - What a rookie season this guy had. And those of you grabbing him in the 13th round right now are paying way too much for him. He had a hit rate of 35.9% last season, which is incredibly high. When that rate normalizes Aviles’ batting average will suffer. With a contact rate of 86.1% it won’t drop down to Uggla’ish levels, but what good are his other numbers if he brings a .285 batting average to the table? Draft Aviles in the 17th to 18th round knowing that he can’t possibly repeat his ‘08 numbers in 2009.

We’re starting double digit round numbers now. Take a look back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2,  round 3, round 4, round 5, round 6, round 7, round 8 and round 9.

• Round 10 : Pick 1(109) - @seniorcircuit - Mark DeRosa - One of my favorite guys to target this year in the draft because of his position eligibility, according to most league rules he should be eligible at 2B, 3B, and OF. But I don’t see him increasing his power numbers this season just being a steady producer at one of your infield. He’s the type of guy who won’t be an elite option at a position but won’t hurt you in the long run. Expect 85/17/80/.280 from him in 2009.
• Round 10 : Pick 2(110) - @jasoncollette - Mike Aviles - Aviles is bound to disappoint those who are expecting more of what he delivered last year but given how thin the middle infield is, the fact he qualifies at both SS and 2B make him a bit more valuable.
• Round 10 : Pick 3(111) - @dowdyism - Jose Lopez - I missed the run on the top tier second basemen, so when some of the second grouping came off the board, I grabbed Lopez. I think many of the guys in this area are interchangeable, but I really liked Lopez’s jump in SLG% while posting a career high in AVG.
• Round 10: Pick 4(112) - @therotofeed - Mike Jacobs - I think this is the first year Jacobs hits above .280, and that he gets plenty of PT in Kansas City, which incidentally has a better team than people realize. I’m looking for 35 HR too.
• Round 10 : Pick 5(113) - @sporer - Derek Jeter - I about vomited when I made it official that I had taken two Yankees in a row, but Jeter was the right pick here. He is generally overrated to the nth degree, but he almost ended up a value pick in this league of sharks reticent to fall victim to the Yankee mystique. When you draw a ton of your value from runs and batting average, you’re no longer a glamor pick, but getting a $20ish dollar value at middle infield in the 10th round is a coup. My Jeter pick came AFTER Mike Aviles was taken… that floored me. Not that Aviles was a wrong pick, more that I was in a league with players so adept at seeing past name.
• Round 10 : Pick 6(114) - @tommystv - Edison Volquez - Amazing start and then tapered off a bit. I don’t think this is a Nomo situation he hasn’t been solved, he just tired late. Ball Park is another minus, but I think my backyard would be sufficient enough to keep that changeup within it’s confines.
• Round 10 : Pick 7(115) - @xxldaddyo - Francisco Liriano - The second year back from Tommy John surgery is when pitchers are finally healthy. Although Liriano showed some signs of life in the 2H of 08 (3.91 ERA with 6 wins in 76 IP), he’ll be ready to shine in 09.  Combined with Cy Young winner, Cliff Lee, Liriano gives my team to front end Aces to provide a wicked 1-2 punch at the top of my roto rotation. And at the end of this season, Liriano will have Twinkie fans in the Metrodome simply asking, “Johan who?”
• Round 10 : Pick 8(116) - @jefeboy - Bengie Molina - Easily a top-ten catcher, if not top five, so I’m thrilled to round out a very solid IF with the Benge. I’m going to need his HRs.
• Round 10 : Pick 9(117) - @fakebaseball - Chris Iannetta - I almost always avoid first-tier catchers in drafts because they don’t provide enough offense despite the positional scarcity. In ‘09, I have as my second tier Doumit, Iannetta, B. Molina, and Napoli, with a drop-off after that. My goal is to have both catchers in a two-C league from this tier. As Doumit and Molina were already gone by my turn in the tenth, and round 10 or later is where I feel comfortable taking a tier-2 catcher, I drafted Iannetta. He’s a potentially higher-upside C who I think could even be a lower 1st tier catcher by 2010.
• Round 10 : Pick 10(118) - @TheRoundtable - Bobby Jenks - Time to finally grab a closer. Jenks was the best and most reliable of what was left on the board. If you take a look at the fact as many as 8 jobs are time shares and others could change hands, I’ll take knowing that he will be the guy at the end of games as solace.
• Round 10 : Pick 11(119) - @Angels2717 - Johnny Damon - Damon has shown that he can play at a fairly high level but hasn’t been too consistent about it. I’m looking for a solid year out of him and hopefully consistent. He’s now playing in a very stacked Yankees lineup and hopefully he’ll be at the top of Tex and A-Rod.  I’m also looking for a high average season after picking my last OF in Dunn.
• Round 10 : Pick 12(120) - @crookedpitch - Felix Hernandez - King Felix… What to say here… On the bad side of the coin he pitches for a bad team which will make wins hard to come by. On the good side he’s a strike out monster, just notched his 3rd consecutive season of 190+ innings pitched, and is only 22-years-old.

For the most part, MLB teams are entering Spring Training with their third base position set. There are a few battles going on; Buscher versus Harris in Minnesota, Blum vesus Boone in Houston (yuck) and McPherson versus Helms in Florida. When those teams make decisions regarding the hot corner, I’ll update this list.

Also, expect Wiggington to make a splash on this list when he signs.

Here are the 2009 fantasy third base rankings:

1. David Wright | New York Mets - Wright will contribute in all five categories and should be considered a top four overall fantasy stud. He and A-Rod a very closely ranked, but Wright’s numbers should surpass A-Rod’s this season.
2. Alex Rodriguez | New York Yankees - A-Rod is also a five category contributor who shoul dbe taken with one of the first four picks in any fantasy draft where salary doesn’t play a part. Going with A-Rod or Wright could just be a matter of which NY team you like better.
3. Aramis Ramirez | Chicago Cubs - He’s reached triple digits in RBI the last three years, he’s a lock for 25+ home runs, and his batting average doesn’t hurt you either.
4. Evan Longoria | Tampa Bay Rays - Longoria blasted 27 home runs in only 448 at-bats in ‘08 easily deserved the AL Rookie of the Year award, and top five placement here. Two worries: His wrist injuries and his subsequent power drop off in the second half. If those two issues are fixed for ‘09, expect big things.
5. Chipper Jones | Atlanta Braves - Prior to the ‘08 season the only goal Chipper set for himself was to reach 150 games played. He did not get there, but put up one damned fine season at the plate hitting .364 and winning a batting title. Don’t expect a batting average repeat or 150 games played, but you can safely expect Jones to outperform most third basemen with fewer at-bats. (Read: Jones + lower tiered 3B = fantasy goodness)
6. Garrett Atkins | Colorado Rockies - Now that Atkins seems to be staying put this off-season in Colorado, you can grab him right around here amongst third basemen. But remember this; Atkins hit .342 at home and .233 on the road. If his ticket gets punched to another MLB city at the trade deadline, his fantasy valur will plummit like your 401(k).
7. Chone Figgins | Los Angeles Angels - Figgins is the first third baseman who doesn’t have any power potential whatsoever. You grab Figgins for his stolen base skills. He’s been limited by injuries to right at 115 games the last two seasons and he stole 41 and 34 bases respectively. If healthy, a 150+ game season out of Figgins could produce 50+ stolen bases, easily.
8. Edwin Encarnacion | Cincinnati Reds - Loved the 60% increase in home runs (16 to 26). Hated the 38 point decrease in batting average. The slide in batting average could have a little something to do with a 26.4% hit rate (career norm is 29.5%).  That being said, if his average comes back up and his power sticks around you’ve got yourself a great option. Also remember that Encarnacion is entering his 27-year-old season.
9. Ryan Zimmerman | Washington Nationals - Zimmerman missed almost two months in ‘08 and still put up decent numbers. He hit .306 in the second half and blasted 5 home runs in the final month of the season. The end of the year power output could spell good things to come in ‘09. Plus, he’s only going to be 25.
10. Adrian Beltre | Seattle Mariners - Beltre’s 77 RBI were a far cry from the 99 he posted in ‘08 with similar home run totals. The Mariners had a tough season and it played a part in Beltre’s run production. There’s not much to suggest the M’s will fix anything for ‘09, but Beltre should produce similarly to ‘08.
11. Mark Reynolds | Arizona Diamondbacks - Reynolds managed to strike out 204 times in 2008 leading to an abysmal .239 batting average. However, he did have 28 home runs and 97 RBI. To stomach Reynolds’ special plate awareness you’d better surround him with extremely high average hitters. Another precursor to doom: Reynold’s second half numbers were far worse than his first half. He may be regressing.
12. Troy Glaus | St. Louis Cardinals - Glaus hit 27 home runs and drove in 99 in 544 at-bats last year. He’d be rankied in the top 10 of this list if he weren’t going ot be out until at least mid-May following surgery.
13. Alex Gordon | Kansas City Royals - Gordon upped his walk rate and lowered his strikeout rate in ‘08 and those things make me happy. His batting average rose 13 points in response; all while hitting more home runs. Gordon should continue growing as a hitter in ‘09 and when he does, will become a top ten third baseman.
14. Mark DeRosa | Cleveland Indians - DeRosa’s batting average dropped in ‘08 as his strikeout rate rose and his hit rate dropped. He’s 34-years-old and his days of hitting 20+ home runs are gone. But, his multi-position eligibilty really increases his fantasy value, so draft him and enjoy DeRosa as an outfielder, second baseman or third baseman.
15. Melvin Mora | Baltimore Orioles - Mora’s second half of 2008 sealed many fantasy championships. Heck, he was picked off the waiver wire in a lot of leagues. That being said, you’re most likely going to be spending too much or drafting him too high in 2009. He’ll still hit 17-20 home runs, but don’t expect triple digit RBI any more.
16. Mike Lowell | Boston Red Sox - Lowell will not hurt your fantasy team at all, but he’s showing many signs of age and his days of getting 500+ at-bats seem long gone. Expect somethin gin the neighborhood of 15 home runs and 75 RBI with a .270 batting average. You should also draft another third baseman to play when Lowell inevitably hits the DL.
17. Michael Young | Texas Rangers - His .280+ with double digit home runs and stolen bases make him a top ten short stop. As a third baseman he’s not quite so valuable. After a week or so, he’ll be eligible at short stop, third base, middle infield and corner infield. That kind of versatility is somewhat valuable.
18. Kevin Kouzmanoff | San Diego Padres - His plate discipline took a turn for the worse in ‘08 as his walk rate dropped and his strikeout rate rose. As a result his batting average dropped by 15 points. He did bring his home run total up, which is nice, but remember he plays in an extremely pitcher friendly park and reaching 23 home runs again might not be in the cards.
19. Casey Blake | Los Angeles Dodgers - Remember that Blake is 35-years-old and no longer a threat to hit 20+ home runs and drive in 80+. He has multi-positional eligibility in some leagues which drives up his value just enough to still be relevant.
20. Pablo Sandoval | San Francisco Giants - This 22-year-old hit .345 with three home runs in 145 at-bats last year. More importantly, he is eligible to play catcher, first base and third base. He’s in the lineup for good now (most likely at third) and you can expect some great things from him in ‘09. A .300 batting average with 15 home runs and 85 RBI don’t seemout of the question. Just remember that he’s young and doesn’t have a large sample size of MLB data to go on when he hits a few speed bumps.
21. Eric Chavez | Oakland Athletics - The talent is here, but Chavez is a huge injury risk. He hasn’t reached 500+ at-bats since 2005 and only had 89 at-bats last season. A healthy Chavez could hit 25 home runs and drive in 80+. An injured Chavez… well, see 2008.
22. Bill Hall | Milwaukee Brewers - Remember the good ole days back in 2006 when Hall hit 35 dingers and had a .270 batting average? Well, we now know that that season was an anomaly. Hall’s never going to produce like that again, and his .225 average last season pushed him out of mixed-league consideration.
23. Scott Rolen | Toronto Blue Jays - Rolen, just like Chavez above but not quite so extreme, can’t seem to stay healthy. If he reaches 400 at-bats in ‘09 he’ll bat .255 with 10 home runs.
24. Josh Fields | Chicago White Sox - Ozzie Guillen openly criticized Fields last season to the point of saying his skills were diminished. That’s a rough thing to hear as a 26-year-old. In only 32 at-bats he hit .156 with zero home runs, proving Guillens point. Until Fields proves he can produce at the big league evel, he’s an AL-only, late round kind of guy.
25. Pedro Feliz | Philadelphia Phillies - Mike Schmidt threw many fantasy owners a wicked curve ball last spring when he said Feliz could hit 30 home runs and drive in 100. Sorry Mike, Feliz cannot do those things and he also should be making any mixed-league rosters.
26. Brandon Inge | Detroit Tigers - Inge’s batting average has slid further than Sid Bream’s famous slide to send the Braves to the World Series in 1992. He batted .205 last season in 347 at-bats with 11 home runs and for the life of me, I can’t figure out how he’d even make it onto a fantasy roster of any type.

This is going to be the shortest list so far as I rank the players by position. Why is that? Well, I’ll answer that, as well as many other questions that I know you all will ask before you can blow up my inbox with hate mail.

B.J. Upton is not on this list, he’ll be in the outfield rankings. Alexei Ramirez and Mike Aviles will be in the short stop rankings and Mark DeRosa will be in the third base rankings. Yes, I know they have second base eligibility, but I’m placing them in their projected position. I may go back and do a multiple eligibility list, and I may not. How’s that for setting expectations?

You also have a number of position battles going on. There’s Getz versus Nix in Chicago, Barmes versus Baker in Colorado, Burris versus Velez versus Frandsen in San Francisco and Antonelli versus Gonzalez in San Diego. Until winners are announced in those races, they’re not making the list.

Also, Orlando Hudson and Jeff Kent are missing from this list as they have yet to sign anywhere. I’ll include them once they do.

Here are the 2009 fantasy second base rankings:

1. Chase Utley | Philadelphia Phillies - He’s vowed to be ready by Opening Day. That’s good enough to make #1 on this list. A healthy Utley is the best second baseman in baseball, from a fantasy perspective.
2. Dustin Pedroia | Boston Red Sox - I’m going to be the first one on my block to grow a pair and launch Pedroia up where he belongs; #2 on this list. He hits better than Kinsler, scores more and drives in more. Plus he’s the reigning AL MVP! For all that is good in this world, hear me… Pedroia should be #2 on the fantasy second base rankings!
3. Ian Kinsler | Texas Rangers - Had Kinsler played in 157 games like Pedroia, he would have surpassed Pedroia’s numbers easily. But, he didn’t. In fact, Kinsler hasn’t played in more than 130 games in his career. Until he proves that he can stay healthy, he’s riding in the back seat of Pedroia’s car.
4. Brandon Phillips | Cincinnati Reds - Phillips is a perennial 20/20 guy and I bet he brings his batting average back up towards the .270 range this season too.
5. Brian Roberts | Baltimore Orioles - This guy approaches double digit home runs, 40 stolen bases, and a .300 batting average every year. I’m thinking .290/10/38 in ‘09 and he’ll score 95 as well. Solid!
6. Dan Uggla | Florida Marlins - Uggla is the first guy on this list who doesn’t steal bases. But, he does mash the ball with the best of them. Don’t expect his average to rise above .265, but you can bank on 25+ home runs, probably 30.
7. Robinson Cano | New York Yankees - If only Cano batted in the first half the way he did in the second half, he would be elite. That just doesn’t seem likely to happen though. He should get his batting average back up to .300 this season, but the 14-18 home runs he showed us last year seem to be his benchmark.
8. Jose Lopez | Seatle Mariners - How did Lopez emerge in ‘08? Fewer strikeouts, more walks, and a reasonable hit rate. Expect ‘09 to look more like ‘08 than ‘07. I’m thinking .280/15/75.
9. Kelly Johnson | Atlanta Braves - This should be the third year in a row that Johnson quietly hits around .275 and gets fantasy owners double digit home runs and stolen bases.
10. Placido Polanco | Detroit Tigers - If only Polanco had a touch more pop in his bat or speed. If only… He’s a solid .300+ hitter and he’ll score tons of runs.
11. Howie Kendrick | Los Angeles Angels - Kendrick is the person on this list most likely to outperform his ranking. If healthy, he could easily hit .315 with 15 home runs and 20 stolen bases. He’s also just as likely to fall and rip open his spleen to further prove to Angels fans that he’ll never reach the 100 game plateau. High risk/high reward here.
12. Alexi Casilla | Minnesota Twins - This 24-year-old can burn and should be given more green lights on the base paths in ‘09. He’s probably more like a .270 hitter than .280, but could reach double digit home runs with 550+ at-bats.
13. Rickie Weeks | Milwaukee Brewers - Every year I hear that Weeks’ true hitting skills were shown in 2006 with his .279 batting average and not the garbage we see every other year. If you’ve said this recently, or in the past, I’m telling you that you’re wrong. Weeks is a .235 hitter who benefitted from an extremely high hit rate in 2006. He will, however, plant 15 homers in the seats and come close to scoring 100. You’d just better have a plan to make up for his sloppy batting average.
14. Freddy Sanchez | Pittsburgh Pirates - Sanchez always seems to get you close to a .300 average with 8-10 home runs and 75 to 85 runs scored. Nothing should be different in 2009.
15. Kaz Matsui | Houston Astros - 20 stolen bases in 375 at-bats with a .293 batting average in ‘08? Draft him late just for those numbers and jump for joy if he reaches 500 at-bats.
16. Mike Fontenot | Chicago Cubs - With DeRosa out Fontenot finally earns the starting job in Chicago. I may be going out on a limb here, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see .285 with 13 home runs, 60 RBI amd 75 runs scored.
17. Felipe Lopez | Arizona Diamondbacks - Lopez hit .283 last year and gave glimpses that he could have a power surge of sorts. A few more home runs (read:11) and stolen bases (read:15) make Lopez somewhat relevant.
18. Aaron Hill | Toronto Blue Jays -Hill is walking more and striking out less which will help him bring his average back up. Don’t expect .291 as his hit rate was abnormally high in ‘07. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see .280-.285 with 10 home runs.
19. Akinora Iwamura | Tampa Bay Rays -What you saw last year (.274/4/48/91/8) is pretty much what you get.
20. Mark Ellis | Oakland Athletics -Ellis isn’t really a .233 hitter. A hit rate plunge was likely the culprit in driving his average down in ‘08. He won’t hit much higher than .255 though, but he will blast 12-16 homers and reach double digit steals.
21. Blake DeWitt | Los Angeles Dodgers - Dewitt started over Kent in the playoffs and that trend should remain true whether or not Kent comes back. Don’t expect his batting average to head north much, but he could hit a few more home runs.
22. Luis Castillo | New York Mets - He’s slowing down a bit and striking out more, which doesn’t bode well for his only perceived value of batting average, runs scored and stolen bases. This guy  is trending downward.
23. Asdrubal Cabrera | Cleveland Indians - Strikes out a lot, but strangely walks a lot too. Until we figure that out, think of Cabrera hitting .265 with 8-10 home runs and 8-10 stolen bases.
24. Adam Kennedy | St. Louis Cardinals - Gets at-bats in St. Louis mainly because of his glove. How many of you use fielding statistics in your fantasy leagues?
25. Alberto Callaspo | Kansas City Royals - Doesn’t offer much other than a .280 or so batting average in ‘09.
26. Anderson Hernandez | Washington Nationals - If a .250 hitting second baseman with very few home runs and stolen bases fits into your fantasy agenda, this is your guy.

Here are the fantasy baseball rankings for the top ten second basemen for the 2008 season. I will also list the predictions from the pre-season at the bottom of this post for comparison.

1. Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox - You probably spent the first half of the season asking yourself if Pedroia could really be this good. Now we’re all asking if Pedroia could really be the American League MVP. The answer is yes to both questions. 118 runs | 17 HR | 83 RBI | 20 SB | .326
2. Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies - With 18 home runs before June, there seemed to be no slowing Utley down. He did come back down to earth as injuries took their toll by season’s end. 113 runs | 33 HR | 104 RBI | 14 SB | .292
3. Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers - Had Kinsler not gone down August with a season ending injury, amazing things could have happened. 102 runs | 18 HR | 71 RBI | 26 SB | .319
4. Brian Roberts, Baltimore Orioles - Roberts may want out of Baltimore and onto a winning team, but any fantasy roster that he’s on is better for having him. His stolen base totals drive his fantasy value, but he produces in many more ways. 107 runs | 9 HR | 57 RBI | 40 SB | .296
5. Dan Uggla, Florida Marlins - Uggla struck out 171 times but still hit .260. It’s his power, however, that makes him valuable to the fantasy GM. 97 runs | 32 HR | 92 RBI | 5 SB | .260
6. Mark DeRosa, Chicago Cubs - DeRosa does just about everything well. And his multi-position eligibility makes him a rock star. 103 runs | 21 HR | 87 RBI | 6 SB | .285
7. Jose Lopez, Seattle Mariners - Didn’t make a lot of noise, but put up a lot of fantasy numbers. 80 runs | 17 HR | 89 RBI | 6 SB | .297
8. Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati Reds - A broken finger cost him about 50 at-bats. He still showed an awesome speed/power duality before he went down. 80 runs | 21 HR | 78 RBI | 23 SB | .261
9. Alexei Ramirez, Chicago White Sox - Probably won’t top Evan Longoria for American League Rookie of the Year honors, but his 2008 campaign was fantastic none the less. Give him a full season of at-bats and you’d have seen him higher on this list. 65 runs | 21 HR | 77 RBI | 13 SB | .290
10. Kelly Johnson, Atlanta Braves - Double digit home runs and stolen bases make Johnson a desirable fantasy option. 86 runs | 12 HR | 69 RBI | 11 SB | .287

Below you’ll find the pre-season rankings for the second base position.

2008 American League Fantasy Baseball Second Base Rankings

1. B.J. Upton | Tampa Bay Rays
2. Brian Roberts | Baltimore Orioles
3. Robinson Cano | New York Yankees
4. Ian Kinsler | Texas Rangers
5. Dustin Pedroia | Boston Red Sox
6. Howie Kendrick | Los Angeles Angels
7. Placido Polanco | Detroit Tigers
8. Aaron Hill | Toronto Blue Jays
9. Mark Ellis | Oakland Athletics
10. Asdrubal Cabrera | Cleveland Indians
11. Jose Lopez | Seattle Mariners
12. Danny Richar | Chicago White Sox
13. Alexi Casilla | Minnesota Twins
14. Mark Grudzialanek | Kansas City Royals
15. Macier Izturis | Los Angeles Angels
16. Brendan Harris | Minnesota Twins

2008 National League Fantasy Baseball Second Base Rankings

1. Brandon Phillips | Cincinnati Reds
2. Chase Utley | Philadelphia Phillies
3. Dan Uggla | Florida Marlins
4. Kelly Johnson | Atlanta Braves
5. Rickie Weeks | Milwaukee Brewers
6. Orlando Hudson | Arizona Diamondbacks
7. Jeff Kent | Los Angeles Dodgers
8. Freddy Sanchez | Pittsburgh Pirates
9. Mark DeRosa | Chicago Cubs
10. Luis Castillo | New York Mets
11. Felipe Lopez | Washington Nationals
12. Kaz Matsui | Houston Astros
13. Ray Durham | San Francisco Giants
14. Tadihito Iguchi | San Diego Padres
15. Ronnie Belliard | Washington Nationals
16. Adam Kennedy | St. Louis Cardinals
17. Mark Loretta | Houston Astros
18. Ruben Gotay | New York Mets
19. Kevin Fransden | San Francisco Giants