Crooked Pitch

One of my favorite strategies in deep leagues is to run the best four starters I can get out there every game, and fill in the rest with high-K middle relievers. I’d rather have a guy who gives me killer ratios for 75 innings than a mediocre starter who gives me 200 with a 4.40 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. You’ll usually win the ratio categories with this strategy, and if you’re far enough ahead in those, you can always pick up the occasional spot starter if you need a W or some Ks.

Dominant middle relievers can be had on the wire every year if you know what to look for. Last year Heath Bell, Carlos Marmol, and Rafael Betancourt could be picked up for free in nearly every league, and were three of the better fantasy pitchers in the game. Yahoo ranked Betancourt as the 19th(!) most valuable pitcher in ‘07, Bell the 24th, and Marmol the 39th. I grabbed both Betancourt and Marmol off the wire during the season in 20-team dynasty leagues. I missed my chance on Bell. With relievers, the stats to look at are BB:K (command), K/9 (dominance), and possibly GB% (HR prevention). ERA and hits allowed are too volatile in the small amount of innings a reliever pitches to pay too much attention to. BIP numbers, (like GB%, FB%, LD%) are pretty worthless until there’s a decent sample to look at as well.

Everyone’s seen the starts by guys like Joey Devine, Santiago Casilla, and Hong-Chih Kuo in our leagues this season, so let’s look at four guys you should still be able to find on your waiver wire:

Jared Burton: Burton made a bit of a splash last year with a BABIP-assisted 2.51 ERA in 43 IP, most after the All-Star break. This year, he’s doing it for real, with drastically improved control and K-rate. Last year Reds manager Pete Mackanin wanted to give Burton an audition at closer when David Weathers needed a rest, but who knows what the situation is now with Dusty and Frankie Cordero in the mix.
2008 Stats: 27.2IP 30H 10ER 8BB 29K (more…)

So, your ERA is ballooning like it’s full of hot air. Instead of playing the free agent spot start game until you find a starting pitcher that you can live with, why don’t you look towards middle relievers to help out with your ERA and WHIP?

To make this work, you will want to find middle relievers who have already pitched at least 10 innings, have a knockout strikeout to walk ratio, and have sub 1.00 ERA’s and WHIP’s. These guys will help bring your ERA down, and if you’re lucky, may get you a few wins mixed in. If you also grab guys who have solid strikeouts per innings pitched ratios (close to one K per IP), you won’t see a drastic drop in your strikeout category.

Here are five guys who fit the bill, and may be available in your league on the waiver wire.

• Aquilino Lopez | Detroit Tigers - He’s notched 18.1 innings of work so far and has a dominant 14:1 strikeout to walk ratio. His ERA is 0.49 and WHIP is 0.81. And for some icing on the cake he’s already been the benefactor of two relief wins. (There are some pretty good starting pitchers out there who aren’t above two wins yet)
• Santiago Casilla | Oakland A’s - In 12.1 innings of work, Casilla has 16 strikeouts and only one walk. That’s super. So is his 0.00 ERA and 0.81 WHIP.
• Ramon Ramirez | Kansas City Royals - Ramirez has a 13:2 strikeout to walk ratio in 11 innings of relief work. His ERA is 0.82 AND HIS whip is 1.00.
• John Grabow | Pittsburgh Pirates - Grabow is a lefty specialist, but he’s still pitched 12 innings so far. His strikeout to walk ratio is 11:2 and he’s got an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 0.75.
• Jorge Campillo | Atlanta Braves - Not all the pitchers in the Braves pen are injured or performing at a sub-par clip. Campillo has a 11:4 strikeout to walk ratio in 11.1 innings of work. His ERA is 0.79 and his WHIP is 0.71.