Crooked Pitch

It’s round twelve. Take a look back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2,  round 3, round 4, round 5, round 6, round 7, round 8, round 9, round 10 and round 11.

• Round 12 : Pick 1(133) - @seniorcircuit - A.J. Burnett - This started my own run on pitchers pairing Burnett with Gallardo in back to back picks.  It seems I have drafted the New York Yankees big three signings, not really on purpose, it just happened that way. I see nothing wrong with Burnett in this spot with a great offense behind him I predict a 14 W/180 Ks/3.97 ERA/1.29 WHIP.
• Round 12 : Pick 2(134) - @jasoncollette - Pablo Sandoval - Sandoval is someone I start looking at in the low teens because he is slated to hit in the middle of the lineup. Depending on your in-season eligibility, he’ll qualify at catcher at some point in the season making him even more valuable - say a Ryan Doumit lite for 2009? He is still way too impatient at the plate and led the team in swinging at pitches out of the strike zone but it is not like there is anyone else around on the depth chart so he will have a very long leash from management.
• Round 12 : Pick 3(135) - @dowdyism - Ryan Dempster - Back from the depths last year, Dempster was a workhorse for the Cubs, throwing over 200 innings, and notching nearly as many strikeouts. The 2.96 ERA most likely isn’t repeatable, but his all around numbers make him a solid addition to my staff.
• Round 12: Pick 4(136) - @therotofeed - Adrian Beltre - Again, probably a little earlier than I need to go, but I like his consistency. Beltre gets you 25/85/270 every year. Except of course, in 2004, which was the last time his contract was up, when he basically doubled his normal production through either economic inspiration or magical potion. Hmm. Guess whose contract is up at the end of this year?  And guess who is still only 29 years old? Still got some of that potion?
• Round 12 : Pick 5(137) - @sporer - Lastings Milledge - Is it obvious that I like power-speed in my outfield? Milledge joins Kemp, Granderson and Young for now. His totals were nearly similar in each half, but it was the 81 fewer at-bats and 54 more batting average points that made it look so good. Milledge is another youngster with room to improve and I see another step forward in 2009.
• Round 12 : Pick 6(138) - @tommystv - David Price - I haven’t reached on any youth with uncertainty yet, so here I go. Starter or Reliever I’m down. I’m assuming he’ll be starting this year, but you never know we these things. Great talent regardless.
• Round 12 : Pick 7(139) - @xxldaddyo - Kerry Wood - Time to close out the Closer situation by picking up Kerry Wood here in the 12th Round. Wood was relatively healthy in 2008 (save for a three week blister ailment) and posted a 34 Saves for the Cubs. He’s moved from Lake Michigan to Lake Erie and will have plenty of save opps for the Indians.
• Round 12 : Pick 8(140) - @jefeboy - Matt Cain - Waited a long time to take a second SP after taking my ace very early. The wins are a toss-up, but he showed lots of improvement in 2008 and I hope he keeps it up. He’s young, so who knows?
• Round 12 : Pick 9(141) - @fakebaseball - Javier Vazquez -Since I’m at the point where I’d like to start adding more pitchers to my roster, I chose Javier Vazquez, who in my mind is the best-available pitcher, and worthy of a 12th-round pick. For ‘09, I’m expecting 3.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 8.5 K/9, which are undoubtedly very solid numbers from my #3 starter. I think he’ll find pitching in the NL more to his liking than pitching in the AL (where his home field was a bandbox, and where he regularly faced DHs).
• Round 12 : Pick 10(142) - @TheRoundtable - B.J. Ryan - In the middle rounds, I look to build my pitching staff, and adding Ryan here gives me two solid closers and has me confident that I won’t have to be looking for one the rest of the way. The saves I have now I can live with. Ryan will get all the opportunities and it’s a full season away from the surgery that knocked him out. He should be back to where he was prior to the injury now.
• Round 12 : Pick 11(143) - @Angels2717 - Matt Garza - Matt Garza showed in the last half of the season and plaoffs that he can pitch at a high level and get some wins. He’s young and fresh and could have a breaout year this year. He might not pick up all of those K’s, but you can’t expect that kind of pitcher in the 12th round. What he will do is have a fairly low ERA and 14+ wins (hopefully).
• Round 12 : Pick 12(144) - @crookedpitch - Ricky Nolasco - Nolasco had a huge second half where he lowered his ERA almost a full point and struck out more than a batter per inning. I’m hoping that he continues on this trend in ‘09. I am worried a bit about the workload his arm undertook in ‘08. I’m willing to take this medium risk / high reward gamble in the 12th round.

I recently broke from my usual fantasy draft strategy when I took three starting pitchers prior to the 12th round. I usually will only grab one stud starting pitcher, one stud closer, and then fill out the rest of my staff in the mid to late rounds.

That being said, I took a look at average draft position over at Mock Draft Central and I wanted to see what kind of pitching staff I could put together of players who are going in the 14th round or later (157 ADP or greater). Taking into consideration that I have already splurged on a stud ace and a closer to start filling in my nine pitcher staff, here are the other seven starting pitchers that I can get in the later rounds.

1. Matt Garza | Tampa Bay Rays | 167.52 ADP - Garza will win 11 games or so for the Rays and should have an ERA in the 3.70 to 3.90 range with 150+ strikeouts. That’s nice for the 14th round.
2. Kevin Slowey | Minnesota Twins | 173.37 ADP - Taken in the 15th round Slowey is good for 12 wins or so and should approach 140 strikeouts. He’ll also help out with a sub 3.75 ERA.
3. Jair Jurrjens | Atlanta Braves | 182.82 ADP - Jurrjens is a 16th round pick and should win 11 games and strike out 125 or so. His ERA will stay below 4.00.
4. Justin Duchscherer | Oakland Athletics | 188.37 ADP - Also a 16th round pick, Duchscherer will really help your teams ERA as he’ll probably post under 3.25 in ‘09. He’ll also win 10 games and strike out 100.
5. Ted Lilly | Chicago Cubs | 190.10 ADP - 12 wins, a 3.80 to 3.90 ERA and 175 strikeouts would be great from Lilly in the 16th round.
6. Chien-Ming Wang | New York Yankees | 193.16 ADP - Wang should give you 12-13 wins and will keep his ERA well under 4.00. He’s not going to help with strikeouts much, but in the 17th round that’s ok.
7. John Maine | New York Mets | 229.22 ADP - Take Maine in the 20th round and you could get 10 wins, a 3.95 ERA or so, and 125 strikeouts.

If you’ll notice I had two criteria that needed to be met to land on this list. You must be projected to win 10+ games and your ERA needed to be under 4.00. If I had relaxed those standards a bit, look who else could have popped onto this list.

• Aaron Cook | Colorado Rockies | 174.23 ADP - 10+ wins but his ERA will be above 4.00.
• Oliver Perez | New York Mets | 229.25 ADP - 10 wins, an ERA above 4.00, but 175+ strikeouts in the 20th round. Wow!
• Mike Pelfrey | New York Mets | 206.23 ADP - 12 wins and 125+ strikeouts.
• Ulbaldo Jimenez | Colorado Rockies | 229.77 ADP - Another 160+ strikeouts in the 20th round.
• Mark Buehrle | Chicago White Sox | 224.55 ADP - This 19th round guy should win 12 games and strike out 130.

I had a lot of fun last night participating in my first real draft of the year over at Mock Draft Central. The league is a 12 team roto league called Battle of the Fantasy Gods. Here’s how I did drafting from the 12th spot at building my 23-man roster. Remember that we have no bench spots, so all of these guys will start for me each week.

I also spent the night on twitter broadcasting my thoughts, picks, and asking for opinions. Thanks to @fakebaseball, @tmo119, @piraterev, @xxldaddyo, and @angels2717 for hanging out, listening and not laughing at all of my picks. Follow these guys on twitter as well as keep up with my updates too at @crookedpitch.

1. Catcher: Joe Mauer - I grabbed Mauer in the 5th round after Soto, Martin and McCann went earlier. I’m looking forward to his .320+ batting average this season and hope he’ll approach triple digit runs scored and double digit home runs.
2. Catcher: Ryan Doumit - I wasn’t expecting to grab another catcher of this quality, but I did so in the 11th round and can safely say that I have the best catcher tandem in the league. I’m not sure if Doumit will hit over .300 again due to his high hit rate, but .280 or so would be great. Especially if he can approach 20 dingers.
3. First Base: Mark Teixeira - Teixeira was my 2nd round pick at #13 and I expect big things from him hitting in that Yankee lineup.
4. Second Base: Brandon Phillips - I took Phillips in the 3rd round as I felt there was a huge drop off in talent at the second base position after him. I love the power / speed combo.
5. Short Stop: Jimmy Rollins - Rollins was my first round pick and I feel very fortunate that he fell to me at the #12 pick. His speed / power combo also excites me.
6. Third Base: Alex Gordon - At around the 5th round I decided to wait a while for a third baseman. I waited until the 14th round and grabbed Alex Gordon. I’d love it if he hit 20 home runs this season, but it’ll more likely be in the high teens. He could also steal double digit bases for me and since his walk rate is rising, and his strikeout rate is dropping, I’d love to see his batting average climb a bit too.
7. Outfield: Nick Markakis - I took Markakis in the 4th round and I’m looking for triple digit runs scored, 20+ home runs, 10+ stolen bases, and a batting average above .300. Shouldn’t everyone’s standards for a 4th round pick be so high?
8. Outfield: Chris Young - My 8th round pick was Young and I’m going to need my 2008 .300 hitters to stay above .300 to supplement Young’s .250 average. But Young’s 20+ home runs and hopefully 20+ stolen bases will be nice.
9. Outfield: Jay Bruce - In 413 at-bats Bruce hit 21 home runs. So, in 2009, his first full season, I’m hoping for 30+ home runs. The 90-100 RBI that would come with that would be nice for a 10th round pick.
10. Outfield: Nick Swisher - My 17th round pick isn’t even going to get full time at-bats on his new team. I’m hoping that Swisher gets traded from the Yankees or some portion of the log jam there does, or this pick is a bad one.
11. Outfield: Adam Lind - Lind was a 19th round pick to finish out my outfield. I’d love to see him prove that 2007 was an outlier and that the rest of his career at a .300+ batting average is the norm. 20+ home runs would be a gift to me as well.
12. Middle Infielder: Howie Kendrick - Kendrick is a big injury risk, I know this. But, if healthy, he could hit above .300, blast 10 home runs and steal 20 bases. That’s a big if. Plus I got him for a value price in the 13th round at pick #156 when he had an ADP of 130.
13. Corner Infielder: Billy Butler -Two thirds of my corner infield spots play for Kansas City. Am I screwed or what? I hope that Butler can hit north of .290 and come close to 20 home runs in 2009, which wouldn’t be bad for a 20th round pick.
14. Utility: Jason Bartlett - With my last pick of the draft (23rd round) I wanted some more speed. I grabbed Bartlett and hope he’ll reach 20 stolen bases and not hurt me anywhere else.
15. Pitcher: Jonathan Papelbon - I took Paps in the 6th round and he wasn’t the first reliever selected, Francisco Rodriguez went in the 5th. He’s going to notch a lot of saves pitching for the Red Sox. Which I am going ot need since I did not draft another closer.
16. Pitcher: Josh Beckett - Beckett was my 7th round pick and I hope he’ll rebound in 2009 to get his ERA below 4.00 and bring his win total back up.
17. Pitcher:  Scott Kazmir - After Beckett, I wasn’t going to take another pitcher so early. But, when Kazmir was still available at my 9th round pick (#108) I had to jump on him since his ADP was 68. In theory, that’s 6th round talent in the 9th round. Score!
18. Pitcher: Rich Harden - Wish list for my 12th round pick: 1)Please stay healthy! 2)Keep your ERA close to 3.00. 3)Please stay healthy! 4)10+ K/9 ratio would be fantastic. 5)Did I mention please stay healthy?
19. Pitcher: Gavin Floyd -  I’m not expecting 17 wins again from my 15th round draft pick. But 12 wins with 150 strikeouts and a 4.00 ERA would be nice.
20. Pitcher: Matt Garza - I grabbed Garza in the 16th round and expect similar numbers to Floyd from him; 12 wins, 150 strikeouts, sub 4.00 ERA.
21. Pitcher: Max Scherzer - I reached a little bit for my 18th round pick here. I’m hoping for Scherzer to stay in the rotation all season and continue his 10+ K/9 ratio pace.
22. Pitcher: Manny Parra - Parra is my 21st round pick and if I get 10 wins from him and 135 strikeouts with an ERA around 4.00, I’d be happy.
23. Pitcher: Mark Buehrle - 10 Wins, 4.00 ERA, 130 strikeouts. That’s all I want from this 22nd round pick.

So, there you go. How’d I do?

What was my best pick? Worst one?

Here are a few links to the results of the draft:

• Draft Grid
• Team Rosters
• Draft Results