Crooked Pitch

If you haven’t been to Mock Draft Central and gotten in a few mock drafts, you need to do that. The data used today is taken from their ADP trend report, which I pulled this morning.

Over the last week here are the hitters that are seeing the biggest upward moves in their average draft position.

1. Rocco Baldelli | Boston Red Sox | +52.4% - With the announcement of Baldelli joining the Red Sox, Baldelli has risen more than any other player in baseball over the last week. His ADP was 420.84 and is now 276.08 placing him in the 23rd round.
2. Erick Aybar | Los Angeles Angels | +35.0% - I suppose that charging the mound with a bat in your hand is the path to fantasy relevance. Aybar moved into the 23rd round this week at 275.04 from 371.21 last week.
3. Nelson Cruz | Texas Rangers | +15.9% - A batting average of .330 with seven home runs in his limited 115 at-bats last season squarely placed Cruz on every sleeper list around. He’ll be a household name by the time your fantasy draft comes around, so don’t over pay. Last week his ADP was 180.62, but over this past week it’s risen to 155.86 putting Cruz in the 13th round.
4. Willy Taveras | Cincinnati Reds | +14.0% - Taveras is climbing this week because he found a new team. And the Reds have penciled him (and his 65+ potential stolen bases) in at the center field position. Taveras is now being taken in the 15th round (179.23 ADP) instead of the 17th round (204.31 ADP).
5. Chase Utley | Philadelphia Phillies | +13.2% - Utley’s been hovering in the 3rd round because of his injured right leg and uncertain return status to baseball. But when he announced that he’ll be ready by opening day, the ADP started to rise from 26.58 to 23.49. If Utley is ready by Opening Day, he’s a a bargain at the back of the 2nd round.

Other hitters of note that moved well this week: Grady Sizemore (+6.4%), Jacoby Ellsbury (+8.2%), Chris Davis (+11.5%) , Matt Wieters (+10.2%), Jayson Werth (+11%), Mike Napoli (+9.7%), Jose Lopez (+11.9%), Fred Lewis (+11.6%), Jason Kubel (+11.4%), Mark Ellis (+13.2%), and Matt Joyce (+13.2%)

Once again showing that the Tampa Bay Rays organization is becoming a force to be reckoned with, the club last week sent Edwin Jackson to Detroit for Matt Joyce.

Here are Joyce’s lines from last season:

• In 56 games at Triple-A Durham - .270/.348/.550 13 doubles, 13 home runs, 2 stolen bases
• In 92 games with Detroit - .252/.339/.492 16 doubles, 12 home runs

The 24-year-old performed nicely for the Tigers last season, and should fit in nicely as the Rays every day right fielder. However, there are some concerns:

• If the Rays go out and sign a free agent outfielder (there are some big names like Burrell and Bradley left) Joyce would become the 4th outfielder, greatly reducing his fantasy value.
• Joyce only hit .227 against left handed pitching last season. None of his 12 home runs came against lefties either. If Joyce cannot improve on this split stat, he’s likely to become a situational platoon player.

Those concerns stated, Joyce has potential to produce this season and maybe even more so later on.

Friedman said Joyce “will certainly contribute” in the upcoming season - the Rays’ first as defending American League champion - but he clearly expects the bigger impact in 2010 and beyond.

“We feel like he’s got above-average power. We feel like he is an above-average defender,” Friedman said. “We think he’s got a chance to develop into a very good player, and even short of that, we feel like he can help this team for many years. The fact that he’ll be here for a minimum of six years is valuable to us and something we have to keep in mind.”

Take a wait and see approach with Joyce. You should be watching him in Spring Training to see if he shows signs of repeating, or improving on, his 47.5% fly ball rate and his 14.1% HR/F ratio. Also, if you’re in deep keeper leagues it may be time to stash Joyce on your bench and wait until 2010 to see if he becomes really production. Bill James predicts 15 home runs in right at 300 at-bats for Joyce in ‘09. If James is anywhere close to being right with that projection, and Joyce gets full-time at-bats, you’ll have yourself some nice pop in a young outfielder that you should pick up on the cheap.

Today’s pitch count is 6.

1. Not that he’s on many fantasy baseball rosters, except for maybe the deepest of AL-only leagues, but Luke Hochevar left the game tonight with an undisclosed rib cage injury. Not to scream out only bad news about Royals baseball, you could do a lot worse than Mike Aviles for you shortstop or middle infield needs. He had two hits tonight and is hitting .320 over 262 at-bats.
2. Note to American League pitchers. You might want to rethink your strategy of walking Big Papi to get to Youk. Kevin Youkilis popped a two-run home run tonight, and drove in another run in the eigth after David Ortiz was intentionally walked. In the last week Youk is .364/.440/.955 with 8 runs scored, 3 homers, and 8 RBI.
3. A.J. Burnett was 5-0 over the last month with a 3.94 ERA going into tonight’s game. To say he continued to pitch well is an understatement. He threw eight strong innings allowing five hits and only one earned. He also struck out 13 batters while only walking one. Strong stuff!!
4. Since we’re on the subject of strong pitching performances tonight, let’s look at Rich Harden’s 10 strikeout night. He threw seven innings and only allowed two hits. He didn’t give up any runs or walk anyone. Harden is averaging 8.42 strikeouts per outing over his last seven starts, or 1.40 strikeouts per inning. It look as if pushing his start back so that Harden could pitch in cooler weather was a superb idea.
5. Tigers 4th outfielder Matt Joyce belted two home runs tonight and could start seeing more playing time. Also, don’t be surprised if he gets moved higher in the batting order (he currently hits 7th) when he plays.
6. Let’s add Kevin Slowey to the list of great pitching performances tonight. He struck out 12 and walked none in his seven innings of work. He only gave up one earned run and five hits tonight while earning his tenth win of the season.