Crooked Pitch

Here are the results of our third round in the slow mock draft. To see the past rounds and commentary follow the links to round 1 and round 2.

• Round 3 : Pick 1(25) - @crookedpitch - Prince Fielder - He’s not a 50 home run guy, but I wouldn’t count out 35-40 homers with 100+ RBI. Fielder is exactly the kind of pick I want here as I’m still going with my power early strategy. He’s  my first player that won’t hit above .300, but .275 ain’t too shabby for the power numbers he’ll put up. With these last two picks right in a row I grabbed a potential 60+ home runs and 215+ RBI. I’m also happy that all three of my first picks have 30+ home run potential. Did I mention I’m drafting power early in this draft?
• Round 3 : Pick 2(26) - @Angels2717 - Brandon Phillips - I gotta take the 20/20 Brandon Phillips with capability of raising that much higher.  In the third round, you got to take a guy who’s 20/20 puts him in the same category in that stat with guys like Hanley, Grady Sizemore, David Wright, Rollins and Alfonso Soriano.  As the draft goes on you just wont find the power and speed combo anymore.  After taking two power hitters, I decided to settle with some speed and with some power to go with it.
• Round 3 : Pick 3(27) - @TheRoundtable - Manny Ramirez - So my working theory is that Ramirez will be signed SOMEWHERE by opening day. If he isn’t, then me and Scott Boras are going to have a few words. Last season, he hit 37 home runs and drove in 121 between Boston and LA. Every season since 1998, except 2007, has seen him put up at least 33 home runs and 100 RBI. The way I look at it, he’s another pick that I’m going to be able to count on to produce every game he decides to play. And, yes, as a Sox fan I’m not too thrilled. As a fantasy owner, he’s a solid pick here.
• Round 3 : Pick 4(28) - @fakebaseball - Jason Bay - Since I took leadoff hitters with my first two picks, it made sense to take a middle-of-the-lineup slugger in the third round, and of course there were good, fairly valued choices here (so no reaching was required). As I have discussed more than once on my Twitter blog, I think Quentin is being overrated in ‘09, so I went with Bay as my 30 HR/100 RBI slugger (I think he and Markakis are very close in value, so I went with the higher-power choice). I could even see the possibility of Bay outperforming Holliday and Hamilton from a fantasy perspective in ‘09, though I’m not expecting it.
• Round 3 : Pick 5(29) - @jefeboy - Brian Roberts - Was glad to see him fall to me here, since I considered taking him in the 2nd round. I like to get lots of speed, since it’s a good commodity to trade later on. And I like to build my IF early and patch together an OF as needed.
• Round 3 : Pick 6(30) - @xxldaddyo - Nick Markakis -We took Nick Markakis because of his upside. Dude hit .322 in the second half last year and he’s still just a pup at 25. Thirty home runs in 2009, ya heard it here first.
• Round 3 : Pick 7(31) - @tommystv - Carlos Quentin - But with reaches like [the Markakis pick] that, guys like Carlos Quinton fall to me. Best player on my board, I’m absolutely stalking SS’s at this point, but I’ll wait for the run on the next tier, I think the next 6 on the board are all the same. Quinton on the other hand has hit 30+ and will hit 30+ again, and all of this production will happen on a team that actually scores runs.
• Round 3 : Pick 8(32) - @sporer - Matt Kemp - It’s been a mixed bag of opinions on Kemp for 2009.  I think a 2008 repeat +/- a few RBIs here or a few steals there is on tap for the budding superstar.  If he can continue to destroy lefties (.354 career) while making some improvements on his ‘08 performance vs. righties (.260), then he could be headed for a .300 season, but I’d bet more on something in the .280s.  A 90-20-90-30 season is a perfectly reasonable expectation for Kemp.  It’s hard not to love across-the-board producers like this.
• Round 3 : Pick 9(33) - @therotofeed - Carl Crawford - I picked Crawford because he’s also coming off some injuries that nagged him all year and brought down his performance.  I think he returns to his 2007 self and the upside gamble is that he turns in another season like his 2005 year.  The guy is only 27.
• Round 3 : Pick 10(34) - @dowdyism - Aramis Ramirez - This is my first mock draft of the 2009 season, and I think the rust is showing.  I still don’t feel like I’m in the flow yet.  That said, I like another 30HR/100 RBI corner man in Aramis Ramirez, especially at a thin 3B position.
• Round 3 : Pick 11(35) - @jasoncollette - Tim Lincecum - On Seabiscuit……I think he is the 2nd best pitcher this year behind Santana. He pitches in a pitcher’s park, gets to pitch in 2 other pitcher’s parks a lot this year, and the NL West has some rather putrid offenses as it stands on paper today.
• Round 3 : Pick 12(36) - @seniorcircuit - Adrian Gonzalez -I was happy to see another power bat available and filled my CI spot with Adrian Gonzalez. I can only imagine where he would go in a draft if he hit outside of Petco for a full year. I see him putting up 100/30/110/.280 for 2009.

One of my new favorite personalities on twitter is Ron Aguirre (@xxldaddyo). Ron was the publisher of the short-lived XXL National Sports Daily in 2006, which was an homage to Frank DeFord’s old “National Sports Daily” from 1990. XXX National Sports Daily was a 150-paged daily PDF which was covered the previous days sporting events. Ron has recently begun www.xxlnational.com as a blog covering baseball. A lifelong Dodger fan, Ron is looking for others who want to cover their favorite teams for the XXLNational blog.

I asked Ron the same five questions that I asked Marc. It’s a great resource to get two knowledgeable opinions on these topics. Enjoy!

1. Hector Luna tore up the Dominican League. Jamie Hoffman fared well in the Arizona Fall League. What players helped their stock the most by fall or winter league participation?

At 28, Hector Luna isn’t much of a prospect. Labeling him as “suspect” might even be a little generous, despite hitting .318 with seven HRs for the Aguilas. When you think about MI Dodger prospects one name comes to mind: Ivan De Jesus Jr.

Jamie Hoffman may have impressed a little more with his .314 for the Surprise Rafters in the AFL. His OBP of .432 shows patience and a willingness to work a count and take a walk. Speed is the name of Hoffman’s game, he had three SBs in ten AFL games to go along with 28 for AA Jacksonville last season. He’ll be one to watch in Albuquerque in 2009, but Andrew Lambo and Xavier Paul seem to be the next big things for the Dodgers OF down on the farm.

2. With Greg Maddux retiring, the Dodger rotation doesn’t look too set after Billingsley, Kershaw, and Kuroda. Schmidt and Billingsley both are hoping injuries will be healed by Spring Training. How do you see the Dodger rotation shaping up?

The Dodger rotation is still in flux and there is no doubt that Ned Colletti is not done yet. Billingsley’s injury does not appear to be serious and the Dodger’s expect him to be fully recovered by the time that pitchers and catchers report to Glendale, AZ in mid-February.

With the restructuring of Andruw Jones contract, $12 million has been freed up for 2009. While speculation is that the $12 million saved this year would go towards signing Manny, the departure of Kent, Penny, Garciaparra and Derek Lowe has already shaved enough off the 2008 payroll to pay for Manny. The $12 million will best be served fortifying the front end of the rotation. One remote possibility would be for the Dodgers to enter the Jake Peavy sweepstakes. This would undoubtedly cost them Matt Kemp, and if the Dodgers re-sign Manny then they might be able to let Kemp go

It’s more likely however that Ned Colletti will go the Free Agent route with either Ben Sheets or Oliver Perez. Sheets would immediately become the #1 starter and Perez would slot in initially at #4 and would give the Dodgers a R/L/R/L starting four. Both pitchers come with caveats. Sheets health is always a concern, but he made it thru the ‘08 campaign relatively unscathed. If Perez can remember to throw strikes, he could become a #2 for the Dodger rotation. His 3.56 ERA in the second half of last season points to good things. The other “possibility” as far as Free Agent pitchers are concerned would be Andy Pettitte. This would reunite him with Joe Torre and the National League. The Yankees signing of CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett, may signal that they will not re-sign Pettitte which would leave him available to tutor the Dodgers young rotation.

The number five starter looks like it will either be Jason Schmidt (if healthy) or James McDonald. Schmidt has been a complete bust since signing before the ‘07 season, but with all the money the Dodgers have given him, you can bet that they will give him every opportunity to make good on some of it. If he can’t, then look for James McDonald to pick up the slack.

3. Are any of the new faces (either free agents, players acquired in trades, or minor leaguers going to make a splash in ‘09?

The only new face that should make a splash in the Dodgers 2009 lineup would be a freshly shaven (and newly signed) Manny Ramirez. The Yankees and Angels have all but delivered Manny to the Dodgers with their off-season moves and announced intentions. Even though the two sides have not come to an agreement yet, remember that the Dodgers had to speak with Scott Boras (Manny’s agent) to restructure Andruw Jones‘ contract. Conversations like that don’t happen in a bubble. Boras knew full well that restructuring one clients (Andruw) contract, would only serve to help another (Manny).

Rafael Furcal played in fewer games for the Dodgers than either Manny Ramirez OR Andruw Jones in 2008. A return to health for Furcal would bring a fresh new re-birth of his Dodger career in 2009. The Dodgers are counting on big things from Furcal at the top of the order in the upcoming season.

4. The Dodger outfield was packed full last season, and as of this writing, still is. Can you talk about some of the positional battles out there? And if you didn’t touch on this in the new faces piece, is Mark Loretta going to be taking lots of at-bats away from Furcal and Dewitt?

The outfield is settling now that Andruw Jones is out of the picture. CF belongs to Matt Kemp, RF to Andre Ethier and LF will be Manny’s (as soon as that contract comes thru). If for some reason, Manny does NOT re-sign with the Dodgers, look for them to sign either Adam Dunn or Bobby Abreu to slot in LF. Juan Pierre is nothing more than a 4th OF and late inning pinch runner.

Mark Loretta = utility infielder. He is this year’s Angel Berroa or Nomar Garciaparra. Unless Blake DeWitt struggles seriously at the plate? Don’t look for Loretta to get too many at bats for the Dodgers.

5. Saito is out. Is Broxton the man to close out games?

Hear me now and believe me for the next 4-5 years. Jonathan Broxton is the REAL deal and is (and will be) the Dodgers Closer from here on out. Everyone talks about his eight blown saves in 08. What most people DON’T realize is that only two of those saves came in his capacity as the Closer for the Dodgers. The other six took place in his role as the Dodgers 8th inning set-up man. Broxton’s ERA in the 2nd half (when he was closing) was only 2.80 with a 1.13 WHIP. He struck out 11.5 batters every nine innings pitched. In short? Broxton is a BEAST and the National League is about to find that out. Still unsure? Take a look at the replay of when he closed out the Cubs in the the NLDS. The beast has been unleashed.

If not for one Boston pitcher, the National League would have swept these fantasy baseball MVP awards this week. Nice job NL!

Catcher: Geovany Soto | Chicago Cubs - Soto batted .391/.481/.870 while scoring six times. He also hit two home runs with 9 RBI. Russell Martin also had a good week going .304/.448/.435 with six runs, a home run, four RBI and a stolen base, but his performance was clearly a second place performance.

First Base: Adrian Gonzalez | San Diego Padres - Gonzalez narrowly edged out Lance Berkman (who won in week 4) for this week’s prize scoring seven times and knocking in six RBI with four home runs. Gonzalez averaged .385/.385/.885 last week.

Second Base: Chase Utley | Philadelphia Phillies - Utley becomes the first three time winner of this award as scored five times, knocked three home runs, had five RBI, and even stole a base. His slash stats last week were .348/.423./783. He narrowly edged out Placido Polanco while Dan Uggla also garnered consideration.

Third Base: Jose Bautista | Pittsburgh Pirates - Bautista hit three home runs last week while scoring six times and driving in seven runs. He averaged .333/.370/.750 on the road to win this award .

Shortstop: Rafael Furcal | Los Angeles Dodgers - Furcal finished just ahead of Jose Reyes for this award largely on his 11 runs scored. He also hit a home run, drove in four and stole two bases. His slash stats were .393/.452/.571.

Outfield: Matt Kemp | Los Angeles Dodgers - Kemp was the clear-cut winner this week and the second straight Dodger on the list this week. Kemp hit .407/.433/.556 with seven runs scored, 11 RBI, and six stolen bases.

Starting Pitcher: Tim Hudson | Atlanta Braves - It usually takes a two-start pitcher to win this award, but Hudson was special last Friday night (and I was lucky enough to see this in person). Hudson faced off against Edison Volquez in a fantastic pitchers duel. Hudson pitched a complete game shutout, allowing only three hits while striking out 10 and walking zero.

Relief Pitcher: Jonathan Papelbon | Boston Red Sox - Papelbon had only one save last week, but he also got two wins. In 4.1 innings of work he struck out three, walked zero, and gave up two hits on his way to a 0.00 ERA and a 0.46 WHIP.