Crooked Pitch

All year long I’ll be offering help just like this in The Fantasy Inbox. Use the contact form to submit all your fantasy baseball questions and please give me as many details as you can. Including league format, roster sizes, and scoring settings will help me give you the best advice.

Today’s question come from Jon and it’s always a pleasure to answer any kind of baseball questions from you guys. Keep ‘em coming.

Q: I was offered Cliff Lee and Shane Victorino in exchange for Dan Haren and Raul Ibanez. Here are my reasons for being hesitant about Lee. His spring was AWFUL and last season was his best by far(possible fluke season??). I like him beacause his numbers were better than Haren’s , but Haren has steadily been on a climb and he is one Webb injury away from being the ace of the staff. What should I do??? Please help!!!

A: I think that you’re right to be hesitant about this deal, but maybe not for the reasons you mentioned. Yes, Cliff Lee’s ERA is a miserable 12.46 this spring, but pitchers tend to work on using different pitches in spring. Sometimes they spend a few innings just throwing breaking balls. It’s hard to gauge how good a pitcher’s spring is going by his ERA alone. Take a look at Lee’s strikeout to walk ratio. In 21.2 innings he’s struck out 18 while only walking two. That’s pretty dominant. The thing about Lee that worries me is his innings workload from 2008, which grew 80 innings from the previous year. I’m expecting Lee to still produce good numbers in 2009, but he won’t be back at the Cy Young level he achieved in 2008. Haren on the other hand excites me; and remember, he doesn’t need to be Arizona’s ace to be your fantasy ace. Haren has steadily increased his strikeout numbers while lowering his WHIP over the past three years. He pitches in a weak division with a bunch of pitchers parks. I definitely like Haren better than Lee going into 2009.

Victorino would be a slight upgrade from Ibanez, but it’s not enough to off-set how much better Haren could be than Lee. Victorino and Ibanez both have similar batting averages (both hit .293 in ‘08) but Ibanez has better power numbers. Yeah, you’ll get stolen bases from Victorino, a few extra runs scored and some pop, but the difference between the two just isn’t enough for me to advise pulling the trigger on this deal.

My opinion would be to decline this offer. With Haren and Ibanez you have to great, very consistently stable players. And Haren’s upside is the best of the bunch.

We’re through round nine now. Take a look back and read the write-ups for round 1, round 2,  round 3, round 4, round 5, round 6, round 7, and round 8.

• Round 9 : Pick 1(97) - @crookedpitch - Ryan Zimmerman - This is a risky pick here. He missed two months with a shoulder injury last season, and I’m looking for him to prove that he’s healed. His five home runs in the final month of the season and his .306 second half batting average tell me he’s ready to crush it in ‘09. At 24-years-old Zimmerman could re-emerge as a 20+ homer guy with a .300 average.
• Round 9 : Pick 2(98) - @Angels2717 - Michael Young - I like Young a lot and as the rounds go by, certain positions’ value considerably decreases. One of them is the shortstop position.  If you havent taken one of the top guy: Reyes, Rollins, etc. you got to take someone soon before your left with an Erick Aybar kind of player. He’ll be fine for this round.
• Round 9 : Pick 3(99) - @TheRoundtable - Ryan Doumit - Complete upside pick. Doumit was one of the few bright spots by the end of the season for the Pirates. For a team that was miserable, they produced solid fantasy numbers with Nady, Bay, McLouth, and Doumit. Doumit’s numbers didn’t drop off toward the second half. Normally, I don’t draft catchers this early, but with needing two, I felt that this was the right spot to grab one.
• Round 9 : Pick 4(100) - @fakebaseball - Francisco Rodriguez - Like many others who’ve played the game for a long time, I’m a believer in drafting closers later in the draft (and even punting closers altogether in head-to-head leagues). That said, when Rodriguez was still available in the 9th round, by this point the potential reward made this a pick worth making. Taking him in rounds 5 or 6 (where he’s typically been going) means you’re overpaying for ‘08. By round 9, he could return good value even with a less impressive ‘09. Yes, his peripherals aren’t what they once were, and yes, he’ll have Putz possibly grabbing some saves this year. But he’s also now pitching in the NL–no DH–and he’ll also be facing Florida, Atlanta, and Washington regularly.
• Round 9 : Pick 5(101) - @jefeboy - Raul Ibanez - A steady performer in a new ballpark that’s good for hitters. I’ll take that, in the 9th round. Supports my decision to wait on OF’s. I need to fill out the roster with 20HR guys like him.
• Round 9 : Pick 6(102) - @xxldaddyo - Jon Lester - The Second Half of 2008 says it all for Lester: 2.92 ERA, 1.19 WHIP 3.1:1 K:BB ratio. Along the way he became a great ground ball pitcher, and even threw a no-hitter!
• Round 9 : Pick 7(103) - @tommystv - Carlos Zambrano - Dominate at times, crazy at times. I’ll take the risk, the Cubbies have a good Offense so wins will come even when he doesn’t dominate. Note: Pitcher run continuing.
• Round 9 : Pick 8(104) - @sporer - Mariano Rivera - Wow, three pitchers in a row for me… that’s simply unheard of, but all three rate among my favorites to roster. Everyone keeps waiting for the other shoe to drop with Rivera, but he continually defies the odds. If he does just fall off a cliff performance-wise, it’ll be detrimental to all his fantasy owners, but there is nothing within his skills to suggest that’s on the horizon. He could feasibly have another 40-45 save season this year.
• Round 9 : Pick 9(105) - @therotofeed - Brad Lidge - He was the game’s most dominant closer last year, and he’s probably the only one with truly elite k/9 left on the board. I’d rather be taking batters at this point, but I can’t pass on best-in-categories. Let’s hope the Phillies stay strong and the Curse of Pujols stays away for another year.
• Round 9 : Pick 10(106) - @dowdyism - Jayson Werth - I don’t know what this “Twitter” thing is or how some of these “people” say that Jason Werth was “their pick”. I don’t know what they are talking about, but I promise I’m going to figure this internet thing out one day. In all seriousness, Werth is becoming a popular choice in mock drafts. He broke through last season with 24 HR and 20 SB in 482 PA, and a new contract should break his platoon status, thus the rise in ADP. I think he is good for another 20/20 season as a floor, and slots in nicely as my fourth outfielder.
• Round 9 : Pick 11(107) - @jasoncollette - Jose Valverde - Valverde has incredible skills as a closer and could be a top three guy if he cuts down on his homers. He knocked 6% of his FB rate last year but his HR/FB spike negated those gains.
• Round 9 : Pick 12(108) - @seniorcircuit - Brad Hawpe - I predict Hawpe to hopefully stay healthy and return more to his 2007 numbers. And if you draft him pray that he is not traded from Colorado. The lineup he is in is weaker with the loss of Holliday but Hawpe can rebound to put up a season of 80/27/95/.290 in 2009.

News out of Seattle today is that Mariners GM Bill Bavasi has been fired.  Manager John MacLaren can’t be that far behind him.  What this means to fantasy owners (aside from the M’s fans among us having a good reason to crack a beer and celebrate) is that it should mean the beginning of a youth movement in Seattle, now that Bavasi isn’t throwing every young player under the bus in an attempt to save his job.

Assuming the M’s ownership brings in a GM who is ready to build for the future (something the team hasn’t been willing to consider in the last ten years) this could mean a few interesting developments for fantasy owners:

• Jeff Clement should see time in the majors, immediately. He’s killing AAA, and could be a big surprise in the second half for fantasy owners with his Catcher eligibility. Look for him to DH primarily and get a couple starts a week behind the plate.
  Big Loser: Jose Vidro

• It’s a little up in the air what will happen until JJ Putz gets back, but Brandon Morrow is easily more valuable to the M’s as a starter than a reliever. I would expect him to get sent down to AAA to get stretched out, and then be back up in the second half to join the rotation.
  Big Winners: The M’s have liked Mark Lowe in the closer spot before, and Ryan Rowland-Smith has to be an option as well. If Morrow closes until Putz returns, look for one of these guys to take up the reigns as Putz’ backup until draft pick Josh Fields is ready.
• It wouldn’t be a surprise if Jarrod Washburn were to lose his job, whether that means a move to the bullpen or an outright release.  The M’s don’t have a lot of major-league-ready starting pitching talent in the organization (which makes giving away Cha-Seung Baekfor nothing and keeping Morrow in the ‘pen even more indefensible) but trying just about any young arm in the rotation would be better for the team in the long-run, and might even net better short-term gains than sending Washburn out there every five games.
  Big Winner:  Ryan Feierabend?

• With the team’s focus undoubtedly changing, underperforming soon-to-be free agent Richie Sexson could find himself benched or even released.  The smart move would be to move Raul Ibanez to first base full time (as his awful defense negates any offensive contributions he makes), which would open up left field for a full-time player.
  Big Winners:  Jeremy Reed (your full-time left fielder), Wlad Balentien (Right Field).  Balentien has bigger offensive upside than any young player the Mariners have in the upper minors, aside from Clement.  Giving him the rest of this season to adjust to the majors could pay huge dividends.  He’s somebody to target for ‘09 in deep keeper leagues if this happens.