Crooked Pitch

Today Steve from Senior Circuit (follow him at @seniorcircuit) shares some insight into how your NL-only auction strategy might have to change because so many big named free agents are still unsigned.

With a majority of my leagues being of the National League format I find that this season has been more difficult to plan for than others.  With the economic struggles of America not only affecting myself, and also family and friends, it is also causing teams in Major League Baseball to take a wait and see approach to signing “big name, big dollar” free agents. This has caused some frustration amongst fantasy owners who do not want to spend big or draft early a player who may not even play in their league format.  As of right now the biggest names may not sign until the beginning of spring training or perhaps the middle of spring training or later.  This causes concern in that taking a risk on an unsigned player, who would greatly help your fantasy team, may leave you with no value at a certain position and you would have used a high pick or a substantial amount of your budget to get the player.

Lets jump back to 2006, when Roger Clemens decided to wait and sign with the Houston Astros in late May and began pitching for them in early June.  As I entered my main National League only fantasy league all the owners knew of the risk if they spent money on Clemens and then he had signed with the Texas Rangers, Boston Red Sox, or New York Yankees.  Our rules stated that the player pool could only consist of players that were on a team’s official 40-man roster, or on one of their official minor league rosters, or was a free agent for them to be eligible for the auction.  So any of us who had interest in Clemens knew that whatever we spent for his services maybe in jest, as he could just as likely sign with an American League team and leave us with part of our budget spent on an empty roster spot.

I thought that it was a risk I was willing to take, even if it was for part of a season.  This was still the same Clemens who posted 13 wins, a 1.87 ERA, and 185 strikeouts in 2005, so he was especially valuable with decent starters being at a premium in NL-only leagues. There were only 3 of us who were serious about bidding on Clemens when his name was mentioned and we worried how high his price would be if each of us believed that he would definitely sign with a National League team. I ended up buying Clemens for $5 for the 2006 season, even though I expected him to go higher, no other team wanted to out bid me for a player who may not even produce for their team.  I thought that this was a steal no matter where he played and he could be a strong #2 starter for only $5.  He ended up posting 7 wins, a 2.30 ERA, and 102 strikeouts in the latter half of the 2006 season.

This illustration suggests that I would be willing to take that risk again.  But only if I see that player going far below market value or I am convinced he will sign to a team within my league format.  In National League only leagues, if Manny Ramirez is going for less than $20 you should jump on the bidding up till the $20 mark.  Getting his numbers in your lineup at such a discount may far out weigh the risk involved if he were to sign with an American League team.  It is a risk I would be willing to take in order to get a great fantasy performer at a discounted price and isn’t that the point of a draft or auction?  We all take risks in every draft or auction, picking players we feel will have a breakout season, players coming off injuries, and young players who may or may not develop fantasy value.  Using strategy, counting on some luck, and taking these types of risks is what can enable you to win in your fantasy league.

I would love to hear from more players of single league formats and get their thoughts on the topic or if they have devised league rules to deal with this issue.