Crooked Pitch

It’s time for another installment of the biggest risers from an Average Draft Position standpoint. We’ll look at the hitters in this post. This data, as always, is tabulated over at Mock Draft Central.

1. Jeff Baker | Colorado Rockies | +56.2% - Baker hit 12 home runs in 299 at-bats last season but is still locked in a position battle with Clint Barmes. The Rockies decided not to go after Orlando Hudson this week, giving Barmes and Baker “a legitimate opportunity” at second base. By the looks of Bakers rising ADP it seems that mock draft participants feel that Baker’s power potential will win out against Barmes’ speed. Baker’s ADP rose from 428.08 into the 23rd round at 274.01.
2. Cody Ross | Florida Marlins | +22.7% - In Ross’s first year as a full-time player he hit 22 home runs in 461 at-bats. He’s slated as the starting left fielder going into 2009 but it could be some new BPA revelations that might be driving his value up. Ross’s ADP rose from 301.93 into the 21st round at 246.09.
3. Jerry Hairston | Cincinnati Reds | +19.8% - Hairston recently resigned with the Reds as an uber-utility man. I’ve seen reports he’ll start as shortstop until Alex Gonzalez is ready. And I’ve seen reports that he’ll be an every day left fiedler. Wherevr he plays, Hairston has value due to his eligibility at second base, short stop and outfield. Don’t forget that he also hit .326 last season in 261 at-bats before going down with injuries. Hairston’s ADP rose from 307.10 into the 22nd round at 256.43.
4. Matt Wieters | Baltimore Orioles | +15.4% - Bill James has projected Wieters to hit 24 home runs and bat .311 in his rookie campaign. Those are huge numbers for a guy who has never seen a pitch above Double-A. Wieters ADP rose from a 13th round 149.94 to an 11th round 125.89 on that very extreme upside potential.
5. Nelson Cruz | Texas Rangers | + 15.1% - In 115 at-bats last season, Cruz hit seven home runs and batted .330. This has fueled projections of Cruz hitting 25+ in 2009 with 20+ stolen bases to boot. These projections plus his seven dingers from last season are the reason Cruz is one of the biggest “sleepers” going into the ‘09 season. His ADP has risen from a 13th round 151.63 to an 11th round 131.79.

Other notables: Willy Taveras (+14.5%), Chase Utley (+14.9%), Mike Napoli (+13.5%), Chris Davis (+12.0%), Miguel Olivo (+11.5%), and Jose Lopez (+11.0%).

Everyone has been screaming for rankings. I wanted to wait for a while, but I’m also tired of being harassed.

Remember that it’s December 30th, and this list will surely change by the time the season starts. Also note that every team has at least one catcher on this list, some teams two.

There are some catchers who have been left off of this list, most notably Jason Varitek and Pudge Rodriguez. These players won’t be added until they are picked up by a Major League club.

Here are the 2009 fantasy catcher rankings.

1. Russell Martin | Los Angeles Dodgers - He may not hit as many home runs or drive in as many as McCann and Soto, but he scores more runs and steals bases. His ability to contribute in five categories makes him the #1 choice here.
2. Brian McCann | Atlanta Braves - McCann tied for the lead amongst catchers in home runs, finished second in RBI, and was one of three backstops to bat over .300 last season. Expect more of the same in 2009.
3. Joe Mauer | Minnesota Twins - Mauer led all catchers with a .328 batting average last season and even though his home run total isn’t in double digits, he drives in runs like a fiend and scores more than any catcher out there.
4. Geovany Soto | Chicago Cubs - Won Rookie of the Year honors and the hearts of fantasy GM’s who took a shot on the unproven youngster in the 2008 draft. Don’t expect to get Soto cheap in ‘09 but do plan on him mashing balls again, and again, and again.
5. Ryan Doumit | Pittsburgh Pirates - Enjoyed a breakout season in 2008 and sits just outside of the elite catchers of this list. There is potential for Doumit to join them by the end of ‘09.
6. Victor Martinez | Cleveland Indians - It’s unusual to see Martinez this low on a ranking list, but injuries slowed the star last year. His power should return and opportunities to play at first base some could help keep him healthy.
7. Chris Iannetta | Colorado Rockies - Broke out to the tune of 18 home runs in only 333 at-bats. This young slugger could even improve his power production for 2009.
8. Bengie Molina | San Francisco Giants - Molina led all catchers with 95 RBI, something he’s always done well. He’ll be 35-years-old this year so be wary of his ability to reach 530 at-bats again, but expect the power production to remain.
9. A.J. Pierzynski | Chicago White Sox - This guy quietly hits 13-16 home runs and bats around .270 every year. Expect much of the same this season as Pierzynski is the model of consistency.
10. Mike Napoli | Los Angeles Angels - Hit a sick 20 home runs in only 227 at-bats last season. His second half was much better than his first half, so don’t pay for full season consistency on draft day. But, do imagine what he could do with 500+ at-bats.
11. Kelly Shoppach | Cleveland Indians - Filled in swimmingly for Martinez last season. If the Indians find him at-bats or make a trade, Shoppach could improve on his 2008 numbers.
12. Ramon Hernandez | Cincinnati Reds - Was driven out of Baltimore by a top prospect, but you can expect similar numbers in Cincy.
13. Kurt Suzuki | Oakland Athletics - In his first full season, Suzuki entrenched himself as the every day catcher. He may approach double digit home runs, but his true value is his better than most batting average.
14. Chris Snyder | Arizona Diamondbacks - Hit 16 home runs in 334 at-bats last season and has even more power potential. But, he needs to improve his .237 batting average to convince the team to stop platooning him.
15. Dioner Navarro | Tampa Bay Rays - It’s unfair to compare him to Joe Mauer, but he does seem like a cheaper knock off to the Twins catcher. Beware of a slight batting average dip due to his unusually high 2008 hit rate of 32.1%.
16. Yadier Molina | St. Louis Cardinals - Did a lot of fantasy GM’s proud as you don’t usually get a .304 hitter from the waiver wire. Expect Molina’s batting average to drop a little, but not by enough to stop enjoying him as a solid #2 option at catcher.
17. Miguel Olivo | Kansas City Royals - Love his 12 home runs in 306 at-bats last season. Hate his 26.8% strikeout rate and his 2.2% walk rate. He’s probably better left to AL-only leagues unless he finds consistency and earns extra at-bats.
18. Gerald Laird | Detroit Tigers - He’s finally going to be the only guy in Detroit after fighting for time in Texas. He improved his strikeout rate last season and saw a 50+ point batting average increase. Don’t expect another gain like that, but feel free to take a late round flier as Laird might continue to improve as he doesn’t have to look over his shoulder anymore.
19. Jorge Posada | New York Yankees - Posada is 37-years-old and coming off of a major medical procedure that kills most hitters power potential. With recent additions to the team he won’t be given many opportunities to DH either. Posada is a risky pick for 2009.
20. Jesus Flores | Washington Nationals - Flores strikes out too much and doesn’t walk enough. But, the Nats think he’s their catcher of the future. He does have some pop.
21. Rod Barajas | Toronto Blue Jays - Barajas is a 33-year-old journeyman who doesn’t offer much to fantasy owners at all. His 11 home runs don’t really make up for the .249 batting average. He might even end up in a platoon situation in 2009.
22. Brian Schneider | New York Mets - Schneider gets a majority of the at-bats for the Mets because of his defensive skills. Until they replace one of these five categories with defense, Schneider is pretty useless on your mixed-league team.
23. Matt Weiters | Baltimore Orioles - Weiters hit 27 home runs in his 437 at-bats at the Advanced-A and Double-A level last season. That was good enough for the O’s to bid farewell to Ramon Hernandez, practically giving the starting job to Weiters as a 23-year-old rookie.
24. Jason Kendall | Milwaukee Brewers - Kendall had three consecutive years of hitting above .320 and stealing more than 20 bases. Unfortunately those years were 1998 through 2000. Kendall’s only fantasy value comes from his 500 plus at-bats. At that’s not worth much.
25. Jarrod Saltalamacchia | Texas Rangers - Salty had fewer than 200 at-bats last season as a forearm injury slowed him. When he was healthy he didn’t show his top prospect stuff of old. With two top catching prospects in his rear view mirror, Saltalamacchia is too dangerous to run with as your #1 catcher.
26. John Baker | Florida Marlins - Baker was impressive last season in 197 at-bats and should enter Spring Training as the expected starting catcher. His .299 batting average, good strikeout to walk ratio, and good on-base skills could lead to a nice season. But don’t expect too much power production from him.
27. Jeff Clement | Seattle Mariners - Clement will be given every opportunity to be the M’s every day catcher even though he stunk it up after being called up from Triple-A. He has a ton of potential and you could do worse than he with a last round flier for your #2 catcher spot.
28. Carlos Ruiz | Philadelphia Phillies - Ruiz is sharing at-bats behind the plate. And until he figures out how to hit higher than .219, he’ll remain useless to the fantasy world.
29. Nick Hundley | San Diego Padres - Hundley has shown some pop in the minors hitting 20 home runs in 2007 at the Double-A level. But, he’s never had a decent batting average and he showed his inability to hit Major League pitching last season as he only batted .237.
30. J.R. Towles | Houston Astros - Towles was as touted of a prospect going into last season as Geovany Soto. Soto hit 23 home runs. Towles batted .137 and was sent back to the minors. Towles should be given the opportunity to be the Astros every day catcher in 2009, but his leash will be short.
31. Taylor Teagarden | Texas Rangers - In only 47 at-bats last year Teagarden hit six home runs and batted .319. He’s still behind Saltalamacchia on the depth chart going into Spring Training. But, if he wins the starting job, you’ll see his value skyrocket.
32. Kenji Johjima | Seattle Mariners - Johjima crashed and burned last season batting .227 in 379 at-bats, finally losing his job to Jeff Clement. While Clement is a highly touted prospect, he won’t be given a lot of rope to hang himself with. Johjima could slide back into the starting role at any time. Whether or not he produces, well that’s another story.

Here is a review of this weeks best pickups as reviewed on Daily Roto Pickups. I will try to supply one from each of the following positions at my weekly review here on Crooked Pitch (C, CI, MI, OF, SP and RP). I will include their current availability that may have changed since my initial review. The reviews are how I view the player today.

C: Miguel Olivo- He is currently on a nice run and getting extra AB’s. He won’t be able to keep the spot all year unless the Royals decided to give up on John Buck this year. None of his numbers or past performance shows he can keep this up, but if he can earn the full time job he is worth owning as a #2 catcher in mixed leagues.

He is currently owned in 15% of leagues.

CI: Adam LaRoche - The annual slow start is turning around and he still is available in half of leagues so if you have struggles at 1B or CI he is ready to be owned. He is batting around .286 in May and should be around that for the rest of the year. He should also have 25 homeruns, but playing in Pittsburgh will limit the RBI chances.

He is only owned in 50% of CBS leagues.

MI: Mark Ellis - Take a look at Ellis as he has now added steals this year and is going largely on the waiver due to his average. He has pop and enough steals to make him a good 2B or MI. He has a good K rate though and his BABIP is .252 which is low enough to expect a rise in his average.

He is only owned in 42% of CBS leagues.

OF: Jack Cust - In my league he holds great value due to his ability to get on base since we use OBP instead of average. In regular leagues he is limited by his average and needs a Ichiro type average to even him out. His power is undeniable though so he should be rostered if you need HR’s or RBI’s.

He is only owned in 39% of CBS leagues.

SP: Ubaldo Jimenez - Another early season struggle by a young player. Some of his stats show he should be better than this and has had some bad luck so far. As long as they keep him out there he should pitch more like this last game against San Fran. The last number of concern is his high BB/9 which if he can improve he will be pitching like he did late last year.

He is owned in 39% of leagues.

RP: Eddie Guardado - Everyday Eddie he is not anymore, but he still has that mindset. If CJ Wilson has a few more poor outings we could see Eddie real soon. As long as they are in the playoff race they will be much more likely to go to Eddie. If they fall to far behind they will probably stick with Wilson or try some younger options like Frank Francisco

They are only owned in 9% as of this morning on CBS.