Crooked Pitch

I recently broke from my usual fantasy draft strategy when I took three starting pitchers prior to the 12th round. I usually will only grab one stud starting pitcher, one stud closer, and then fill out the rest of my staff in the mid to late rounds.

That being said, I took a look at average draft position over at Mock Draft Central and I wanted to see what kind of pitching staff I could put together of players who are going in the 14th round or later (157 ADP or greater). Taking into consideration that I have already splurged on a stud ace and a closer to start filling in my nine pitcher staff, here are the other seven starting pitchers that I can get in the later rounds.

1. Matt Garza | Tampa Bay Rays | 167.52 ADP - Garza will win 11 games or so for the Rays and should have an ERA in the 3.70 to 3.90 range with 150+ strikeouts. That’s nice for the 14th round.
2. Kevin Slowey | Minnesota Twins | 173.37 ADP - Taken in the 15th round Slowey is good for 12 wins or so and should approach 140 strikeouts. He’ll also help out with a sub 3.75 ERA.
3. Jair Jurrjens | Atlanta Braves | 182.82 ADP - Jurrjens is a 16th round pick and should win 11 games and strike out 125 or so. His ERA will stay below 4.00.
4. Justin Duchscherer | Oakland Athletics | 188.37 ADP - Also a 16th round pick, Duchscherer will really help your teams ERA as he’ll probably post under 3.25 in ‘09. He’ll also win 10 games and strike out 100.
5. Ted Lilly | Chicago Cubs | 190.10 ADP - 12 wins, a 3.80 to 3.90 ERA and 175 strikeouts would be great from Lilly in the 16th round.
6. Chien-Ming Wang | New York Yankees | 193.16 ADP - Wang should give you 12-13 wins and will keep his ERA well under 4.00. He’s not going to help with strikeouts much, but in the 17th round that’s ok.
7. John Maine | New York Mets | 229.22 ADP - Take Maine in the 20th round and you could get 10 wins, a 3.95 ERA or so, and 125 strikeouts.

If you’ll notice I had two criteria that needed to be met to land on this list. You must be projected to win 10+ games and your ERA needed to be under 4.00. If I had relaxed those standards a bit, look who else could have popped onto this list.

• Aaron Cook | Colorado Rockies | 174.23 ADP - 10+ wins but his ERA will be above 4.00.
• Oliver Perez | New York Mets | 229.25 ADP - 10 wins, an ERA above 4.00, but 175+ strikeouts in the 20th round. Wow!
• Mike Pelfrey | New York Mets | 206.23 ADP - 12 wins and 125+ strikeouts.
• Ulbaldo Jimenez | Colorado Rockies | 229.77 ADP - Another 160+ strikeouts in the 20th round.
• Mark Buehrle | Chicago White Sox | 224.55 ADP - This 19th round guy should win 12 games and strike out 130.

One of my favorite strategies in fantasy baseball is to go after former top prospects who have had a rough go of things early in their careers.  With the fantasy game evolving to integrate minor league rosters and dynasty/keeper league styles, the focus on youth by fantasy GMs has exploded in recent years.  As a result, the value these GMs put on “the next big thing” can be huge:  Those who have attempted to deal for Jay Bruce or Clayton Kershaw without giving up a top-50 player know what I’m talking about.  On the flipside, when a young stud comes up and bombs, it’s amazing how quickly owners will abandon him to move on to the next shiny prospect.

Let’s take a look at some former top-prospect pitchers and their numbers from 2008.  Some of these guys you’ll still be able to acquire at a good value, thanks to their past struggles.  Others may provide an opportunity to move while they are still appealing to another bargain-hungry GM.

Gavin Floyd - Since entering the league in 2004, the former BA Top-10 prospect has struggled mightily.  This year, however, his 3.19ERA and 1.10WHIP over 90.1IP are making this look like a breakout season for the 25-year-old.  If you’ve got this guy, then you’re the envy of your keeper leaguemates.  Or so you hope.

Floyd’s allowing a miniscule 12.8% LD% this year, resulting in that incredibly low BABIP.  A pitchers’ opponent LD% and BABIP are not repeatable skills, they are luck-based, primarily.  This is not sustainable.
Verdict: Cash in on Floyd before he hits the mother of all corrections.

Zack Greinke - After dropping a 3.97ERA and 1.17WHIP on the major leagues at age 21, Greinke was seen by many as a future ace.  Most of us know his backstory of mental issues by now, so suffice it to say he hasn’t come through on those projections.  After a spectacular April, he’s struggled a bit in May and June.

Looking at xFIP, it would seem Greinke’s been lucky with his 3.40ERA.  However, his control is good, and he’s striking guys out at a decent clip.   He’s also averaging over 6.6IP a start, which helps in the Win dept.  Despite the slight flyball tendencies, there’s a lot to like.
Verdict: Greinke’s not coming cheaply if you don’t have him, but I wouldn’t sell high either.

Edwin Jackson - Another guy who broke into the majors early, Edwin has struggled since his debut at 20 years old.  After suffering through years of arm problems and inconsistency, he’s looking like a league-average starter for the first time.

The one thing Edwin has going for him is a power sinker.  He’ll always keep the ball on the ground well, but there really haven’t been any signs of improvement in his numbers.  He’s missing fewer bats than ever, without much improvement in control.
Verdict: Hold.  He doesn’t have Floyd’s gaudy numbers, so he’s probably worth more to you than you’ll get in trade.  Watch the K:BB for improvement.

Andrew Miller - The #6 pick in the 2006 draft was expected to move quickly to the majors, and do well once he got there.  The first part happened, but Miller has struggled since he hit the bigs.

I’m excited about Miller as a buy-low opportunity.  He’s been inconsistent this year, but his xFIP shows that his 5.07ERA has been a lot of bad luck.  He has also been getting more ground balls lately, and is showing improvement over last year in every category–even though his WHIP and ERA make him look like a bust.
Verdict: Buy if you can.  Control may be an issue for a while, but he’s a Brandon Webb clone.

Mike Pelfrey - Pelfrey’s fastball has always landed him high on prospect lists, and in the minds of fantasy GMs.  His poor control and lack of any decent secondary offerings have limited him so far.  However, there are still fans out there for what Pelfrey’s bringing.

I am not one of those fans.  Pelfrey’s groundball tendencies are encouraging, but his lack of control and K’s show that his 4.30ERA isn’t for real.  A good breaking pitch could make him an above-average starter, but there are a lot of relievers out there you could say the same thing about.
Verdict: Sell, if you’ve got an interested buyer.

Anybody I missed that you’d like to talk about?  This is an area where you can do really well with pitchers if you make some smart risks.  Next time we’ll look at how some post-hype hitters are doing, so email me if you’ve got any questions, comments, or suggestions.