Crooked Pitch

It’s round eleven. This is the portion of the draft where teams really look to fill needs. It’s also where a lot of fantasy GM’s will start taking HUGE chances on sleepers. Take a look back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2,  round 3, round 4, round 5, round 6, round 7, round 8, round 9 and round 10.

• Round 11 : Pick 1(121) - @crookedpitch - Joakim Soria - The only reason Soria isn’t ranked higher on relief pitcher draft lists is that he pitches for the Royals. By overlooking him you’re overlooking one of, if not, the most dominant closer in the game. I was happy to make him my first closer drafted.
• Round 11 : Pick 2(122) - @Angels2717 - Xavier Nady - Taking back-to-back Yankees outfielders isn’t an ideal move for me, but I just realized how explosive Nady was in that last half of the season this past year. He was great in the meat of that order and now he’ll be probably hitting behind two powerhouse infielders (A-rod and Tex). Looking for a repeat of that great last half of the season.
• Round 11 : Pick 3(123) - @TheRoundtable - Jorge Cantu - Cantu makes you actually figure out what you believe. If you think last year was an anomaly, then you avoid him. If you think that he can build on that, and look at the fact he had some success even with Tampa, you’re willing to buy on this one now. I looked at corners here with the feeling that there is much more depth in pitching and outfield that I can grab in later rounds.
• Round 11 : Pick 4(124) - @fakebaseball - Mike Napoli - Choosing Napoli here, which I’m sure some of my league-mates would consider a reach, is an example of trusting your own rankings and research, and also how decisions made early in draft can impact later decisions. As mentioned in my 10th-round analysis, I project Napoli as a 2nd-tier catcher in ‘09, and by this point in our draft, he was the only catcher left from that tier. Usually I’m more fixated on grabbing pitching by now, but since I uncharacteristically chose three pitchers in the first ten rounds because of the nature of this particular draft, I felt comfortable taking a non-pitcher here if needed. Napoli usually falls significantly further in drafts than rd 11, but I didn’t want to take the risk of waiting, especially since I do see Napoli–despite significant misgivings on my part–as returning positive value even taken this high in a draft, and I didn’t like the alternatives should I wait and not end up with him on my roster. (Sure, the  temptation was there for Wieters, but there are too many unknowns with him, and the contrarian in me cringes at the defeaning hype surrounding him - when something seems too good to be true, it usually is…)
• Round 11 : Pick 5(125) - @jefeboy - Milton Bradley - See Huff, Aubrey. Another guy who make have peaked in 2008, and one with health risks at that. But at this point in the draft, he’s worth taking a shot on. He could be energized by Wrigley. The next 2 OFs taken were Milledge and C Young… younger, safer, maybe, but I’ll take my chances with Milton. .290 15 HR, anything more and I’ll be thrilled.
• Round 11 : Pick 6(126) - @xxldaddyo - Zach Greinke - This was probably the toughest decision I had to make thus far. I knew I would be going SP (yet again) but I was torn between Burnett, Gallardo and Greinke. In fact I initially selected Gallardo and then when the website asked me to confirm my decision, I hesitated, reconsidered and ultimately went with Greinke. Gallardo should be healthy and should be the ace of the Brewers (provided that he IS INDEED fully healthy), and AJ Burnett had a great 2008. But Zack Greinke has become a ground ball pitcher and come of age. He struck out more than a batter an inning in the 2H and had a 3.25 ERA during that same split. Kreikeys its Greinke!
• Round 11 : Pick 7(127) - @tommystv - Justin Verlander - Terrible ‘08, showed flashes of bouncing back after all-star break, but faltered shortly there after. ‘09 is going to be different, so I’ll take his upside in RD 11. I’m also counting on Detroit meeting ‘08 expectations in ‘09.
• Round 11 : Pick 8(128) - @sporer - Chris Young - I don’t have kids yet, but I hope that the first time they feel the ting of that hot stove, they leave it alone to avoid being burned again. Of course, how can I expect them to learn such a lesson when I myself am incapable of such cognitive learning? I scooped up Young everywhere I could last year expecting improvements on 2007’s 32 HR/27 SB performance. At the very least, I hope for similar HR-SB numbers with an uptick in AVG and RBI. I got the latter two pieces of the puzzle, but 10 fewer HRs and 13 fewer SBs to go with the slight gains. At just 25, the 30-30 potential remains at the forefront for Young.
• Round 11 : Pick 9(129) - @therotofeed - Placido Polanco - This was my worst pick in terms of timing (rrrrreach), though I love Placido Polanco as a means to raise cheap R and BA. I would blame this on the queue mechanism, but that would be a copout. For the record, I refuse to admit that Placido Polanco is not the name of the umpire in Naked Gun who tries to kill the Queen.
• Round 11 : Pick 10(130) - @dowdyism - Brian Fuentes - Fuentes takes over as the closer for a team that won 100 games last season, and is set up nicely for 90 plus wins in 2009. I heard some guy on their team last season had 62 saves in the same role, so penciling in Fuentes for 40-45 should be a pretty safe bet.
• Round 11 : Pick 11(131) - @jasoncollette - Joba Chamberlain - I’m glad he was still here in the 11th as I’ve seen him taken in the 8th. Draft him for solid skills in 150 innings and you won’t be disappointed. Expect more than that and you will be.
• Round 11 : Pick 12(132) - @seniorcircuit - Yovani Gallardo - As my second pitcher taken, I look for someone with a big upside. Before his injury experts were predicting a season of 13-15 wins and upwards of 180 Ks. His injury had nothing to do with his pitching mechanics and with a healthy season in 2009, I see him putting together a 14/177/3.65/1.27.

This is going to be the shortest list so far as I rank the players by position. Why is that? Well, I’ll answer that, as well as many other questions that I know you all will ask before you can blow up my inbox with hate mail.

B.J. Upton is not on this list, he’ll be in the outfield rankings. Alexei Ramirez and Mike Aviles will be in the short stop rankings and Mark DeRosa will be in the third base rankings. Yes, I know they have second base eligibility, but I’m placing them in their projected position. I may go back and do a multiple eligibility list, and I may not. How’s that for setting expectations?

You also have a number of position battles going on. There’s Getz versus Nix in Chicago, Barmes versus Baker in Colorado, Burris versus Velez versus Frandsen in San Francisco and Antonelli versus Gonzalez in San Diego. Until winners are announced in those races, they’re not making the list.

Also, Orlando Hudson and Jeff Kent are missing from this list as they have yet to sign anywhere. I’ll include them once they do.

Here are the 2009 fantasy second base rankings:

1. Chase Utley | Philadelphia Phillies - He’s vowed to be ready by Opening Day. That’s good enough to make #1 on this list. A healthy Utley is the best second baseman in baseball, from a fantasy perspective.
2. Dustin Pedroia | Boston Red Sox - I’m going to be the first one on my block to grow a pair and launch Pedroia up where he belongs; #2 on this list. He hits better than Kinsler, scores more and drives in more. Plus he’s the reigning AL MVP! For all that is good in this world, hear me… Pedroia should be #2 on the fantasy second base rankings!
3. Ian Kinsler | Texas Rangers - Had Kinsler played in 157 games like Pedroia, he would have surpassed Pedroia’s numbers easily. But, he didn’t. In fact, Kinsler hasn’t played in more than 130 games in his career. Until he proves that he can stay healthy, he’s riding in the back seat of Pedroia’s car.
4. Brandon Phillips | Cincinnati Reds - Phillips is a perennial 20/20 guy and I bet he brings his batting average back up towards the .270 range this season too.
5. Brian Roberts | Baltimore Orioles - This guy approaches double digit home runs, 40 stolen bases, and a .300 batting average every year. I’m thinking .290/10/38 in ‘09 and he’ll score 95 as well. Solid!
6. Dan Uggla | Florida Marlins - Uggla is the first guy on this list who doesn’t steal bases. But, he does mash the ball with the best of them. Don’t expect his average to rise above .265, but you can bank on 25+ home runs, probably 30.
7. Robinson Cano | New York Yankees - If only Cano batted in the first half the way he did in the second half, he would be elite. That just doesn’t seem likely to happen though. He should get his batting average back up to .300 this season, but the 14-18 home runs he showed us last year seem to be his benchmark.
8. Jose Lopez | Seatle Mariners - How did Lopez emerge in ‘08? Fewer strikeouts, more walks, and a reasonable hit rate. Expect ‘09 to look more like ‘08 than ‘07. I’m thinking .280/15/75.
9. Kelly Johnson | Atlanta Braves - This should be the third year in a row that Johnson quietly hits around .275 and gets fantasy owners double digit home runs and stolen bases.
10. Placido Polanco | Detroit Tigers - If only Polanco had a touch more pop in his bat or speed. If only… He’s a solid .300+ hitter and he’ll score tons of runs.
11. Howie Kendrick | Los Angeles Angels - Kendrick is the person on this list most likely to outperform his ranking. If healthy, he could easily hit .315 with 15 home runs and 20 stolen bases. He’s also just as likely to fall and rip open his spleen to further prove to Angels fans that he’ll never reach the 100 game plateau. High risk/high reward here.
12. Alexi Casilla | Minnesota Twins - This 24-year-old can burn and should be given more green lights on the base paths in ‘09. He’s probably more like a .270 hitter than .280, but could reach double digit home runs with 550+ at-bats.
13. Rickie Weeks | Milwaukee Brewers - Every year I hear that Weeks’ true hitting skills were shown in 2006 with his .279 batting average and not the garbage we see every other year. If you’ve said this recently, or in the past, I’m telling you that you’re wrong. Weeks is a .235 hitter who benefitted from an extremely high hit rate in 2006. He will, however, plant 15 homers in the seats and come close to scoring 100. You’d just better have a plan to make up for his sloppy batting average.
14. Freddy Sanchez | Pittsburgh Pirates - Sanchez always seems to get you close to a .300 average with 8-10 home runs and 75 to 85 runs scored. Nothing should be different in 2009.
15. Kaz Matsui | Houston Astros - 20 stolen bases in 375 at-bats with a .293 batting average in ‘08? Draft him late just for those numbers and jump for joy if he reaches 500 at-bats.
16. Mike Fontenot | Chicago Cubs - With DeRosa out Fontenot finally earns the starting job in Chicago. I may be going out on a limb here, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see .285 with 13 home runs, 60 RBI amd 75 runs scored.
17. Felipe Lopez | Arizona Diamondbacks - Lopez hit .283 last year and gave glimpses that he could have a power surge of sorts. A few more home runs (read:11) and stolen bases (read:15) make Lopez somewhat relevant.
18. Aaron Hill | Toronto Blue Jays -Hill is walking more and striking out less which will help him bring his average back up. Don’t expect .291 as his hit rate was abnormally high in ‘07. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see .280-.285 with 10 home runs.
19. Akinora Iwamura | Tampa Bay Rays -What you saw last year (.274/4/48/91/8) is pretty much what you get.
20. Mark Ellis | Oakland Athletics -Ellis isn’t really a .233 hitter. A hit rate plunge was likely the culprit in driving his average down in ‘08. He won’t hit much higher than .255 though, but he will blast 12-16 homers and reach double digit steals.
21. Blake DeWitt | Los Angeles Dodgers - Dewitt started over Kent in the playoffs and that trend should remain true whether or not Kent comes back. Don’t expect his batting average to head north much, but he could hit a few more home runs.
22. Luis Castillo | New York Mets - He’s slowing down a bit and striking out more, which doesn’t bode well for his only perceived value of batting average, runs scored and stolen bases. This guy  is trending downward.
23. Asdrubal Cabrera | Cleveland Indians - Strikes out a lot, but strangely walks a lot too. Until we figure that out, think of Cabrera hitting .265 with 8-10 home runs and 8-10 stolen bases.
24. Adam Kennedy | St. Louis Cardinals - Gets at-bats in St. Louis mainly because of his glove. How many of you use fielding statistics in your fantasy leagues?
25. Alberto Callaspo | Kansas City Royals - Doesn’t offer much other than a .280 or so batting average in ‘09.
26. Anderson Hernandez | Washington Nationals - If a .250 hitting second baseman with very few home runs and stolen bases fits into your fantasy agenda, this is your guy.

Just wanted to make a short post today to highlight a guy who is becoming pretty useful in deeper leagues. Maicer Izturis got off to a rough start this year due to some bad luck on balls in play, but the skills he’s showing this season (and his SS/2B/3B eligibilty) make him a fantastic bench player in leagues where there isn’t a lot of value on the wire, especially with the glut of injuries that have struck middle infielders recently.

Let’s compare what Izturis is doing this year to a comparable middle infielder who is a starter in many leagues, Placido Polanco:

As an added bonus, Izturis has six stolen bases to Polanco’s two, and has a 78% success rate to Polanco’s 69%.

The Angels seem committed to getting Izturis playing time lately, as he’s started every game there since Howie Kendrick’s return. It’s doubtful he’ll be a 100% full-time player when Erick Aybar returns, but Maicer does have the hot hand lately, going 12 for his last 22 (and hitting .300 since May 1st) and has consistently hit in one of the top two spots in the Angels’ order. There’s not a ton of upside there, but like Polanco, it’s very likely he’ll give you a solid average and good run totals at a tough position, with the added bonuses of speed and versatility.

The Detroit Tigers will be without the use of Placido Polanco and Gary Sheffield today as they rest what ails them.

Placido Polanco has a stiff back. Gary Sheffield has a sore shoulder. Neither player will be available for the Tigers’ series finale today against the Blue Jays. How much more time they’ll miss is the question.

Manager Jim Leyland was emphatically certain about one thing, though, after the Tigers lost 5-3 to the Jays on Sunday. When asked if Sheffield would be able to play today, he replied “absolutely not.”