Crooked Pitch

I don’t cross-post too many of the things I write over at Fanhouse here on this blog. I do that out of courtesy to you guys so you’re not inundated with all the noise I produce. If you want to follow along both here and at Fantasy Fanhouse, please subscribe at both places, you’ll get original content every day.

That being said, there are two things I want you all to be aware of.

1. Today at 1:00 PM ET I’ll be hosting a live fantasy baseball chat at Fanhouse. Please stop by and fire any and all fantasy questions my way.
2. Last night as we were testing Skype connections and such, a few fantasy cram sessions were recorded. This will eventually turn into weekly or even bi-weekly roto podcasts. It also may turn into a Crooked Pitch podcast in the near future. We’ll talk about that later. But, go take a listen to these two cram sessions. We talk Matt Wieters and his trade value, Chris Davis‘ amazing ability to miss baseballs and Juan Pierre.

Today’s pitch count is 4.

1. If this is news to you, you need to climb out from under that rock and start paying attention. Baltimore Orioles prospect Matt Wieters is set to make his major league debut tomorrow night. The 23-year-old catcher is batting .305/.387/.504 with five home runs in his second year as a professional. Combining last years numbers with 2009, Wieters has accumulated 578 pro at-bats and is hitting .342 with 32 home runs and 121 RBI. He’s already owned in 69% of Yahoo! leagues without a big league at-bat. That number will skyrocket this weekend.
2. Jake Fox was called up this week and got a base hit in his first big league at-bat this season. Before his call up by the Cubs he was batting .423 with 17 home runs in 149 at-bats. Wow! He’s likely not to get a huge amount of playing time in Chicago, but if he does,and continues with those Triple-A numbers in the bigs, watch out.

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It’s time for another installment of movers and shakers on the Mock Draft Central Average Draft Position Report.

Headed Up

• Andy Pettitte | New York Yankees | +7.7% - You knew the Pettitte re-signing would begin his slow rise in ADP. This is his second consecutive week with a 7+ percentage point rise. He’s now into the 23rd round at 276.76 from 298.00.
• Ryan Braun | Milwaukee Brewers | +7.1% - Braun is firmly entrenching himself in the first round as he goes from an ADP of 10.41 to 9.72.
• Ian Kinsler | Texas Rangers | +4.1% - There has been much debate so far about which second baseman (Utley, Pedroia or Kinsler) deserves to be the highest ranked at his position. This week it was Kinsler as he went from an ADP of 11.65 to 11.19 and was the only one of the three to rise in ADP. (for what it’s worth, I disagree and rank Kinsler third out of these guys)
• Grant Balfour | Tampa Bay Rays | +3.8% - Balfour just penned a one-year contract with the Rays and had a 1.54 ERA with 82 strikeouts in 58.1 innings of work. He’s a superb set-up man and a must own if your league uses holds. He’s up to a 290.84 ADP from 301.86.
• Matt Wieters | Baltimore Orioles | +3.2% - Wieters climbed last week from a mid-11th-round 127.36 to an early 11th round 123.45. All without seeing a Major League pitch.
• Tim Lincecum | San Francisco Giants | +3.0% - Lincecum has almost climbed into the second round as he’s sitting at 26.05 from an ADP of 26.82. Santana is still the highest ranked pitcher on the board at 18.58, but I’m not sure that I wouldn’t take Lincecum before him.

Other noteables: James Shields (+2.0%) and Brandon Lyon (+2.7%)

Headed Down

• Melvin Mora | Baltimore Orioles | -6.1% - Is it Mora’s age (36) or the Orioles addition of Wiggington that had fantasy GM’s selecting Mora later in mock drafts? His ADP dropped from a 17th round 204.14 to a 19th round 217.34.
• Matt Holliday | Oakland A’s | -6.0% - Holliday moved last week from an ADP of 13.37 to 14.23. It looks as if he’s completely out of contention for a first round selection, which is probably as it should be since he’s no longer hitting in Coors Field.
• Mike Jacobs | Kansas City Royals | -5.6% - A crowded Royals first base depth chart and his inability to het lefties migt have spawned his drop to an ADP in the 22nd round of 263.05 from the 21st round 248.37 he was at last week.
• Ubaldo Jimenez | Colorado Rockies | -4.2% - Jimenez just rose 5.6% last week after signing a new deal and now drops out of the 23rd round to 282.36 from 270.55 this week. WTF???
• Chien-Ming Wang | New York Yankees | -3.2% - He’s not a strikeout threat or a very good base runner, but Wang, if healthy, should perform better than his ADP of 215.35 (19th round) predicts. Last week he fell from 208.37 (18th round).
• John Smoltz | Boston Red Sox | -3.0 - Smoltz fell from an ADP of 260.48 to 268.64 last week. Are February mock drafters finally realizing that Smoltz is in no hurry to hit the mound in Fenway? The Red Sox are going to make 125% sure that Smoltz is healthy and only care about him helping out in the stretch run and the playoffs.

Other noteables: Ryan Howard (-5.1%), Jason Giambi (-4.4%), Mark DeRosa (-4.0%), Alex Rodriguez (-3.8%), Jorge Cantu (-3.1%) and Justin Upton (-3.0).

I had a really tough time naming this particular post. The point that I am trying to convey isn’t that the three players on this list are bad baseball players or that you shouldn’t draft them. I’m not trying to tell you that they’ll flop like the fish from that Faith No More video. What I do want you to hear is that when these three guys became the poster boys for sleeper picks in the 2009 fantasy draft, they very quickly became expensive. And when I say expensive, I mean Rodeo Drive expensive.

But anyway, for those of you interested, the two post titles I crossed off of the list prior to settling on what you see above are:

• “You drafted Matt Wieters in the 11th round, are you crazy???”
• “Don’t believe the over-hype”

Now let’s get on with the countdown:

The three most over-hyped players in every 2009 fantasy baseball draft I’ve read about, been a part of, or watched are Matt Wieters, Baltimore’s young catcher prospect, Nelson Cruz, the Texas Ranger’s Johnny-come-lately, 28-year-old  journeyman outfielder, and David Price, Tampa’s most promising pitching prospect.

1. Matt Wieters | Baltimore Orioles - Wieters is a beast of a young catcher who the Orioles drafted fifth overall in the 2007 draft. He stands 6′5″ and weighs 230 and, most importantly, is a switch hitter. The 2008  season was his first as a professional and he spent that time amassing 437 at-bats between Advanced-A Frederick and Double-A Bowie. Those 437 at-bats in 2008 were magical. He averaged .355/.454/.600 with 27 home runs, 91 RBI, and a 0.93 strikeout to walk ratio (76:82 K:BB). Yes, he walked more than he struck out! As fantastic as these numbers are, and they truly are superb numbers, you should have read between the lines and heard me say “He’s never logged a Major League at-bat”. Once again, he’s never seen a pitch at the big league level, not one!Even though he’s never hit in “the bigs”, the average draft position over at Mock Draft Central for Matt Wieters is 129.16. That means he’s being taken in the 11th round. He’s being selected before Chris Iannetta (144.16 ADP), another promising young catcher who hit 18 Major League home runs in 333 at-bats in ‘08. He’s also being taken before Xavier Nady (152.50 ADP) who belted 25 home runs and drove in 97 and Mike Aviles (155.68 ADP) who batted .325 with 10 homers and eight stolen bases. I would be shocked if Wieters out homered either Iannetta or Nady in 2009. And he’s certainly not going to drive in close to 100 like Nady or finish the season with a better batting average than Aviles.The 11th round, in my opinion, is still too early to take a huge risk with drafting Wieters. It’s true that he’s a high reward kind of risk. But, if he flops, your fantasy team takes a huge hit. I’d much rather go with the safer option at catcher in Iannetta if you need a catcher in the 11th round or go with more experience and power in Nady or a better batting average with Aviles.
2. Nelson Cruz | Texas Rangers - Cruz absolutely, positively tore up the Pacific Coast League in 2008. In 383 Triple-A at-bats he belted 37 home runs, drove in 99, and batted .342/.429/.695. Once he was called up to Texas he remained hot hitting .330/.421/.609 with seven home runs and 26 RBI in 115 at-bats. For those of you keeping score, Cruz hit 44 home runs last season in 498 at-bats and drove in 125.You know there is a flip side to this coin, right? Well, yes, there is.Prior to 2008, Cruz had never seen more than 307 at-bats in any Major League season. And in those three MLB seasons prior to 2008, his highest home run total was nine and the best batting average he could ever muster was .235. Once Cruz got above Single-A ball, he’s always hit well in the minors. In 2004 he batted .326 with 26 home runs. In ‘05 it was .289 with 27 homers. In ‘06 he hit .302 with 20 home runs, and in ‘07 he batted .352 with 15 homers. The minor league totals for Cruz aren’t what’s in question. It’s what he’s done once called up to MLB that worries me. In 2006 he followed up his .289/27 with .223 with six home runs in 130 MLB at-bats. He followed up his ‘07 .302/20 MiLB numbers with .235 and nine home runs in 307 MLB at-bats. Cruz hasn’t been the model of consistency or good hitting in the Major Leagues so far. There’s also the little fact that he’s turning 29-years-old this baseball season.His average draft position is 130.82, also placing him in the 11th round. I’m not saying that you can’t take a flier on Cruz and hope that his 2009 season looks more like 2008 instead of the rest of his career. What I am saying is that you should take this flier if Cruz falls to the 15th round or later. Not the 11th. Just like our conversation above about Wieters, I would still take Xavier Nady instead of Cruz in the 11th; 100% of the time.
3. David Price | Tampa Bay Rays - Price saw his first professional baseball action in 2008 after an illustrious career at Vanderbilt. The Rays took Price with the first pick in the draft in 2007 and Price saw MLB action in 2008. It wasn’t much though. He only pitched in five games, and only started one. His true colors began to shine in the playoffs when he started saving games with the poise of a veteran. In the minors in 2008 Price saw action from Advanced-A all the way up to Triple-A. His combined record in 19 starts was 12-1 with a 2.30 ERA and a 3.41 strikeout to walk ratio (109:32 K:BB). He proved that he can mow down MiLB batters. He also showed off his potential MLB skills in the playoffs.Price’s average draft position is 136.19, which places him as a 12th round draft pick. That means he’s coming off of the board before Ryan Dempster (153.20 ADP), a 17-game winner last season, Zach Greinke (154.80 ADP), who had 13 wins and 183 strikeouts, and even Randy Johnson (154.64 ADP), who may have pitched to Babe Ruth but still strikes out 170+ and keeps his ERA under 4.00. What I am getting at here is that you don’t really know what kind of pitcher Price will be as a starter in his first big league season. Heck, you don’t even know if he’ll break camp with the Rays. The safer picks remain with any of the three guys listed above. Price probably won’t strike out 180 like these guys will. Price might not get double digit wins or keep his ERA under 4.00 for an entire season. But Dempster, Johnson, and Greinke most likely will.

In conclusion, I’m not trying to bad mouth any of these players. I think all three could become stars. I’m just not sure that their stars will rise in 2009. I also believe that in the 11th or 12th round it’s still time to take safer players. Leave the reaches and sleeper picks to the 15 rounds and on. If you want proof, ask any fantasy GM that took J.R. Towles last season in the 11th round or so how they feel that pick treated them.

It’s time for another installment of the biggest risers from an Average Draft Position standpoint. We’ll look at the hitters in this post. This data, as always, is tabulated over at Mock Draft Central.

1. Jeff Baker | Colorado Rockies | +56.2% - Baker hit 12 home runs in 299 at-bats last season but is still locked in a position battle with Clint Barmes. The Rockies decided not to go after Orlando Hudson this week, giving Barmes and Baker “a legitimate opportunity” at second base. By the looks of Bakers rising ADP it seems that mock draft participants feel that Baker’s power potential will win out against Barmes’ speed. Baker’s ADP rose from 428.08 into the 23rd round at 274.01.
2. Cody Ross | Florida Marlins | +22.7% - In Ross’s first year as a full-time player he hit 22 home runs in 461 at-bats. He’s slated as the starting left fielder going into 2009 but it could be some new BPA revelations that might be driving his value up. Ross’s ADP rose from 301.93 into the 21st round at 246.09.
3. Jerry Hairston | Cincinnati Reds | +19.8% - Hairston recently resigned with the Reds as an uber-utility man. I’ve seen reports he’ll start as shortstop until Alex Gonzalez is ready. And I’ve seen reports that he’ll be an every day left fiedler. Wherevr he plays, Hairston has value due to his eligibility at second base, short stop and outfield. Don’t forget that he also hit .326 last season in 261 at-bats before going down with injuries. Hairston’s ADP rose from 307.10 into the 22nd round at 256.43.
4. Matt Wieters | Baltimore Orioles | +15.4% - Bill James has projected Wieters to hit 24 home runs and bat .311 in his rookie campaign. Those are huge numbers for a guy who has never seen a pitch above Double-A. Wieters ADP rose from a 13th round 149.94 to an 11th round 125.89 on that very extreme upside potential.
5. Nelson Cruz | Texas Rangers | + 15.1% - In 115 at-bats last season, Cruz hit seven home runs and batted .330. This has fueled projections of Cruz hitting 25+ in 2009 with 20+ stolen bases to boot. These projections plus his seven dingers from last season are the reason Cruz is one of the biggest “sleepers” going into the ‘09 season. His ADP has risen from a 13th round 151.63 to an 11th round 131.79.

Other notables: Willy Taveras (+14.5%), Chase Utley (+14.9%), Mike Napoli (+13.5%), Chris Davis (+12.0%), Miguel Olivo (+11.5%), and Jose Lopez (+11.0%).

If you haven’t been to Mock Draft Central and gotten in a few mock drafts, you need to do that. The data used today is taken from their ADP trend report, which I pulled this morning.

Over the last week here are the hitters that are seeing the biggest upward moves in their average draft position.

1. Rocco Baldelli | Boston Red Sox | +52.4% - With the announcement of Baldelli joining the Red Sox, Baldelli has risen more than any other player in baseball over the last week. His ADP was 420.84 and is now 276.08 placing him in the 23rd round.
2. Erick Aybar | Los Angeles Angels | +35.0% - I suppose that charging the mound with a bat in your hand is the path to fantasy relevance. Aybar moved into the 23rd round this week at 275.04 from 371.21 last week.
3. Nelson Cruz | Texas Rangers | +15.9% - A batting average of .330 with seven home runs in his limited 115 at-bats last season squarely placed Cruz on every sleeper list around. He’ll be a household name by the time your fantasy draft comes around, so don’t over pay. Last week his ADP was 180.62, but over this past week it’s risen to 155.86 putting Cruz in the 13th round.
4. Willy Taveras | Cincinnati Reds | +14.0% - Taveras is climbing this week because he found a new team. And the Reds have penciled him (and his 65+ potential stolen bases) in at the center field position. Taveras is now being taken in the 15th round (179.23 ADP) instead of the 17th round (204.31 ADP).
5. Chase Utley | Philadelphia Phillies | +13.2% - Utley’s been hovering in the 3rd round because of his injured right leg and uncertain return status to baseball. But when he announced that he’ll be ready by opening day, the ADP started to rise from 26.58 to 23.49. If Utley is ready by Opening Day, he’s a a bargain at the back of the 2nd round.

Other hitters of note that moved well this week: Grady Sizemore (+6.4%), Jacoby Ellsbury (+8.2%), Chris Davis (+11.5%) , Matt Wieters (+10.2%), Jayson Werth (+11%), Mike Napoli (+9.7%), Jose Lopez (+11.9%), Fred Lewis (+11.6%), Jason Kubel (+11.4%), Mark Ellis (+13.2%), and Matt Joyce (+13.2%)

Here are two notes about catching prospects from Arizona Fall League action.

• Baltimore’s top prospect Matt Wieters is following up a 2008 minor league season, where he hit a combined 27 home runs and batted .355 in Advanced-A and Double-A, with a good showing in the Arizona Fall League. In 33 at-bats he’s .333/.463/.455 with two doubles, a triple, and five RBI. He’s also throwing out catchers at a pleasing rate and started at catcher for the National Rising Stars in the recent Rising Stars Showcase.
• Atlanta prospect Tyler Flowers had Braves fans whispering his name last Spring Training as he previewed his power potential. He didn’t make the big club, but he did belt 17 home runs for Advanced-A Myrtle Beach. He’s showing off again this off-season in the AFL as he’s hit five home runs in nine games and is batting .467/.543/1.100.