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It’s time to begin the ranking of outfielders for the 2009 season. Today, let’s look at the top ten.

1. Grady Sizemore | Cleveland Indians - Dude became a 30/30 guy last season after three seasons of posting 20/20 numbers. And get this, he’s only 26-years old. Triple digit runs scored and the possibility of approaching triple digit RBI make it easy to forget that Sizemore doesn’t have the best batting average.
2. Ryan Braun | Milwaukee Brewers - Anyone who passed on Braun before the ‘08 season worried about a sophomore slump came away disappointed. He scored more runs, hit more home runs and increased his RBI output. Even without third base eligibilty any more, he’s still one of the picks of the litter.
3. Carlos Beltran | New York Mets - At 31-years old people keep telling me that Delgado’s value should plummet soon. It hasn’t happened. He’s a 20/20 guy with triple digit RBI and run totals and nothing less should be expected in ‘09.
4. Josh Hamilton | Texas Rangers - Maybe in the ‘09 All-Star game Hamilton won’t use up all his second half home runs in the derby. Just about 2/3 of his homers came in the first half in ‘08. He posted triple digit RBI and almost hit triple digits in runs scored. His nine stolen bases are gravy. More power could show up in ‘09.
5. Manny Ramirez | Free Agent - What Manny did in the seconld half was sick last year. He can’t keep that pace up for an entire season, but a batting average above .300 with 25+ home runs and triple digit RBI and run totals should be the new definition of “Manny being Manny”.
6. Carlos Lee | Houston Astros - Lee lost close to 200 at-bats due to a shattered pinky in ‘08. He still hit 28 home runs and drove in 100. With the pinky healed expect Lee to easily lock down a line something like .300/30/100/100/10.
7. Alfonso Soriano | Chicago Cubs - Unfortunately, Soriano has been trending negatively in his playing time due to injuries. If he can solve that problem in ‘09 he could get back to his studly 30/30 like numbers.
8. Jason Bay | Boston Red Sox - Bay’s 2008 performance went a long way in showing us that his poor showing in 2007 was an outlier. Give him a full season hitting in that stacked Red Sox lineup and you’ll see better things in ‘09 then you saw in ‘08.
9. Matt Holliday | Oakland Athletics - The new team name on his uniform is the reason why Holliday is in the bottom half of this top ten list and not near the top. The move to Oakland isn’t going to turn him into a Louse, but his offensive output can’t match his days in Colorado, can it?
10. Carlos Quentin | Chicago White Sox - A wrist injury kept Quentin from reaching 40 home runs last season. In 480 at-bats he still drove in 100 and scored 96 runs. In ‘09 watch for Quentin to finish the breakout he started in 2008.

It’s time for another installment of movers and shakers on the Mock Draft Central Average Draft Position Report.

Headed Up

• Andy Pettitte | New York Yankees | +7.7% - You knew the Pettitte re-signing would begin his slow rise in ADP. This is his second consecutive week with a 7+ percentage point rise. He’s now into the 23rd round at 276.76 from 298.00.
• Ryan Braun | Milwaukee Brewers | +7.1% - Braun is firmly entrenching himself in the first round as he goes from an ADP of 10.41 to 9.72.
• Ian Kinsler | Texas Rangers | +4.1% - There has been much debate so far about which second baseman (Utley, Pedroia or Kinsler) deserves to be the highest ranked at his position. This week it was Kinsler as he went from an ADP of 11.65 to 11.19 and was the only one of the three to rise in ADP. (for what it’s worth, I disagree and rank Kinsler third out of these guys)
• Grant Balfour | Tampa Bay Rays | +3.8% - Balfour just penned a one-year contract with the Rays and had a 1.54 ERA with 82 strikeouts in 58.1 innings of work. He’s a superb set-up man and a must own if your league uses holds. He’s up to a 290.84 ADP from 301.86.
• Matt Wieters | Baltimore Orioles | +3.2% - Wieters climbed last week from a mid-11th-round 127.36 to an early 11th round 123.45. All without seeing a Major League pitch.
• Tim Lincecum | San Francisco Giants | +3.0% - Lincecum has almost climbed into the second round as he’s sitting at 26.05 from an ADP of 26.82. Santana is still the highest ranked pitcher on the board at 18.58, but I’m not sure that I wouldn’t take Lincecum before him.

Other noteables: James Shields (+2.0%) and Brandon Lyon (+2.7%)

Headed Down

• Melvin Mora | Baltimore Orioles | -6.1% - Is it Mora’s age (36) or the Orioles addition of Wiggington that had fantasy GM’s selecting Mora later in mock drafts? His ADP dropped from a 17th round 204.14 to a 19th round 217.34.
• Matt Holliday | Oakland A’s | -6.0% - Holliday moved last week from an ADP of 13.37 to 14.23. It looks as if he’s completely out of contention for a first round selection, which is probably as it should be since he’s no longer hitting in Coors Field.
• Mike Jacobs | Kansas City Royals | -5.6% - A crowded Royals first base depth chart and his inability to het lefties migt have spawned his drop to an ADP in the 22nd round of 263.05 from the 21st round 248.37 he was at last week.
• Ubaldo Jimenez | Colorado Rockies | -4.2% - Jimenez just rose 5.6% last week after signing a new deal and now drops out of the 23rd round to 282.36 from 270.55 this week. WTF???
• Chien-Ming Wang | New York Yankees | -3.2% - He’s not a strikeout threat or a very good base runner, but Wang, if healthy, should perform better than his ADP of 215.35 (19th round) predicts. Last week he fell from 208.37 (18th round).
• John Smoltz | Boston Red Sox | -3.0 - Smoltz fell from an ADP of 260.48 to 268.64 last week. Are February mock drafters finally realizing that Smoltz is in no hurry to hit the mound in Fenway? The Red Sox are going to make 125% sure that Smoltz is healthy and only care about him helping out in the stretch run and the playoffs.

Other noteables: Ryan Howard (-5.1%), Jason Giambi (-4.4%), Mark DeRosa (-4.0%), Alex Rodriguez (-3.8%), Jorge Cantu (-3.1%) and Justin Upton (-3.0).

We’re booking along now. At this pace we’ll be done with this slow mock draft by mid-June.

It doesn’t matter how long it takes as long as you learn something, or at least laugh at us a little. Here’s the results from round two; a round where we see the first pitcher taken and the first arguments brew about reach picks.

• Round 2 : Pick 1(13) - @seniorcircuit - Matt Holliday - Taking 2 guys who will be playing for brand new teams in brand new ballparks.  You can’t ignore a 5 category player in the 2nd round, who I think will bounce back and put up numbers like 2006-2007. Possible 100/25/100/25/.320 season for him in 2009.
• Round 2 : Pick 2(14) - @jasoncollette - Ian Kinsler - I didn’t think Kinsler would be there at 14 so I’m happy with him. He’s a premium player at a premium position and could finish as a top 10 player if he can stay healthy this year.
• Round 2 : Pick 3(15) - @dowdyism - Lance Berkman -A bit of a boring pick, but there is no reason Berkman can’t keep up his 30 HR/100 RBI/.300 AVG pace in 2009.  I considered both Jimmy Rollins and Dustin Pedroia here, but fell in love with the lumber.
• Round 2 : Pick 4(16) - @therotofeed - Jimmy Rollins -I picked Rollins betting that he’d return a bit more value than last year, although certainly nowhere near his 2007 numbers.  He looked at a lot more pitches last year per AB than he has in the past, and I’m guessing that it had to do with his early season injuries. He gets more aggressive this year and I think some power returns.
• Round 2 : Pick 5(17) - @sporer - Carlos Beltran -Though his home run totals have declined yearly since 2006, Carlos Beltran has raised his batting average and stolen bases yearly over the same stretch.  It isn’t easy to find $30 earners and a strong case could be made for Beltran in the late 1st round as far as I’m concerned.  I was thrilled to pick him up in the mid-second round.  He is a bona fide 4-category producer with a tremendous power-speed combo.  Prior to last season his batting average was nothing to write home about, but it wasn’t a detriment to the roster, either.  Last year’s .284 proved quite usable and it wouldn’t be out of bounds to project an average creeping up near .300 this year as the second level numbers suggest he has been through some bad luck in the AVG department the past three seasons.  With his 40-40 potential window all but closed, he is no longer a “sexy” pick, but he is as rock solid of a producer as you can hope to get when building the foundation of your team.
• Round 2 : Pick 6(18) - @tommystv - Evan Longoria -My middle infield slant comes from a place of desiring top talent at thin positions. Jimmy Rollins was my ideal here, and no I’m not a Phillies fan. After picking Rollins I was gonna take a hard look at who ever the best 3B on my board was. This would have been in the  Aramis or Chipper range. Well since Rollins was gone there was no SS with any value at this spot, so my choice came down to Pedroia for my MI spot (and a nice piece of trade bait in either Pedroia or Utley later on) or Longoria. I went Longoria mainly because I like the pop, and also because I see a solid drop off at 3rd after him because of the health concerns of Ramirez and Chipper.
• Round 2 : Pick 7(19) - @xxldaddyo - Dustin Pedroia -I had planned on taking Evan Longoria in the second round (he, Sizemore and Hamilton are the cornerstones of my regular Roto league), but with Tommystv snatching him up (who also happens to be in my regular roto league) I went with last year’s MVP Dustin Pedroia. He’s not likely to repeat his numbers from last year, but the BA is REAL and when you factor in that he has 20/20 potential and position scarcity? It was just too hard to pass up on Pedroia.
• Round 2 : Pick 8(20) - @jefeboy - Johan Santana -I really struggled with this one on many levels. No SP had been taken yet, and there are still some tasty bats out there. I considered Carlos Lee; love the dependability. Thought about Brian Roberts, but that felt like a little bit of a reach in the 2nd round. So I settled on a SP, and even then… lots of people would have taken Timmah or Sabathia, but I’ll go with the grand old master. Of course now I have 2 Mets after 2 rounds. Oops…
• Round 2 : Pick 9(21) - @fakebaseball - Alfonso Soriano -I chose Soriano with my second pick with some misgivings. I took him because he was the best-available player on the board in my mind, but my top two picks are both leadoff hitters, so I’ve started off in the hole with regard to RBI. It’s something I’ll have to try to correct later in the draft.
• Round 2 : Pick 10(22) - @TheRoundtable - B.J. Upton -I know, not the most conventional of picks with BJ Upton. I love the speed factor, and this is another guy that can hit for average on top of it. He’s getting on base, and that generates runs. The Rays lineup is only getting better, so I’ll trust him knowing that I have another pick pretty soon where I can grab more power numbers.
• Round 2 : Pick 11(23) - @Angels2717 - Carlos Lee -Taking Carlos in the late second round pleases me.  I enjoy his overall power and his batting average that keeps rising (.314 last year).  I always enjoy having a power outfielder and getting a solid one early is something I think most drafters should do.  His 100+ RBIs and a possible 30+ homers and .300+ average intrigues me in the late second round.  Especially in a fairly stacked Astros lineup, he should be racking up the RBIs.  I was tempted by either a Lincecum or Sabathia pick, but I thought I would wait a round or two to get my pitchers.
• Round 1 : Pick 1 - @crookedpitch - Justin Morneau -I’ve decided to go with power for the next few picks. Instead of arbitrarily grabbing the most home runs available, I wanted to consider the other offensive categories with this pick. In 2008, 28 players registered 100 or more RBI. Of those 28 players only 11 of them batted over .300. And of those 11 who batted over .300 and drove in 100+, seven are already off the board. With Morneau I take one of the remaining four hitters who are both RBI and batting average studs. I’ll enjoy the 20+ home runs and the almost 100 runs scored as well.

Sports Illustrated reported it first. Matt Holliday is headed to Oakland and nobody knows what’s coming back to Colorado in return. ESPN thinks that pitcher Greg Smith will be included in the deal, but the big news (other than Holliday being traded) is that no news is known about the deal, yet.

As mentioned previously, this deal will most assuredly hurt Hollidays fantasy baseball value. At this point, I can only speculate how much. Holliday has never played a game at McAfee Coliseum. But, the park effects aren’t boding well for the ex-Rockie outfielder.

According to ESPN’s MLB Park Factor statistics Coors Field ranks third for home runs with a 1.299 HR factor and McAfee Coliseum ranks 14th with a 0.988 HR factor. Coors Field also ranks third with a 1.126 Runs factor, while McAfee Coliseum ranks 26th with a 0.916 Runs factor.

Another thing to consider when speculating about Hollidays 2009 fantasy value is the fact that he’ll have less support in the lineup hititng behind him. Whether it’s Sweeney, Cust, or Suzuki hitting in the clean up hole, you can be pretty sure they won’t offer the same protection as Garrett Atkins did in Colorado.

Update [Nov 10, 2008 4:01 PM EST]: This deal isn’t final yet, and likely won’t be for another 48 hours.

Update [Nov 11, 2008 1:27 PM EST]: The deal still hasn’t been finalized, but there is a better picture of the players involved. Colorado seems to be sending Holliday to Oakland for Carlos Gonzalez, Greg Smith, and Huston Street.

Update [Nov 12, 2008 2:30 PM EST]: The deal is now official. The A’s sent outfielder Carlos Gonzalez, reliever Huston Street and left-handed pitcher Greg Smith to the Rockies for Matt Holliday.

The Colorado Rockies have announced to the baseball world that they will entertain offers for fantasy stud Matt Holliday. Instead of allowing Holliday to play the final season of his contract in Colorado and then test the free agent waters, the Rockies want to see what they can get for the outfielder.

The question remains, would leaving the hitter’s haven of Coors Field hurt Matt Holliday’s fantasy value?

In 2008 Holliday hit .332 with 15 home runs at home, and .308 with ten home runs on the road. While those aren’t huge differences, his road numbers would almost certainly not allow him to be a first round pick. To further prove that point, look at his slash stats and how they relate to his RBI production. At home, Holliday averages .332/.413/.584 and drove in 59 runs. But, on the road his averages were .308/.405/.486 with only 29 RBI. That almost 100 point reduction in slugging percentage seemed to take its toll on his RBI total.

It’s even worse in you look at his career home/road splits.

• Home - .357/.423/.645 with 84 home runs and 307 RBI in 1353 at-bats
• Away - .280/.348/.455 with 44 home runs and 176 RBI in 1303 at-bats

Here are the fantasy baseball rankings for the top ten outfielders for the 2008 season. I will also list the predictions from the pre-season at the bottom of this post for comparison.

1. Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles Dodgers - Manny did it all in 2008. He alienated teammates and Red Sox Nation. But, once he decided to get serious, he hit better than anyone else in baseball. 102 runs | 37 HR | 121 RBI | 3 SB | .332
2. Matt Holliday, Colorado Rockies - Is it possible for your home run total to go down at Coors Field? I’m nit picking here since he still hit 25 homers and was one of the most versatile hitters in fantasy baseball. 107 runs | 25 HR | 88 RBI | 28 SB | .321
3. Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers - Had a much more powerful first half than second. But both halves of the season were pretty phenomenal. 98 runs | 32 HR | 130 RBI | 9 SB | .304
4. Lance Berkman, Houston Astros - This is most likely the last seaosn you’ll see Berkman with outfield eligibility. Now he can dominate the first basemen for the rest of his career. 114 runs | 29 HR | 106 RBI | 18 SB | .312
5. Ryan Ludwick, St. Louis Cardinals - A lot of St. Louis fans wondered out loud what Ludwick could do with a full season of at-bats. He tore the cover off of the ball. 104 runs | 37 HR | 113 RBI | 4 SB | .299
6. Carlos Beltran, New York Mets - His power is dipping which is understandable as you age. But, his stolen bases are on the rise (aren’t you supposed to slow down as you get older?). With all of these question marks, the only thig that is a certainty is that Beltran is an all around fantasy stud. 116 runs | 27 HR | 112 RBI | 25 SB | .284
7. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers - No sophomore slump for Braun. He actually bested his home run total and RBI total from 2007. 92 runs | 37 HR | 106 RBI | 14 SB | .285
8. Jason Bay, Boston Red Sox - Another solid season for Bay who may end up really liking it in Boston. It’s starting to look like 2007 was an anomaly. 111 runs | 31 HR | 101 RBI | 10 SB | .286
9. Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians - This guy does everything extremely well. if his batting average would have been 10-15 points higher he would have been in the top three on this list. 101 runs | 33 HR | 90 RBI | 38 SB | .268
10. Carlos Quentin, Chicago White Sox - 36 dingers and 100 RBI in only 480 at-bats. Imagine what it could have been like if he’d gotten 550+ at-bats… 96 runs | 36 HR | 100 RBI | 7 SB | .287

Below are the pre-season rankings.

2008 American League Fantasy Baseball Outfielder Rankings

1. Carl Crawford | Tampa Bay Rays
2. Grady Sizemore | Cleveland Indians
3. Ichiro Suzuki | Seattle Mariners
4. Vladimir Guerrero | Los Angeles Angels
5. B.J. Upton | Tampa Bay Rays
6. Alex Rios | Toronto Blue Jays
7. Curtis Granderson | Detroit Tigers
8. Magglio Ordonez | Detroit Tigers
9. Manny Ramirez | Boston Red Sox
10. Bobby Abreu | New York Yankees
11. Nick Markakis | Baltimore Orioles
12. Torii Hunter | Los Angeles Angels
13. Vernon Wells | Toronto Blue Jays
14. Hideki Matsui | New York Yankees
15. Nick Swisher | Chicago White Sox
16. Jermaine Dye | Chicago White Sox
17. Delmon Young | Minnesota Twins
18. Johnny Damon | New York Yankees
19. Jacoby Ellsbury | Boston Red Sox
20. Raul Ibanez | Seattle Mariners
21. Jose Guillen | Kansas City Royals
22. Melky Cabrera | New York Yankees
23. Gary Matthews Jr. | Los Angeles Angels

2008 National League Fantasy Baseball Outfielder Rankings

1. Matt Holliday | Colorado Rockies
2. Alfonso Soriano| Chicago Cubs
3. Carlos Beltran | New York Mets
4. Carlos Lee | Houston Astros
5. Adam Dunn | Cincinnati Reds
6. Eric Byrnes | Arizona Diamondbacks
7. Chris Young | Arizona Diamondbacks
8. Hunter Pence | Houston Astros
9. Cory Hart | Milwaukee Brewers
10. Brad Hawpe | Colorado Rockies
11. Andruw Jones | Los Angeles Dodgers
12. Jason Bay | Pittsburgh Pirates
13. Shane Victorino | Philadelphia Phillies
14. Juan Pierre | Los Angeles Dodgers
15. Jeff Francoeur | Atlanta Braves
16. Ken Griffey Jr. | Cincinnati Reds
17. Matt Kemp | Los Angeles Dodgers
18. Pat Burrell | Philadelphia Phillies
19. Aaron Rowand| San Francisco Giants
20. Jeremy Hermida | Florida Marlins
21. Austin Kearns | Washington Nationals
22. Moises Alou | New York Mets