Crooked Pitch

If you haven’t been to Mock Draft Central and gotten in a few mock drafts, you need to do that. The data used today is taken from their ADP trend report, which I pulled this morning.

Over the last week here are the hitters that are seeing the biggest upward moves in their average draft position.

1. Rocco Baldelli | Boston Red Sox | +52.4% - With the announcement of Baldelli joining the Red Sox, Baldelli has risen more than any other player in baseball over the last week. His ADP was 420.84 and is now 276.08 placing him in the 23rd round.
2. Erick Aybar | Los Angeles Angels | +35.0% - I suppose that charging the mound with a bat in your hand is the path to fantasy relevance. Aybar moved into the 23rd round this week at 275.04 from 371.21 last week.
3. Nelson Cruz | Texas Rangers | +15.9% - A batting average of .330 with seven home runs in his limited 115 at-bats last season squarely placed Cruz on every sleeper list around. He’ll be a household name by the time your fantasy draft comes around, so don’t over pay. Last week his ADP was 180.62, but over this past week it’s risen to 155.86 putting Cruz in the 13th round.
4. Willy Taveras | Cincinnati Reds | +14.0% - Taveras is climbing this week because he found a new team. And the Reds have penciled him (and his 65+ potential stolen bases) in at the center field position. Taveras is now being taken in the 15th round (179.23 ADP) instead of the 17th round (204.31 ADP).
5. Chase Utley | Philadelphia Phillies | +13.2% - Utley’s been hovering in the 3rd round because of his injured right leg and uncertain return status to baseball. But when he announced that he’ll be ready by opening day, the ADP started to rise from 26.58 to 23.49. If Utley is ready by Opening Day, he’s a a bargain at the back of the 2nd round.

Other hitters of note that moved well this week: Grady Sizemore (+6.4%), Jacoby Ellsbury (+8.2%), Chris Davis (+11.5%) , Matt Wieters (+10.2%), Jayson Werth (+11%), Mike Napoli (+9.7%), Jose Lopez (+11.9%), Fred Lewis (+11.6%), Jason Kubel (+11.4%), Mark Ellis (+13.2%), and Matt Joyce (+13.2%)

This is going to be the shortest list so far as I rank the players by position. Why is that? Well, I’ll answer that, as well as many other questions that I know you all will ask before you can blow up my inbox with hate mail.

B.J. Upton is not on this list, he’ll be in the outfield rankings. Alexei Ramirez and Mike Aviles will be in the short stop rankings and Mark DeRosa will be in the third base rankings. Yes, I know they have second base eligibility, but I’m placing them in their projected position. I may go back and do a multiple eligibility list, and I may not. How’s that for setting expectations?

You also have a number of position battles going on. There’s Getz versus Nix in Chicago, Barmes versus Baker in Colorado, Burris versus Velez versus Frandsen in San Francisco and Antonelli versus Gonzalez in San Diego. Until winners are announced in those races, they’re not making the list.

Also, Orlando Hudson and Jeff Kent are missing from this list as they have yet to sign anywhere. I’ll include them once they do.

Here are the 2009 fantasy second base rankings:

1. Chase Utley | Philadelphia Phillies - He’s vowed to be ready by Opening Day. That’s good enough to make #1 on this list. A healthy Utley is the best second baseman in baseball, from a fantasy perspective.
2. Dustin Pedroia | Boston Red Sox - I’m going to be the first one on my block to grow a pair and launch Pedroia up where he belongs; #2 on this list. He hits better than Kinsler, scores more and drives in more. Plus he’s the reigning AL MVP! For all that is good in this world, hear me… Pedroia should be #2 on the fantasy second base rankings!
3. Ian Kinsler | Texas Rangers - Had Kinsler played in 157 games like Pedroia, he would have surpassed Pedroia’s numbers easily. But, he didn’t. In fact, Kinsler hasn’t played in more than 130 games in his career. Until he proves that he can stay healthy, he’s riding in the back seat of Pedroia’s car.
4. Brandon Phillips | Cincinnati Reds - Phillips is a perennial 20/20 guy and I bet he brings his batting average back up towards the .270 range this season too.
5. Brian Roberts | Baltimore Orioles - This guy approaches double digit home runs, 40 stolen bases, and a .300 batting average every year. I’m thinking .290/10/38 in ‘09 and he’ll score 95 as well. Solid!
6. Dan Uggla | Florida Marlins - Uggla is the first guy on this list who doesn’t steal bases. But, he does mash the ball with the best of them. Don’t expect his average to rise above .265, but you can bank on 25+ home runs, probably 30.
7. Robinson Cano | New York Yankees - If only Cano batted in the first half the way he did in the second half, he would be elite. That just doesn’t seem likely to happen though. He should get his batting average back up to .300 this season, but the 14-18 home runs he showed us last year seem to be his benchmark.
8. Jose Lopez | Seatle Mariners - How did Lopez emerge in ‘08? Fewer strikeouts, more walks, and a reasonable hit rate. Expect ‘09 to look more like ‘08 than ‘07. I’m thinking .280/15/75.
9. Kelly Johnson | Atlanta Braves - This should be the third year in a row that Johnson quietly hits around .275 and gets fantasy owners double digit home runs and stolen bases.
10. Placido Polanco | Detroit Tigers - If only Polanco had a touch more pop in his bat or speed. If only… He’s a solid .300+ hitter and he’ll score tons of runs.
11. Howie Kendrick | Los Angeles Angels - Kendrick is the person on this list most likely to outperform his ranking. If healthy, he could easily hit .315 with 15 home runs and 20 stolen bases. He’s also just as likely to fall and rip open his spleen to further prove to Angels fans that he’ll never reach the 100 game plateau. High risk/high reward here.
12. Alexi Casilla | Minnesota Twins - This 24-year-old can burn and should be given more green lights on the base paths in ‘09. He’s probably more like a .270 hitter than .280, but could reach double digit home runs with 550+ at-bats.
13. Rickie Weeks | Milwaukee Brewers - Every year I hear that Weeks’ true hitting skills were shown in 2006 with his .279 batting average and not the garbage we see every other year. If you’ve said this recently, or in the past, I’m telling you that you’re wrong. Weeks is a .235 hitter who benefitted from an extremely high hit rate in 2006. He will, however, plant 15 homers in the seats and come close to scoring 100. You’d just better have a plan to make up for his sloppy batting average.
14. Freddy Sanchez | Pittsburgh Pirates - Sanchez always seems to get you close to a .300 average with 8-10 home runs and 75 to 85 runs scored. Nothing should be different in 2009.
15. Kaz Matsui | Houston Astros - 20 stolen bases in 375 at-bats with a .293 batting average in ‘08? Draft him late just for those numbers and jump for joy if he reaches 500 at-bats.
16. Mike Fontenot | Chicago Cubs - With DeRosa out Fontenot finally earns the starting job in Chicago. I may be going out on a limb here, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see .285 with 13 home runs, 60 RBI amd 75 runs scored.
17. Felipe Lopez | Arizona Diamondbacks - Lopez hit .283 last year and gave glimpses that he could have a power surge of sorts. A few more home runs (read:11) and stolen bases (read:15) make Lopez somewhat relevant.
18. Aaron Hill | Toronto Blue Jays -Hill is walking more and striking out less which will help him bring his average back up. Don’t expect .291 as his hit rate was abnormally high in ‘07. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see .280-.285 with 10 home runs.
19. Akinora Iwamura | Tampa Bay Rays -What you saw last year (.274/4/48/91/8) is pretty much what you get.
20. Mark Ellis | Oakland Athletics -Ellis isn’t really a .233 hitter. A hit rate plunge was likely the culprit in driving his average down in ‘08. He won’t hit much higher than .255 though, but he will blast 12-16 homers and reach double digit steals.
21. Blake DeWitt | Los Angeles Dodgers - Dewitt started over Kent in the playoffs and that trend should remain true whether or not Kent comes back. Don’t expect his batting average to head north much, but he could hit a few more home runs.
22. Luis Castillo | New York Mets - He’s slowing down a bit and striking out more, which doesn’t bode well for his only perceived value of batting average, runs scored and stolen bases. This guy  is trending downward.
23. Asdrubal Cabrera | Cleveland Indians - Strikes out a lot, but strangely walks a lot too. Until we figure that out, think of Cabrera hitting .265 with 8-10 home runs and 8-10 stolen bases.
24. Adam Kennedy | St. Louis Cardinals - Gets at-bats in St. Louis mainly because of his glove. How many of you use fielding statistics in your fantasy leagues?
25. Alberto Callaspo | Kansas City Royals - Doesn’t offer much other than a .280 or so batting average in ‘09.
26. Anderson Hernandez | Washington Nationals - If a .250 hitting second baseman with very few home runs and stolen bases fits into your fantasy agenda, this is your guy.

Here is a review of this weeks best pickups as reviewed on Daily Roto Pickups. I will try to supply one from each of the following positions at my weekly review here on Crooked Pitch (C, CI, MI, OF, SP and RP). I will include their current availability that may have changed since my initial review. The reviews are how I view the player today.

C: Miguel Olivo- He is currently on a nice run and getting extra AB’s. He won’t be able to keep the spot all year unless the Royals decided to give up on John Buck this year. None of his numbers or past performance shows he can keep this up, but if he can earn the full time job he is worth owning as a #2 catcher in mixed leagues.

He is currently owned in 15% of leagues.

CI: Adam LaRoche - The annual slow start is turning around and he still is available in half of leagues so if you have struggles at 1B or CI he is ready to be owned. He is batting around .286 in May and should be around that for the rest of the year. He should also have 25 homeruns, but playing in Pittsburgh will limit the RBI chances.

He is only owned in 50% of CBS leagues.

MI: Mark Ellis - Take a look at Ellis as he has now added steals this year and is going largely on the waiver due to his average. He has pop and enough steals to make him a good 2B or MI. He has a good K rate though and his BABIP is .252 which is low enough to expect a rise in his average.

He is only owned in 42% of CBS leagues.

OF: Jack Cust - In my league he holds great value due to his ability to get on base since we use OBP instead of average. In regular leagues he is limited by his average and needs a Ichiro type average to even him out. His power is undeniable though so he should be rostered if you need HR’s or RBI’s.

He is only owned in 39% of CBS leagues.

SP: Ubaldo Jimenez - Another early season struggle by a young player. Some of his stats show he should be better than this and has had some bad luck so far. As long as they keep him out there he should pitch more like this last game against San Fran. The last number of concern is his high BB/9 which if he can improve he will be pitching like he did late last year.

He is owned in 39% of leagues.

RP: Eddie Guardado - Everyday Eddie he is not anymore, but he still has that mindset. If CJ Wilson has a few more poor outings we could see Eddie real soon. As long as they are in the playoff race they will be much more likely to go to Eddie. If they fall to far behind they will probably stick with Wilson or try some younger options like Frank Francisco

They are only owned in 9% as of this morning on CBS.