Crooked Pitch

We’re through round nine now. Take a look back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2,  round 3, round 4, round 5, round 6, round 7, and round 8.

• Round 9 : Pick 1(97) - @crookedpitch - Ryan Zimmerman - This is a risky pick here. He missed two months with a shoulder injury last season, and I’m looking for him to prove that he’s healed. His five home runs in the final month of the season and his .306 second half batting average tell me he’s ready to crush it in ‘09. At 24-years-old Zimmerman could re-emerge as a 20+ homer guy with a .300 average.
• Round 9 : Pick 2(98) - @Angels2717 - Michael Young - I like Young a lot and as the rounds go by, certain positions’ value considerably decreases. One of them is the shortstop position.  If you havent taken one of the top guy: Reyes, Rollins, etc. you got to take someone soon before your left with an Erick Aybar kind of player. He’ll be fine for this round.
• Round 9 : Pick 3(99) - @TheRoundtable - Ryan Doumit - Complete upside pick. Doumit was one of the few bright spots by the end of the season for the Pirates. For a team that was miserable, they produced solid fantasy numbers with Nady, Bay, McLouth, and Doumit. Doumit’s numbers didn’t drop off toward the second half. Normally, I don’t draft catchers this early, but with needing two, I felt that this was the right spot to grab one.
• Round 9 : Pick 4(100) - @fakebaseball - Francisco Rodriguez - Like many others who’ve played the game for a long time, I’m a believer in drafting closers later in the draft (and even punting closers altogether in head-to-head leagues). That said, when Rodriguez was still available in the 9th round, by this point the potential reward made this a pick worth making. Taking him in rounds 5 or 6 (where he’s typically been going) means you’re overpaying for ‘08. By round 9, he could return good value even with a less impressive ‘09. Yes, his peripherals aren’t what they once were, and yes, he’ll have Putz possibly grabbing some saves this year. But he’s also now pitching in the NL–no DH–and he’ll also be facing Florida, Atlanta, and Washington regularly.
• Round 9 : Pick 5(101) - @jefeboy - Raul Ibanez - A steady performer in a new ballpark that’s good for hitters. I’ll take that, in the 9th round. Supports my decision to wait on OF’s. I need to fill out the roster with 20HR guys like him.
• Round 9 : Pick 6(102) - @xxldaddyo - Jon Lester - The Second Half of 2008 says it all for Lester: 2.92 ERA, 1.19 WHIP 3.1:1 K:BB ratio. Along the way he became a great ground ball pitcher, and even threw a no-hitter!
• Round 9 : Pick 7(103) - @tommystv - Carlos Zambrano - Dominate at times, crazy at times. I’ll take the risk, the Cubbies have a good Offense so wins will come even when he doesn’t dominate. Note: Pitcher run continuing.
• Round 9 : Pick 8(104) - @sporer - Mariano Rivera - Wow, three pitchers in a row for me… that’s simply unheard of, but all three rate among my favorites to roster. Everyone keeps waiting for the other shoe to drop with Rivera, but he continually defies the odds. If he does just fall off a cliff performance-wise, it’ll be detrimental to all his fantasy owners, but there is nothing within his skills to suggest that’s on the horizon. He could feasibly have another 40-45 save season this year.
• Round 9 : Pick 9(105) - @therotofeed - Brad Lidge - He was the game’s most dominant closer last year, and he’s probably the only one with truly elite k/9 left on the board. I’d rather be taking batters at this point, but I can’t pass on best-in-categories. Let’s hope the Phillies stay strong and the Curse of Pujols stays away for another year.
• Round 9 : Pick 10(106) - @dowdyism - Jayson Werth - I don’t know what this “Twitter” thing is or how some of these “people” say that Jason Werth was “their pick”. I don’t know what they are talking about, but I promise I’m going to figure this internet thing out one day. In all seriousness, Werth is becoming a popular choice in mock drafts. He broke through last season with 24 HR and 20 SB in 482 PA, and a new contract should break his platoon status, thus the rise in ADP. I think he is good for another 20/20 season as a floor, and slots in nicely as my fourth outfielder.
• Round 9 : Pick 11(107) - @jasoncollette - Jose Valverde - Valverde has incredible skills as a closer and could be a top three guy if he cuts down on his homers. He knocked 6% of his FB rate last year but his HR/FB spike negated those gains.
• Round 9 : Pick 12(108) - @seniorcircuit - Brad Hawpe - I predict Hawpe to hopefully stay healthy and return more to his 2007 numbers. And if you draft him pray that he is not traded from Colorado. The lineup he is in is weaker with the loss of Holliday but Hawpe can rebound to put up a season of 80/27/95/.290 in 2009.

Here are the results of our third round in the slow mock draft. To see the past rounds and commentary follow the links to round 1 and round 2.

• Round 3 : Pick 1(25) - @crookedpitch - Prince Fielder - He’s not a 50 home run guy, but I wouldn’t count out 35-40 homers with 100+ RBI. Fielder is exactly the kind of pick I want here as I’m still going with my power early strategy. He’s  my first player that won’t hit above .300, but .275 ain’t too shabby for the power numbers he’ll put up. With these last two picks right in a row I grabbed a potential 60+ home runs and 215+ RBI. I’m also happy that all three of my first picks have 30+ home run potential. Did I mention I’m drafting power early in this draft?
• Round 3 : Pick 2(26) - @Angels2717 - Brandon Phillips - I gotta take the 20/20 Brandon Phillips with capability of raising that much higher.  In the third round, you got to take a guy who’s 20/20 puts him in the same category in that stat with guys like Hanley, Grady Sizemore, David Wright, Rollins and Alfonso Soriano.  As the draft goes on you just wont find the power and speed combo anymore.  After taking two power hitters, I decided to settle with some speed and with some power to go with it.
• Round 3 : Pick 3(27) - @TheRoundtable - Manny Ramirez - So my working theory is that Ramirez will be signed SOMEWHERE by opening day. If he isn’t, then me and Scott Boras are going to have a few words. Last season, he hit 37 home runs and drove in 121 between Boston and LA. Every season since 1998, except 2007, has seen him put up at least 33 home runs and 100 RBI. The way I look at it, he’s another pick that I’m going to be able to count on to produce every game he decides to play. And, yes, as a Sox fan I’m not too thrilled. As a fantasy owner, he’s a solid pick here.
• Round 3 : Pick 4(28) - @fakebaseball - Jason Bay - Since I took leadoff hitters with my first two picks, it made sense to take a middle-of-the-lineup slugger in the third round, and of course there were good, fairly valued choices here (so no reaching was required). As I have discussed more than once on my Twitter blog, I think Quentin is being overrated in ‘09, so I went with Bay as my 30 HR/100 RBI slugger (I think he and Markakis are very close in value, so I went with the higher-power choice). I could even see the possibility of Bay outperforming Holliday and Hamilton from a fantasy perspective in ‘09, though I’m not expecting it.
• Round 3 : Pick 5(29) - @jefeboy - Brian Roberts - Was glad to see him fall to me here, since I considered taking him in the 2nd round. I like to get lots of speed, since it’s a good commodity to trade later on. And I like to build my IF early and patch together an OF as needed.
• Round 3 : Pick 6(30) - @xxldaddyo - Nick Markakis -We took Nick Markakis because of his upside. Dude hit .322 in the second half last year and he’s still just a pup at 25. Thirty home runs in 2009, ya heard it here first.
• Round 3 : Pick 7(31) - @tommystv - Carlos Quentin - But with reaches like [the Markakis pick] that, guys like Carlos Quinton fall to me. Best player on my board, I’m absolutely stalking SS’s at this point, but I’ll wait for the run on the next tier, I think the next 6 on the board are all the same. Quinton on the other hand has hit 30+ and will hit 30+ again, and all of this production will happen on a team that actually scores runs.
• Round 3 : Pick 8(32) - @sporer - Matt Kemp - It’s been a mixed bag of opinions on Kemp for 2009.  I think a 2008 repeat +/- a few RBIs here or a few steals there is on tap for the budding superstar.  If he can continue to destroy lefties (.354 career) while making some improvements on his ‘08 performance vs. righties (.260), then he could be headed for a .300 season, but I’d bet more on something in the .280s.  A 90-20-90-30 season is a perfectly reasonable expectation for Kemp.  It’s hard not to love across-the-board producers like this.
• Round 3 : Pick 9(33) - @therotofeed - Carl Crawford - I picked Crawford because he’s also coming off some injuries that nagged him all year and brought down his performance.  I think he returns to his 2007 self and the upside gamble is that he turns in another season like his 2005 year.  The guy is only 27.
• Round 3 : Pick 10(34) - @dowdyism - Aramis Ramirez - This is my first mock draft of the 2009 season, and I think the rust is showing.  I still don’t feel like I’m in the flow yet.  That said, I like another 30HR/100 RBI corner man in Aramis Ramirez, especially at a thin 3B position.
• Round 3 : Pick 11(35) - @jasoncollette - Tim Lincecum - On Seabiscuit……I think he is the 2nd best pitcher this year behind Santana. He pitches in a pitcher’s park, gets to pitch in 2 other pitcher’s parks a lot this year, and the NL West has some rather putrid offenses as it stands on paper today.
• Round 3 : Pick 12(36) - @seniorcircuit - Adrian Gonzalez -I was happy to see another power bat available and filled my CI spot with Adrian Gonzalez. I can only imagine where he would go in a draft if he hit outside of Petco for a full year. I see him putting up 100/30/110/.280 for 2009.

We’re booking along now. At this pace we’ll be done with this slow mock draft by mid-June.

It doesn’t matter how long it takes as long as you learn something, or at least laugh at us a little. Here’s the results from round two; a round where we see the first pitcher taken and the first arguments brew about reach picks.

• Round 2 : Pick 1(13) - @seniorcircuit - Matt Holliday - Taking 2 guys who will be playing for brand new teams in brand new ballparks.  You can’t ignore a 5 category player in the 2nd round, who I think will bounce back and put up numbers like 2006-2007. Possible 100/25/100/25/.320 season for him in 2009.
• Round 2 : Pick 2(14) - @jasoncollette - Ian Kinsler - I didn’t think Kinsler would be there at 14 so I’m happy with him. He’s a premium player at a premium position and could finish as a top 10 player if he can stay healthy this year.
• Round 2 : Pick 3(15) - @dowdyism - Lance Berkman -A bit of a boring pick, but there is no reason Berkman can’t keep up his 30 HR/100 RBI/.300 AVG pace in 2009.  I considered both Jimmy Rollins and Dustin Pedroia here, but fell in love with the lumber.
• Round 2 : Pick 4(16) - @therotofeed - Jimmy Rollins -I picked Rollins betting that he’d return a bit more value than last year, although certainly nowhere near his 2007 numbers.  He looked at a lot more pitches last year per AB than he has in the past, and I’m guessing that it had to do with his early season injuries. He gets more aggressive this year and I think some power returns.
• Round 2 : Pick 5(17) - @sporer - Carlos Beltran -Though his home run totals have declined yearly since 2006, Carlos Beltran has raised his batting average and stolen bases yearly over the same stretch.  It isn’t easy to find $30 earners and a strong case could be made for Beltran in the late 1st round as far as I’m concerned.  I was thrilled to pick him up in the mid-second round.  He is a bona fide 4-category producer with a tremendous power-speed combo.  Prior to last season his batting average was nothing to write home about, but it wasn’t a detriment to the roster, either.  Last year’s .284 proved quite usable and it wouldn’t be out of bounds to project an average creeping up near .300 this year as the second level numbers suggest he has been through some bad luck in the AVG department the past three seasons.  With his 40-40 potential window all but closed, he is no longer a “sexy” pick, but he is as rock solid of a producer as you can hope to get when building the foundation of your team.
• Round 2 : Pick 6(18) - @tommystv - Evan Longoria -My middle infield slant comes from a place of desiring top talent at thin positions. Jimmy Rollins was my ideal here, and no I’m not a Phillies fan. After picking Rollins I was gonna take a hard look at who ever the best 3B on my board was. This would have been in the  Aramis or Chipper range. Well since Rollins was gone there was no SS with any value at this spot, so my choice came down to Pedroia for my MI spot (and a nice piece of trade bait in either Pedroia or Utley later on) or Longoria. I went Longoria mainly because I like the pop, and also because I see a solid drop off at 3rd after him because of the health concerns of Ramirez and Chipper.
• Round 2 : Pick 7(19) - @xxldaddyo - Dustin Pedroia -I had planned on taking Evan Longoria in the second round (he, Sizemore and Hamilton are the cornerstones of my regular Roto league), but with Tommystv snatching him up (who also happens to be in my regular roto league) I went with last year’s MVP Dustin Pedroia. He’s not likely to repeat his numbers from last year, but the BA is REAL and when you factor in that he has 20/20 potential and position scarcity? It was just too hard to pass up on Pedroia.
• Round 2 : Pick 8(20) - @jefeboy - Johan Santana -I really struggled with this one on many levels. No SP had been taken yet, and there are still some tasty bats out there. I considered Carlos Lee; love the dependability. Thought about Brian Roberts, but that felt like a little bit of a reach in the 2nd round. So I settled on a SP, and even then… lots of people would have taken Timmah or Sabathia, but I’ll go with the grand old master. Of course now I have 2 Mets after 2 rounds. Oops…
• Round 2 : Pick 9(21) - @fakebaseball - Alfonso Soriano -I chose Soriano with my second pick with some misgivings. I took him because he was the best-available player on the board in my mind, but my top two picks are both leadoff hitters, so I’ve started off in the hole with regard to RBI. It’s something I’ll have to try to correct later in the draft.
• Round 2 : Pick 10(22) - @TheRoundtable - B.J. Upton -I know, not the most conventional of picks with BJ Upton. I love the speed factor, and this is another guy that can hit for average on top of it. He’s getting on base, and that generates runs. The Rays lineup is only getting better, so I’ll trust him knowing that I have another pick pretty soon where I can grab more power numbers.
• Round 2 : Pick 11(23) - @Angels2717 - Carlos Lee -Taking Carlos in the late second round pleases me.  I enjoy his overall power and his batting average that keeps rising (.314 last year).  I always enjoy having a power outfielder and getting a solid one early is something I think most drafters should do.  His 100+ RBIs and a possible 30+ homers and .300+ average intrigues me in the late second round.  Especially in a fairly stacked Astros lineup, he should be racking up the RBIs.  I was tempted by either a Lincecum or Sabathia pick, but I thought I would wait a round or two to get my pitchers.
• Round 1 : Pick 1 - @crookedpitch - Justin Morneau -I’ve decided to go with power for the next few picks. Instead of arbitrarily grabbing the most home runs available, I wanted to consider the other offensive categories with this pick. In 2008, 28 players registered 100 or more RBI. Of those 28 players only 11 of them batted over .300. And of those 11 who batted over .300 and drove in 100+, seven are already off the board. With Morneau I take one of the remaining four hitters who are both RBI and batting average studs. I’ll enjoy the 20+ home runs and the almost 100 runs scored as well.

I had a brilliant idea the other day, which happens quite a bit. But unlike most of my mad scientist theories brilliant ideas, this one actually sounded good after I thought about it for a while; so I set it into motion.

With the popularity of mock drafts growing and growing, I wanted to put one together. My reasons for this were not only  to practice for a real draft, but to get the participants thoughts and strategies as they went. My theory was that if each fantasy GM wrote down what they were thinking and what kind of strategy they were employing after each pick, so many people could benefit from that knowledge; for a number of reasons.

1. You can see how a draft unfolds; which players go where.
2. You can see if more fantasy GM’s are grabbing power or speed and in what rounds.
3. You can see how many of these guys use draft strategies, and when they go about putting them into play.
4. Right or wrong, you get to hear what people think about these players and what drives a fantasy GM to draft them

There are actually tons of reasons why this is a great learning tool. So, to set this up I grabbed a bunch of tweeps (friends on twitter) and asked them to participate. It was easy to find 11 other guys and the cool thing about the mix of mock draft participants is that they come from all walks of fantasy baseball life. We’ve got experts mixed in with advanced fantasy GM’s. So, you’ll get to hear ideas from a myriad of different types of fantasy baseballers.

Without further ado, let’s talk about the first round that was just completed. The team name is also the twitter moniker for each participant. If you’re on twitter, go say hello. The commentary after the pick is from each manager. They were asked to talk about the pick and any particular strategy; if using one.

• Round 1 : Pick 1 - @crookedpitch - Hanley Ramirez - What? I have to wait 23 more picks until I get to go again??? Ouch, I had better make this pick count. Ramirez is a 30/30 stud who will also score 100+ runs easy. I can’t think of a better way to start my team off then by grabbing this power/speed combo guy who will also hit .300. At this point I’m going to wait and see how the rest of the first round and the second round play out before etching a draft strategy in stone.
• Round 1 : Pick 2 - @Angels2717 - Albert Pujols - I decided to stick with the consistency of Albert. The only off year was the one where he was injured.  His all around power is appealing to me and his ability to get on base a lot and to do just about everything.  This pick was hard based on the fact that there was a lot to choose from after Hanley: A-Rod, Reyes, Wright.  After a little time of thinking, I decided I liked Pujols’ consistency more than anything the other possibilities had.
• Round 1 : Pick 3 - @TheRoundtable - Alex Rodriguez - Rodriguez is automatic. Pencil him in for .300/40/110 without breaking a sweat. He’ll even steal 15-20. He’s the marquee player in a new ballpark, and has new found protection in Mark Teixeira.
• Round 1 : Pick 4 - @fakebaseball - Jose Reyes - I was pleased to see that Jose Reyes was available with the 4th pick. He’s proven to be a relatively reliable player at a premium position, and assuming continued good health, he’ll give me a nice leg up on the oft-frustrating stolen base category. I’ll be happy if I can get .290/15 HR/55 SB from my shortstop, because there should be plenty of power bats available in the following rounds. I know there’s been some blogosphere hand-wringing over the Mets’ new stadium, but even if the portents of team-power doom are true, it shouldn’t have a significant impact on Reyes’ value.
• Round 1 : Pick 5 - @jefeboy - David Wright - Couldn’t see taking an OF this early, and Wright seems like a good solid choice who will contribute in every category. One site lists his ADP as 4.8, so getting him 5th makes me happy.
• Round 1 : Pick 6 - @xxldaddyo - Grady Sizemore - I have to go with Grady Sizemore. He became a 30-30 guy last year and I think has the potential to be a 40-40 guy. Those guys don’t grow on trees (especially if they arent on steroids). Entering prime Age 26 season.
• Round 1 : Pick 7 - @tommystv - Chase Utley - I’m a sucker for building a solid Middle Infield early. 1st Base and OF I tend to pass on until the right player slips because those positions are so much deeper. If I would have gone 1B it would have been Teixera and OF would have been Ryan Braun, I really think both of those guys are gonna have nice seasons. The biggest money league I play in allows position eligibility if the player plays one game at the position…yes, Albert Puljos was 2nd base eligible last year. If that were the case here I would have given serious consideration to Miguel Cabrera for possible dual 1st/3rd and Ryan Braun for possibly getting an odd game at 3rd.
• Round 1 : Pick 8 - @sporer - Miguel Cabrera - Considering I nearly ranked Miguel Cabrera ahead of Albert Pujols in my 1B rankings, he was a no-brainer for me when he fell to 8th.  I had him 7th in my top 10 immediately after the season and his placement drew the most comments, but with mock season in full gear he has been a consistent first rounder.  He showed so much in the second half of last season and the 40-home run season that has eluded him thus far may very well be on the horizon.  He is a four category stud that belongs in the top half of the first round.  As such, I was happy to steal him at eight.
• Round 1 : Pick 9 - @therotofeed - Ryan Howard - With Miguel Cabrera off the board, I had to go with Ryan Howard at the ninth position.  Not that I’m hanging my head too low - I never really feel bad about rostering a guy who consistently cranks out 45+ HR seasons, and I gotta think that this year he hits at least 15-20 BA pts higher than last season. But I still wanted Miggy.
• Round 1 : Pick 10 - @dowdyism - Josh Hamilton - I normally look for a strong infield pick in the first round, but since most of my targets are gone at the 10 spot, I grabbed Josh Hamilton.  I’m missing out on some steals by not going with Matt Holliday or Ryan Braun, but as loaded as the top of the Texas order is, I am banking on big numbers across the board with Hamilton.
• Round 1 : Pick 11 - @jasoncollette - Ryan Braun - Pretty happy to have Braun to me at the 11th pick. I was not expecting it but you have to take a 5 category player in the first round.
• Round 1 : Pick 12 - @seniorcircuit - Mark Teixeira -Got a reliable, power first baseman who will have plenty of RBI chances in the Yankees batting order. He seems happy (and his wife too) to be playing for a contending team in a brand new ballpark. I see him putting up 100/30+/110/.300 season.

With that, round one is complete. Let’s hear your commens and/or questions.