Crooked Pitch

It was a nice, calm, peaceful day in the twitterverse yesterday when @jasoncollette unknowingly kicked off a name calling, eye raking slap fest that had all the intensity of a sorority house pillow fight. Well, it might not have been that interesting, but when Jason said

Why is it that Jose Lopez is going later in mocks right now than Aviles, Uggla, and DeRosa? Lopez is going as a solid late rd value lately.

the battle began between @theroundtable, @fakebaseball and myself.

To make a very long story short(er), After multiple people got involved in the slug fest, the gauntlet was thrown and I was challenged to rank these mid-tier second basemen and to back up my rankings. Oh, and I also had to throw in Kelly Johnson too. So, here’s what I think about Jose Lopez, Mike Aviles, Dan Uggla, Mark DeRosa, and Kelly Johnson.

First off, let’s take a look at their numbers from last season.

• Lopez - .297/.322/.443 17HR, 89RBI, 80R, 6SB in 644 at-bats
• Aviles - .325/.354/.480 10HR, 51RBI, 68R, 8SB in 416 at-bats
• Uggla  - .260/.360/.514 32HR, 92RBI, 97R, 5SB in 531 at-bats
• DeRosa - .285/.376/.481 21HR, 87RBI, 103R, 6SB in 505 at-bats
• Johnson - .287/.349/.446 12HR, 69RBI, 86R, 11SB in 547 at-bats

Just looking at last years numbers their rankings look something like Uggla, DeRosa, Lopez, Johnson and then Aviles.

But now, let’s take a look at some 2009 projections and their current ADP on Mock Draft Central.

• Lopez - .282/14/74/69/5 and has a current ADP of 166.31 (late 14th round)
• Aviles - .285/12/63/72/8 and has a current ADP of 152.97 (mid 13th round)
• Uggla - .257/26/83/94/5 and has a current ADP of 61.89 (early 6th round)
• DeRosa - .274/14/70/73/4 and has a current ADP of 188.04 (mid to late 16th round)
• Johnson - .280/14/64/80/9 and has a current ADP of 219.98 (early 19th round)

You can see that mock drafters think Uggla should go first, then Aviles, Lopez, DeRosa and finally Johnson. However, by just these projections I think Uggla should go first. After Uggla you’d take Johnson, Lopez, Aviles and finally DeRosa. But, I’m not stopping with last years numbers and projections. I want to delve deeper into some numbers from these guys.

I want to look at some trends for these guys. Aviles was a rookie last year so he only has that year to go off of (unless I use MiLB numbers, which I won’t). Johnson only has two consecutive years to look at, so his trend data isn’t as solid as I’d like. But, the other three guys have three solid years of data from which I’d like to look at walk rate, strikeout rate, and home run to flyball ratios.

• Lopez - His BB% improved from ‘07, but his ‘08 4.0 BB% isn’t as high as his ‘06 of 4.1%. His K%, however, is trending fantastically from 13.3% in 2006 to 12.2% in ‘07, to 10.4% last year. His HR/F ratio is also headed in the right direction. His 8.2% in ‘08 look a lot better than his 6.4% in ‘07 and his 5.7% in ‘06. I’d like to see Lopez walk a bit more, but his strikeout rate looks really good and so does his HR/F. His fly ball rate even went up after the All-Star break last season. More fly balls + an upward trending HR/F ratio = good things.
• Aviles - Had a 4.1% walk rate, a 13.8% strikeout rate and a 8.3% HR/F ratio. Other than a weird August where he hit dramatically fewer fly balls and fewer home runs, Aviles stayed pretty steady with these ratios all season. It’ll be interesting to see if he can keep that up in ‘09.
• Uggla - He’s walking a lot more (12.7% in ‘08 versus 7.3% in ‘06), striking out a lot more (32.2% in ‘08 versus 20.1% in ‘06) and his HR/F ratio which was pretty consistent between ‘06 and ‘07 (13%) jumped a lot to 18.4% in ‘08. It may be unrealistic to think he’ll keep that HR/F ratio in the high teens, and his K% is starting to scare me.
• DeRosa - Only one of these three ratios trend in the same direction for DeRosa over the last three years. His BB% is continually rising from 7.8% in ‘06 to 12.0% in ‘08. But his K% and HR/F bounce around like a pinball. His K% went down in ‘07, but back up to 21.0% in ‘08. His HR/F ratio went down in ‘07 but back up in ‘08 to 13.7%.
• Johnson - His BB% dropped in ‘08 to 8.7% from 13.2% in ‘07. His K% also dropped from 22.5% to 20.7% and unfortunately his HR/F ratio dropped from 10.3% to 7.6%. The pop seems to have left Johnson’s b at.

In concluding this assessment, I want to add a look into their contact rates and their hit rates to get a little more info into plate discipline and any luck factors that might be in play. I’ll also mention in what round these guys should be taken. Also pay attention that from this point forward, they’ll be ranked.

1. Dan Uggla - His power potential makes him the obvious number one on this list. But, I’ve never been a big fan of his batting average. Also take  into account that he has a miserable 67.7% contact rate and was a little bit lucky with his batted balls (32.3% hit rate) and Uggla’s batting average could get worse. I think his HR/F ratio will come back down (in fact it dramatically dropped in the second half last year) which could result in a power drop off as well. Because of these fears, I wouldn’t take a chance on Uggla until the 8th round. And I might even pass him by completely in favor of the number two and three guys on this list.
2. Jose Lopez - I love the way his fly ball ratio trended upward an extra 4% in the second half last year. If he can keep that going in addition to his natural HR/F improvements from year to year you might see 20-25 home runs out of Lopez. He also has the best contact rate (89.5%) of anyone on this list and his hit rate was pretty close to normal at 31.1%. In addition to his extra power potential, Lopez has the tools to hit .300. Feel comfortable taking him in the 10th to early 12th rounds.
3. Kelly Johnson - Johnson’s power seems to be fading away, but I still like his double digit potential in both steals and home runs. He has tendancies of being very streaky, which makes him a more valuable roto hitter than a head-to-head guy. And his contact rate (79.3%) and hit rate (34.4%) don’t lend well to him approaching the .300 level at all. Johnson shouldn’t be taken until the 14-15th rounds, maybe later.
4. Mark DeRosa - This guy had a career power year at age 33 (last year). If you pay for those numbers and expect them to be around in 2009, you’re crazy. His contact rate is too low (79.0%) to make a run at .293 again and while his hit rate (32.5%) is right in line with his career average, there are way too many chances for DeRosa to bomb in ‘09. He’s not a safe pick any more and will be moving to third base in Cleveland (which will kill his value in 2010). If he’s around in the 17th round grab him as a flier, but have other options in mind if he’s not the hitter he was in ‘08.
5. Mike Aviles - What a rookie season this guy had. And those of you grabbing him in the 13th round right now are paying way too much for him. He had a hit rate of 35.9% last season, which is incredibly high. When that rate normalizes Aviles’ batting average will suffer. With a contact rate of 86.1% it won’t drop down to Uggla’ish levels, but what good are his other numbers if he brings a .285 batting average to the table? Draft Aviles in the 17th to 18th round knowing that he can’t possibly repeat his ‘08 numbers in 2009.

We’re starting double digit round numbers now. Take a look back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2,  round 3, round 4, round 5, round 6, round 7, round 8 and round 9.

• Round 10 : Pick 1(109) - @seniorcircuit - Mark DeRosa - One of my favorite guys to target this year in the draft because of his position eligibility, according to most league rules he should be eligible at 2B, 3B, and OF. But I don’t see him increasing his power numbers this season just being a steady producer at one of your infield. He’s the type of guy who won’t be an elite option at a position but won’t hurt you in the long run. Expect 85/17/80/.280 from him in 2009.
• Round 10 : Pick 2(110) - @jasoncollette - Mike Aviles - Aviles is bound to disappoint those who are expecting more of what he delivered last year but given how thin the middle infield is, the fact he qualifies at both SS and 2B make him a bit more valuable.
• Round 10 : Pick 3(111) - @dowdyism - Jose Lopez - I missed the run on the top tier second basemen, so when some of the second grouping came off the board, I grabbed Lopez. I think many of the guys in this area are interchangeable, but I really liked Lopez’s jump in SLG% while posting a career high in AVG.
• Round 10: Pick 4(112) - @therotofeed - Mike Jacobs - I think this is the first year Jacobs hits above .280, and that he gets plenty of PT in Kansas City, which incidentally has a better team than people realize. I’m looking for 35 HR too.
• Round 10 : Pick 5(113) - @sporer - Derek Jeter - I about vomited when I made it official that I had taken two Yankees in a row, but Jeter was the right pick here. He is generally overrated to the nth degree, but he almost ended up a value pick in this league of sharks reticent to fall victim to the Yankee mystique. When you draw a ton of your value from runs and batting average, you’re no longer a glamor pick, but getting a $20ish dollar value at middle infield in the 10th round is a coup. My Jeter pick came AFTER Mike Aviles was taken… that floored me. Not that Aviles was a wrong pick, more that I was in a league with players so adept at seeing past name.
• Round 10 : Pick 6(114) - @tommystv - Edison Volquez - Amazing start and then tapered off a bit. I don’t think this is a Nomo situation he hasn’t been solved, he just tired late. Ball Park is another minus, but I think my backyard would be sufficient enough to keep that changeup within it’s confines.
• Round 10 : Pick 7(115) - @xxldaddyo - Francisco Liriano - The second year back from Tommy John surgery is when pitchers are finally healthy. Although Liriano showed some signs of life in the 2H of 08 (3.91 ERA with 6 wins in 76 IP), he’ll be ready to shine in 09.  Combined with Cy Young winner, Cliff Lee, Liriano gives my team to front end Aces to provide a wicked 1-2 punch at the top of my roto rotation. And at the end of this season, Liriano will have Twinkie fans in the Metrodome simply asking, “Johan who?”
• Round 10 : Pick 8(116) - @jefeboy - Bengie Molina - Easily a top-ten catcher, if not top five, so I’m thrilled to round out a very solid IF with the Benge. I’m going to need his HRs.
• Round 10 : Pick 9(117) - @fakebaseball - Chris Iannetta - I almost always avoid first-tier catchers in drafts because they don’t provide enough offense despite the positional scarcity. In ‘09, I have as my second tier Doumit, Iannetta, B. Molina, and Napoli, with a drop-off after that. My goal is to have both catchers in a two-C league from this tier. As Doumit and Molina were already gone by my turn in the tenth, and round 10 or later is where I feel comfortable taking a tier-2 catcher, I drafted Iannetta. He’s a potentially higher-upside C who I think could even be a lower 1st tier catcher by 2010.
• Round 10 : Pick 10(118) - @TheRoundtable - Bobby Jenks - Time to finally grab a closer. Jenks was the best and most reliable of what was left on the board. If you take a look at the fact as many as 8 jobs are time shares and others could change hands, I’ll take knowing that he will be the guy at the end of games as solace.
• Round 10 : Pick 11(119) - @Angels2717 - Johnny Damon - Damon has shown that he can play at a fairly high level but hasn’t been too consistent about it. I’m looking for a solid year out of him and hopefully consistent. He’s now playing in a very stacked Yankees lineup and hopefully he’ll be at the top of Tex and A-Rod.  I’m also looking for a high average season after picking my last OF in Dunn.
• Round 10 : Pick 12(120) - @crookedpitch - Felix Hernandez - King Felix… What to say here… On the bad side of the coin he pitches for a bad team which will make wins hard to come by. On the good side he’s a strike out monster, just notched his 3rd consecutive season of 190+ innings pitched, and is only 22-years-old.

I had a really tough time naming this particular post. The point that I am trying to convey isn’t that the three players on this list are bad baseball players or that you shouldn’t draft them. I’m not trying to tell you that they’ll flop like the fish from that Faith No More video. What I do want you to hear is that when these three guys became the poster boys for sleeper picks in the 2009 fantasy draft, they very quickly became expensive. And when I say expensive, I mean Rodeo Drive expensive.

But anyway, for those of you interested, the two post titles I crossed off of the list prior to settling on what you see above are:

• “You drafted Matt Wieters in the 11th round, are you crazy???”
• “Don’t believe the over-hype”

Now let’s get on with the countdown:

The three most over-hyped players in every 2009 fantasy baseball draft I’ve read about, been a part of, or watched are Matt Wieters, Baltimore’s young catcher prospect, Nelson Cruz, the Texas Ranger’s Johnny-come-lately, 28-year-old  journeyman outfielder, and David Price, Tampa’s most promising pitching prospect.

1. Matt Wieters | Baltimore Orioles - Wieters is a beast of a young catcher who the Orioles drafted fifth overall in the 2007 draft. He stands 6′5″ and weighs 230 and, most importantly, is a switch hitter. The 2008  season was his first as a professional and he spent that time amassing 437 at-bats between Advanced-A Frederick and Double-A Bowie. Those 437 at-bats in 2008 were magical. He averaged .355/.454/.600 with 27 home runs, 91 RBI, and a 0.93 strikeout to walk ratio (76:82 K:BB). Yes, he walked more than he struck out! As fantastic as these numbers are, and they truly are superb numbers, you should have read between the lines and heard me say “He’s never logged a Major League at-bat”. Once again, he’s never seen a pitch at the big league level, not one!Even though he’s never hit in “the bigs”, the average draft position over at Mock Draft Central for Matt Wieters is 129.16. That means he’s being taken in the 11th round. He’s being selected before Chris Iannetta (144.16 ADP), another promising young catcher who hit 18 Major League home runs in 333 at-bats in ‘08. He’s also being taken before Xavier Nady (152.50 ADP) who belted 25 home runs and drove in 97 and Mike Aviles (155.68 ADP) who batted .325 with 10 homers and eight stolen bases. I would be shocked if Wieters out homered either Iannetta or Nady in 2009. And he’s certainly not going to drive in close to 100 like Nady or finish the season with a better batting average than Aviles.The 11th round, in my opinion, is still too early to take a huge risk with drafting Wieters. It’s true that he’s a high reward kind of risk. But, if he flops, your fantasy team takes a huge hit. I’d much rather go with the safer option at catcher in Iannetta if you need a catcher in the 11th round or go with more experience and power in Nady or a better batting average with Aviles.
2. Nelson Cruz | Texas Rangers - Cruz absolutely, positively tore up the Pacific Coast League in 2008. In 383 Triple-A at-bats he belted 37 home runs, drove in 99, and batted .342/.429/.695. Once he was called up to Texas he remained hot hitting .330/.421/.609 with seven home runs and 26 RBI in 115 at-bats. For those of you keeping score, Cruz hit 44 home runs last season in 498 at-bats and drove in 125.You know there is a flip side to this coin, right? Well, yes, there is.Prior to 2008, Cruz had never seen more than 307 at-bats in any Major League season. And in those three MLB seasons prior to 2008, his highest home run total was nine and the best batting average he could ever muster was .235. Once Cruz got above Single-A ball, he’s always hit well in the minors. In 2004 he batted .326 with 26 home runs. In ‘05 it was .289 with 27 homers. In ‘06 he hit .302 with 20 home runs, and in ‘07 he batted .352 with 15 homers. The minor league totals for Cruz aren’t what’s in question. It’s what he’s done once called up to MLB that worries me. In 2006 he followed up his .289/27 with .223 with six home runs in 130 MLB at-bats. He followed up his ‘07 .302/20 MiLB numbers with .235 and nine home runs in 307 MLB at-bats. Cruz hasn’t been the model of consistency or good hitting in the Major Leagues so far. There’s also the little fact that he’s turning 29-years-old this baseball season.His average draft position is 130.82, also placing him in the 11th round. I’m not saying that you can’t take a flier on Cruz and hope that his 2009 season looks more like 2008 instead of the rest of his career. What I am saying is that you should take this flier if Cruz falls to the 15th round or later. Not the 11th. Just like our conversation above about Wieters, I would still take Xavier Nady instead of Cruz in the 11th; 100% of the time.
3. David Price | Tampa Bay Rays - Price saw his first professional baseball action in 2008 after an illustrious career at Vanderbilt. The Rays took Price with the first pick in the draft in 2007 and Price saw MLB action in 2008. It wasn’t much though. He only pitched in five games, and only started one. His true colors began to shine in the playoffs when he started saving games with the poise of a veteran. In the minors in 2008 Price saw action from Advanced-A all the way up to Triple-A. His combined record in 19 starts was 12-1 with a 2.30 ERA and a 3.41 strikeout to walk ratio (109:32 K:BB). He proved that he can mow down MiLB batters. He also showed off his potential MLB skills in the playoffs.Price’s average draft position is 136.19, which places him as a 12th round draft pick. That means he’s coming off of the board before Ryan Dempster (153.20 ADP), a 17-game winner last season, Zach Greinke (154.80 ADP), who had 13 wins and 183 strikeouts, and even Randy Johnson (154.64 ADP), who may have pitched to Babe Ruth but still strikes out 170+ and keeps his ERA under 4.00. What I am getting at here is that you don’t really know what kind of pitcher Price will be as a starter in his first big league season. Heck, you don’t even know if he’ll break camp with the Rays. The safer picks remain with any of the three guys listed above. Price probably won’t strike out 180 like these guys will. Price might not get double digit wins or keep his ERA under 4.00 for an entire season. But Dempster, Johnson, and Greinke most likely will.

In conclusion, I’m not trying to bad mouth any of these players. I think all three could become stars. I’m just not sure that their stars will rise in 2009. I also believe that in the 11th or 12th round it’s still time to take safer players. Leave the reaches and sleeper picks to the 15 rounds and on. If you want proof, ask any fantasy GM that took J.R. Towles last season in the 11th round or so how they feel that pick treated them.

There are  a few position battles going on that will effect these rankings up until the point they are decided. There’s Punto and Harris battling it out in Minnesota. The Angels are looking at both Aybar and Izturis and Cincinnati is dealing with Gonzalez versus Keppinger. Until winners are announced in those races, they’re not making the list.

Here are the 2009 fantasy short stop rankings:

1. Hanley Ramirez | Florida Marlins - This 30/30 guy is a stud and will be off the draft board before your pick; unless you’re picking first. He just turned 25 and won’t be dropping off any time soon.
2. Jose Reyes | New York Mets - Reyes walked less last year but saw his on-base percentage and batting average rise. He’s still very young (25) and could still improve while expecting little to no drop-off.
3. Jimmy Rollins | Philadelphia Phillies - Injuries zapped Rollins power numbers after a huge MVP season in ‘07. Even though he missed 160 or so at-bats he still stole more bases, so his speed is still there. Expect the power to return in ‘09 and get excited that he improved his walk rate and lowered his strikeout rate last season.
4. Stephen Drew | Arizona Diamondbacks - Drew finished fourth among short stops in home runs and led them in doubles last season. That leads me to believe that  there may be more power to come. This guy is closer to Rollins than most people think. If he improves again in ‘09, he’ll enter elite status among short stops.
5. Alexei Ramirez | Chicago White Sox - Ramirez finished second in AL Rookie of the Year voting and showed great pop with his 21 home runs in only 480 at-bats. He’s a sleeper to become a 20/20 guy this year.
6. Jhonny Peralta | Cleveland Indians - Peralta led short stops in RBI, finished second in doubles and third in home runs in ‘08. The only knock against him is he strikes out way, way too much. He did lower his strikeout rate in ‘08, so if that trend continues, you can expect a huge ‘09.
7. Rafael Furcal | Los Angeles Dodgers - Furcal torched pitchers and basepaths in 32 games prior to an almost season ending injury. If he can stay healthy to the tune of 600 at-bats in ‘09 at his ‘08 pace he’s a potent 20/30 guy. But the downside is huge too.
8. Derek Jeter | New York Yankees - It’s odd to see Jeter this low on the list, but father time seems to be taking his toll. That being said, .300 with 11 homers and 11 stolen bases is nothig to shake a stick at.
9. J.J. Hardy | Milwaukee Brewers - As streky of a hitter as Hardy is, he still hit .283 with 24 home runs in ‘08. A source of home runs at short stop is a boon for any league. I wouldn’t expect any drop-off and I wouldn’t argue with a further break-out prediction. He is turning 27-years-old this season…
10. Michael Young | Texas Rangers - Young is crying for a trade due to the Rangers asking him to move to third base. His ranking will change if that happens, but right now draft him here and expect .280+ with double digit steals and home runs and lots of runs scored.
11. Troy Tulowitzki | Colorado Rockies - Tulowitzki tore it up in September hitting .330 with three home runs, which excites many for a rebound in ‘09. I don’t think he’ll return to ‘07 power totals, but I would expect home runs in the high teens and an increased batting average due to his drop in strikeout rate.
12. Miguel Tejada | Houston Astros - At 35-years-old Tejada isn’t going to be breaking out anymore. He, most likely, isn’t going ot be surging either. Expect .280-.290 with 13-17 home runs and a good amount of runs scored.
13. Mike Aviles | Kansas City Royals - His .325 batting average in 419 at-bats was superb, but it came with a 35.9% hit rate. It’s tough for me to think he’ll repeat that. However, he should be right around .300 and will hit double digits in home runs and stolen bases.
14. Yunel Escobar | Atlanta Braves - Improved strikeout and walk rate and also doubled his home run total in ‘08. I can see better things to come in ‘09. Also… he’s turning 27-years-old this year too.
15. Edgar Renteria | San Francisco - At 34-years-old, Renteria is definitely on the downward portion of his career. But, he’ll bat .270-.280 with 10 homers and 10 stolen bases. That’s good stuff towards the end of your draft.
16. Ryan Theriot | Chicago Cubs - His 20+ stolen bases are real, but his .307 batting average was due to a very high 34.0% hit rate. When his hit rate is normal he’s more like a .270 hitter. Draft accordingly.
17. Jason Bartlett | Tampa Bay Rays - We’re nearing the finish line for mixed-league relevancy with Bartlett. At the end of your draft, Bartlett can be a good source of 20 stolen bases and won’t hurt you too much with a .275 batting average.
18. Cristian Guzman | Washington Nationals - Guzman gives you some nice help in batting average and you can expect him to approach .300 again in ‘09. His seven to ten home runs are just gravy.
19. Jed Lowrie | Boston Red Sox - Lowrie strikes out way too much to have a batting average anywhere close to respectability. His power potential isn’t big so that can’t help and he’s no base stealer. So, look elsewhere for late round help.
    
20. Cesar Izturis | Baltimore Orioles - Those 24 stolen bases from ‘08 look great, but remember that this guy will hit in the .250’s and won’t produce much power at all.
21. Khalil Greene | St. Louis Cardinals - Greene isn’t a .213 hitter with only ten home runs. But he is a .245 hitter with 13-18 home runs and very few stolen bases.
22. Yuniesky Betancourt | Seattle Mariners - Look to Betancourt for AL-only help. His .280 batting average is the only help you get from him as he doesn’t hit home runs or steal bases.
23. Jack Wilson | Pittsburgh Pirates - Wilson’s a .270 hitter with not much else going on. He can help in a pinch in NL-only leagues.
24. Bobby Crosby | Oakland Athletics - Is Crosby’s 10-12 home run potential worth his .240 batting average? Only if you like 8th place in your fantasy league.
25. Luis Rodriguez | San Diego Padres - Rodriguez makes this list because I fear the wrath of Padres fans if I don’t include one of their oen, not because he has any fantasy value whatsoever.
26. John McDonald | Toronto Blue Jays - Ouch! If you’re drafting this guy, you must be related to him.
27. Adam Everett | Detroit Tigers - The Tigers signed Everett for his glove. In fact, they’d prefer he doesn’t ever grab a bat at all. Unfortunately, he’s gonna come to the plate in most games, but he shouldn’t on your fantasy teams.

This is going to be the shortest list so far as I rank the players by position. Why is that? Well, I’ll answer that, as well as many other questions that I know you all will ask before you can blow up my inbox with hate mail.

B.J. Upton is not on this list, he’ll be in the outfield rankings. Alexei Ramirez and Mike Aviles will be in the short stop rankings and Mark DeRosa will be in the third base rankings. Yes, I know they have second base eligibility, but I’m placing them in their projected position. I may go back and do a multiple eligibility list, and I may not. How’s that for setting expectations?

You also have a number of position battles going on. There’s Getz versus Nix in Chicago, Barmes versus Baker in Colorado, Burris versus Velez versus Frandsen in San Francisco and Antonelli versus Gonzalez in San Diego. Until winners are announced in those races, they’re not making the list.

Also, Orlando Hudson and Jeff Kent are missing from this list as they have yet to sign anywhere. I’ll include them once they do.

Here are the 2009 fantasy second base rankings:

1. Chase Utley | Philadelphia Phillies - He’s vowed to be ready by Opening Day. That’s good enough to make #1 on this list. A healthy Utley is the best second baseman in baseball, from a fantasy perspective.
2. Dustin Pedroia | Boston Red Sox - I’m going to be the first one on my block to grow a pair and launch Pedroia up where he belongs; #2 on this list. He hits better than Kinsler, scores more and drives in more. Plus he’s the reigning AL MVP! For all that is good in this world, hear me… Pedroia should be #2 on the fantasy second base rankings!
3. Ian Kinsler | Texas Rangers - Had Kinsler played in 157 games like Pedroia, he would have surpassed Pedroia’s numbers easily. But, he didn’t. In fact, Kinsler hasn’t played in more than 130 games in his career. Until he proves that he can stay healthy, he’s riding in the back seat of Pedroia’s car.
4. Brandon Phillips | Cincinnati Reds - Phillips is a perennial 20/20 guy and I bet he brings his batting average back up towards the .270 range this season too.
5. Brian Roberts | Baltimore Orioles - This guy approaches double digit home runs, 40 stolen bases, and a .300 batting average every year. I’m thinking .290/10/38 in ‘09 and he’ll score 95 as well. Solid!
6. Dan Uggla | Florida Marlins - Uggla is the first guy on this list who doesn’t steal bases. But, he does mash the ball with the best of them. Don’t expect his average to rise above .265, but you can bank on 25+ home runs, probably 30.
7. Robinson Cano | New York Yankees - If only Cano batted in the first half the way he did in the second half, he would be elite. That just doesn’t seem likely to happen though. He should get his batting average back up to .300 this season, but the 14-18 home runs he showed us last year seem to be his benchmark.
8. Jose Lopez | Seatle Mariners - How did Lopez emerge in ‘08? Fewer strikeouts, more walks, and a reasonable hit rate. Expect ‘09 to look more like ‘08 than ‘07. I’m thinking .280/15/75.
9. Kelly Johnson | Atlanta Braves - This should be the third year in a row that Johnson quietly hits around .275 and gets fantasy owners double digit home runs and stolen bases.
10. Placido Polanco | Detroit Tigers - If only Polanco had a touch more pop in his bat or speed. If only… He’s a solid .300+ hitter and he’ll score tons of runs.
11. Howie Kendrick | Los Angeles Angels - Kendrick is the person on this list most likely to outperform his ranking. If healthy, he could easily hit .315 with 15 home runs and 20 stolen bases. He’s also just as likely to fall and rip open his spleen to further prove to Angels fans that he’ll never reach the 100 game plateau. High risk/high reward here.
12. Alexi Casilla | Minnesota Twins - This 24-year-old can burn and should be given more green lights on the base paths in ‘09. He’s probably more like a .270 hitter than .280, but could reach double digit home runs with 550+ at-bats.
13. Rickie Weeks | Milwaukee Brewers - Every year I hear that Weeks’ true hitting skills were shown in 2006 with his .279 batting average and not the garbage we see every other year. If you’ve said this recently, or in the past, I’m telling you that you’re wrong. Weeks is a .235 hitter who benefitted from an extremely high hit rate in 2006. He will, however, plant 15 homers in the seats and come close to scoring 100. You’d just better have a plan to make up for his sloppy batting average.
14. Freddy Sanchez | Pittsburgh Pirates - Sanchez always seems to get you close to a .300 average with 8-10 home runs and 75 to 85 runs scored. Nothing should be different in 2009.
15. Kaz Matsui | Houston Astros - 20 stolen bases in 375 at-bats with a .293 batting average in ‘08? Draft him late just for those numbers and jump for joy if he reaches 500 at-bats.
16. Mike Fontenot | Chicago Cubs - With DeRosa out Fontenot finally earns the starting job in Chicago. I may be going out on a limb here, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see .285 with 13 home runs, 60 RBI amd 75 runs scored.
17. Felipe Lopez | Arizona Diamondbacks - Lopez hit .283 last year and gave glimpses that he could have a power surge of sorts. A few more home runs (read:11) and stolen bases (read:15) make Lopez somewhat relevant.
18. Aaron Hill | Toronto Blue Jays -Hill is walking more and striking out less which will help him bring his average back up. Don’t expect .291 as his hit rate was abnormally high in ‘07. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see .280-.285 with 10 home runs.
19. Akinora Iwamura | Tampa Bay Rays -What you saw last year (.274/4/48/91/8) is pretty much what you get.
20. Mark Ellis | Oakland Athletics -Ellis isn’t really a .233 hitter. A hit rate plunge was likely the culprit in driving his average down in ‘08. He won’t hit much higher than .255 though, but he will blast 12-16 homers and reach double digit steals.
21. Blake DeWitt | Los Angeles Dodgers - Dewitt started over Kent in the playoffs and that trend should remain true whether or not Kent comes back. Don’t expect his batting average to head north much, but he could hit a few more home runs.
22. Luis Castillo | New York Mets - He’s slowing down a bit and striking out more, which doesn’t bode well for his only perceived value of batting average, runs scored and stolen bases. This guy  is trending downward.
23. Asdrubal Cabrera | Cleveland Indians - Strikes out a lot, but strangely walks a lot too. Until we figure that out, think of Cabrera hitting .265 with 8-10 home runs and 8-10 stolen bases.
24. Adam Kennedy | St. Louis Cardinals - Gets at-bats in St. Louis mainly because of his glove. How many of you use fielding statistics in your fantasy leagues?
25. Alberto Callaspo | Kansas City Royals - Doesn’t offer much other than a .280 or so batting average in ‘09.
26. Anderson Hernandez | Washington Nationals - If a .250 hitting second baseman with very few home runs and stolen bases fits into your fantasy agenda, this is your guy.

Today’s pitch count is 6.

1. Not that he’s on many fantasy baseball rosters, except for maybe the deepest of AL-only leagues, but Luke Hochevar left the game tonight with an undisclosed rib cage injury. Not to scream out only bad news about Royals baseball, you could do a lot worse than Mike Aviles for you shortstop or middle infield needs. He had two hits tonight and is hitting .320 over 262 at-bats.
2. Note to American League pitchers. You might want to rethink your strategy of walking Big Papi to get to Youk. Kevin Youkilis popped a two-run home run tonight, and drove in another run in the eigth after David Ortiz was intentionally walked. In the last week Youk is .364/.440/.955 with 8 runs scored, 3 homers, and 8 RBI.
3. A.J. Burnett was 5-0 over the last month with a 3.94 ERA going into tonight’s game. To say he continued to pitch well is an understatement. He threw eight strong innings allowing five hits and only one earned. He also struck out 13 batters while only walking one. Strong stuff!!
4. Since we’re on the subject of strong pitching performances tonight, let’s look at Rich Harden’s 10 strikeout night. He threw seven innings and only allowed two hits. He didn’t give up any runs or walk anyone. Harden is averaging 8.42 strikeouts per outing over his last seven starts, or 1.40 strikeouts per inning. It look as if pushing his start back so that Harden could pitch in cooler weather was a superb idea.
5. Tigers 4th outfielder Matt Joyce belted two home runs tonight and could start seeing more playing time. Also, don’t be surprised if he gets moved higher in the batting order (he currently hits 7th) when he plays.
6. Let’s add Kevin Slowey to the list of great pitching performances tonight. He struck out 12 and walked none in his seven innings of work. He only gave up one earned run and five hits tonight while earning his tenth win of the season.

For the most part, our pre-season middle infield studs have performed similarly to how we expected them to perform. Hanley Ramirez is on fire over the last month with 11 home runs (20 total), Jose Reyes leads all MLB middle infielders with 28 stolen bases, and Chase Utley leads all of MLB with 23 home runs. These were all solid 1st round fantasy baseball pickups.

However, it’s not just the household names that have shined at the MI position, especially over the past month. There are some veteran players and some newcomers who are causing fantasy GM’s to take note.

Orlando Cabrera | Chicago White Sox - Cabrera, over the last month, is batting .336 with 17 runs scored, 3 home runs, 18 RBI, and 3 stolen bases. He’s doubled his home run total for the season in June alone, and his 18 RBI in June are twice what he posted in May and 54% of his season total. Ride Cabrera while he’s hot, but be wary of his batting average spike as it might be aided by a 35% hit rate in the month if June. If his hit rate comes down, expect his batting average to as well. But, if his new power sticks around, Cabrera could still be valuable.

Alexi Casilla | Minnesota Twins - Casilla made it to the big leagues on his speed. He’s averaged 33.6 stolen bases over the last 5 seasons (MLB & MiLB combined) and had 49 in 2005 and 50 in 2006. However, in his 2007 stint for the Twins, his .222 batting average over 189 at-bats left a sour taste in the mouths of the Twins front office. 2008 has turned out differently. In 156 at-bats this season, Casilla is batting .327 with 25 runs scored, 4 home runs, 31 RBI, and 4 stolen bases. He is even 5th on the Twins in RBI, even though he’s only played in half of his teams’ games. If Casilla can keep the average up, and the RBI’s flowing, he’ll remain valuable to fantasy owners. If he starts getting the green light more on the base paths and his stolen base totals increase like we’ve seen in his minor league career, he pushes his way towards the upper tier of middle infielders.

Mike Aviles | Kansas City Royals - Aviles, a 7th round pick in the 2003 draft, is making the most of his call-up and rookie season for the Royals. He’s batting .303/.333/.505 with 17 runs scored, 3 home runs, 15 RBI and 2 stolen bases in 99 at-bats. Aviles was called up in May after hitting .336 with 10 home runs in 51 games at AAA Omaha. He also hit 17 home runs last season at Omaha in 133 games while hitting .296. His 33% hit rate so far in Kansas City is right in line with MiLB numbers, but there isn’t enough data to determine whether or not his hit rate will effect his batting average. Even though we might not have enough data yet, Aviles has entrenched himself as the Royals leadoff hitter, and should easily have a spot in AL-only and most mixed leagues, as well.