Crooked Pitch

It’s time for another installment of movers and shakers on the Mock Draft Central Average Draft Position Report.

Headed Up

• Andy Pettitte | New York Yankees | +7.7% - You knew the Pettitte re-signing would begin his slow rise in ADP. This is his second consecutive week with a 7+ percentage point rise. He’s now into the 23rd round at 276.76 from 298.00.
• Ryan Braun | Milwaukee Brewers | +7.1% - Braun is firmly entrenching himself in the first round as he goes from an ADP of 10.41 to 9.72.
• Ian Kinsler | Texas Rangers | +4.1% - There has been much debate so far about which second baseman (Utley, Pedroia or Kinsler) deserves to be the highest ranked at his position. This week it was Kinsler as he went from an ADP of 11.65 to 11.19 and was the only one of the three to rise in ADP. (for what it’s worth, I disagree and rank Kinsler third out of these guys)
• Grant Balfour | Tampa Bay Rays | +3.8% - Balfour just penned a one-year contract with the Rays and had a 1.54 ERA with 82 strikeouts in 58.1 innings of work. He’s a superb set-up man and a must own if your league uses holds. He’s up to a 290.84 ADP from 301.86.
• Matt Wieters | Baltimore Orioles | +3.2% - Wieters climbed last week from a mid-11th-round 127.36 to an early 11th round 123.45. All without seeing a Major League pitch.
• Tim Lincecum | San Francisco Giants | +3.0% - Lincecum has almost climbed into the second round as he’s sitting at 26.05 from an ADP of 26.82. Santana is still the highest ranked pitcher on the board at 18.58, but I’m not sure that I wouldn’t take Lincecum before him.

Other noteables: James Shields (+2.0%) and Brandon Lyon (+2.7%)

Headed Down

• Melvin Mora | Baltimore Orioles | -6.1% - Is it Mora’s age (36) or the Orioles addition of Wiggington that had fantasy GM’s selecting Mora later in mock drafts? His ADP dropped from a 17th round 204.14 to a 19th round 217.34.
• Matt Holliday | Oakland A’s | -6.0% - Holliday moved last week from an ADP of 13.37 to 14.23. It looks as if he’s completely out of contention for a first round selection, which is probably as it should be since he’s no longer hitting in Coors Field.
• Mike Jacobs | Kansas City Royals | -5.6% - A crowded Royals first base depth chart and his inability to het lefties migt have spawned his drop to an ADP in the 22nd round of 263.05 from the 21st round 248.37 he was at last week.
• Ubaldo Jimenez | Colorado Rockies | -4.2% - Jimenez just rose 5.6% last week after signing a new deal and now drops out of the 23rd round to 282.36 from 270.55 this week. WTF???
• Chien-Ming Wang | New York Yankees | -3.2% - He’s not a strikeout threat or a very good base runner, but Wang, if healthy, should perform better than his ADP of 215.35 (19th round) predicts. Last week he fell from 208.37 (18th round).
• John Smoltz | Boston Red Sox | -3.0 - Smoltz fell from an ADP of 260.48 to 268.64 last week. Are February mock drafters finally realizing that Smoltz is in no hurry to hit the mound in Fenway? The Red Sox are going to make 125% sure that Smoltz is healthy and only care about him helping out in the stretch run and the playoffs.

Other noteables: Ryan Howard (-5.1%), Jason Giambi (-4.4%), Mark DeRosa (-4.0%), Alex Rodriguez (-3.8%), Jorge Cantu (-3.1%) and Justin Upton (-3.0).

For the most part, MLB teams are entering Spring Training with their third base position set. There are a few battles going on; Buscher versus Harris in Minnesota, Blum vesus Boone in Houston (yuck) and McPherson versus Helms in Florida. When those teams make decisions regarding the hot corner, I’ll update this list.

Also, expect Wiggington to make a splash on this list when he signs.

Here are the 2009 fantasy third base rankings:

1. David Wright | New York Mets - Wright will contribute in all five categories and should be considered a top four overall fantasy stud. He and A-Rod a very closely ranked, but Wright’s numbers should surpass A-Rod’s this season.
2. Alex Rodriguez | New York Yankees - A-Rod is also a five category contributor who shoul dbe taken with one of the first four picks in any fantasy draft where salary doesn’t play a part. Going with A-Rod or Wright could just be a matter of which NY team you like better.
3. Aramis Ramirez | Chicago Cubs - He’s reached triple digits in RBI the last three years, he’s a lock for 25+ home runs, and his batting average doesn’t hurt you either.
4. Evan Longoria | Tampa Bay Rays - Longoria blasted 27 home runs in only 448 at-bats in ‘08 easily deserved the AL Rookie of the Year award, and top five placement here. Two worries: His wrist injuries and his subsequent power drop off in the second half. If those two issues are fixed for ‘09, expect big things.
5. Chipper Jones | Atlanta Braves - Prior to the ‘08 season the only goal Chipper set for himself was to reach 150 games played. He did not get there, but put up one damned fine season at the plate hitting .364 and winning a batting title. Don’t expect a batting average repeat or 150 games played, but you can safely expect Jones to outperform most third basemen with fewer at-bats. (Read: Jones + lower tiered 3B = fantasy goodness)
6. Garrett Atkins | Colorado Rockies - Now that Atkins seems to be staying put this off-season in Colorado, you can grab him right around here amongst third basemen. But remember this; Atkins hit .342 at home and .233 on the road. If his ticket gets punched to another MLB city at the trade deadline, his fantasy valur will plummit like your 401(k).
7. Chone Figgins | Los Angeles Angels - Figgins is the first third baseman who doesn’t have any power potential whatsoever. You grab Figgins for his stolen base skills. He’s been limited by injuries to right at 115 games the last two seasons and he stole 41 and 34 bases respectively. If healthy, a 150+ game season out of Figgins could produce 50+ stolen bases, easily.
8. Edwin Encarnacion | Cincinnati Reds - Loved the 60% increase in home runs (16 to 26). Hated the 38 point decrease in batting average. The slide in batting average could have a little something to do with a 26.4% hit rate (career norm is 29.5%).  That being said, if his average comes back up and his power sticks around you’ve got yourself a great option. Also remember that Encarnacion is entering his 27-year-old season.
9. Ryan Zimmerman | Washington Nationals - Zimmerman missed almost two months in ‘08 and still put up decent numbers. He hit .306 in the second half and blasted 5 home runs in the final month of the season. The end of the year power output could spell good things to come in ‘09. Plus, he’s only going to be 25.
10. Adrian Beltre | Seattle Mariners - Beltre’s 77 RBI were a far cry from the 99 he posted in ‘08 with similar home run totals. The Mariners had a tough season and it played a part in Beltre’s run production. There’s not much to suggest the M’s will fix anything for ‘09, but Beltre should produce similarly to ‘08.
11. Mark Reynolds | Arizona Diamondbacks - Reynolds managed to strike out 204 times in 2008 leading to an abysmal .239 batting average. However, he did have 28 home runs and 97 RBI. To stomach Reynolds’ special plate awareness you’d better surround him with extremely high average hitters. Another precursor to doom: Reynold’s second half numbers were far worse than his first half. He may be regressing.
12. Troy Glaus | St. Louis Cardinals - Glaus hit 27 home runs and drove in 99 in 544 at-bats last year. He’d be rankied in the top 10 of this list if he weren’t going ot be out until at least mid-May following surgery.
13. Alex Gordon | Kansas City Royals - Gordon upped his walk rate and lowered his strikeout rate in ‘08 and those things make me happy. His batting average rose 13 points in response; all while hitting more home runs. Gordon should continue growing as a hitter in ‘09 and when he does, will become a top ten third baseman.
14. Mark DeRosa | Cleveland Indians - DeRosa’s batting average dropped in ‘08 as his strikeout rate rose and his hit rate dropped. He’s 34-years-old and his days of hitting 20+ home runs are gone. But, his multi-position eligibilty really increases his fantasy value, so draft him and enjoy DeRosa as an outfielder, second baseman or third baseman.
15. Melvin Mora | Baltimore Orioles - Mora’s second half of 2008 sealed many fantasy championships. Heck, he was picked off the waiver wire in a lot of leagues. That being said, you’re most likely going to be spending too much or drafting him too high in 2009. He’ll still hit 17-20 home runs, but don’t expect triple digit RBI any more.
16. Mike Lowell | Boston Red Sox - Lowell will not hurt your fantasy team at all, but he’s showing many signs of age and his days of getting 500+ at-bats seem long gone. Expect somethin gin the neighborhood of 15 home runs and 75 RBI with a .270 batting average. You should also draft another third baseman to play when Lowell inevitably hits the DL.
17. Michael Young | Texas Rangers - His .280+ with double digit home runs and stolen bases make him a top ten short stop. As a third baseman he’s not quite so valuable. After a week or so, he’ll be eligible at short stop, third base, middle infield and corner infield. That kind of versatility is somewhat valuable.
18. Kevin Kouzmanoff | San Diego Padres - His plate discipline took a turn for the worse in ‘08 as his walk rate dropped and his strikeout rate rose. As a result his batting average dropped by 15 points. He did bring his home run total up, which is nice, but remember he plays in an extremely pitcher friendly park and reaching 23 home runs again might not be in the cards.
19. Casey Blake | Los Angeles Dodgers - Remember that Blake is 35-years-old and no longer a threat to hit 20+ home runs and drive in 80+. He has multi-positional eligibility in some leagues which drives up his value just enough to still be relevant.
20. Pablo Sandoval | San Francisco Giants - This 22-year-old hit .345 with three home runs in 145 at-bats last year. More importantly, he is eligible to play catcher, first base and third base. He’s in the lineup for good now (most likely at third) and you can expect some great things from him in ‘09. A .300 batting average with 15 home runs and 85 RBI don’t seemout of the question. Just remember that he’s young and doesn’t have a large sample size of MLB data to go on when he hits a few speed bumps.
21. Eric Chavez | Oakland Athletics - The talent is here, but Chavez is a huge injury risk. He hasn’t reached 500+ at-bats since 2005 and only had 89 at-bats last season. A healthy Chavez could hit 25 home runs and drive in 80+. An injured Chavez… well, see 2008.
22. Bill Hall | Milwaukee Brewers - Remember the good ole days back in 2006 when Hall hit 35 dingers and had a .270 batting average? Well, we now know that that season was an anomaly. Hall’s never going to produce like that again, and his .225 average last season pushed him out of mixed-league consideration.
23. Scott Rolen | Toronto Blue Jays - Rolen, just like Chavez above but not quite so extreme, can’t seem to stay healthy. If he reaches 400 at-bats in ‘09 he’ll bat .255 with 10 home runs.
24. Josh Fields | Chicago White Sox - Ozzie Guillen openly criticized Fields last season to the point of saying his skills were diminished. That’s a rough thing to hear as a 26-year-old. In only 32 at-bats he hit .156 with zero home runs, proving Guillens point. Until Fields proves he can produce at the big league evel, he’s an AL-only, late round kind of guy.
25. Pedro Feliz | Philadelphia Phillies - Mike Schmidt threw many fantasy owners a wicked curve ball last spring when he said Feliz could hit 30 home runs and drive in 100. Sorry Mike, Feliz cannot do those things and he also should be making any mixed-league rosters.
26. Brandon Inge | Detroit Tigers - Inge’s batting average has slid further than Sid Bream’s famous slide to send the Braves to the World Series in 1992. He batted .205 last season in 347 at-bats with 11 home runs and for the life of me, I can’t figure out how he’d even make it onto a fantasy roster of any type.

Here are the fantasy baseball rankings for the top ten third basemen for the 2008 season. I will also list the predictions from the pre-season at the bottom of this post for comparison.

1. David Wright, New York Mets - Wright is just a man among boys at the third base position. He does it all! 115 runs | 33 HR | 124 RBI | 15 SB | .302
2. Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees - It’s just nasty to consider 2008 an off year fantasy speaking for A-Rod. He’s still got first round talent. 104 runs | 35 HR | 103 RBI | 18 SB | .302
3. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers - The elite fantasy third basemen used to only be A-Rod and Wright. Now, you can add Braun’s name to that list, if only he were going to play 3B anymore. 92 runs | 37 HR | 106 RBI | 14 SB | .285
4. Aubrey Huff, Baltimore Orioles - Huff might be too old to keep these numbers up going forward. But, 2008 was one heck of a ride. 96 runs | 32 HR | 108 RBI | 4 SB | .304
5. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers - Fourteen games was just enough to qualify at third base. His numbers are so good he’d be on any top ten list, no matter what position. 85 runs | 37 HR | 127 RBI | 1 SB | .292
6. Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox - Youkilis really boosted his power output in 2008. “The Greek God of Walks” is now the total package. 91 runs | 29 HR | 115 RBI | 3 SB | .312
7. Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves - His flirtation with .400 didn’t last as long as he’d hoped. But, he proved, once again, that he’s one of the best pure hitters in the game. 82 runs | 22 HR | 75 RBI | 4 SB | .364
8. Aramis Ramirez, Chicago Cubs - Ramirez might not be hitting as many home runs as in years past, but his run production is still among the best. 97 runs | 27 HR | 111 RBI | 2 SB | .289
9. Jorge Cantu, Florida Marlins - Cantu had a breakout year in 2008, and could get better. 92 runs | 29 HR | 95 RBI | 6 SB | .277
10. Melvin Mora, Baltimore Orioles - Had a fantastic second half, but late season injuries and his age could hurt his draft status next season. 77 runs | 23 HR | 104 RBI | 3 SB | .285

Below is the pre-season ranking list, for comparison.

2008 American League Fantasy Baseball Third Base Rankings

1. Alex Rodriguez | New York Yankees
2. Miguel Cabrera | Detroit Tigers
3. Mike Lowell | Boston Red Sox
4. Chone Figgins | Los Angeles Angels
5. Adrian Beltre | Seattle Mariners
6. Troy Glaus | Toronto Blue Jays
7. Josh Fields | Chicago White Sox
8. Alex Gordon | Kansas City Royals
9. Hank Blalock | Texas Rangers
10. Evan Longoria | Tampa Bay Rays
11. Eric Chavez | Oakland Athletics
12. Melvin Mora | Baltimore Orioles
13. Casey Blake | Cleveland Indians
14. Mike Lamb | Minnesota Twins
15. Akinora Iwamura | Tampa Bay Rays
16. Brandon Inge | Detroit Tigers
17. Joe Crede | Chicago White Sox
18. Brandon Wood | Los Angeles Angels

2008 National League Fantasy Baseball Third Base Rankings

1. David Wright | New York Mets
2. Ryan Braun | Milwaukee Brewers
3. Aramis Ramirez | Chicago Cubs
4. Garrett Atkins | Colorado Rockies
5. Chipper Jones | Atlanta Braves
6. Ryan Zimmerman | Washington Nationals
7. Kevin Kouzmanoff | San Diego Padres
8. Edwin Encarnacion | Cincinnati Reds
9. Troy Glaus | St. Louis Cardinals
10. Ty Wigginton | Houston Astros
11. Mark Reynolds | Arizona Diamondbacks
12. Pedro Feliz | Philadelphia Phillies
13. Andy LaRoche | Los Angeles Dodgers
14. Jose Bautista | Pittsburgh Pirates
15. Jose Castillo | Florida Marlins